Group 1 - The ADP private-sector payrolls for June reported a decline of -33K, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, significantly below the expected +100K and the previously revised +29K [1][3] - The decline in jobs was primarily driven by the services sector, which lost -66K jobs, including significant losses in Professional/Business Services (-56K) and Education/Healthcare (-52K) [2][3] - Large companies (more than 500 employees) saw a slight gain of +30K jobs, while small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) experienced a loss of -47K jobs [3] Group 2 - The current estimate for nonfarm payrolls in the upcoming Employment Situation report is +110K, but this may be revised downward following the negative ADP report [3] - The last negative ADP report in March 2023 occurred under different economic conditions, with the Federal Reserve having raised interest rates to over +5% and inflation being addressed [4] - The current job losses are predominantly in white-collar positions, which may be unexpected, and are not directly linked to the White House's deportation campaign [5] Group 3 - The upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff initiatives could impact future private-sector payrolls, with potential for recovery depending on new trade deals or tariff pauses [6] - The trailing four-month average for private-sector job growth is only +51K, insufficient to cover new retirees, contrasting sharply with the previous eight-month average of +162K [7]

Group 1 - The ADP private-sector payrolls for June reported a decline of -33K, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, significantly below the expected +100K and the revised +29K from the previous month [1][3] - Goods-producing jobs increased by +32K, while services jobs saw a decline of -66K, with notable losses in Professional/Business Services (-56K) and Education/Healthcare (-52K) [2] - Large companies (over 500 employees) added +30K jobs, whereas small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) lost -47K jobs, and medium-sized firms lost -15K jobs [3] Group 2 - The last negative ADP reading occurred in March 2023, during a different economic context with the Fed raising interest rates to over 5% and an inflation rate of 5.0% [4] - The current job losses are primarily in white-collar sectors, which may not be directly linked to the White House's deportation campaign of undocumented immigrants [5] - The upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff initiatives could impact future payrolls, with a potential recovery dependent on new trade deals or a continuation of tariff pauses [6] Group 3 - The trailing four-month average private-sector job growth is only +51K, insufficient to cover new retirees, compared to an average of +162K per month over the previous eight months [7]

Group 1 - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a notable stock within the Computer and Technology sector, which consists of 609 individual stocks and holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 5 [2] - ADP currently has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on earnings estimates and revisions, with a 0.6% increase in the consensus estimate for full-year earnings over the past 90 days [3] - Year-to-date, ADP has returned 5.9%, outperforming the average return of 5.7% for the Computer and Technology sector [4] Group 2 - ADP is part of the Internet - Software industry, which includes 173 stocks and currently ranks 47 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with the industry gaining an average of 14.8% this year, indicating that ADP is slightly underperforming its industry [6] - Investors should monitor both ADP and Adyen N.V. Unsponsored ADR, as both stocks are expected to maintain solid performance moving forward [7]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific insights or data related to companies or industries [1][2][3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Economic and Market Overview - The first half of 2025 ended with major stock market indexes at record highs, but early trading in the second half is showing a pullback due to ongoing uncertainties [1] - A significant tax bill, referred to as the "Big Beautiful Bill," is expected to pass, which would make corporate tax cuts permanent, potentially adding over $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [2] - Trade negotiations are ongoing, with the EU and Japan in detailed talks with the U.S., while a preliminary outline of a trade deal with the UK has been reached [3] Employment and Labor Market - Employment numbers are anticipated to show a slight recovery, with private-sector payrolls expected to reach around 100K and nonfarm payrolls estimated at 110K, which would offset retiring Baby Boomers [4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates, potentially benefiting industries like housing [5] Market Data and Indicators - Key economic data to be released includes final S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, Construction Spending for May, and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May, with construction spending projected to improve slightly [6] - JOLTS data is expected to show a slight decline in job openings to 7.3 million, down from 7.39 million in April, indicating a significant drop from the peak levels earlier in the year [7] - The Professional & Business Services sector is experiencing a discrepancy, with a reported increase in job openings despite a loss of positions in the previous month, suggesting potential shifts in business spending [8]

Market Performance - Market indexes are at all-time highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading, and a +20% increase from near-term lows in early April 2025 [1] - The Nasdaq has experienced a +17.2% increase in Q2 2025, marking its best performance since Q2 2020 [6] - The Dow is currently -2.7% from all-time highs, but has gained +230 points recently, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also seen increases of +20 and +120 points respectively [6] Economic Indicators - The week is significant for job-related reports, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private-sector payrolls, and the U.S. Employment Report [2] - ADP figures show a low of +37K, with negative monthly changes in Professional/Business Services (-17K), Education/Healthcare (-13K), and Trade/Transportation/Utilities (-4K) [3] - Continuing Jobless Claims reached their highest level in 3.5 years, nearing 2 million for the week [3] Upcoming Reports - Key reports expected this week include final prints on U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI, Construction spending, Factory Orders, and Auto Sales [4] - The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for June is anticipated to rise to 43.0 from 40.5, indicating improved business outlooks [5]

Group 1 - ADP is scheduled to release its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2025, before the opening of Nasdaq on July 30, 2025 [1] - A conference call will be held at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 30, 2025, featuring key executives including Maria Black, Peter Hadley, and Matthew Keating [2] - ADP will no longer publish financial results over a news wire service; instead, results will be posted on the Investor Relations section of its website [3] Group 2 - Investors and interested participants can listen to the conference call and view the accompanying slide presentation via live webcast on ADP's website [4] - The slide presentation will be available shortly before the webcast [4] - ADP focuses on designing better ways to work through innovative products and services in Human Capital Management [5]

Core Viewpoint - Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADP) is initiated with a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $296.5, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [1]. Company Overview - Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides essential cloud-based Human Capital Management (HCM) and HR outsourcing solutions for organizations of all sizes [1]. Research Methodology - Moretus Research employs a structured, repeatable framework to identify companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation [1]. - The research combines rigorous fundamental analysis with a judgment-driven process, focusing on clarity and relevance rather than complex forecasting [1]. Valuation Approach - Valuation is based on pragmatic, sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, emphasizing comparability and simplicity [1]. - The research coverage tends to favor underappreciated companies undergoing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where dispassionate analysis can lead to asymmetric returns [1]. Research Standards - Moretus Research aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1].

Summary of ADP's Investor Day Conference Company Overview - **Company**: ADP (Automatic Data Processing) - **Industry**: Human Capital Management (HCM) - **Fiscal Year 2024 Revenue**: Over $19 billion [7] - **Client Base**: 1.1 million clients, including 80% of Fortune 500 companies [7] - **Employee Payroll**: Over 42 million wage earners in more than 140 countries [7] - **Client Funds Movement**: Over $3.1 trillion annually in the U.S. [7] Core Points and Arguments Market Position and Growth - ADP is the world's largest HCM provider, emphasizing scale, dependability, and innovation as key differentiators [6][11] - The total addressable market for HCM exceeds $180 billion globally, with expected mid-single-digit growth [12] - ADP's market share has remained stable despite revenue growth, indicating significant room for expansion [13] Innovation and Technology - ADP is infusing AI into its operations to enhance product offerings and client experiences [3][20] - The company invested nearly $1.3 billion in R&D in fiscal 2024, focusing on AI as the next frontier [20] - ADP Assist, an AI-driven tool, has been recognized for its innovation and is being deployed across various functions [27] Strategic Priorities - **Best-in-Class HCM Technology**: Focus on developing innovative solutions and considering acquisitions to accelerate growth [21] - **Expertise in Outsourcing**: Providing unmatched client service across all client types [22] - **Global Scale**: Leveraging extensive data and partnerships to navigate the changing work environment [23] Client-Centric Approach - ADP emphasizes a client-first philosophy, with a commitment to understanding and addressing client needs [16] - Client satisfaction scores have increased by 40% over the past three years, reflecting strong revenue retention [29] Additional Important Insights Challenges in the HCM Industry - The industry faces challenges such as shifting demographics, rising healthcare costs, and a shrinking talent pool [15] - The regulatory landscape is continuously evolving, necessitating adaptive solutions [14] Product Portfolio and Differentiation - ADP's product offerings span from payroll to HR outsourcing, catering to businesses of all sizes [8][60] - The company is focused on creating a seamless user experience across its platforms, integrating various functionalities [61] Sales and Distribution Strategy - ADP has a large sales force of 8,500, with a significant portion of new business coming from partnerships [79][81] - The company aims to enhance sales productivity through AI tools and targeted marketing strategies [82][86] Future Outlook - ADP is optimistic about the HCM industry's growth potential and its ability to innovate and adapt to market changes [30] - The company plans to continue leveraging its scale and data to enhance product offerings and client experiences [31] Conclusion ADP's Investor Day highlighted the company's strong market position, commitment to innovation, and client-centric approach. With a focus on leveraging AI and expanding its global reach, ADP is well-positioned for future growth in the evolving HCM landscape.