来源：尧望后势 一、春节假期全球资产整体上涨，美股、韩股、贵金属、原油全线走强 1． 港股收跌、A50期货持平，新旧科技资产表现分化 春节假期（2月15日至2月21日），港股收跌、富时中国A50期货持平，整体走势分化。恒生科技指数回 落2.8%，恒生指数回落0.6%，富时中国A50期货上涨0.3%。分行业看，假期期间，港股能源、原材料、 工业表现较好，分别上涨3.86%、2.97%、1.25%，非必需性消费、信息科技业、必需性消费表现较差， 分别回落3.00%、2.23%、1.31%。 2． 全球股票市场上涨，韩国股市领涨 春节假期（2月15日至2月21日），MSCI全球指数上涨1.0%，MSCI发达市场指数上涨1.0%，MSCI新兴 市场指数上涨0.8%。其中，美国三大股指，纳斯达克指数上涨1.5%，标普500指数上涨1.1%，道琼斯指 数上涨0.3%。欧洲方面，法国DAX40指数2.5%，英国富时100指数上涨2.3%，德国DAX指数上涨 1.4%。亚洲市场方面，韩国综合指数上涨5.5%，日经225指数回落0.2%，印度Nifty指数上涨0.4%。 1． 美国最高法院裁定IEEPA关税违法，特朗普依据12 ...

Core Insights - Walmart and Amazon are experiencing divergent trends in the retail market, with Amazon's market value exceeding Walmart's by more than double [1][2] - Amazon's valuation is significantly influenced by its cloud computing segment, AWS, which is benefiting from increased demand for AI computing [2] - Walmart's stock has risen as it is perceived to be less affected by AI developments, achieving a market valuation surpassing $1 trillion [2] Walmart Performance - Walmart is regaining market share, attracting more middle-class shoppers, with a revenue growth of 4.9% in Q4 and 5.1% for the full year on a constant currency basis [5] - Comparable sales increased by 4% for the quarter and 5.1% for the full year, bolstered by a 24% growth in its e-commerce business [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) rose by 13.3% last year, with free cash flow reaching $14.9 billion, up from $12.7 billion the previous year [7] - Despite strong results, Walmart's guidance for the upcoming year is seen as underwhelming, with expected sales growth of only 4% [7][10] Amazon Performance - Amazon's capital expenditure of $200 billion for 2026 has raised concerns among investors, despite strong Q4 results [11] - AWS revenue growth accelerated to 24% last quarter, indicating strong demand that continues to outstrip supply [12] - Amazon's advertising business has been a key growth driver, contributing to improvements in operating margins [11] - The stock trades at about 26 times forward earnings estimates, which is considered attractive compared to Walmart's valuation [15]

另一边，段永平在雪球官方披露的2025年Q4美股持仓，同样有明确减仓动作：核心重仓股苹果减持7.09%，和巴菲特的操作形成了奇妙的呼应。 看到"减仓""清仓"就慌，属实是普通人的本能反应，但咱得掰扯清楚，这可不是拍脑袋的"撤退"，而是大佬们的精准调仓。 巴菲特减仓后，苹果依旧是伯克希尔第一大持仓，市值超619亿美元；清仓谷歌、减持亚马逊，更多是对估值与赛道的再权衡，而非看空整个市场。 段永平减苹果的同时，反手增持英伟达1110.62%，还新进多家AI产业链公司，属于"腾挪仓位"，不是"清空离场"。 说白了，两位大佬的操作，是"优化组合"，不是"仓皇跑路"。 突发大消息！巴菲特、段永平，集体减仓撤退了？ 刚沏好一杯热乎的陈皮茶，随手点开财经资讯，两条重磅调仓消息直接撞进眼里，连茶烟都晃了晃。投资圈里顶流级别的两位大佬——被全世界股民当"投 资教科书"的巴菲特，还有被网友亲切叫"段菲特"的段永平，居然在同一周期里齐刷刷动手减仓，这波操作默契得像提前通了气，让无数跟着抄作业的普通 投资者心里打鼓：难道市场要变天，大佬们要提前"撤退"离场了？ 先把实锤数据摆上台，全是官方可查的硬信息，半点不掺水。 美国SEC官网披露 ...

Core Insights - Generative AI is viewed as a transformative technology by Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy, indicating its potential to significantly enhance customer experiences across the company [1] - Elon Musk predicts that humanoid robots could create a market worth $250 trillion by 2040, representing a major shift in the global economy driven by AI innovation [2][3] - Major firms like PwC and McKinsey acknowledge the multi-trillion-dollar potential of AI, suggesting a broad consensus on its economic impact [3] Company and Industry Analysis - A breakthrough in AI technology is seen as a catalyst for redefining work, learning, and creativity, leading to increased interest from hedge funds and top investors [4] - There is speculation about an under-owned company that possesses critical AI technology, which could be pivotal in the anticipated $250 trillion revolution [4][6] - Prominent figures in technology and investment, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, recognize AI as a significant technological advancement with the potential for substantial social benefits [8] Market Dynamics - The AI ecosystem is expected to reshape operations for businesses, governments, and consumers globally, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The investment landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft being closely watched, while a smaller company is suggested to hold greater potential [6][7]

Core Insights - Generative AI is viewed as a transformative technology by Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy, indicating its potential to significantly enhance customer experiences across the company [1] - Elon Musk predicts that by 2040, humanoid robots could create a market worth $250 trillion, representing a major shift in the global economy driven by AI innovation [2][3] - Major firms like PwC and McKinsey acknowledge the potential of AI to unlock multi-trillion-dollar opportunities, reinforcing the optimistic outlook on AI's economic impact [3] Company and Industry Analysis - A breakthrough in AI technology is believed to be redefining work, learning, and creativity, leading to increased interest from hedge funds and top investors [4] - There is speculation about an under-owned company that may play a crucial role in the AI revolution, suggesting that it could be a significant investment opportunity [4][6] - Prominent figures in technology and finance, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, recognize AI as a major technological advancement with the potential for substantial social benefits [8]

根据亚马逊(AMZN.US)发布的安全研究报告，在过去五周内，少数黑客借助市面上广泛可得的人工智能(AI)工具，攻破 了分布在数十个国家的600多个防火墙。 报告称，这一小团体(甚至可能只有一人)利用商业生成式AI服务，迅速攻破了安全措施的薄弱环节，例如简单的登录凭 证或单因素身份验证。 亚马逊称，这些技术使入侵者能够大规模攻陷防火墙，原本这项任务需要更大规模、技术更熟练团队才能实现。 这些黑客利用其对安全设备的访问权限，进一步渗透部分受害者网络，其行为模式看起来像是在为勒索软件攻击做准 备。 亚马逊表示，这些大范围入侵事件具有经济动机，是黑客利用AI来简化并加速网络攻击的最新案例。报告未披露黑客具 体使用了哪些AI工具，也未点名受害者。 亚马逊安全工程与运营负责人CJ Moses在报告中表示，"这就像一条由AI驱动的网络犯罪流水线，让技术不那么高明的人 也能实现规模化作案。" 研究人员认为，这些黑客并非针对特定行业，而是"机会主义地"攻击防护薄弱的防火墙设备。 Moses称，一旦遇到更强的安全防护，黑客就会转向其他目标。而即便成功进入网络内部，他们"也只能执行最简单、自 动化的攻击路径"。 去年，黑客曾利用 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc. is facing challenges due to a significant decline in free cash flow, primarily driven by increased capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence and cloud expansion, making it a difficult investment choice [1][2]. Financial Performance - Amazon's free cash flow is projected to decline sharply through 2025 and into early 2026, with specific quarterly figures indicating a drop from $25.9 billion in Q1 2025 to $11.2 billion in Q4 2025 [2]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to approximately $200 billion in 2026, representing a $70 billion year-over-year increase [2]. Market Position and Strategy - Jim Cramer has shifted his perspective on Amazon, previously defending it during a selloff, but now acknowledges that it has transitioned from being perceived as cheap to expensive for many investors [4]. - Cramer has identified Alphabet Inc. as a more attractive investment within the mega-cap tech sector due to its aggressive AI infrastructure initiatives [4]. Investment Metrics - Amazon's Benzinga Edge scorecard indicates a weak value score of 58.94, suggesting the stock is trading at a premium compared to peers [6]. - The company has a strong quality score of 71.7, reflecting robust financial health and profitability [6]. - However, Amazon's momentum score is weak at 14.69, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [6].

Market Overview - The stock market rebounded last week, with the Nasdaq ending a five-week losing streak, rising 1.9% due to strong performances from major tech companies like Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Amazon [1] - The S&P 500 increased by 1.1%, breaking a two-week decline, aided by a Supreme Court ruling against President Trump's emergency tariffs [1] Supreme Court Ruling - The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's tariffs, stating that no president had previously used the statute to impose tariffs of such magnitude, requiring clear congressional authorization for such actions [1] - Following the ruling, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, although some companies like Nike experienced a decline due to ongoing tariff concerns [1] Big Tech Performance - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Meta up 2.5% and Nvidia up 3.8% after Meta announced plans to use Nvidia's chips in its data centers, highlighting strong AI demand [1] - Amazon's shares surged 5.6% after a regulatory filing revealed that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square increased its position in the company [1] - Alphabet's stock initially lagged but later rallied to end the week up 3% [1] Private Credit Concerns - Concerns in the private credit market arose from Blue Owl Capital's decision to restrict withdrawals from its private debt fund, causing a nearly 6% drop in its shares [1] - Major private asset managers like Ares Management and Blackstone faced significant declines, with Ares down 8% and Blackstone down 6.6% [1] - Despite these concerns, BlackRock's exposure to private credit did not raise alarms, as its shares only dropped 1% before recovering [1] Portfolio Adjustments - Capital One was the only financial stock traded last week, with additional shares purchased [1] - The company exited its position in Texas Roadhouse due to concerns over ongoing beef inflation issues [1]

Group 1 - Phemex has completed the full integration of Ondo Finance's tokenized equity suite, positioning itself as a leader in the Real-World Asset (RWA) revolution [1] - The platform now offers its 10 million global users seamless access to a diverse selection of 14 traditional blue-chip assets in tokenized form, including major companies like NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, and Amazon [1] - This strategic initiative emphasizes Phemex's commitment to accelerating the convergence of Traditional Finance (TradFi) and Web3, enhancing capital efficiency and portfolio diversification for users [1] Group 2 - Phemex, founded in 2019, is a user-centric cryptocurrency platform trusted by over 10 million traders worldwide, offering spot and derivatives trading, copy trading, and asset management products [1] - The platform aims to provide reliable tools, inclusive access, and evolving opportunities for traders at all levels, prioritizing user experience, transparency, and innovation [1]

Quick Read Bill Ackman bought $1.8B of Meta Platforms (META) after its Q3 earnings dropped on AI spending concerns. Meta is now 11% of the portfolio. Meta’s AI-driven ad ranking delivered 4x more revenue impact than increasing ad load. Meta generated $200B revenue in 2025 with 22% year-over-year growth. Meta trades at 22x forward earnings. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. Bill Ackman ...