TMTB will be on vacation from 6/30 - 7/11. This is our last post until then. TMTB 将于 6 月 30 日至 7 月 11 日期间休假, 本次为休假前 最后一期内容。 Good morning. QQQs +50bps as risk on continues helped by some positive trade news (US -china deal from Geneva/London was signed and Lutnick said 10 separate trade agreements possible in near future). BTC -80bps. Yields are ticking up 2-3bps across the curve. Fed expects continue to price in ~60bps worth of cuts this year. 早安。QQQ 指数上涨 50个基点,风险偏好持续升温,部分 | 得益于积极的贸易消息(中美在日内瓦/伦敦签署协议, Lutnic ...

USA | Internet Equity Research June 24, 2025 Cannes 2025: Creative Disruption in the AI Era We tuned in remotely to the annual Cannes Lions Festival of Creativity, which brings together the top advertising & marketing leaders. We left encouraged by AI's ability to innovate ad formats & performance by streamlining creative production and campaign execution. We are bullish on META, GOOGL, & AMZN's position to benefit as advertisers & marketers embrace AI to reach broader audiences across more formats with the ...

《大钱：如何选择成长股》 （美）弗雷德里克·R.科布里克 著 卢 斌 张小敏 译 中国人民大学出版社 2025年4月出版 ◎潘楷昕 2015年深秋，明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯，52岁的普通家庭主妇安妮·约翰逊正在整理父亲去世后留下的 遗物。书房的角落里，她在一个尘封的老式保险箱底部，发现了三张泛黄的股票证明书。当她拿起手机 查询这些股票现值时，眼前的数字让她惊讶得差点滑落手机。原来，父亲早在1970年、1981年和1986年 分别购入沃尔玛、家得宝和微软的股票，每只股票仅投资1000美元。如今，这些股票的总市值已超过 280万美元，增长近940倍。更让她惊奇的是，她的父亲罗伯特并不是华尔街精英，只是一位普通高中数 学教师。翻阅父亲留下的投资日记，安妮发现他的"致富秘诀"出奇简单：找到几家卓越公司，买入股 票，然后在接下来30多年里对市场的惊涛骇浪充耳不闻，只是静静持有。 这个令人惊叹的真实故事，充分诠释了弗雷德里克·R.科布里克的核心投资理念：长期持有卓越企业。 在长达34年的基金经理生涯中，科布里克管理的资产年均回报率达18.8%，几乎是同期标普500指数的 两倍。他执掌的"道富研究资本基金"被《今日美国》评为 ...

There are multiple reasons to believe that stocks are overvalued right now, generally speaking, motivating me to move on from some old duds in my portfolio.For starters, consider the market for initial public offerings (IPOs). Companies usually wait to go public until market conditions heat up. High stock valuations allow IPO companies to raise more money. After below-average IPO years in 2022, 2023, and 2024, this year is shaping up to be above-average for new listings.The rise in IPO stocks in 2025 sugges ...

Core Insights - The report reveals that over 61% of American adults have used AI in the past six months, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior towards AI adoption [4][8] - Despite the high usage rates, only 3% of users are willing to pay for AI services, leaving a substantial market gap of $420 billion [8][11] - The report emphasizes that personalized scenarios with low AI penetration are key opportunities for entrepreneurs to explore [3][7] Market Overview - The consumer AI market has reached a size of $12 billion, with an estimated 1.8 billion global users, of which 500 to 600 million are daily users [4][11] - The report highlights a stark contrast between the high user base and low monetization, with only 3% of users converting to paid services [11][12] - The enterprise AI market has seen a significant increase in spending, reaching $13.8 billion, which is over six times the previous year [11] User Demographics - The report identifies surprising user demographics, showing that Millennials (ages 29-44) are the heaviest users of AI, contrary to the expectation that younger generations would dominate [13][16] - Parents are emerging as "super users," with 79% having used AI, and 29% using it daily, significantly higher than non-parents [22][26] - The report notes that AI usage is highest among students and high-income households, with 85% of students using AI tools [17][18] Usage Patterns - AI is predominantly used for routine tasks, with email writing being the most common application at 19% usage among American adults [47][49] - The report categorizes AI applications into five core areas: Routine Tasks, Physical and Mental Health, Learning and Development, Connection, and Creative Expression [42][44] - Despite the broad range of applications, the depth of AI adoption in any single task remains shallow, indicating that AI is not yet a daily necessity for most users [50][51] Opportunities for Growth - The report identifies significant opportunities in high-frequency, high-friction, and high-trust tasks where AI can provide substantial value [75][81] - Areas such as health management, financial management, and personalized learning show low AI adoption rates despite high demand, indicating potential market gaps [82] - The report suggests that specialized tools that address specific user needs could thrive in the current landscape dominated by general AI assistants [37][41] Future Trends - The report anticipates a shift towards professional tools becoming mainstream, moving away from general assistants [93] - It predicts that future AI will transition from task-oriented to workflow automation, allowing for more complex processes to be managed by AI [93] - The emergence of social AI tools that facilitate connections and relationships is also highlighted as a growing trend [93]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors with strong growth certainty in the first half of the year, particularly AI-PCB, computing hardware, semiconductor self-sufficiency, the Apple supply chain, and AI-driven industries [4][34]. Core Insights - The upcoming release of Grok 4 is anticipated to exceed expectations for Q2 performance, with significant advancements expected in code generation and understanding [1]. - The rapid development of ASIC chips by companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta is expected to drive strong demand for AI-PCB, with a projected increase in the number of ASIC chips exceeding 7 million by 2026 [1]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust upward trend, with specific segments such as storage chips and AI-PCB showing promising growth [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the strong performance of AI-PCB companies, with many experiencing full production and sales, leading to high growth expectations for Q2 and Q3 [1][4]. - The semiconductor materials and components sectors are also expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI-related products [4][22]. 2. Key Segments 2.1 Consumer Electronics - Xiaomi has launched its first AI glasses, with various pricing tiers, indicating a growing market for AI-integrated consumer products [5][6]. 2.2 PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by demand from home appliances, automotive, and consumer electronics, with expectations for substantial growth in Q2 [8]. 2.3 Components - The demand for components such as MLCCs and inductors is expected to rise due to upgrades in AI devices, with a notable increase in usage and pricing [20]. 2.4 IC Design - The storage segment is projected to see price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [22][25]. 2.5 Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic production and self-sufficiency due to geopolitical factors [26][30]. 3. Company Focus - Companies such as 生益科技, 胜宏科技, and others are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the AI-PCB and computing hardware demand [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers like 北方华创 and 中微公司 in the context of increasing self-sufficiency [37][40].

他还无意中为这些建议的股票群体创造了一个新缩写——TAMPON，特指特斯拉（Tesla）、亚马逊 （Amazon）、微软（Microsoft）、帕兰提尔（Palantir）、甲骨文（Oracle）和英伟达 （Nvidia）。 因此，我在星期天市场开盘前将艾夫斯的建议作为基准进行对比。这为一场引人入胜的AI对抗人类 的表现比拼奠定了基础。ChatGPT的深度研究推荐是否能够超越TAMPON交易？ 导语 ：这对ChatGPT的预测能力来说是一次相当严厉的批评。 在星期天早晨，在美国轰炸伊朗引发的地缘政治冲击后，我转向了ChatGPT的深度研究工具。我要 求它花三个小时分析局势，并提出五个美国股票交易建议，预测能够在本周四之前赚钱。 我是在亚洲市场开盘前提出这一请求的，因此该工具必须在几乎没有实时市场数据的情况下做出对 未来的预测。 这是一次真正的测试，看看AI模型和聊天机器人是否能够生成有价值的新见解，还是仅仅重复互联 网中已有的信息。 深度研究工具给出了一个精心编写的报告，预测了全球"风险规避"反应，包括美国股市下跌、油价 飙升以及资金流向更安全的证券，如美国国债、美元和黄金。它还提出了五个具体的交易建议，旨 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong momentum in AI development both domestically and internationally, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector [4][43] - OpenAI has opened access to its deep research model API, providing developers with powerful tools for tasks requiring advanced reasoning and real-time information [3][46] - The Hong Kong government has introduced a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which may enhance financing options for companies in China [4] Market Review - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, the ChiNext Index increased by 5.69%, and the CSI 300 Index saw a 1.95% rise. The Hang Seng Tech Index and Nasdaq Index both experienced gains of 4.06% and 4.25%, respectively [2][23] - The AI index increased by 5.24%, while the computer index rose by 7.7%, indicating strong performance in these sectors [23] AI Developments - OpenAI's deep research model API is now available, which includes features like automated web search and data analysis, enhancing the capabilities for developers [3][43] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen launched a new multimodal model, Qwen VLo, which is designed for precise control in generating long text passages [4][45] - Tencent's Hunyuan-A13B model has been released, boasting 80 billion parameters with a focus on efficiency and cost-effectiveness [4][44] Semiconductor Sector - Micron reported a revenue of $9.301 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 15.5% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 36.56% year-over-year increase, with DRAM revenue reaching a historical high [7][48] Automotive Sector - Tesla's Model Y has achieved fully autonomous delivery from factory to customer, marking a significant milestone in self-driving technology [8] E-commerce Developments - Amazon plans to expand its same-day and next-day delivery services to over 4,000 small towns and rural communities in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with an investment of approximately $4 billion [9]

Core Insights - The integration of AI into various sectors is accelerating, with significant investment opportunities in leading AI companies [1] Company Summaries - **Nvidia**: A leading semiconductor company known for its GPUs, which are essential for AI applications and data centers. Nvidia consistently generates strong free cash flow, making it a key stock for AI exposure [3] - **Alphabet**: The parent company of Google, Alphabet integrates its large language model, Gemini, into various products, enhancing its AI capabilities. It also offers extensive AI services through Google Cloud [4] - **Microsoft**: Known for its software, Microsoft provides AI exposure through its generative AI chatbot, Copilot, and its cloud platform, Microsoft Azure. It is also a major investor in OpenAI [5][6] - **Meta Platforms**: Recognized for Facebook, Meta has developed AI tools like Meta AI and invested $14.3 billion in Scale AI to expand its AI capabilities [7] - **Broadcom**: A semiconductor leader with strong ties to AI, Broadcom reported over $4.4 billion in AI semiconductor revenue for Q2 2025, a 46% year-over-year increase [8] - **Amazon**: Transitioned from a bookseller to a cloud computing powerhouse with Amazon Web Services (AWS), which achieved a $115 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2024 [9][10] - **Palantir Technologies**: A software company focused on data integration and analysis, Palantir ended Q1 2025 with $5.4 billion in cash and no debt, consistently generating strong free cash flow [11] - **Taiwan Semiconductor**: Operates a dedicated IC foundry model, producing semiconductors for clients like Nvidia. AI accelerators contributed "close to mid-teens percent" of its total revenue in 2024 [12][13] - **Tesla**: Known for electric vehicles, Tesla is advancing in AI with autonomous driving capabilities and reported about $5 billion in AI-related capital expenditures in 2024 [14][15] - **CoreWeave**: Provides AI computing infrastructure and reported a revenue of $982 million in Q1 2025, a 420% year-over-year increase, driven by high demand for its cloud platform [16]

Core Points - Jeff Bezos plans to sell $5.4 billion worth of Amazon shares, specifically 25 million common shares, with the transaction scheduled for June 27, 2025 [1][4][5] - The sale is part of a broader trading strategy that will continue until May 29, 2026, and follows Amazon's first-quarter earnings report showing a 9% revenue growth to $155.7 billion and a profit of $17.1 billion [4][6] - Bezos currently holds approximately 9.6% of Amazon's outstanding shares and has sold over $13 billion worth of stock in 2024 alone to fund various ventures [5][6] Company Performance - Amazon's stock is performing well, remaining above the $200 mark, with a recent increase of 2.85% to $223 [7] - Year-to-date, Amazon's stock has risen approximately 1.4% [7] - Wall Street analysts are optimistic, with an average 12-month price target of $243.24, indicating a potential upside of 12.03% [7]