Group 1 - Steven Cress is the Head of Quantitative Strategies at Seeking Alpha, managing quant ratings and factor grades on stocks and ETFs [1] - Cress leads Alpha Picks, selecting two attractive stocks to buy each month and determining when to sell them [1] - The quantitative stock rating system created by Cress is designed to interpret data for investors, offering insights and saving time [2] Group 2 - Cress has over 30 years of experience in equity research, quantitative strategies, and portfolio management, positioning him well to discuss various investment topics [2] - He previously founded CressCap Investment Research, which was acquired by Seeking Alpha in 2018, enhancing its quant analysis and market data capabilities [2] - Cress also founded the quant hedge fund Cress Capital Management and has experience in proprietary trading at Morgan Stanley [2]

Core Viewpoint - Applovin (APP.US) experienced a significant pre-market decline of over 11% following a short-selling report from Capitalwatch, which raised concerns about the company's core shareholder structure and potential systemic compliance risks and major financial crimes [1]. Company Summary - The short-selling report by Capitalwatch alleges that Applovin's shareholder structure may involve systemic compliance risks [1]. - The report also suggests the presence of significant financial crimes associated with the company [1].

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs [1] - A professional background check is conducted on each insider who purchased shares after the sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - Multicolor lines and trend lines are used in technical analysis to identify patterns and potential price movements [1]

We came across a bullish thesis on AppLovin Corporation on The Simple Side’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on APP. AppLovin Corporation's share was trading at $617.76 as of January 14th. APP’s trailing and forward P/E were 72.85 and 42.55 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. 12 Best Software Infrastructure Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds AppLovin Corporation engages in building a software-based platform for advertisers to enhance the marketing and monetization ...

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation (APP) has experienced a 22.5% decline in share price over the past month, significantly more than the industry's 6% decline, raising questions about the attractiveness of this dip for long-term investors [1][7] Group 1: Scalability and Growth - AppLovin's scalability is driven by its Axon engine, a machine-learning system that automates ad placement, pricing, and performance, allowing for faster campaign deployment and more efficient budget scaling [4][10] - The expansion of AppLovin's self-service platform enhances operational efficiency, increasing revenue from existing customers and attracting new advertisers focused on performance transparency [5][11] - Axon's capabilities are now extending beyond mobile gaming into e-commerce advertising, broadening AppLovin's total addressable market and improving revenue diversification without sacrificing margins [6][9] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, AppLovin reported a 68% year-over-year revenue growth and a 79% increase in adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong financial momentum [12][7] - For the full year 2024, revenues increased by 43% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA surged by 81%, showcasing the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities [12] Group 3: Analyst Projections - Analysts project a 67% increase in earnings per share for Q4 2025, with revenue expected to reach $1.6 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year growth [13][14] - Full-year 2025 earnings are anticipated to rise by 106%, with further growth of 62.5% expected in 2026, alongside revenue increases of 18% in 2025 and 38% in 2026 [13] Group 4: Competitive Positioning - Compared to peers like The Trade Desk and Unity Software, AppLovin's focus on performance and margin stability differentiates it in the advertising technology space [15][16] - The Trade Desk is more sensitive to advertising cycles, while Unity Software's ad business remains volatile, highlighting AppLovin's more stable operational model [15][16] Group 5: Investment Opportunity - The recent decline in APP shares is viewed as a result of short-term market volatility rather than fundamental deterioration, presenting a potential entry point for long-term investors [17] - AppLovin's transition to a pure AI-driven advertising platform enhances its scalability and durability, supported by strong financial momentum and positive analyst expectations [17]

Core Insights - The valuation of AppLovin Corp. (APP) stock is enhanced by the company's growth catalysts at full scale, particularly through its self-service platform and Axon Manager [1] Group 1: Company Overview - AppLovin Corp. is positioned to leverage its growth catalysts effectively, indicating a strong potential for future performance [1] Group 2: Growth Catalysts - Key growth catalysts for AppLovin include the self-service platform and Axon Manager, which are expected to drive the company's expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The software-as-a-service (SaaS) sector is experiencing significant turmoil due to fears of disruption from artificial intelligence (AI), but these fears may be exaggerated, presenting potential investment opportunities in select software stocks. Group 1: AppLovin - AppLovin has seen a stock price increase of 71% over the past year, yet it currently trades nearly 22% below its 52-week high [2][3] - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth, particularly from its AI-powered Axon-2 adtech platform, which grew 68% year over year last quarter, enhancing gross margins and profitability [3] - Management plans to expand the platform beyond mobile gaming and introduce a self-serve ad manager, which are expected to be growth catalysts [3] Group 2: Salesforce - Salesforce aims to lead in agentic AI by launching Data Cloud (now Data 360) and acquiring Informatica, positioning itself as the master record of organizational data [4][5] - The stock has decreased by about 28% over the past year, attributed to concerns over slowing core growth and increased competition, making it relatively cheap with a forward P/S multiple below 5 and a forward P/E ratio of 18 [5] Group 3: Workday - Workday claims to have the "largest and cleanest" human resource and finance database, which is crucial in the AI era [6] - The company is introducing AI agents and tools for finance, legal, and HR, and has acquired Paradox to enhance its hiring process [7] - Workday's stock has fallen nearly 24% over the past year, but it is trading at a forward P/S ratio below 5 and a forward P/E of 18, indicating it is undervalued [7] Group 4: GitLab - GitLab operates a DevSecOps platform and has seen its stock decline about 45% over the past year due to fears that AI may reduce the need for coders [9] - Despite these concerns, the company has consistently grown its revenue by 25% or more, driven by an increasing enterprise customer count [10] - The launch of its Duo Agent solution and a new hybrid pricing model could serve as growth catalysts, with the stock trading at a forward P/S multiple under 5.5 [10] Group 5: UiPath - UiPath's stock has decreased about 24% from its 52-week high, but the company is transitioning to become an AI orchestration platform [11] - The Maestro platform is designed to manage AI agents and software bots, addressing the need for governance and compliance as AI agents proliferate [13] - The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/S multiple below 5 and a forward P/E around 20 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Software stocks, particularly in the SaaS sector, are experiencing significant pressure following the launch of Anthropic's Agentic platform called Cowork, which has led to a negative impact on related stocks [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The software sector, represented by the IGV index, is currently facing challenges due to competitive pressures from new platforms [1] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities that can outperform the S&P 500, emphasizing the importance of price action analysis combined with fundamental analysis [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing aims to identify high-potential opportunities across various sectors, particularly focusing on stocks with strong growth potential and those that are undervalued [1] - The approach includes avoiding overhyped stocks while capitalizing on beaten-down stocks that have significant upside recovery potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Software stocks, particularly in the SaaS sector, are experiencing significant pressure following the launch of Anthropic's Agentic platform called Cowork, which has led to a negative impact on related stocks [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The software sector, represented by the IGV index, is currently facing challenges due to competitive pressures from new platforms [1] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities that can outperform the S&P 500, emphasizing the importance of robust price action and fundamentals [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing specializes in identifying high-potential opportunities across various sectors, particularly those with strong growth potential and significant upside recovery possibilities [1] - The approach avoids overhyped and overvalued stocks while capitalizing on beaten-down stocks that have the potential for turnaround [1]

Core Insights - The mobile adtech firm Liftoff has filed for an IPO in the US, potentially signaling the end of a prolonged IPO drought in the adtech sector [1] - If the IPO market reopens, companies with consistent growth and a focus on performance advertising, particularly those leveraging AI, are expected to lead the way [2] Company Overview - Liftoff offers a software development kit for app developers to sell advertising and utilizes machine learning to help advertisers target high-quality mobile users [3] - The company reported a revenue growth of 30% year-over-year, reaching $491 million for the nine months ending September 30, with adjusted earnings of $263.3 million and a net loss of $25.6 million [3] Market Dynamics - Other mobile adtech companies like InMobi and Moloco are also seen as potential IPO candidates, as the market has consolidated into a few major players [4] - AppLovin has emerged as a leading player with a market cap exceeding $200 billion, influencing other companies in the adtech space [10] Performance Advertising Trends - Consumer spending on mobile apps is projected to grow by 21.6% year-over-year, reaching $155.8 billion by 2025 [12] - Advertisers are increasingly focused on measurable outcomes, employing data-driven strategies to optimize ad performance [14] Industry Challenges and Adaptations - The mobile ad industry faced challenges following Apple's privacy updates in 2021, which limited tracking capabilities [15] - Companies have adapted by investing in first-party data and AI tools, reducing reliance on Apple's tracking identifiers [16] Future Outlook - Recent antitrust rulings against Apple and Google may lead to reduced app store fees, creating a favorable environment for increased mobile ad spending [17] - Cost savings from reduced commissions are expected to be reinvested into user acquisition efforts [18]