Group 1: Market Overview - The obesity drug market is projected to be worth $200 billion by 2031, presenting a significant growth opportunity for healthcare companies [1] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are currently the leaders in the GLP-1 weight loss drug space, generating billions in revenue from their approved products [11] Group 2: Clinical Trials and Drug Development - Amgen's MariTide, a monthly injection GLP-1 drug, has shown potential for weight loss of around 20% after one year in Phase 2 trials [6] - Recent Phase 2 trial results raised concerns due to a 27% discontinuation rate at the highest dosage because of gastrointestinal issues, although a slower dosage increase reduced this rate to less than 8% [6][7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The success of GLP-1 treatments hinges on patient tolerance; companies with better-tolerated treatments are likely to emerge as winners in the market [10] - If MariTide does not address side effect concerns, demand may be weak compared to established products from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk [11] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Amgen's stock was previously seen as an underrated growth opportunity, but recent data has led to a more cautious investment stance [12] - For investors seeking GLP-1 opportunities, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are currently more favorable due to their proven products and potential for share price increases [13]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced mixed results on the first trading day of July, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining by -0.11% and -0.82% respectively, while the Dow and Russell 2000 increased by +0.91% and +0.94% respectively [1] - A rotation occurred in the market, with tech stocks lagging after a strong first half of 2025, while healthcare stocks led, exemplified by Amgen (AMGN) gaining +4% and Merck (MRK) up +3.4% [2] Economic Indicators - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May reported 7.8 million job openings, exceeding expectations of 7.3 million, with job quits at 3.3 million and layoffs/discharges at 1.6 million [4] - The highest job openings were in Accommodation/Food Service (+314K) and Finance/Insurance (+91K), while the Federal Government saw a decrease of -39K jobs [5] - Manufacturing data showed stronger than expected results, with S&P final Manufacturing PMI at 52.9 and ISM Manufacturing at 49.0%, while Construction Spending for May fell to -0.3% [6] Company Performance - Constellation Brands (STZ) reported Q1 earnings of $3.22 per share on revenues of $2.52 billion, missing estimates of $3.38 per share and $2.57 billion, attributed to softer consumer demand in wine and beer sales, with shares down -24% year to date [7]

Core Insights - Amgen's stock rose over 4% following positive news regarding its investigational stomach cancer drug, bemarituzumab, which outperformed the S&P 500 index that slid by 0.1% [1][2] Group 1: Drug Development - Bemarituzumab, in combination with chemotherapy, met its primary endpoint of overall survival in a phase 3 clinical trial, showing favorable results compared to patients receiving only a placebo [2][4] - The study involved 547 patients with unresectable locally advanced or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer, highlighting the significance of the drug in addressing a major health issue, as gastric cancer is the fifth-leading cause of cancer-related death globally, with over 650,000 fatalities [4] Group 2: Analyst Reactions - Analysts reacted positively to the trial results, with Piper Sandler's David Amsellem maintaining an overweight (buy) recommendation and setting a price target of $328 per share, indicating confidence in the drug's potential despite some concerns [5] - The overall sentiment among analysts suggests that Amgen may be on the verge of a successful drug launch, with optimism surrounding the advancements in cancer treatment [6]

Group 1: Apple - Apple faces challenges due to potential tariffs from China, which could increase costs and reduce margins and earnings [3] - The company generated significant free cash flow of $98.5 billion over the trailing-12-month period, allowing for production shifts and domestic manufacturing enhancements [4] - Apple's strong brand name enables it to pass on higher manufacturing costs to consumers without losing market share [5] - The services segment, with over 2 billion devices and more than 1 billion paid subscriptions, is a key growth area that generates higher margins than hardware [6] - Apple is investing in fintech initiatives like Apple Pay, which are expected to yield returns in the future [7] - Despite a 19% decline in shares this year, Apple remains attractive for long-term growth investors due to its competitive advantages and culture of innovation [8] Group 2: Amgen - Amgen is pursuing new blockbuster medicines, but faced a setback with its weight management drug MariTide in a phase 2 clinical trial [9] - MariTide showed an average weight loss of about 20% after 52 weeks, with a convenient monthly dosing schedule that could appeal to patients [10] - The company reported a 9% year-over-year revenue growth to $8.1 billion in the first quarter, with adjusted earnings per share rising 24% to $4.90 [11] - Amgen has a robust pipeline with several dozen programs that are expected to lead to new approvals and label expansions [12] - The company has increased its dividend by 750% since initiating payouts in 2011, with a current forward yield of over 3.4% [12] - Despite recent underperformance, Amgen's solid underlying business could provide strong returns and consistent dividend growth for long-term investors [13]

Core Viewpoint - Amgen is competing in the rapidly growing obesity drug market, which is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with its drug MariTide being a key focus in this race [1]. Company Overview - Amgen is developing MariTide, a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, designed for convenient monthly dosing via an autoinjector, distinguishing it from competitors' weekly injection options [2]. - In phase II studies, MariTide demonstrated an average weight loss of approximately 20% over 52 weeks in obese or overweight individuals without type II diabetes, although this was at the lower end of investor expectations [3]. - Amgen has initiated two phase III studies for MariTide as part of its MARITIME program, with additional studies planned for 2025 targeting various cardiovascular conditions [4]. Competitive Landscape - The obesity drug market is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Viking Therapeutics developing their own candidates, such as VK2735, which is being evaluated in late-stage studies [6]. - Other major pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Merck, and AbbVie, are also entering the obesity space, potentially challenging the market positions of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [7]. Financial Performance - Amgen's stock has increased by 8.9% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average decline of 0.7% [8]. - The company's shares are currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.26, which is lower than the industry average of 14.87 and below its five-year mean of 13.77 [10]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have seen upward revisions, with the consensus for 2025 rising from $20.57 to $20.82 per share and for 2026 from $21.13 to $21.29 per share [11].

Efficacy of MariTide - MariTide demonstrated strong efficacy with up to approximately 20% average weight loss without a plateau at 52 weeks[9, 84] - Up to approximately 98% of patients without Type 2 diabetes lost ≥5% of their body weight[29] - Up to approximately 99% of patients with Type 2 diabetes lost ≥ 5% of their body weight[38] - In adults with obesity WITH Type 2 Diabetes, MariTide demonstrated an impressive up to approximately 17% average weight loss at 52 weeks without a weight loss plateau[35] Cardiometabolic Improvements - In adults with obesity WITH Type 2 Diabetes, MariTide 420 mg monthly resulted in a -22% change in HbA1c, -58 mg/dL in Glucose, -11 mmHg in Systolic blood pressure, -28% in Triglycerides, and -72% in hs-CRP from baseline to week 52[41] - In adults with obesity WITHOUT Type 2 Diabetes, pooled 420 MariTide dose arms resulted in - 11 mmHg in Systolic blood pressure, - 5% in LDL-C, - 19% in Triglycerides, and - 53% in hs-CRP from baseline to week 52[44] Tolerability and Dosing - With one-step dose escalation in the Phase 2 study, the vomiting incidence was reduced and the discontinuation rate due to GI AEs was low at 8%[51] - Dose escalation significantly improves tolerability without compromising weight loss efficacy[9, 84] - Two-step dose escalation in the Phase 1 Low Dose Initiation study further reduced vomiting incidence with no discontinuation due to GI AEs[51] - In the Phase 1 Low Dose Initiation study, the mean baseline weight was 1006 kg[70]

Core Insights - Amgen Inc announced full results from Part 1 of the Phase 2 study of MariTide, a long-acting peptide-antibody conjugate administered subcutaneously [1] Efficacy Results - In the Phase 2 study, MariTide demonstrated an average weight loss of approximately 20% in individuals with obesity without Type 2 diabetes (T2D), compared to 2.6% in the placebo group, and about 17% in individuals with obesity with T2D, compared to 1.4% in the placebo group [2] - Weight loss had not plateaued by 52 weeks, indicating potential for further reduction [2] - MariTide also showed a reduction in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) of up to 2.2% in obese and T2D patients [3] - Improvements were noted in cardiometabolic measures, including waist circumference, blood pressure, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and select lipid parameters [4] Safety and Tolerability - No new safety signals were identified, and tolerability was consistent with the GLP-1 class, with gastrointestinal (GI) related adverse events being the most frequently reported, mostly mild to moderate [5] Study Progression - Complete results from the Phase 1 pharmacokinetics low dose initiation study were presented, showing an overall incidence of vomiting of 24.4% for one dose group and 22.5% for another, with no discontinuations due to GI adverse events [6][7] - The Phase 3 MARITIME program has been initiated, which is a 72-week chronic weight management study evaluating safety, efficacy, and tolerability in participants with obesity or overweight, with and without T2D [8] Future Studies - Amgen plans to initiate additional Phase 3 studies for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and obstructive sleep apnea in 2025 [9] Analyst Insights - Analysts express mixed views on the treatment policy estimand weight loss data, with some believing that reducing discontinuations through additional titration could yield Phase 3 results near 20% [9] - Questions remain regarding the potential for increased GI adverse events with expanded dosing intervals beyond every four weeks [10] Stock Performance - Following the announcement, Amgen's stock rose by 1.96% to $277.78 [10]

Group 1 - Amgen Inc. held a special conference call on June 23, 2025, at 5:30 PM ET, featuring key executives including Justin Claeys, Jay Bradner, Susan Sweeney, and Murdo Gordon [1][2][3] - The call was part of the American Diabetes Association's 85th Scientific Session, indicating the company's focus on diabetes-related research and development [2][3] - An investor presentation was made available during the call, suggesting a structured approach to communicating financial and strategic information to stakeholders [3]

Company Performance - Amgen's stock price ended at $272.44, reflecting a -5.84% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.96% [1] - Prior to the recent trading session, Amgen's shares had increased by 6.5%, outperforming the Medical sector's decline of 0.85% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [1] Financial Projections - Amgen's upcoming earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $5.21, indicating a 4.83% increase from the same quarter last year, with revenue expected to reach $8.86 billion, a 5.59% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [2] - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $20.82 per share and revenue of $35.22 billion, reflecting changes of +4.94% and +5.36% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Amgen are crucial as they indicate changing near-term business trends, with positive revisions seen as a favorable sign for the business outlook [3][4] - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimate changes, currently ranks Amgen at 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having increased by 0.16% in the past month [5] Valuation Metrics - Amgen has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.9, which is lower than the industry average of 19.6, suggesting that Amgen is trading at a discount compared to its peers [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.62, while the average PEG ratio for Medical - Biomedical and Genetics stocks is 1.36, indicating a higher valuation relative to expected growth [7] Industry Context - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which includes Amgen, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 89, placing it in the top 37% of over 250 industries, suggesting a favorable performance outlook [8]

Obesity Drug Market & Competition - Amgen's once-monthly weight loss shot, Maritide, showed patients without type 2 diabetes losing an average of 20% of their body weight after one year, but with a high rate of side effects and discontinuations [1] - Eli Lilly appears to be leading the obesity drug race with a safe oral candidate and an injectable (amalin) that provides weight loss with less muscle mass loss [2] - Novo Nordisk is facing challenges with disappointing Kaggarma data, while Eli Lilly is presenting positive results [2] - Novo Nordisk currently holds 33% of the market share, but Eli Lilly's oral data looks promising [4] - The market may not be seeking a 25% weight loss if other options offer around 22% [5] Amgen's Valuation & Pharma Sector - Amgen's stock dropped almost 6% after disappointing results for its weight loss shot [1] - Amgen is trading at approximately 12-13 times next year's numbers, which may not be considered cheap given the current pharma multiples and revenue cliffs [7][8] - The average pharma multiple is around 10 [7] - Over 50% of revenue for companies like Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb will disappear by the end of the decade [8] Biotech & M&A - Biotech has had a decent run, with potential catalysts for M&A activity [9] - Despite potential asset quality concerns, increased M&A activity is expected in the biotech sector due to revenue degradation at the pharma level [11] - Big Pharma companies need to pursue M&A, with Pfizer, having spent $60 billion since the pandemic, actively seeking more assets, potentially in the obesity area [12]