Company Performance - ASML closed at $1,036.31, reflecting a +2.06% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.79% [1] - Over the past month, ASML shares have decreased by 2.3%, while the Computer and Technology sector has lost 0.85% and the S&P 500 has gained 0.87% [1] Earnings Forecast - ASML is expected to report an EPS of $8.84, indicating a 21.1% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $11.06 billion, representing an 11.9% increase compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Full-Year Estimates - The full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $29.01 per share and revenue of $37.64 billion, reflecting year-over-year changes of +39.34% and +23.21%, respectively [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates for ASML may indicate shifting business dynamics, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - ASML has a Forward P/E ratio of 35, which is a premium compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 33.91 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.58, while the Semiconductor Equipment - Wafer Fabrication industry has an average PEG ratio of 1.28 [6] Industry Context - The Semiconductor Equipment - Wafer Fabrication industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 6, placing it in the top 3% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

来源：中国基金报 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚两大利好，美股尤其是科技板块暴涨，中国资产同步上涨，相信周五的市场不出意 外的话不会让人失望了。 早前美光科技的财报拯救了AI交易，今晚美国最新通胀数据，强化了美联储2026年降息的预期！ 一起看看发生了什么事情。 美股飙涨 12月19日晚间，美股三大指数高开高走，道指涨超400点，纳斯达克涨近2%，标普500指数涨超1%。 中国资产方面，中概股指数涨1.5%。 | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数(.HXC) 交易中 12-18 10:42:33 美东时间 | | | | | | | | | c | ( ) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7613.96 | | | | | | | | | | | L1 3 | | +112.60 +1.50% | | | | | | | | | | | | | ਵੇ ਜੇ | | 7567.49 | 最 高 | | 7620.85 | | 成交量 | | | | ○股 | | 卧库 1 રિશ્ચ | | 7501.36 ...

Key Takeaways ASML's Q3 2025 gross margin rose 80 bps to 51.6%, driven by steady EUV demand and installed base growth.Logic drives System sales, with multi-layer EUV boosting utilization and high-margin services.Rising EUV use in advanced DRAM and AI memory supports higher-value tools and a stronger margin outlook.ASML Holding’s (ASML) margin trajectory is increasingly linked to the pace of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) adoption across logic and DRAM manufacturing. EUV tools are among the most complex systems i ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower on December 17, with the Dow Jones down 228.29 points (0.47%) at 47,885.97, the Nasdaq down 418.14 points (1.81%) at 22,693.32, and the S&P 500 down 78.83 points (1.16%) at 6,721.43 [1] Sector Performance - Technology stocks led the decline, with ASML, Oracle, and AMD dropping over 5%, while Tesla and Broadcom fell over 4%. Other notable declines included Nvidia, TSMC, Intel, and Google-A, which were down over 3%, and Qualcomm down over 2%. Meta, Apple, Amazon, Boeing, and Microsoft experienced slight declines, while Netflix saw a small increase [1] AI-Related Stocks - AI-related stocks generally fell, with Nvidia down 3.8%, Broadcom down 4.5%, AMD down 5.3%, Oracle down 5.4%, and Tesla down 4.6% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.73%. Notable declines included Huya, Pinduoduo, NIO, and Li Auto, which fell over 3%, while iQIYI, Tiger Brokers, and Xpeng dropped over 2%. Futu Holdings, Alibaba, NetEase, and Kingsoft fell over 1%, while Baidu and New Oriental saw slight increases, and Ctrip rose over 1% [1] Monetary Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for further interest rate cuts to return rates to neutral levels, indicating that current monetary policy rates are up to 100 basis points above neutral levels. He noted that this neutral rate would neither suppress growth nor elevate inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's CEO, Christoph Wouters, acknowledges a shift in demand from China, indicating a decline in orders due to the rise of local technology, marking a significant change in the company's outlook on the Chinese market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand from the Chinese market is transforming from "policy risk" to "order decline," with a forecasted significant drop in sales to China by 2026 [1]. - ASML's sales to China previously accounted for over one-third of its total revenue, but the competitive landscape is changing as local Chinese technology begins to erode this market share [1][5]. - Other Western companies, such as Applied Materials and Lam Research, are also expressing concerns about their reliance on the Chinese market, with significant portions of their revenues (37% for Applied Materials, 42% for Lam Research, and 44.4% for Tokyo Electron) coming from China [5]. Group 2: Technological Landscape - The narrative of Western technological superiority is being challenged as Chinese companies make significant strides in developing their own capabilities, moving away from a "copying" approach to a "system innovation" strategy [7][8]. - ASML's previous confidence in its technological edge is waning, as the gap in capabilities between Western and Chinese firms is narrowing, with the CEO indicating that the timeline for China to catch up is being compressed [8][11]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - ASML is attempting to maintain its market position by offering older technology models (like DUV equipment) to China, hoping to negotiate some leeway in the face of ongoing export restrictions [5][11]. - The company is caught in a dilemma between adhering to U.S. policies and maintaining trust with its largest customer, China, leading to a precarious balancing act [11].

这番话并非"良心发现"。从字里行间看，阿斯麦对中国的技术进步已感到焦虑，而这种焦虑直接关联到 订单数量——按公开披露口径，2024年阿斯麦对华销售占其总销售的比重约三分之一以上，而公司在随 后沟通中预计相关比重将走低，并提示未来需求面临回落压力。阿斯麦在相关沟通中预计，2026年来自 中国的需求将出现显著走弱。 背后原因也更现实：阿斯麦在对外沟通中将中国需求走弱与本土供给能力提升等因素联系在一起，担忧 其在华份额面临挤压。而DUV正是阿斯麦对华交付的主力型号；自2019年以来，阿斯麦对华EUV出口 许可长期未获荷方批准，背后伴随美方持续施压。 一句话：富凯口中的"平衡"，更像是在现实压力下为订单争取回旋空间。 来源：边解感 12月中旬，彭博把镜头对准了阿斯麦CEO克里斯托夫·富凯：AI订单把这家荷兰设备巨头推到风口，但 围绕对华出口限制的争议也被一并摆上台面。 富凯在这类公开表达里反复强调的重点，并不神秘：在国家安全与产业利益之间，欧洲企业无法用"一 刀切"去解决现实问题；真正让他警觉的，是中国市场的变化正在从"政策风险"变成"订单预期"。而在 更早的三季度业绩沟通中，阿斯麦已经直说，2026年来自中国的需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques a Reuters report on China's so-called "Manhattan Project" for semiconductor technology, suggesting that while the facts presented may not be false, the conclusions drawn are misleading and based on narrative manipulation rather than solid evidence [1][4]. Group 1: Narrative Techniques - Reuters employs a narrative style that combines real information with suggestive implications, leading readers to make unwarranted associations without direct evidence [1][2]. - The use of terms like "informed sources" and detailed descriptions creates an illusion of a verified evidence chain, despite the lack of substantial proof [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Misunderstandings - The emphasis on "reverse engineering" in the article is misleading, as it oversimplifies the complexities involved in high-tech industrial systems, where true innovation requires more than just disassembly [2][3]. - The article mentions key suppliers like Zeiss and advancements from institutions like the Chinese Academy of Sciences, but fails to provide new evidence that China has overcome critical technological barriers [3][4]. Group 3: Legal and Ethical Implications - The report insinuates illegal activities related to reverse engineering and espionage without presenting verifiable evidence, conflating attempts at technological advancement with unlawful actions [4][6]. - The notion that a successful technology path can be built on infringement and secrecy is fundamentally flawed, as it undermines trust and long-term viability in the global market [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques a Reuters report on China's alleged "Manhattan Project" for semiconductor technology, suggesting that while the facts presented may not be false, the conclusions drawn are misleading and based on narrative manipulation rather than solid evidence [1][4]. Group 1: Narrative Techniques - The report employs a narrative style that uses terms like "informed sources" and "engineers familiar with the situation" to create an impression of a well-supported argument, despite the lack of direct evidence [1][2]. - The article suggests that the mention of personnel movements, such as Lin Nan's recruitment by Huawei, is designed to imply a connection to reverse engineering without providing concrete proof of such a relationship [2][4]. Group 2: Technical Misunderstandings - The emphasis on reverse engineering in the article is misleading, as it overlooks the complexities involved in high-end industrial systems, where critical knowledge cannot be obtained merely through disassembly [2][3]. - The report fails to acknowledge that even if prototype machines exist, significant challenges remain in achieving operational success, particularly regarding the high dependency on advanced components and supply chains [3][4]. Group 3: Legal and Ethical Implications - The article attempts to create a narrative of espionage and illegal activities surrounding ASML's technology, yet lacks substantial evidence to support claims of wrongdoing [4][6]. - It argues that any technological advancement based on infringement and secrecy cannot achieve long-term success in the global market, as trust and collaboration within the industry are essential for sustainable development [6].

Technological Advancement - China reportedly possesses the capability to manufacture advanced chipmaking machines [1] - This advancement is attributed to Chinese former engineers from ASML, a Dutch company, who returned to China after gaining expertise [1] Talent Strategy Implications - The strategy of brain draining China may have unintended consequences, as skilled individuals can return to their home country with acquired knowledge [1]

The stock market experienced a turbulent day as investors offloaded tech and AI-related stocks, leading to a significant sector-wide selloff. For the day, the Nasdaq slid 1.8% to 22,693.32, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased nearly 0.5% to 47,885.97. The S&P 500 also finished Wednesday lower, down 1.16% at 6,721.43.These are the top stocks that gained the attention of retail traders and investors through the day.Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU)Micron Technology shares fell 2.93% to close at $225 ...