Labor Market Overview - The White House announced the likely absence of the October Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report due to a government shutdown, casting doubt on the previously reported strong September data [1] - The ADP private sector jobs report, based on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million U.S. private-sector employees, is a trusted non-government source for labor data [3] Job Losses and Sector Performance - Private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, with significant losses in construction, manufacturing, professional/business services, and information services [5] - Job declines were uneven across sectors, with construction losing 9,000 jobs, manufacturing losing 18,000, and professional/business services losing 26,000, while natural resources and mining added 8,000 jobs [7] Regional Job Trends - The Northeast and South experienced steep job losses, with New England laying off 50,000, the Mid-Atlantic cutting 49,000, and the South Atlantic losing nearly 80,000 jobs; in contrast, the Midwest and West reported job gains of 45,000 and 67,000, respectively [9]

Core Insights - The labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with private employers shedding 32,000 jobs in November, contrary to expectations of a gain of 40,000 jobs [2][5][6] - This marks the third month of job losses in the last four, totaling a loss of 16,000 jobs, the worst four-month stretch since the pandemic [2][6] - The job market is transitioning from a low-hiring phase to a more concerning environment characterized by job cuts [4][5] Economic Implications - The decline in job availability is negatively impacting consumer spending, particularly among lower-income individuals [4] - The only sectors experiencing job growth are hospitality and health care, which added a combined 46,000 jobs, while other industries faced widespread job losses [5] - The recent job market data may influence Federal Reserve officials to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate spending and mitigate rising unemployment [5][6]

Employment Data - The ADP monthly jobs report indicates a decline of -32K private-sector payrolls for November, falling short of expectations for +40K and the previous month's revised +47K [1] - This marks the fourth negative month for private-sector payroll growth in the last six, with a four-month trailing average now at -4K, the first negative reading since early 2020 during the Covid pandemic [2] Small Business Impact - The losses in private-sector jobs are primarily attributed to small businesses (fewer than 50 employees), which saw a significant drop of -120K jobs, marking a post-Covid low [2] - Small businesses have experienced six lower months out of the last seven, highlighting vulnerabilities in the current labor market [2] Job Loss Breakdown - Among small businesses, companies with fewer than 20 employees lost -46K jobs, while those with 20-49 employees accounted for -74K job losses [3] - The sectors most affected include Manufacturing, which lost -18K jobs, and Information Services, which saw a decline of -20K jobs [4] Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced an average wage increase of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a higher average increase of +6.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [5] Import and Export Prices - Import and Export Prices for September remained unchanged, with imports showing a year-over-year increase of +0.3% and exports up +3.8%, the highest in nearly three years [6][7] Market Reaction - Following the release of the ADP jobs data, pre-market futures initially showed gains but turned negative, indicating a potential reaction to the economic reports [8][9] Upcoming Economic Data - Further economic indicators, including Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September, as well as final S&P Services PMI and ISM Services results for November, are expected to be released [10]

Group 1: Employment Data - The ADP monthly jobs report indicates a decline of -32K private-sector payrolls for November, falling short of expectations for +40K and the previous month's revised figure of +47K, marking the fourth negative month in the last six [1][2] - The four-month trailing average of private-sector payrolls is currently at -4K, the first negative average since the early months of the Covid pandemic in 2020 [2] - Small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) accounted for all job losses, with a significant drop of -120K jobs, representing a post-Covid low [2][3] Group 2: Job Loss Breakdown - Job losses were concentrated in small businesses, with -46K jobs lost among companies with fewer than 20 employees and -74K among firms with 20-49 employees [3] - Sectors such as Manufacturing lost -18K jobs, while Information Services and Professional/Business Services saw declines of -20K and -26K jobs, respectively [4] Group 3: Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced an average wage increase of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a higher average increase of +6.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [5] Group 4: Import and Export Prices - Import and export prices remained unchanged in September, with imports at 0.0% and exports also unchanged, reflecting a lack of significant price movement [6][7] - Year-over-year, imports increased by +0.3%, while exports rose by +3.8%, the highest in nearly three years, suggesting challenges in absorbing tariffs within the economy [8] Group 5: Market Reaction - Following the release of the ADP jobs data, pre-market futures showed muted reactions, with larger indexes shifting from positive to negative territory, indicating a potential market response to the economic reports [9][10]

Group 1 - Traders in interest rate futures have increased the odds of a Fed interest rate cut to 89% from 83.4% for the upcoming meeting [3] - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 3.75% to 4% [3] - Some Fed officials have indicated a need for a third consecutive reduction in borrowing costs due to a dimming employment outlook [3][4] Group 2 - Other central bankers have expressed concerns about inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target and prefer to keep rates steady to prevent price pressures [4] - The Beige Book report from the 12 Fed district banks noted a slight decline in employment, with half of the districts reporting weaker labor demand [5] - The ADP employment report for November highlighted a payroll cut of 32,000 jobs, with small employers (fewer than 50 workers) shedding 120,000 jobs while larger firms added 90,000 jobs [7] Group 3 - Pay for employees who remained with their employer rose by 4.4%, while those who changed jobs saw a 6.3% increase in pay [7] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has delayed the publication of the November job report to December 16, which is after the policymakers' meeting [6]

Core Viewpoint - In November, the U.S. private sector experienced a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs, contrasting sharply with previous expectations of a 20,000 job increase [1] Employment Data Summary - The revised data for October indicates an increase of 47,000 jobs in the private sector [1] - Employment in the goods-producing sector decreased by 19,000 jobs, while the service sector saw a reduction of 13,000 jobs in November [1] - Small private enterprises lost 120,000 jobs, whereas medium and large enterprises added 51,000 and 39,000 jobs, respectively [1] - The Northeast and South regions of the U.S. saw declines of 100,000 and 43,000 jobs in the private sector, while the Midwest and West regions experienced increases of 45,000 and 67,000 jobs, respectively [1] Economic Trends - The data indicates a stagnation in job creation during the second half of the year, with a downward trend in wage growth [1] - Recruitment activities in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction sectors were particularly weak in November [1] - The chief economist of the company noted that employers are facing cautious consumer sentiment and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, leading to fluctuations in the hiring market [1]

Right now, ADP employment data just crossing and it is not a positive read on the US economy. It was expected to come in with 10,000 jobs being created. Right now we're seeing a decline of 32,000 jobs.Last week was revised upwards, so we saw 47,000 jobs created versus the 42,000 initially reported. This is the 83 employment change. And this doesn't always cohere with what we see from non-farm payrolls.However, in the absence of non-farm payrolls and in the consistency of this series, this has increasing wei ...

Core Insights - US private employers experienced a loss of 32,000 jobs in November, indicating a stagnation in job creation, particularly affecting small businesses [1][2] - The hiring environment has been inconsistent, influenced by cautious consumer behavior and an uncertain macroeconomic landscape, with small businesses leading the decline in job creation [2][3] - Pay growth is also decelerating, with year-over-year pay for job-stayers rising by 4.4% in November, down from 4.5% in October, and job-changers seeing a decrease from 6.7% to 6.3% [4] Employment Trends - Job creation has been flat in the latter half of the year, with small businesses particularly struggling in November [1][2] - Manufacturing, construction, and professional services saw job losses, while education and health services added jobs, with gains primarily in mid-sized and large businesses [3] Economic Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates subdued labor demand, hiring freezes, and potential job displacement due to AI [5] - A significant portion of American workers, 69%, anticipate an increase in unemployment over the next year, reflecting a negative sentiment towards the job market [6]

Core Insights - Private sector employment decreased by 32,000 jobs in November 2025, with year-over-year pay growth at 4.4% [1] - Job creation has been stagnant in the second half of 2025, with notable weaknesses in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction sectors [1] Employment Report - Private employers lost 32,000 jobs in November 2025, with significant declines in small businesses leading the downturn [1] - Job losses by industry included: - Goods-producing: -119,000 (Natural resources/mining: 8,000; Construction: -9,000; Manufacturing: -18,000) - Service-providing: -13,000 (Trade/transportation/utilities: 1,000; Information: -20,000; Financial activities: -9,000; Professional/business services: -26,000; Education/health services: 33,000; Leisure/hospitality: 13,000; Other services: -4,000) [1] - Job changes by region showed: - Northeast: -100,000 (New England: -50,000; Mid-Atlantic: -49,000) - Midwest: +45,000 (East North Central: +41,000; West North Central: +4,000) - South: -43,000 (South Atlantic: -78,000; East South Central: +31,000; West South Central: +3,000) - West: +67,000 (Mountain: +13,000; Pacific: +54,000) [1] - Changes by establishment size indicated: - Small establishments: -120,000 (1-19 employees: -46,000; 20-49 employees: -74,000) - Medium establishments: +51,000 (50-249 employees: +31,000; 250-499 employees: +20,000) - Large establishments: +39,000 (500+ employees: +39,000) [1] Pay Insights - Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was 4.4%, down from 4.5% in October, while job-changers saw a pay increase of 6.3%, down from 6.7% [1] - Median annual pay changes for job-stayers by industry included: - Goods-producing: Natural resources/mining: 4.3%; Construction: 4.4%; Manufacturing: 4.8% - Service-providing: Trade/transportation/utilities: 4.4%; Information: 4.2%; Financial activities: 5.2%; Professional/business services: 4.2%; Education/health services: 4.3%; Leisure/hospitality: 4.5%; Other services: 4.0% [1] - Median annual pay changes for job-stayers by firm size included: - Small firms: 1-19 employees: 2.5%; 20-49 employees: 4.0% - Medium firms: 50-249 employees: 4.7%; 250-499 employees: 4.8% - Large firms: 500+ employees: 4.9% [1]

Market Performance - Major market indexes showed positive movement, with the Dow gaining +185 points (+0.39%), S&P 500 up +16 points (+0.25%), and Nasdaq increasing by +137 points (+0.59%) [1] - Bitcoin rose nearly +6% to 91.4K, positively impacting the stock of MicroStrategy (MSTR), which gained over +5% [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index experienced a slight decline of -0.17% [1] Economic Data - Private-sector payrolls for November are expected from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), with a consensus estimate of around 40K new jobs, down from 42K the previous month [2] - The labor market has shown difficulties, with no back-to-back positive ADP jobs numbers since April and May of 2025 [2] - Upcoming reports on Imports, Exports, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization are anticipated to show slight gains from the previous month [3] Earnings Reports - CrowdStrike (CRWD) reported Q3 earnings of 96 cents per share on revenues of $1.23 billion, exceeding estimates and showing over +20% year-over-year growth [4] - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat Q3 earnings expectations with 53 cents per share and record-high revenues of $1.36 billion, leading to an +11% increase in shares after market [5] - Marvell Technologies (MRVL) posted Q3 earnings of 76 cents per share on revenues of $2.08 billion, slightly above projections, but shares remained flat [6]