ASML (NASDAQ: ASML ) stock dropped nearly 22% following unexpectedly lower demand , driven by slower ramp of new nodes at certain customers according to management's comments. While the company topped bothI'm specialized in fundamental equity research, global macro strategy, and top-down portfolio construction. I graduated from UCLA with a degree of Business Economics and UMich Ross School of Business with a Master of Accounting. I'm a senior analyst at a multi-strategy hedge fund. In my opinion, HODL can't ...

The quarterly updates of ASML, a critical supplier to the semiconductor industry, are vital to understanding the state of that industry.ASML (ASML -6.42%) told investors that anything related to artificial intelligence remains strong, but demand from other segments is recovering more slowly than expected.*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Oct. 14, 2024. The video was published on Oct. 16, 2024. ...

ASML ( OTCQX:ASMIY ) identifies itself for investors as the "most important tech company you've never heard of" . Indeed, ASML does not share the fame and trendiness of rock star Nvidia, or of other big names in the chips industryI have an extensive 24-year career experience in analyzing and valuing companies. I started my career as a buy side then a sell side equity analyst, then I worked as a private equity analyst for several years then as a long-term corporate investor of both equity and debt. Since the ...

Tired of losing money? Our Tech Contrarians team of Wall Street analysts sifts through the noise in the tech industry and captures outperformers through a coveted research process. We let the work speak for itself here .Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (othe ...

Core Insights - ASML's shares have declined for two consecutive days following a disappointing 2025 outlook [1] - The company experienced a technical error that led to an early release of its earnings results [1] - ASML's stock has fallen into negative territory for the year, now down 10% year-to-date [1] Financial Performance - ASML has lowered its 2025 net sales forecast to between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion to $38.1 billion), which is below the previous projection and the consensus estimate of 36.1 billion euros [1] - The third-quarter results were initially scheduled for release on Wednesday but were published early due to a technical issue [1] Stock Market Reaction - Following the early earnings release, ASML's shares dropped more than 6% on Wednesday after a 16% decline on Tuesday [1] - The stock's performance has resulted in a negative year-to-date return, indicating investor disappointment [1]

Semiconductors Slump After ASML Results ReleasedYesterday, semiconductor stocks declined due to a surprise earnings release by Dutch semiconductor giant ASML Holding ((ASML) ). ASML’s earnings were released yesterday on the company’s website due to an apparent technical error. ASML, which counts Taiwan Semiconductor ((TSM) ), Intel ((INTC) ), and Samsung Electronics as its largest clients, beat Wall Street expectations handily but provided weak forward earnings guidance, citing slower expected demand for AI ...

A day after the stock plunged, investors weren't encouraged by management commentary.Shares of ASML (ASML -6.46%) were falling for the second day in a row today. After the chip equipment maker accidentally reported results yesterday, investors seemed to give a thumbs-down to its earnings call this morning that added some color to its downbeat guidance for 2025.The chip stock was down 5.6% on the news as of 12:23 p.m. ET on Wednesday. ASML sees slowing demandThere weren't any groundbreaking revelations in to ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales for Q3 2024 reached EUR 7.5 billion, exceeding guidance due to increased DEEP UV system sales and higher installed base management sales [9] - Gross margin for the quarter was 50.8%, within guidance, with operating expenses for R&D at EUR 1.06 billion and SG&A at EUR 297 million [10] - Free cash flow improved to EUR 534 million, although pressure remains due to lower order intake and higher inventory levels [10] - Q3 net system bookings totaled EUR 2.6 billion, with a backlog exceeding EUR 36 billion at the end of Q3 2024 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales comprised EUR 2.1 billion from EUV sales and EUR 3.8 billion from non-EUV sales, with logic accounting for 64% of net system sales and memory for 36% [9] - Installed Base Management sales were EUR 1.54 billion, driven by higher service and upgrade revenue [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The order intake reflects a slow recovery in traditional end markets, with customers remaining cautious [11] - The company expects Q4 total net sales between EUR 8.8 billion and EUR 9.2 billion, with installed base management sales around EUR 1.9 billion [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on advancing EUV technology, with significant improvements in throughput and performance expected from the new NXE:3800E system [14] - The strategy includes preparing for new fabs globally to meet future demand, with a focus on building capacity to respond to anticipated increases in demand throughout the decade [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while AI is a key driver for industry recovery, other segments are recovering more slowly than anticipated, leading to cautious customer behavior [16] - The outlook for 2025 revenue has been adjusted to EUR 30 billion to EUR 35 billion, reflecting a slower recovery and reduced growth expectations [19] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly interim dividend of EUR 1.52 per ordinary share for Q3 2024, with the next payment scheduled for November 7, 2024 [13] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining operational flexibility in response to market dynamics and customer demand [47] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in China Demand - Management indicated that the normalization of China sales is due to a combination of backlog adjustments and cautiousness regarding export controls, projecting China to represent 20% of total sales in 2025 [26][70] Question: 2025 Gross Margin Guidance - The reduction in expected EUV shipments and changes in product mix are key factors influencing the 2025 gross margin guidance, which is now expected to be between 51% and 53% [20][29] Question: Impact of Customer Push Outs - Management acknowledged that customer push outs are a mix of slower end demand and competitive dynamics, affecting the timing of fab constructions [35][36] Question: Installed Base Management Growth - Management expects healthy double-digit growth in installed base management for 2025, driven by service and upgrade revenues [39] Question: High NA Technology Adoption - Interest in High NA technology is increasing, with positive performance data being generated, although discussions about future improvements are long-term [42][61] Question: Order Levels Needed for Guidance - To reach the midpoint of the new guidance, the company needs approximately EUR 2 billion in orders by the end of the year, with some flexibility for orders coming in Q1 [66] Question: DUV Growth Outside China - Management expressed confidence in significant growth for DUV outside China, correlating with EUV demand, particularly in leading nodes [84]

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ASML, NVDA, AMD, TSMC, AVGO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being gi ...

A Dutch chipmaking giant sparked chaos after it accidentally published a disappointing financial outlook a day earlier than scheduled – slashing billions in market value across the semiconductor sector.Shares of ASML — which manufactures equipment used to make chips, including the processors used to power artificial intelligence — sank nearly 6% Wednesday. The stock had plunged 16% a day earlier – equating to a loss of more than $52 billion in market value.That was after ASML’s third-quarter results mysteri ...