作者 | 冬梅 全球半导体光刻机巨头 ASML（阿斯麦） 今日正式宣布，由于全球成熟制程设备需求放缓以及出口 监管政策的持续收紧，公司计划在全球范围内削减约 1700 个工作岗位。 这是 ASML 自 2023 年 AI 浪潮爆发以来首次进行大规模裁员，标志着即便是在 AI 高速发展的背景 下，半导体设备行业也未能完全抵御周期性调整的冲击。 ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet 发布的全员信如下： 尊敬的 ASML 同事们： 今天，我们发布了 2025 年全年财务业绩以及对未来一年的展望。半导体生态系统有望在未来几年迎 来显著增长，而 ASML 已做好充分准备，把握这一积极发展机遇。我谨代表管理委员会，感谢各位 同事为取得这一成功所做出的贡献。 我们取得的成功归功于我们对客户的专注、卓越的工程技术以及与生态系统的协作。我们的创新和执 行能力为客户、供应商、同事和投资者带来了显著的效益。我们将根据客户需求，继续扩大员工队伍 和业务规模，包括计划在埃因霍温建设的第二个园区。 在技术部门，我们计划将项目 / 矩阵式组织架构转变为以特定产品和模块为核心的模式。这将有助于 简化流程和决策。我们从公司各 ...

ASML Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - The company discussed is ASML, a leading supplier in the semiconductor equipment industry Financial Overview - The company reported Q4 revenue of €9.72 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%, at the upper end of the previous guidance of €9.2-9.8 billion and above Bloomberg consensus estimate of €9.57 billion [1] - The gross margin for the quarter was 52.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the previous guidance of 51%-53% and above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 51.9% [1] - Net profit for the quarter was €2.84 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34%, but below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of €2.91 billion [1] - For Q1 2026, the company expects revenue of €8.2-8.9 billion, higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of €8.13 billion; gross margin is expected to be between 51%-53%, with the midpoint lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 52.5% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue was split into two main segments: Equipment revenue of €7.6 billion (up 37% quarter-on-quarter) and Service revenue of €2.1 billion (up 9% quarter-on-quarter) [3] - Equipment sales by product: EUV sales were 14 units (up 5 units), accounting for 48% of revenue; ArFiDUV sales were 37 units (down 1 unit), accounting for 40% of revenue; Other DUV and metrology equipment sales were 51 units (up 26 units), accounting for 12% of revenue [3] - Equipment revenue by end-use application: Storage accounted for 30% and Logic accounted for 70% [3] Order Situation - The company reported strong new orders in Q4 2025, totaling €13.2 billion, an increase of €7.76 billion quarter-on-quarter [5] - Orders by product type: EUV orders were €7.4 billion (up €3.8 billion), and DUV orders were €5.8 billion (up €4 billion) [5] Long-term Guidance - The company expects revenue for 2026 to be between €34 billion and €39 billion, with the midpoint higher than the previous guidance that revenue would not be lower than 2025; this guidance is also above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of €35.1 billion [2] - Gross margin for 2026 is expected to be between 51%-53%, with the midpoint lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 52.9% [2] Additional Insights - The strong order growth indicates robust demand in the semiconductor industry, particularly for advanced lithography equipment [5] - The revenue and margin guidance suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for the upcoming quarters, reflecting ongoing investments in technology and capacity expansion [1][2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views - The report presents a wide - ranging overview of overnight market trends across various asset classes including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, along with important macro, industry - specific, and geopolitical news that could potentially impact these markets [5][34][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 6.46% at $5411.00/oz and COMEX silver up 10.06% at $116.62/oz due to Fed's signals and market speculation on the chairperson [5] - Crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 1.78% at $63.5/barrel and Brent up 1.56% at $67.63/barrel, driven by supply - related concerns [5] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME tin up 3.52%, LME aluminum up 1.59%, LME nickel up 1.12% [5] - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with fuel oil, asphalt etc. up over 1%, while ethylene glycol, corn etc. slightly down [7] Important Information Macro - information - By the end of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, up 16.1% year - on - year [9] - Yichun lifted the heavy pollution weather yellow alert on January 28, 2026 [10] - As of December 2025, there were 150 futures companies in China, with a trading volume of 992 million lots and an operating income of 4.918 billion yuan in December [10] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke through 7 at the end of 2025, and it is expected to remain stable in 2026 [10] - Trump warned Iran, and the US may face another partial government shutdown [10][11] - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark rate at 2.25% [13] - The US Treasury Secretary expressed views on Fed's policy and the exchange - rate policy [13] - The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - The 2026 potash market is expected to see increased supply and stable prices [16] - As of January 28, 2026, China's methanol port inventory was 1.4721 million tons, up 14,600 tons [16] - UAE's Fujairah port's refined oil inventory increased by 2.012 million barrels to 23.369 million barrels in the week ending January 26, 2026 [18] - US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels in the week ending January 23 [18] Metal Futures - Guinea's bauxite exports in 2025 increased 25% year - on - year to 182.8 million tons [20] - Thailand's central bank restricted gold trading to manage the Thai baht exchange rate [20] - CME adjusted margin parameters for some silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts [20] - China's polysilicon production is expected to decline significantly in January and February [20] - Russian Norilsk Nickel's 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for nickel and palladium were released [21] - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin and price - limit ratios for precious and base metal futures contracts [23][24] - A large smelting enterprise in Henan reduced production by 30% due to fog warnings [25] - Two zinc mines in Southwest China plan to reduce production in February [25] Black - series Futures - Two iron ore units of Vale were suspended, with an annual output of about 8 million tons [28] - As of January 28, national building materials production decreased, while inventories increased [28] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise coke prices on January 30 [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's drought may reduce 2025/26 crop yields [31] - Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026 decreased 14.81% compared to the same period last month [31] - CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased 12.08% in the week ending January 23 [31] Financial Market Financial - A - shares fluctuated, with resource stocks rising and the photovoltaic industry chain adjusting [34] - The Hang Seng Index rose to a new high since August 2021 [34] - In 2025, Chinese public security cracked down on major securities crimes [35] - By the end of December 2025, China's public funds reached a new high of 37.7 trillion yuan [35] - The first CSI A500ETF was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35] Industry - The withdrawal of "zombie" Chinese patent medicine approvals will not impact the market [37] - China's installed power generation capacity increased by 16.1% by the end of 2025 [37] - Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators [37] - China approved two medical device industry standards [37] - Three ministries issued 18 policies to support the elderly - care service industry [37] - A football "match - fixing" news conference will be held [38] - A Shenzhen gold platform faced a payment crisis [38] - The demand for solid - state batteries in humanoid robots is expected to exceed 74GWh by 2035 [40] Overseas - Trump threatened Iran, and Iran is on high alert [41] - India reported two Nipah virus cases with low spread risk [41] - Germany lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1% [41] - The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if the outlook is as expected [42] - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark rate at 2.25% [42] - South Korea's former first - lady was sentenced to 1 year and 8 months [43] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.17% [44] - European stocks fell due to Trump's threat to Iran [44] - Most Asian - Pacific stocks rose, except for the Indonesian index which tumbled [45] - SpaceX may launch an IPO in mid - June with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion [45] - Microsoft, Meta, and other companies reported strong earnings [45][46] Commodities - Exchanges tightened risk - control measures for futures contracts [49] - International precious metals and crude oil prices rose, while base metals mostly increased [49][50][51] Bonds - Chinese treasury bond futures rose on Wednesday, and the Ministry of Finance completed a treasury cash management deposit auction [52][53] - The National Development Bank issued RMB 5.5 billion of bonds in Macau [54] - Japan's 40 - year treasury bond auction had a high bid - to - cover ratio [54] - US treasury bond yields showed mixed performance [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB/USD exchange rate rose, and China signed a RMB clearing agreement with Sri Lanka [56] - The yen depreciated against the dollar, and Thailand's central bank restricted gold trading [56] - The US dollar index rose 0.63% [57] Upcoming Events - There are multiple central bank interest - rate decisions, news conferences, and corporate earnings announcements scheduled for the day [59]

华尔街机构一致认为，阿斯麦已明确进入一个由AI算力建设与存储技术升级共同驱动的多年增长周期。 财报中订单爆发与业绩指引的"双重超预期"，被视作确认半导体设备行业景气拐点的关键信号。 其中，存储芯片客户需求首次超越逻辑芯片成为主要驱动力，预示着产业投资重心正在向AI基础设施倾斜。 当前的强劲指引可能仍偏保守，公司已处于新一轮技术周期的起点。 华尔街主流机构在阿 其中，存储芯片客户需求首次超越逻辑芯片成为主要驱动力，预示着产业投资重心正在向AI基础设施倾斜。 当前的强劲指引可能仍偏保守，公司已处于新一轮技术周期的起点。 华尔街主流机构在阿斯麦（ASML）发布远超预期的财报后形成明确共识：该公司正处于一个由AI算力建设与存储 技术升级共同驱动的多年增长周期的开端，其订单的爆发式增长与强劲的业绩指引，共同确认了半导体设备行业 的景气拐点。 1月28日公布的财报显示，阿斯麦第四季度新增订单额飙升至132亿欧元，创下历史新高，达到市场普遍预期（约 66亿至70亿欧元）的近两倍。 这一数据标志着半导体设备行业已进入强劲的上升通道。 华尔街机构一致认为，阿斯麦已明确进入一个由AI算力建设与存储技术升级共同驱动的多年增长周期。 ...

浙商机械【半导体设备】阿斯麦四季度订单大超预期，全球半导体设备需求高景气；看好国内半导体设备板块 事件：阿斯麦2025年四季度订单132亿欧元大超预期，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积压规模达388亿欧元。 订单高增长主要受益AI基础设施建设，北美科技巨头正投入数千亿美元建设数据中心。 同时阿斯麦启动120亿欧元股票回购计划，并计划将2025年全年股息提升17%。 阿斯 浙商机械【半导体设备】阿斯麦四季度订单大超预期，全球半导体设备需求高景气；看好国内半导体设备板块 事件：阿斯麦2025年四季度订单132亿欧元大超预期，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积压规模达388亿欧元。 订单高增长主要受益AI基础设施建设，北美科技巨头正投入数千亿美元建设数据中心。 同时阿斯麦启动120亿欧元股票回购计划，并计划将2025年全年股息提升17%。 阿斯麦预计2026年净销售额将在340亿至390亿欧元之间，毛利率维持在51%至53%区间。 AI投资加速+先进制程迭代，半导体设备需求天花板持续上移 AI算力芯片对先进制程需求持续提升，Meta、微软等科技巨头千亿美元级数据中心投资，叠加台积电等晶圆厂先 进制程扩产，直接拉动EU ...

但#ASML下游两大行业都处在历史级的高景气区间中，2026~2027的需求十分明确。 【国泰海通海外科技】ASML业绩会要点：短期有产能担忧，长期光刻强度提升趋势明确 ASML从盘前+6%至业绩会结束后的-2%，我们认为主要是两个担忧没有得到解决：对中国区指引依旧保守+没有给 出对产能爬坡的solid commitment。 但#ASML下游两大行业都处在历史级的高景气区间中，2026~2027的需求十分明确。 #2026年业绩取决于客户扩产进度、中国区收入 【国泰海通海外科技】ASML业绩会要点：短期有产能担忧，长期光刻强度提升趋势明确 ASML从盘前+6%至业绩会结束后的-2%，我们认为主要是两个担忧没有得到解决：对中国区指引依旧保守+没有给 出对产能爬坡的solid commitment。 #确认EUV光刻强度随节点而提升、长期趋势明确 1Dram方面，市场曾担心从6F2架构转向4F²架构可能导致EUV需求降低；但实际上 4F²结构更复杂，需要更先进的 光刻掩模，会同时增加浸润式 DUV 和 EUV 的光刻强度。 2代工方面，市场层担心N2、A16、A14等节点的EUV强度原地踏步；而ASML确认每一 ...

2026年1月28日，光刻机巨头ASML同步披露两项关键动态：一是 2025年第四季度及全年财报创下历史新高 ，二是 宣布裁员1700人（占员工 总数3.8%） ，这也是其自2010年开启长期扩张以来规模最大的一次裁员。在AI驱动半导体行业持续高景气的背景下，这份"业绩飘红+大规模 裁员"的反差组合，迅速引发市场广泛关注。 这一裁员决定已引发内部波动，多位伴随公司成长的资深被裁员工表达了震惊与寒心，相关情绪也蔓延至在职员工群体，引发对职业稳定性的 担忧。值得注意的是，ASML的裁员并非业务收缩信号，反而呈现"减员与增聘并行"的特点——在剥离管理岗冗余的同时，公司计划在制造、 客户支持等核心业务领域补充人员，还规划建设新园区，以应对持续增长的市场需求。猜测这种操作的核心是优化人员结构，将资源集中投向 直接创造价值的核心业务环节。 ASML的业绩增长，核心得益于AI浪潮带来的需求红利 。公司明确表示，全球科技巨头加码数据中心建设，直接推动先进制程芯片产能扩 张，逻辑芯片和存储芯片客户均在加速产能规划，为光刻机需求提供了强劲支撑。巴克莱证券预测，仅SK海力士一家，2026年就将采购12台 EUV光刻机，为ASML贡 ...

会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处 于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长期通胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很 高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险。为支持其目标，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续 维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 不降息！美联储宣布维持基准利率不变 当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 伊朗副外长：做好200%的自卫准备 伊朗副外长加里巴巴迪28日表示，伊朗的首要任务是"做好200%的自卫准备"。加里巴巴迪说，美国和 以色列清楚伊朗会如何回应。"如果他们采取有限的军事行动，伊朗将会作出适当的回应。" 在此次利率政策出台前，市场普遍预期美联储将在本周政策会议上维持利率不变，此前该机构已在2025 下半年连续三次降息。 加里巴巴迪（上图）说，伊朗会兼顾考虑外交和战争，但会更重视战争的可能性，"我们应为最坏情况 做好准备，随时保卫国家，而不是被他们的外交说辞所蒙蔽"。 加里巴巴迪否认伊朗和美国之间正在进行任 ...

// 热点头条 // 1. 特斯拉： 2025 年第四季度营收 249.01 亿美元，每股收益 0.5 美元超预期，毛利润率 20.1% ，运营 利润 14.1 亿美元。计划一季度发布 Optimus 第三代量产版本， 2026 年底前开始生产，最终产能每年 100 万台机器人。 2. 工业富联：预计 2025 年第四季度净利润同比上升 56%-63% ， AI 服务器营业收入环比增长超 50% ，受益于全球 AI 算力需求激增，公司在高端制造领域的技术优势进一步凸显。 3. 但斌旗下东方港湾海外基金 ORIENTAL HARBOR INVESTMENT FUND ： 2025 年四季度末持仓总 市值约 13.16 亿美元，折合人民币超 90 亿元，大笔加仓谷歌，第一大重仓股由英伟达变为谷歌，反映 出对 AI 应用端长期价值的看好。 4. 阿斯麦： 2025 年四季度净销售额 97 亿欧元创纪录，订单额 132 亿欧元超预期两倍，上调 2026 年 销售额指引至 340-390 亿欧元，毛利率 51%-53% ，称极紫外光刻机需求为增长主因，同时计划在荷 兰和美国裁员约 1700 人以优化成本结构。 5. 希 ...

Core Insights - ASML Holding NV is a crucial player in the semiconductor industry, specializing in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines essential for advanced microchip manufacturing [1] - The company is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the AI boom, with significant revenue growth projections for 2026 [3] - ASML's stock has shown strong performance, doubling over the past six months, reflecting positive market sentiment [3][5] Demand and Orders - ASML's Q4 bookings reached 13.16 billion euros, nearly double market expectations, driven by robust demand for EUV lithography systems [4] - EUV orders specifically amounted to 7.4 billion euros with 14 systems sold, indicating strong customer confidence in AI-related demand sustainability [4] Market Performance - ASML's stock price is currently around $1,425.51, with a market capitalization of approximately $552.53 billion [5] - The stock has fluctuated between a low of $1,408.05 and a high of $1,493.48 during the day, marking its highest price over the past year [5] - Cowen & Co. maintained a "Buy" rating for ASML and raised its price target from EUR 1,000 to EUR 1,500, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [2]