Company Performance - C3.ai, Inc. (AI) closed at $22.58, showing a slight decrease of -0.04% from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1] - Over the past month, C3.ai's shares have increased by 3.58%, contrasting with the Computer and Technology sector's decline of 5.52% and the S&P 500's drop of 4.29% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - The upcoming earnings report for C3.ai is expected to show an EPS of -$0.20, which represents an 81.82% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $108.31 million, indicating a growth of 25.08% year-over-year [2] Full-Year Estimates - For the full year, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of -$0.45 per share and revenue of $388.39 million, reflecting year-over-year changes of +4.26% and +29.65%, respectively [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates for C3.ai indicate a positive outlook regarding the company's business and profitability [3] Zacks Rank and Industry Performance - C3.ai currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the Zacks Rank system showing a strong historical performance, particularly for 1 stocks which have averaged an annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - The Computers - IT Services industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, ranks in the top 37% of all industries, suggesting strong performance potential [6]

Core Insights - BigBear.ai and C3.ai are both AI companies targeting government, military, and large enterprise customers, but they are not direct competitors [4] - Both companies have seen significant declines in their stock prices since going public, with BigBear.ai trading around $2 from an opening of $9.84, and C3.ai trading around $19 from an opening of $42 [2] Company Overview - BigBear.ai develops AI modules that enhance data from various sources and predict future trends, focusing on edge networks and using a case-by-case pricing model [5] - C3.ai offers a broader range of AI modules that can be integrated into various deployment environments, initially focusing on subscriptions but later introducing consumption-based fees [7][8] Financial Performance - BigBear.ai's revenue grew from $146 million in 2021 to $158 million in 2024, with a net loss increasing from $124 million to $257 million [11] - C3.ai's revenue increased from $269 million in fiscal 2023 to $311 million in fiscal 2024, but its net loss also widened from $269 million to $280 million [14] Future Projections - Analysts expect BigBear.ai's revenue to rise nearly 8% to $170 million in 2025, with a narrowed net loss of $54 million [13] - C3.ai's revenue is projected to grow by 25% to $388 million in fiscal 2025, but its net loss is expected to widen to $300 million [15] Strategic Challenges - BigBear.ai faced challenges due to the bankruptcy of Virgin Orbit, which limited its revenue recognition from that partnership [6] - C3.ai is heavily reliant on its joint venture with Baker Hughes, which accounted for 35% of its revenue in fiscal 2024, and the deal is set to expire without renewal [9] Management Issues - BigBear.ai has undergone significant leadership changes, now on its third CEO since going public [10] - C3.ai has experienced instability in its financial leadership, with four CFOs since its IPO, and is facing lawsuits from investors regarding misrepresentation of its partnership with Baker Hughes [10]

Core Viewpoint - C3.ai, Inc. has experienced a significant decline in stock value, underperforming key industry benchmarks, and facing challenges in sustaining recent performance levels due to economic uncertainties and operational losses [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - C3.ai shares have dropped 40.8% year to date, compared to a 14.9% decline in the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and a 17% decrease in the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry [3]. - The current stock price reflects a 54.8% discount from its 52-week high of $45.08 and a 19.7% premium to its 52-week low of $17.03 [4]. Group 2: Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for C3.ai's fiscal 2025 and 2026 loss per share has improved to 45 cents (from 62 cents) and 46 cents (from 55 cents), respectively, indicating a positive shift in analysts' sentiment [7]. - For fiscal 2025 and 2026, the sales growth estimates are 29.7% and 22.4%, respectively [8]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - C3.ai's partnerships with major tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon are crucial for revenue generation, with 71% of fiscal third-quarter agreements facilitated through partner engagements [9][11]. - The collaboration with Microsoft has led to 28 new deals across nine industries, with sales cycles shortened by approximately 20% [9]. - The partnership with Amazon's AWS focuses on delivering advanced enterprise AI solutions, while a new relationship with McKinsey's QuantumBlack aims to combine strategic consulting with C3.ai's technology [10]. Group 4: Revenue Growth - C3.ai reported total revenues of $98.8 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, marking a 26% year-over-year increase, with subscription revenue growing 22% to $85.7 million [15]. - Revenue from software demonstration licenses reached $28.6 million, significantly contributing to overall revenue [15]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Outlook - C3.ai is trading at a slight premium relative to its industry but at a discount to historical metrics, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5.71X, compared to the sector's 5.39X [16]. - The current stock decline presents an attractive buying opportunity, supported by strong fundamentals, strategic partnerships, and leadership in Generative and Agentic AI [18].

Core Viewpoint - C3.ai's stock has significantly declined over 40% this year due to recession fears, impacting its growth potential in the AI sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - C3.ai has been growing its business by providing turnkey AI applications, allowing companies to deploy AI without heavy R&D investments [2][3] - In the most recent quarter ending January 31, C3.ai reported revenue of $98.8 million, a 26% increase year-over-year, with subscriptions contributing $85.7 million [3] - Despite revenue growth, C3.ai reported a net loss of $80.2 million, up from $72.6 million in the previous year, raising concerns about its spending and path to profitability [3][4] Group 2: Market Valuation - C3.ai's stock is currently trading at around 7 times its trailing sales, a lower multiple compared to its historical averages, indicating a more modest premium [5][7] - The stock is nearing its 52-week low of $17.03, reflecting a significant decline in investor confidence [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The AI market is highly competitive, with numerous companies offering similar solutions, which poses a challenge for C3.ai to establish a competitive moat [8][9] - Investors are concerned about the lack of clear progress toward profitability and the potential for share dilution, making C3.ai a risky investment despite its lower stock price [9]

Core Insights - C3.ai is positioned to capitalize on a $1.3 trillion market opportunity by 2032, with a surge in demand for its AI applications across various industries [2][16] - The company has shifted to a consumption-based billing model, leading to significant revenue growth and customer acquisition without a proportional increase in losses [9][10][11] Group 1: Company Overview - C3.ai has developed over 130 customizable AI applications for 19 industries, making it a pioneer in enterprise AI since its founding in 2009 [2] - The company can deliver AI applications within six months, targeting sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, financial services, and oil and gas [4] - C3.ai's applications are compatible with major cloud platforms, facilitating easy access for businesses [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - C3.ai reported a record revenue of $98.7 million in Q3 of fiscal 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 26% [8] - The company closed 66 new deals in Q3, a 72% increase from the previous year, indicating strong demand for AI software [7] - Operating expenses increased by 11.3% to $403.8 million, but revenue growth outpaced this, resulting in a net loss increase of only 1% to $209 million [10][12] Group 3: Stock Valuation - C3.ai's stock has declined by 42% in 2025 and is down 87% from its all-time high in 2020, making it an attractive entry point for investors [3][13] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has decreased to 6.9, which is a 28% discount to its three-year average of 9.6, suggesting a favorable valuation [14]

英伟达目前（美股盘后）跌6.57%，AMD跌7.6%，博通跌4%，美光科技跌3.7%，台积电ADR跌3.2%， Palantir跌2.2%，英特尔跌1.7%，C3.ai跌1.7%，特斯拉跌1.4%，苹果跌1.3%，高通和Meta也跌超1%。 周三亚太盘初，纳斯达克100股指期货跌1.3%，标普股指期货跌0.9%，道指期货跌0.4%。 ...

Summary of Insider Transactions Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis covers insider transactions across various companies in the enterprise software sector, particularly focusing on small to mid-cap (SMID Cap) firms. Key Insights - **March 2025 Insider Transactions**: The total insider transaction value was over $900 million, with 97% being sell transactions and only 3% buy transactions, excluding transactions by >10% external shareholders [5][7] - **Sell Transactions**: 95% of sell transactions were not executed under Rule 10b5-1, which allows for pre-scheduled trades. This percentage drops to 94% when excluding sales made to satisfy tax obligations. After adjusting for Nutanix's share sales by Bain Capital, the percentage of non-10b5-1 sell transactions falls to 4% and 3% respectively [5][7] - **Buy Transactions**: All buy transactions in March were executed under Rule 10b5-1, indicating a structured approach to buying shares by insiders [5][7] Notable Transactions - **Asana (ASAN)**: CEO Dustin Moskovitz purchased 1.8 million shares worth $25.6 million, holding 37.23% of total shares outstanding [5][7] - **C3.ai (AI)**: CEO Tom Siebel sold 639,000 shares valued at $13.9 million, owning 5.5% of total shares outstanding [5][7] - **Elastic (ESTC)**: CEO Ashutosh Kulkarni sold approximately 24,000 shares for $2.2 million, while co-founder Shay Banon sold around 203,000 shares for $21.9 million, with most sales not under 10b5-1 [5][7] - **GitLab (GTLB)**: Director Matthew Jacobson sold 153,000 shares worth $8 million, not under 10b5-1 [5][7] - **Nutanix (NTNX)**: Bain Capital sold 11 million shares valued at $819.6 million, not under 10b5-1, related to the conversion of convertible notes [5][7] - **Sprinklr (CXM)**: Director Neeraj Agrawal sold 26,000 shares for $242,000, not under 10b5-1 [5][7] Year-to-Date (YTD) Insights for 2025 - **Total Transactions**: The aggregate insider transaction value for the year was $1.1 billion, with 98% being sell transactions and 2% buy transactions [7] - **Sell Transactions**: 77% of sell transactions were not executed under 10b5-1, dropping to 76% when excluding tax-related sales. Adjusting for Nutanix's sales, this number falls to 3% [7] - **Buy Transactions**: All buy transactions executed in 2025 were under 10b5-1 [7] Additional Noteworthy Transactions - **Asana (ASAN)**: Co-founder Justin Rosenstein sold 1.35 million shares for $27.9 million, with ownership declining from 1.53% to 0.57% [7] - **Elastic (ESTC)**: Similar patterns of non-10b5-1 sales were observed among executives [7] - **Nutanix (NTNX)**: Continued significant sales by Bain Capital [7] - **Sprinklr (CXM)**: Multiple executives sold shares not under 10b5-1 [7] Conclusion - The analysis indicates a trend of significant insider selling across the covered companies, with a notable lack of buy transactions, suggesting potential caution among insiders regarding future performance. The structured nature of buy transactions under Rule 10b5-1 may reflect strategic planning by insiders amidst market uncertainties.

Group 1 - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility, making it challenging for investors to adhere to sound investment principles [1] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of assessing fundamentals and valuations carefully to navigate the market effectively [1] - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in technology sectors, both on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley, which informs their insights into industry trends [1] Group 2 - The author has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017, indicating a long-standing engagement with investment analysis [1] - The author's articles are widely disseminated, being featured on popular trading platforms like Robinhood, which enhances their reach and influence [1]

Core Viewpoint - C3.ai has developed over 40 industry-specific AI solutions but faces significant challenges, leading to a 58% decline in stock value since December, suggesting it may be a stock to avoid for investors [1][12]. Company State - C3.ai's enterprise software allows organizations to quickly develop and implement AI applications, which has fostered critical partnerships, particularly in the generative AI space [2]. - The company has maintained a partnership with Baker Hughes since 2019, along with extended collaborations with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, indicating the value of its solutions [3]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of fiscal 2025, C3.ai reported over $280 million in total revenue, with a gross margin increase to 60% from 57% in the same period of fiscal 2023 [5]. - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, revenue grew 26% year over year to $99 million, marking the end of a seven-quarter streak of accelerating revenue growth [6]. - Costs and expenses in Q3 exceeded $516 million, resulting in a net loss of $209 million, which is only a slight improvement from the $206 million loss in fiscal 2024 [7]. - The company's stock-based compensation in the first nine months was $174 million, contributing to a free cash flow of nearly negative $55 million [8]. Revenue Guidance and Valuation - Fiscal Q4 revenue guidance is projected between $104 million and $114 million, suggesting a 25% growth rate at the midpoint, but this does not address the disparity between revenue and expenses [9]. - C3.ai lacks profits, resulting in no P/E ratio, and while its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7 is the lowest in over two years, the inability to cover operating expenses and negative free cash flow undermines this valuation [10]. Investment Outlook - Given the financial challenges and uncertainty surrounding the Baker Hughes partnership, it is advisable for investors to avoid C3.ai stock [12][13].

Group 1 - The market indexes have turned lower due to tariff uncertainty, with key questions remaining about the duration and impact of these tariffs on companies and consumers [1][2] - Imports constitute about 15% of U.S. GDP, and it is unlikely that spending will decrease proportionately due to tariffs, nor that all tariffs will lead to price increases [2] - The market pullback is seen as an opportunity, as corrections and pullbacks are common and often lead to subsequent gains [3][5] Group 2 - The Dow is down 14.9%, the S&P 500 is down 17.4%, and the Nasdaq is down 22.7% from their all-time highs, indicating corrections and bear markets [4] - Historical data shows that after significant declines in March, the S&P typically rises in April, with an average gain of 5.92% [8][9] - The earnings outlook for Q1'25 shows a forecasted increase of 5.9%, with subsequent quarters expected to see even higher growth, indicating strong underlying corporate performance despite recession fears [26] Group 3 - Recent inflation reports indicate a slight decrease in core inflation, with the Consumer Price Index showing 3.1% year-over-year [18][19] - The Federal Reserve is forecasting two more rate cuts this year, which could lead to increased investment in equities as interest rates fall [20] - The dramatic shift in GDP estimates for Q1'25 from positive to negative has raised concerns, but underlying economic strength is supported by job growth and other indicators [21][23] Group 4 - The current tech boom, driven by Artificial Intelligence, is expected to be transformative across various industries, similar to past technological revolutions [15] - The market outlook is bolstered by strong earnings growth forecasts and the potential for significant stock price appreciation as valuations appear attractive [26][27] - The strategies for stock selection emphasize the importance of proven methods and expert recommendations to maximize investment success [28][30]