Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for Q1 2025 were $16.5 billion, an increase of 7.8% compared to Q1 2024 [6] - Net income for the quarter was $566 million, with adjusted net income at $949 million, translating to $3.53 per diluted share [6] - Adjusted net income return on equity was 23.7% over the last twelve months [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Property liability business generated $360 million in underwriting income, with a combined ratio of 97.4%, which was 4.4 points higher than the prior year due to $3.3 billion in gross catastrophe losses [13] - The auto combined ratio was 91.3%, with average earned premium increases outpacing losses [14] - Homeowners policies grew by 2.5% year-over-year, while total property liability policies increased by 0.1% in the quarter [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New business applications for auto insurance were up 31.2% compared to the prior year, with strong growth across all distribution channels [18] - The homeowners business generated mid-teens growth in revenue, indicating a strong growth opportunity [70] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase personal property liability market share and expand customer protection [6] - A transformative growth strategy is being executed to improve customer value and lower costs, which has resulted in a 6.7-point improvement in the adjusted expense ratio [9] - The company is focused on expanding distribution channels, enhancing agent productivity, and increasing direct sales [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the industry is operating with good profitability and does not foresee aggressive rate reductions despite competitive pressures [31] - The SAVE program aims to improve customer interactions and retention, with a goal of enhancing affordability and overall customer experience [39] - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and ability to deliver value for shareholders and protection to customers [28] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of its employee voluntary benefits business for $2 billion on April 1, 2025 [8] - A $1 billion share repurchase program was instituted, with a quarterly dividend increase to $1 per share [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Views on competition and pricing aggressiveness - Management indicated that while there is a reduction in the rate of increases in auto insurance, the market remains rational with a focus on profitability [31][33] Question: Sustainability of recent improvements in policies in force - Management noted that new business levels are up significantly, and retention is stabilizing, with efforts in the SAVE program aimed at improving customer retention [36][39] Question: New applications and advertising impact - Management confirmed that new business levels are being maintained and that there is potential for further growth with product rollouts and advertising investments [44] Question: Impact of tariffs on auto insurance margins - Management stated that they will manage through tariff impacts and are prepared to adjust pricing as necessary to maintain margins [92] Question: Retention challenges and SAVE program effectiveness - Management acknowledged that retention remains a challenge but emphasized efforts to improve customer experience and affordability through the SAVE program [104][108]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the first quarter were $16.5 billion, an increase of 7.8% compared to the first quarter of 2024 [7] - Net income was $566 million, with adjusted net income at $949 million, translating to $3.53 per diluted share [7] - Adjusted net income return on equity was 23.7% over the last twelve months [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The property liability business generated $360 million of underwriting income, with a combined ratio of 97.4%, which was 4.4 points higher than the prior year due to $3.3 billion in gross catastrophe losses [14] - The auto combined ratio was 91.3%, with average earned premium increases outpacing losses [15] - Homeowners policies grew by 2.5% year-over-year, while total property liability policies increased by 0.1% in the quarter [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New business applications for auto insurance were 31.2% above the prior year, with strong growth across all distribution channels [20] - The company reported a 27% increase in personalized new business items compared to the previous year [12] - The homeowners business is experiencing mid-teens revenue growth, indicating a strong market position [72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase personal property liability market share and expand customer protection [7] - A transformative growth strategy is being executed to improve customer value and lower costs, which has led to improved expense ratios [10] - The company is focused on expanding distribution channels, enhancing agent productivity, and increasing direct sales [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the rationality of the competitive market, with no aggressive rate reductions expected [34] - The company is optimistic about sustaining new business levels and improving retention through initiatives like the SAVE program [39] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining profitability while managing potential impacts from tariffs and inflation [93] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of its employee voluntary benefits business for $2 billion [9] - A $1 billion share repurchase program was instituted, with $100 million already executed in the first quarter [76] Q&A Session Summary Question: Views on competition and pricing aggressiveness - Management noted a reduction in the rate of increases in auto insurance and characterized the market as rational, with no aggressive rate reductions expected [33][34] Question: Insights on policy in force (PIF) count and retention - Management indicated that new business levels were up significantly, and retention is stabilizing, with efforts in the SAVE program aimed at improving customer interactions [37][41] Question: Capital position and allocation strategy - Management expressed comfort with the current capital position and outlined a balanced approach to capital allocation, focusing on growth and shareholder returns [75][76] Question: Impact of California's competitive environment on bundling strategy - Management acknowledged that competitors facing challenges in California could create opportunities for the company, particularly in the auto business [82][84] Question: Retention and SAVE program effectiveness - Management emphasized the importance of addressing customer defection triggers and improving customer experience through the SAVE program [108]

Financial Performance - Allstate's total revenue increased by 7.8% year-over-year to $16.5 billion[5] - Net Income was $566 million, and Adjusted Net Income reached $949 million ($3.53 per share)[5] - The Adjusted Net Income return on equity was 23.7% over the last twelve months[5] Property-Liability Underwriting - Property-Liability underwriting income was $360 million, a decrease of $538 million compared to the prior year[10] - The Property-Liability combined ratio was 97.4, an increase of 4.4 points[10] - Auto Insurance underwriting income was $816 million with a combined ratio of 91.3[10] - Homeowners Insurance reported an underwriting loss of $451 million with a combined ratio of 112.3, impacted by catastrophe losses[10] Catastrophe Losses and Reinsurance - Gross catastrophe losses for the first quarter of 2025 totaled $3.3 billion[10, 13] - Reinsurance recoveries amounted to $1.1 billion, offsetting some of the catastrophe losses[10, 14] - The catastrophe loss ratio reached 23.8% of earned premium, surpassing 3 standard deviations above the 10-year average[13] Policy Growth and Distribution - Property-Liability policies in force increased by 0.1%, representing an increase of 19 thousand policies[17] - Homeowners policies in force increased by 2.5%, representing an increase of 185 thousand policies, offsetting a decrease in auto policies[17] - New issued applications for Property-Liability personal lines increased across all channels, with exclusive agents showing a 27.1% increase, independent agents a 31.2% increase, and direct channels a 10.0% increase[17] Investments - The investment portfolio is allocated with approximately 81% in interest-bearing assets and 19% in growth-oriented equity assets[20] - Market-based fixed income investments totaled $60.3 billion[20] Protection Services - Protection Services adjusted net income was $162 million, a 7.0x increase since 2018[24] - Protection Plans policies in force reached 39 million[24]

Core Insights - Allstate reported $16.8 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, an 8.9% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.13 billion by 1.91% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $3.53, down from $5.13 a year ago, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $2.26 by 56.19% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Combined Ratio for Property-liability was 97.4%, better than the average estimate of 98% [4] - Expense Ratio for Property-liability was 21.4%, lower than the average estimate of 22.5% [4] - Loss Ratio for Property-liability was 76%, slightly above the average estimate of 75.2% [4] - Loss Ratio for Auto was 69.3%, better than the average estimate of 71.5% [4] - Property-Liability Net Premiums Earned were $14.03 billion, a year-over-year increase of 8.7%, but below the average estimate of $14.17 billion [4] - Property-Liability Other Revenue was $488 million, a 13.5% year-over-year increase, slightly above the average estimate of $485.47 million [4] - Property-Liability Net Investment Income was $783 million, an 11.5% year-over-year increase, exceeding the average estimate of $741.90 million [4] - Allstate Health and Benefits Net Investment Income was $25 million, an 8.7% year-over-year increase, slightly below the average estimate of $26 million [4] - Allstate Health and Benefits Other Revenue was $131 million, a 2.2% year-over-year decrease, below the average estimate of $132.46 million [4] - Accident and health insurance premiums and contract charges for Allstate Health and Benefits were $487 million, a 1.9% year-over-year increase, below the average estimate of $491.66 million [4] - Corporate and Other Net Investment Income was $22 million, a 22.2% year-over-year increase, below the average estimate of $25.06 million [4] - Premiums earned by Allstate Protection for Homeowners were $3.66 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, slightly above the average estimate of $3.64 billion [4] Stock Performance - Allstate shares returned -4.2% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.2% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3]

Group 1 - Allstate reported quarterly earnings of $3.53 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.26 per share, but down from $5.13 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 56.19% [1][2] - The company posted revenues of $16.8 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.91%, compared to $15.42 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Allstate has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates two times during the same period [2][6] Group 2 - The stock has increased approximately 3.1% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by 5.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $3.22 on revenues of $17.18 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $16.94 on revenues of $69.45 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Insurance - Property and Casualty is in the top 17% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]

Financial Performance - Consolidated net income applicable to common shareholders decreased 52.4% to $566 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to higher catastrophe and realized capital losses [230]. - Total revenues increased 7.8% to $16.45 billion in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, driven by premium rate increases and higher homeowners insurance policies in force [230]. - Allstate Protection underwriting income was $364 million in Q1 2025, down from $903 million in Q1 2024, due to higher catastrophe losses of $2.20 billion compared to $731 million in the prior year [236]. - Protection Services adjusted net income was $55 million in Q1 2025, slightly up from $54 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to premium growth at Allstate Protection Plans [238]. - Allstate Health and Benefits adjusted net income decreased to $30 million in Q1 2025 from $56 million in Q1 2024, mainly due to increased benefit utilization [240]. Premiums and Underwriting - Premiums written increased 8.5% to $14.30 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting higher premiums in auto and homeowners insurance [237]. - Premiums written increased by 8.4% or $1,114 million to $14,297 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [247]. - Underwriting income decreased by 59.7% or $539 million to $364 million in Q1 2025 due to higher catastrophe losses [247]. - Catastrophe losses increased significantly to $2,202 million in Q1 2025 from $731 million in Q1 2024 [247]. - The loss ratio rose to 76.0% in Q1 2025 from 72.4% in Q1 2024, while the combined ratio increased to 97.4% from 93.0% [260]. Segment Performance - Auto premiums written increased by 5.2% or $491 million to $9,848 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [251]. - Homeowners premiums written increased by 20.1% or $579 million to $3,453 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [252]. - Other personal lines premiums written increased by 10.5% or $69 million to $729 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [257]. - Commercial lines premiums written decreased by 40.1% or $63 million to $94 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 due to strategic decisions [257]. - Premiums written in the Protection Services Segment increased by 4.8% or $30 million to $657 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [289]. Investment and Capital - Investments totaled $74.05 billion as of March 31, 2025, up from $72.61 billion as of December 31, 2024 [231]. - Book value per diluted common share increased 19.8% to $74.61 as of March 31, 2025, compared to $62.27 as of March 31, 2024 [232]. - Total capital resources increased to $30.14 billion as of March 31, 2025, up from $29.53 billion at the end of 2024 [333]. - The ratio of debt to Allstate shareholders' equity improved to 36.7% as of March 31, 2025, compared to 37.7% at the end of 2024 [333]. - The company has commitments to invest an additional $3.25 billion in limited partnership interests as of March 31, 2025 [320]. Claims and Loss Ratios - The auto loss ratio decreased by 6.1 points to 69.3% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, driven by increased earned premiums and lower non-catastrophe losses [261]. - The homeowners loss ratio increased by 31.5 points to 91.8% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to higher catastrophe losses [262]. - Catastrophe losses rose to $2.20 billion in Q1 2025, an increase of $1.47 billion from Q1 2024, with $1.06 billion attributed to California wildfires [266]. - The commercial lines loss ratio decreased by 57.0 points to 58.4% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to lower losses despite a decrease in earned premiums [264]. Future Expectations and Risks - The company expects to record a gain of approximately $625 million from the sale of its employer voluntary benefits business, which closed on April 1, 2025 [225]. - The company anticipates a gain of approximately $450 million from the sale of its group health business, expected to close in 2025 [295]. - Forward-looking statements indicate potential risks related to market conditions, regulatory changes, and operational challenges that could impact future performance [350].

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $16.5 billion, a 7.8% increase from the prior year[6] - Net income applicable to common shareholders was $566 million, down 52.4% from $1.2 billion in Q1 2024, primarily due to elevated catastrophe losses[6] - Adjusted net income was $949 million, or $3.53 per diluted share, compared to $1.4 billion in the prior year quarter[6] - Adjusted net income for the first quarter was $949 million, down from $1,367 million in the prior year quarter, reflecting a decrease in net income applicable to common shareholders from $1,189 million to $566 million[32] - Adjusted net income for the twelve months ended March 2025 was $4,488 million, compared to $1,960 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a significant increase[36] Insurance Premiums and Policies - Property-Liability earned premiums increased by 8.7% to $14.0 billion, driven by higher average premiums[8] - Total policies in force grew by 6.7% to 210.6 million, reflecting strong demand for insurance products[7] - Premiums and contract charges for health and benefits increased by 1.9%, or $9 million, compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to growth in Individual Health and Group Health[23] - Total revenues for the first quarter increased to $16,452 million, up from $15,259 million in the prior year quarter, with property and casualty insurance premiums rising to $14,698 million[28] Catastrophe Losses - Catastrophe losses for the quarter were $2.2 billion, significantly higher than $731 million in the prior year[7] - The recorded homeowners insurance combined ratio was 112.3, 30.2 points higher than the prior year, reflecting increased catastrophe losses[16] - The effect of catastrophe losses on the combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment was (15.7) for the three months ended March 2025, compared to (5.7) in 2024[39] Investment Income - Net investment income for Q1 2025 was $854 million, up $90 million from the prior year due to portfolio growth[22] - Market-based investment income rose to $719 million, an increase of $93 million, or 14.9%, compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher yields in the $63.5 billion market-based portfolio[24] - Net losses on investments and derivatives were $349 million in the first quarter, compared to losses of $164 million in the prior year quarter, primarily due to losses on fixed income securities and equity investments[24] - The total return on the investment portfolio was 1.4% for the first quarter of 2025 and 4.7% for the latest twelve months[24] Business Transactions - The sale of the Employer Voluntary Benefits business closed on April 1, 2025, generating a financial book gain of approximately $625 million[20] - The completion of the Employer Voluntary Benefits business sale and the agreement to sell the Group Health business are expected to enhance growth opportunities and create value for shareholders[25] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase program and a quarterly dividend increase to $1.00 per common share[25] - Return on Allstate common shareholders' equity for the twelve months ended March 2025 was 21.4%, up from 7.6% in 2024[36] - The adjusted net income return on Allstate common shareholders' equity for the twelve months ended March 2025 was 23.7%, up from 11.3% in 2024[36] Assets and Reserves - Total assets increased to $115,161 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $111,617 million at the end of the prior year[27] - The reserve for property and casualty insurance claims and claims expense rose to $43,835 million, up from $41,917 million in the prior year[27] Combined Ratios - The underlying combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment for the three months ended March 2025 was 83.1%, an improvement from 86.9% in 2024[39] - The combined ratio for Allstate Protection - Auto Insurance for the three months ended March 2025 was 91.3%, down from 96.0% in 2024[40] - The combined ratio for Allstate Protection - Homeowners Insurance for the three months ended March 2025 was 112.3%, compared to 82.1% in 2024, indicating a significant increase[41] - The effect of prior year non-catastrophe reserve reestimates on the combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment was 1.7 for the three months ended March 2025, compared to (0.1) in 2024[39]

Core Viewpoint - The Allstate Corporation is expected to report a significant decline in earnings for Q1 2025, with a consensus estimate of $2.27 per share, reflecting a 55.8% year-over-year decrease, despite an anticipated revenue increase of 11% to $17.13 billion [1][2]. Financial Performance Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allstate's total revenues in 2025 is $69.45 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 7.95%, while the EPS estimate for 2025 is $16.75, suggesting an 8.6% decline year-over-year [2]. - The first-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by 37.3% over the past 60 days [1]. Earnings Surprises and Predictions - Allstate has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, achieving an average surprise of 127.1% over the last four quarters [2]. - The current Earnings ESP for Allstate is 0.00%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3]. Key Business Segments - The net premiums earned are projected to grow by 11.4% year-over-year, while net investment income is expected to increase by 7.5% from $764 million [5]. - Adjusted net income from the Protection Services business is estimated to grow by 19.6% year-over-year [6]. - Underwriting income from the Auto brand is expected to reach $525.5 million, up from $351 million a year ago, with an improved combined ratio of 94.64% compared to 96% in the previous year [7]. - The underwriting loss from Commercial Lines is projected to decrease to $29 million from $70 million a year ago [8]. Cost and Expense Outlook - Total costs and expenses are anticipated to rise by more than 12% year-over-year due to increased operating costs and claims expenses, which may offset some positive growth indicators [8].

Core Viewpoint - Allstate (ALL) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.12 per share, reflecting a significant decline of 58.7% year over year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 11% to $17.13 billion [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.1% higher in the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reevaluation of their initial estimates [1][2] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Property-Liability- Net Premiums Earned' at $14.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.8% [4] - 'Property-Liability- Net Investment Income' is expected to be $742.13 million, up 5.7% from the previous year [4] - 'Property-Liability- Other Revenue' is forecasted to reach $485.47 million, indicating a 12.9% increase year over year [4] - 'Allstate Health and Benefits- Other Revenue' is estimated at $132.46 million, reflecting a slight decline of 1.2% [5] Key Ratios - The 'Combined Ratio - Property-liability' is projected at 97.6%, up from 93% in the same quarter last year [5] - The 'Loss Ratio - Property-liability' is expected to be 74.8%, compared to 72.4% in the previous year [6] - The 'Expense Ratio - Property-liability' is estimated at 22.5%, an increase from 20.6% year over year [6] - The 'Expense Ratio - Homeowners' is projected at 22.2%, compared to 21.8% last year [7] - The 'Loss Ratio - Auto' is expected to be 71.1%, down from 75.4% in the previous year [7] - The 'Combined Ratio - Homeowners' is forecasted at 106.8%, significantly higher than 82.1% reported last year [7] - The 'Combined Ratio - Auto' is projected at 94.3%, down from 96% in the same quarter last year [8] - The 'Loss Ratio - Homeowners' is expected to reach 84.6%, compared to 60.3% in the previous year [8] Stock Performance - Allstate shares have decreased by 6.9% over the past month, compared to a 4.8% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8]

Company Performance - Allstate's stock closed at $194.86, with a slight increase of +0.07% from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 2.03% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate's shares have decreased by 6.95%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 lost 3.37% and 5.07% respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - Allstate's earnings report is scheduled for April 30, 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $2.12, indicating a significant decrease of 58.67% from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $17.13 billion, reflecting an increase of 11.04% compared to the previous year [2] Full-Year Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Allstate's full-year earnings are $16.65 per share and revenue of $69.38 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -9.12% and +7.85% respectively [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Allstate are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, currently ranks Allstate as 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Allstate's Forward P/E ratio stands at 11.69, slightly below the industry average of 11.74, suggesting it is trading at a discount [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.17, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.24, indicating a more favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [8] Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 34, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [9]