Group 1 - Allstate's stock closed at $194.73, with a slight increase of +0.43% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.67% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate's shares have decreased by 6.83%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 have lost 4.45% and 6.57%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings report on April 30, 2025, is anticipated to show an EPS of $2.34, reflecting a significant decline of 54.39% year-over-year, while revenue is expected to rise to $17.13 billion, an increase of 11.04% [2] - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $16.65 per share and revenue at $69.38 billion, indicating a decline of 9.12% in earnings and an increase of 7.85% in revenue compared to the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent analyst estimate revisions are crucial as they reflect changes in short-term business dynamics, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards Allstate's operations [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Allstate at 3 (Hold), with a recent 6.42% decrease in the consensus EPS estimate [6] Group 4 - Allstate's Forward P/E ratio stands at 11.64, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 11.74, suggesting a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.17, compared to the industry's average PEG ratio of 2.11, indicating a more favorable growth expectation relative to its price [7] Group 5 - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 33, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Overview - Allstate (ALL) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 54.4%, with quarterly earnings projected at $2.34 per share, while revenues are anticipated to increase by 11% to $17.13 billion [3][12]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for April 30, and the stock may experience upward movement if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2][3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.04% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model indicates that Allstate has a negative Earnings ESP of -11.71%, suggesting a lower Most Accurate Estimate compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate [10][11]. - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, Allstate holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11][18]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Allstate exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $6.51 by delivering earnings of $7.67, resulting in a positive surprise of +17.82% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Allstate has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates on all occasions [13]. Industry Context - NMI Holdings (NMIH), another player in the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, is expected to post earnings of $1.10 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, with revenues projected at $170.29 million, up 9% [17]. - NMI Holdings has a negative Earnings ESP of -2.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a similar challenge in predicting an earnings beat [18].

Group 1 - The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is recognized for its commitment to customer care, aligning with its motto "You are in good hands" [1] - Henriot Capital emphasizes a quant-driven investment strategy, focusing on simplicity and common sense to achieve success [1] - The investment approach at Henriot Capital involves acting on model recommendations without human interference, prioritizing data-driven decisions over individual biases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariffs imposed by President Trump, particularly the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, are expected to increase car prices and insurance premiums, significantly impacting the auto insurance industry, especially companies like Progressive Corporation (PGR) and Allstate Corporation (ALL) [1]. Group 1: Progressive Corporation (PGR) - PGR is one of the largest auto insurance groups in the U.S., leading in motorcycle and boat policies, commercial auto insurance, and ranking among the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written [3]. - The company has embraced digitalization and AI, with its Snapshot program offering customized pricing, leading to competitive rates and improved policy life expectancy (PLE) across all business lines [4]. - PGR's combined ratio has averaged less than 93% over the past decade, significantly better than the industry average of over 100%, supported by prudent underwriting and favorable reserve development [5]. - The net margin has shown continuous improvement, expanding by 980 basis points in the last two years due to rising demand for personal auto insurance and effective risk management [6]. - PGR's solid cash flow allows for ongoing investments in growth initiatives, including digitalization, while enhancing book value and reducing leverage [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its offerings into homeowners and commercial insurance, with a return on equity of 33.8%, outperforming the industry average of 8.3% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's 2025 revenue and EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 16.1% and 9.8%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending upward [13]. Group 2: Allstate Corporation (ALL) - ALL is the third-largest property-casualty insurer and the largest publicly held personal lines carrier in the U.S., aiming to be a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution capabilities [9]. - The company expects an increase in total Property-Liability policies in force this year, driven by improved auto insurance policy renewal rates and new business growth [9]. - ALL's net margin has improved by 980 basis points over the last two years, supported by prudent underwriting, although it faces challenges in maintaining its combined ratio target in the mid-90s for the auto business due to rising auto claims [10][11]. - The company is focused on reducing losses, which may lead to a decline in the number of policies in force, while facing inflationary pressures and escalating repair costs [11]. - ALL's return on equity stands at 28.2%, also better than the industry average [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALL's 2025 revenues and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 2% and 7.9%, respectively, with EPS estimates also moving upward [14]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - PGR is trading at a price-to-book multiple of 5.97X, above its five-year median of 4.65X, while ALL's price-to-book multiple is at 2.51X, also above its median of 1.9X [15]. - PGR has outperformed ALL in terms of share price growth, gaining 26.3% in the past year compared to ALL's 8.1% [18]. - Based on return on equity, PGR is considered a more efficient generator of profit from shareholders' equity compared to ALL, with PGR holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and ALL a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [18].

Core Insights - Catastrophic weather events are increasingly common in Canada, with only 27% of homeowners feeling confident in their preparedness for such events [1] - Allstate's data indicates that 29% of claims over the last decade were due to major weather events, with a significant spike in claims in 2024, approximately 2.4 times higher than in 2023 [2] - The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that 2024 was the costliest year for severe weather-related losses in Canadian history, exceeding $8.5 billion [3] Preparedness Recommendations - Homeowners are advised to create an emergency plan, build an emergency kit, secure their property, prepare for wildfires, and review their insurance coverage [8] - Allstate emphasizes the importance of proactive measures to mitigate damage from severe weather, as personal items are often irreplaceable [4] Research Methodology - A Léger poll was conducted among 1,000 Canadian homeowners to assess their preparedness for extreme weather events, with a margin of error of ± 3.1% for a probabilistic sample [6]

Core Insights - The Allstate Corporation has successfully divested its Employer Voluntary Benefits business to StanCorp Financial Group for $2 billion, completing the transaction as planned within the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The divestiture resulted in a pre-tax book gain of approximately $625 million, which will enhance Allstate's capital management strategy, including a new $1.5 billion share buyback program running until September 30, 2026 [2] - Allstate is also in the process of divesting its Group Health business to Nationwide for expected proceeds of $1.25 billion, with total proceeds from both divestitures projected to reach $3.25 billion by 2025 [3][4] Strategic Focus - Allstate's divestiture strategy aims to free up capital from lower-return businesses and reinvest it into core operations, particularly in the personal property-liability sector and protection services [5] - The Property-Liability business saw an 11.2% year-over-year increase in earned premiums in 2024, driven by prudent rate hikes, while the Protection Services segment experienced a 16.7% revenue growth, primarily due to strong performance in Allstate Protection Plans and Arity [6] Market Performance - Allstate's shares have increased by 19.7% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 24.5%, and the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Allstate Corporation is well-positioned for growth due to rising premiums, an expanding protection services business, and ongoing streamlining initiatives [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Allstate has a strong earnings surprise history, exceeding estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 127.1% [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth - Net premiums earned have shown consistent growth: 13.9% in 2021, 8.7% in 2022, 10.4% in 2023, and 11.3% in 2024, driven by a diversified portfolio, strategic acquisitions, and disciplined pricing [3] - Contributions from the Property-Liability, Protection Services, and Allstate Health and Benefits segments are expected to sustain top-line growth [4] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Allstate announced an 8.7% increase in its quarterly dividend, effective April 1, 2025 [5] - The company has approved a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program, following the expiration of a previous $5 billion buyback authorization [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in total Property-Liability policies in force due to improved auto insurance policy renewal rates and ongoing new business growth [7] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - Allstate is refining its business strategy by focusing on core strengths and divesting underperforming segments, which has led to a 160 basis point improvement in the property-liability adjusted expense ratio year over year in 2024 [8]

Group 1 - The Allstate Corporation has successfully completed a multi-year turnaround through effective cost-cutting and business efficiency measures [1] - The years 2022 and 2023 were particularly challenging for the company [1] Group 2 - The company is recognized as one of the largest property and casualty insurance firms in the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - Allstate has recently gained attention as one of the most searched stocks, with a notable performance compared to the broader market and its industry [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, Allstate is expected to report earnings of $3.98 per share, reflecting a decrease of -22.4% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate change of -3.8% over the last 30 days [5]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $18.62, indicating a slight increase of +1.6% from the previous year, with a minor change of -0.2% in the last month [5]. - For the next fiscal year, the earnings estimate is $21.64, suggesting a growth of +16.2% year-over-year, with an increase of +1.8% in the past month [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $17.13 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of +11% [9]. - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimates are $69.64 billion and $74.95 billion for the next fiscal year, indicating changes of +8.3% and +7.6%, respectively [9]. Last Reported Results and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Allstate achieved revenues of $16.71 billion, a year-over-year increase of +12.1%, with an EPS of $7.67 compared to $5.82 a year ago [10]. - The reported revenues were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing a surprise of -0.01%, while the EPS surprise was +17.82% [11]. - Allstate has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters and topped revenue estimates three times during this period [11]. Valuation - Allstate is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [15]. - The evaluation of valuation multiples such as P/E, P/S, and P/CF is essential to determine if the stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued [13][14]. Conclusion - The current Zacks Rank of 3 suggests that Allstate may perform in line with the broader market in the near term, despite the market buzz surrounding the stock [16].

Group 1: Catastrophe Losses - The Allstate Corporation reported catastrophe losses for February 2025 amounting to $92 million, or $73 million after-tax, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.17 billion, or $922 million after-tax when combined with January's losses [1] - Catastrophe losses negatively impact underwriting profits and the combined ratio, leading to potential strain on margins for property and casualty (P&C) insurers [2] - In 2024, total catastrophe losses reached $5 billion, while P&C insurance premiums earned increased by 11.2% year over year [3] Group 2: Policy Updates - Allstate's auto policies in force increased to 24.89 million in February 2025, a 0.2% increase from January, but a 0.9% decline from February 2024 [4] - Homeowners policies in force rose to 7.5 million, reflecting a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year growth [4] - Personal lines policies in force slightly increased to 4.873 million, marking a 0.1% month-over-month increase and a 0.4% year-over-year increase [5] - Commercial lines policies in force decreased to 196,000, a 3.9% decline from January and a 29% decrease from February 2024 [6] - Overall, Allstate had 37.5 million policies in force at the end of February 2025, a 0.2% increase from the prior month but a 0.3% decrease from the same period last year [7] Group 3: Share Price Performance - Allstate's shares have increased by 27.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 24.8% [8] Group 4: Competitor Analysis - Competitors in the P&C insurance space include The Hanover Insurance Group, Old Republic International Corporation, and Horace Mann Educators Corporation, with varying Zacks Ranks indicating their investment potential [9] - Hanover Insurance has shown strong earnings performance, with a 21.74% average surprise over the last four quarters and a projected 7.7% improvement in 2025 earnings [10] - Old Republic has consistently outperformed estimates, with a 37.25% average surprise and a projected 5% improvement in 2025 earnings [11] - Horace Mann's earnings have surpassed estimates in two of the last four quarters, with a projected 21.7% improvement in 2025 earnings [12] - In the past year, shares of Hanover Insurance, Old Republic, and Horace Mann have gained 33.2%, 26.5%, and 16%, respectively [13]