智通财经APP获悉，随着十月的到来，市场正式步入2025年第四季度。在此节点，摩根大通对其内部排 名领先的美国股票分析师展开调研，筛选出各板块中"最具说服力的结构性与战术性做空标的"。 在能源板块方面，摩根大通明确了三大核心看空标的：阿特斯太阳能(CSIQ.US)、 ChargePoint(CHPT.US)以及Gibson Energy(GBNXY.US)。 2025年以来，标普500能源板块表现持续落后，年初至今涨幅仅为4.47%。在11个主要板块中，该板块 涨幅排名第九;受年内油价下跌影响，其涨幅空间也受到明显制约。 下文将详细介绍摩根大通对这三大能源看空标的的评级依据，同时附上各股票的年初至今表现： 阿特斯太阳能 股票年內表现：+29.8% 摩根大通评级：减持 看空依据：摩根大通认为，近期太阳能原材料(如多晶硅)价格上涨可能导致阿特斯太阳能的毛利率承压 ——尤其是原材料成本的上涨速度已超过太阳能组件价格的涨幅。此外，若该公司未能满足《大而美法 案》中有关"受关注外国实体"的相关规定(预计未来数月内将正式出台)，其美国本土制造业务或面临中 断风险。 ChargePoint 股票年內表现：-46.2% 摩根 ...

1998年夏天，俄罗斯正陷入一场金融风暴，全球市场也因之动荡不安。在这场金融战的核心人物中，既有手握国家机器的俄罗斯政府，也有叱咤风云的金融 大鳄乔治·索罗斯。双方的较量异常激烈，以至于一度传出索罗斯在俄罗斯遭遇生命威胁，险些丧命。 危机的开端 时间回到1990年代中期，俄罗斯的经济看似在转型，但隐患不断。财政赤字高企，资本外流严重，经济结构单一，依赖石油和天然气。当大多数投资者仍对 俄罗斯经济抱有信心时，索罗斯却敏锐地意识到其中的脆弱性。他认为卢布迟早会贬值，于是开始布局。 到了1997年，卢布汇率已出现松动迹象。索罗斯旗下的量子基金趁势行动，大量买入卢布并利用杠杆交易，从市场恐慌中赚得可观利润。他的策略核心 是"做空"——押注卢布和俄国资产的下跌，同时增持美元和德国马克等稳定货币，以此锁定收益。 金融狙击与俄罗斯反击 1998年，俄罗斯经济的危机全面爆发：经济衰退、通胀飙升、财政赤字不断扩大，政府还拼命借外债、加大发钞量。索罗斯判断这是破局时机，他大举做空 卢布和俄罗斯股票市场。 然而，他低估了俄罗斯政府的手段。1998年8月17日，俄罗斯宣布放弃固定汇率制度，让卢布自由浮动。短时间内，卢布暴跌、股市崩溃 ...

Market Analysis - Bitcoin is currently near a previous low point on the daily chart, with potential for consolidation over the weekend and a possible fakeout drop before recovering [1] - A successful fakeout drop and recovery could signal a good short-term to mid-term buying opportunity, with a potential retest of previous highs [1] - Ethereum's price action is contingent on Bitcoin's movements; a Bitcoin rally could validate a breakout in Ethereum [1] Trading Strategy - The analysis suggests a trading plan to short Bitcoin in smaller timeframes near the previous low, anticipating liquidity grabs, and then consider longing after a confirmed recovery [1] - A clear trading plan involves waiting for Bitcoin to hunt stop-losses and recover before considering long positions in Ethereum, providing a double confirmation [1] - The analyst's preferred exchanges are Bybit for contract trading due to its suitability for technical analysis, and Binance for spot trading, offering a 40% fee reduction [1] Risk Management - Traders should exercise caution if Ethereum breaks out while Bitcoin is still consolidating, as Bitcoin has not yet hunted for stop-losses [1] - The analyst is hesitant to long Bitcoin immediately after a drop and recovery, preferring to short in smaller timeframes and then long after further confirmation [1]

Market Sentiment - The document suggests a bullish stance towards shorting assets on Upbit and Binance [1] - The author expresses confidence in their ability to profit from shorting "full slam" coins on these exchanges [1]

Market Analysis - The analysis suggests that Bitcoin is currently facing some challenges at the daily chart level, with potential difficulties in determining the optimal trading strategy due to market volatility [1] - The report considers the possibility of a "fake breakout" scenario, where the price might initially rise to trigger stop-loss orders before reversing downwards [1] - The analysis suggests that large capital may not allow traders to easily set their short stop-loss orders, indicating a potential for market manipulation [1] - The report suggests the possibility of Bitcoin accumulating short positions before rising to break through previous highs, potentially creating a short squeeze [1] - The analysis indicates that Ethereum (ETH) may follow Bitcoin's downward trend, potentially breaking through lower support levels [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst is inclined to wait for a higher price point, specifically around $120,000, before considering shorting Bitcoin, despite the risk of missing a potential downward move [1] - The report suggests that if one is concerned about missing a potential downward move, a small short position could be initiated with a stop-loss order placed above the recent high [1][2] - The analysis suggests that a key level to watch for Ethereum is a potential fake breakout at previous highs, which could present a shorting opportunity in conjunction with Bitcoin [2] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - The analysis suggests that liquidity plays a significant role in driving market movements, especially within smaller ranges [1] - The report notes that stop-loss orders are likely clustered around previous highs, indicating a potential target for market manipulation to liquidate these positions [1] - The analysis observes an increase in short positions being opened during price declines, but without a corresponding drop in price, suggesting a potential short trap [1]

Group 1 - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a leadership change in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen further [1] - The company shorted the US dollar when the USD/JPY exchange rate approached 150, believing that action from the Bank of Japan in October is likely [1] - Investors view the newly announced candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, as more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his potential rival, Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as favoring loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - BlueBay expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to fluctuate towards 140 in the short term, with a fair value closer to 135 in the medium term; the yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency among the G10 [1] - The company's views contrast with hedge funds, which have increased short positions in the yen for four consecutive weeks, while strategists from Bank of America and HSBC also predict further depreciation of the yen [4] - BlueBay has increased its yen positions in the past month, driven by indications from Bank of Japan officials that policy normalization is on track, barring political risks [4] Group 3 - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year is currently estimated at around 60%, according to overnight index swaps (OIS) pricing [4] - The political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan have pushed up long-term government bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield recently reaching a historical high of 3.285% [4] - If Koizumi wins the LDP leadership election and the Bank of Japan implements a rate hike, BlueBay may consider shifting to a long position in long-term Japanese government bonds [5]

朋友們 2025年9月16日華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看我們發現昨天的k線 是有那麼一點點迷惑性的 我們可以看到 它是把前面的小高點 有一個假突破 然後跌了回來收成了一根十字線 給人一種感覺 就是好像這個上面上不去了對不對 然後很多人會考慮在這個地方做空 但是你可以看到現在又拉升上來了 我們可以看一下盤口這邊非常明顯 我們可以看到昨天的日線 確實有很多人在這個下方去交易 那麼在下方交易的如果說漲上來 那麼這樣的一些空頭 都會變成行情上漲過程中的燃料 這個是日線級別告訴我們的 我個人仍然是認為 前面的高點是大概率會去的 那麼這個是一個比較切近的位置 117000左右 來到這個上面的概率 我個人是覺得至少有90%左右 那麼如果說再往前進一步 就是12萬左右了 我們原先在往下面跌的時候 提醒大家如果說這一帶不站回去 它有可能就會回抽然後繼續下跌 但是一旦站回來了 我們可以看到 12萬這一帶的概率是非常的大 那麼在我看來 如果說真要說一個數字的話 那麼70%甚至還要多一點 75%的概率是會來到這樣的一帶的 好不好 如果說你嘗試要在這個地方做空的話 你看到我的節目之後最好 ...

Core Viewpoint - Faraday Future (FFAI.US) has experienced a decline of over 6%, closing at $1.621, following a short-selling report from Wolfpack Research that raises concerns about potential delisting risks and accuses the company of misleading investors [1] Group 1 - Wolfpack Research has established a short position against Faraday Future, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's stock performance [1] - The report claims that the rise in Faraday Future's stock price is based on "false orders, rebranded Chinese MPVs, and numerous lies," suggesting deceptive practices aimed at retail investors [1] - The company's stock has fallen to "penny stock" levels, reflecting significant investor skepticism and potential financial instability [1]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin shows signs of a potential rebound after a false breakout from its peak, but lacks clear entry points for short positions [1] - A short-term upward trend for Bitcoin is anticipated, potentially influenced by the upward movement of gold [1] - Ethereum may continue to rise if Bitcoin increases, as its market structure has not shifted, and selling volume is decreasing [1] Trading Strategy - Consider short positions in Bitcoin in the medium to long term, especially at higher price points [1] - A potential short entry point for Bitcoin is around 13,000, with a clear stop-loss level [1] - Another potential short entry point for Bitcoin is near the previous high point, around 120,000, coinciding with the 0.66%-0.68% Fibonacci retracement level [1] Risk Management - Traders should identify stop-loss levels before initiating trades [1] - The area around 120,000 is noted as a high-liquidity zone and a potential reversal point for Bitcoin [1] External Factors - The US stock market opened weaker, but Bitcoin showed resilience, possibly due to the stock market's previous gains and Bitcoin's prior decline [1] - The analysis considers the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, noting that gold is trending upwards while Bitcoin has been declining [1]

Market Analysis & Trading Signals - Bitcoin experienced a dip below previous lows before rebounding, presenting a buying opportunity based on a "break below and reclaim" strategy [1] - Ethereum showed a similar pattern, breaking below a descending trendline and then rapidly rising, indicating a potential bullish signal [2] - The analyst suggests two trading plans for Ethereum: If it breaks through the resistance level and doesn't fall back, continue to be bullish; if it breaks through and quickly falls back, consider a bearish position [2] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of observing price action and volume, particularly at the $120,000 level for Bitcoin, to identify potential distribution patterns [1] Risk Management & Potential Scenarios - The analyst is still cautious about a potential Wyckoff distribution scenario, suggesting awareness of top risks if clear distribution patterns emerge [1] - A potential MACD divergence on the weekly chart for Bitcoin is noted, indicating a possible weakening of the upward trend [1] - The analyst advises against chasing the price after a $5,000 surge and warns of the proximity to the 0618% Fibonacci retracement level [1] - The analyst suggests taking partial profits around the $120,000 level for Bitcoin and considering short positions if bearish divergence appears [1] General Trading Philosophy - The analyst stresses the importance of patience and avoiding panic during market dips, viewing them as potential buying opportunities [1] - The analyst advises against blindly following news and instead focusing on understanding market mechanics and liquidity grabs [1] - The analyst emphasizes adapting to market trends rather than rigidly sticking to personal predictions, advocating for an open mind and flexible strategy [2]