格隆汇10月13日｜杰富瑞：将阿斯麦控股公司目标价从660欧元上调至780欧元。 ...

然而，现实却非常残酷。过去的"配合"，如今变成了回旋镖，狠狠地反射到了阿斯麦身上。中国的稀土新规精准命中了它的软 肋——阿斯麦的机器离不开稀土，而这些稀土又几乎完全依赖中国及中国的技术。 这一事件不仅展现了中国在全球供应链中的掌控力，也让世界看到了中美博弈中的新一轮较量。美国企图通过芯片封锁打压中 国，而中国则通过控制稀土供应来"卡脖子"对方，形成了互相制衡的局面。 最近，中国商务部宣布对稀土及相关技术实施新的出口管制，这一举措不仅仅是一次普通的贸易调整，更像是一颗"稀土核 弹"，精准打击全球高科技产业链。消息一出，全球资本市场震动，尤其是荷兰的阿斯麦公司，曾经在过去几年配合美国实施 对中国的技术封锁，如今却发现，自己原本牢固的"天"突然坍塌。 阿斯麦是全球唯一能够生产最先进EUV光刻机的公司，被誉为芯片制造领域的"皇冠"。然而，这顶皇冠离不开中国稀土的支 撑。光刻机的核心激光系统、精密透镜以及磁悬浮装置等关键部件，都依赖于稀土元素。中国此次出台的稀土出口新规，直接 打击了阿斯麦的核心需求。 据彭博社报道，一位知情人士透露，在中国的新规下，阿斯麦的部分产品可能面临数周甚至数月的出货延迟。只要产品中含有 中国稀 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 过去五年，全球半导体制造几乎等同于一场光刻机的地缘政治。ASML的EUV光刻系统成为先进制程 的唯一通行证，任何想进入 5nm 以下节点的公司，都必须经由这台价值超过 3 亿美元、由 45 万个 零件组成的巨兽。 从苹果到台积电，从三星到英特尔，整个行业的创新速度被EUV产能和供应节奏间接锁定。 而另一边， 非EUV 领域——电子束直写（E-Beam Lithography）、 纳米压印（NIL ）、掩模直写 （ML2）——曾多次被寄予"平替"希望，却始终未能进入量产体系。它们像漂浮在摩尔定律边缘 的"幽灵技术"，时而被提起，又悄然沉寂。 然而，AI的爆发正悄然改变这一切。一台EUV光刻机，不可能为每一家AI公司开启一条产线。在先 进封装、异构集成、Chiplet、SiP等多工艺、多材料混合的环境中，光学光刻难以覆盖全部需求层 级。在这种需求转折点上，制造业开始寻找新的可能。那些曾被遗忘的"非EUV技术"正在以新的形式 回归。 6.5 万束电子光束光刻，瞄准AI芯片 SecureFoundry成立于2016年，总部位于沃斯堡，是一家兼顾国家安全与商业需求的半导体 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML, the leading producer of lithography systems, faces near-term challenges despite a strong performance in 2023, with a significant slowdown in 2024 due to various market pressures and geopolitical factors [3][4][10] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2023, ASML's net sales surged by 30% driven by increased shipments of DUV and EUV systems and a rise in service revenues as chipmakers ramped up AI chip production [3] - For 2024, ASML's net sales growth is projected at only 3%, with gross margins flatlining and EPS declining by 3% due to tough comparisons and reduced demand for non-AI chips [4] - Despite the slowdown in the first half of 2024, ASML's net sales and EPS showed double-digit growth over the past four quarters, largely supported by AI demand in the DRAM memory chip market [5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - ASML's financial metrics for upcoming quarters indicate a mixed outlook: Q2 2024 shows a net sales decline of 9.5%, while Q3 and Q4 are expected to rebound with growth rates of 11.9% and 28%, respectively [6] - Gross margins are projected to fluctuate around 51.5% to 54% from Q2 2024 to Q1 2025, with EPS growth expected to recover significantly in Q1 2025 at 92.9% [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts forecast ASML's revenue and EPS to rise by 14% and 25%, respectively, in the current year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% for revenue and 16% for EPS from 2024 to 2027 [7] - The company anticipates a 15% increase in net sales for the full year, with gross margins expected to rise from 51.3% to approximately 52% [6] Group 4: Challenges and Risks - ASML faces significant near-term challenges, including tightened export controls from the Chinese government and potential new tariffs from the U.S. government, which could impact sales forecasts [9][10] - The stock is currently valued at 34 times next year's earnings, raising concerns about whether the current valuation reflects too much optimism regarding AI growth [8]

中美的话题比较敏感，这篇文章我们简单聊一下彭博社的这个报道：全球半导体行业正为中国可能 的稀土出口限制做准备。报道里提到，中国的新出口控制是迄今为止最严格的一次。它针对的是稀 土矿物，这些材料在半导体生产中不可或缺。比如，用于芯片制造的精密激光、磁铁和其他设备， 很多都依赖稀土元素。中国控制了全球稀土供应的绝大部分，据数据，镝、铽、钆等关键元素的开 采和加工中，中国占比超过90%。其他国家像越南、日本、印度和俄罗斯，虽然也有一些产量，但 远不足以填补缺口。 周末稀土的话题还一直在发酵，大家讨论的越来越多。 昨天看了tuzhuxi的文章，觉得很有道理，其实这次的风波就是美国BIS的草台班子闹出来的一个乌 龙，有兴趣的读者可以看tuzhuxi的原文。 总体来说，这场摩擦让供应链企业不得不重新审视依赖性。世界最大的芯片制造商，包括Intel、台 积电和三星，都在努力多元化来源，但短期内很难摆脱对中国稀土的依赖。未来几个月，如果贸易 谈判没有进展，价格波动和供应中断可能会成为常态。 中美的话题比较敏感，很多东西不会在公众号中讲，资料都会放到星球。包括花旗的87页的中国稀土的 深度分析。 知识星球 星球中的资料越来越多 ...

10月9日，中国商务部一纸稀土出口管制升级令，让全球半导体产业链集体震动——新增中重稀土、加工装备及制成品管控，这记"重 锤"刚砸向ASML等依赖稀土的高端制造巨头，10月15日深圳湾芯展又爆出猛料：国产半导体设备企业新凯来将带来"意想不到的惊喜"。 从上游资源扼喉到下游技术突围，中国正以"组合拳"撕开全球产业链垄断壁垒，而这场较量的核心，直指被ASML垄断的光刻机霸权。 作为全球唯一能生产EUV光刻机的企业，ASML的技术皇冠上，稀土元素是不可或缺的"明珠"。无论是EUV的极紫外光源系统，还是 DUV的精密运动平台，钕铁硼永磁体、铒镱激光材料、钬掺杂光学玻璃等关键部件，都高度依赖中国主导的稀土精炼技术。数据显示， 中国占据全球90%以上的稀土分离提纯产能，仅钕、镝、铽等中重稀土的全球供应量中，中国占比就超过85%。 这次管制绝非"敲山震虎"。新规明确将冶炼设备、磁材产品及含中国稀土的制成品纳入许可清单，叠加"最终用途审查"——哪怕ASML的 供应商在欧美，只要链条中涉及中国稀土或技术，跨境调拨必须申请许可。 这意味着，ASML的供应链将陷入"步步审批"的泥潭：荷兰工厂的永磁体部件，可能因原料来自中国而被迫停 ...

以下文章来源于见闻历 ，作者龙玥 见闻历 . 每天多看我一眼，投资赚的多一点。 | WSCN Economic Calendar | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 时间 | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | 10月13日 周一 | | | | 待定 数据 | 中国 9月进口同比(按美元计) | 1.3% | | 待定 | 中国 9月出口同比(按美元计) | 4.4% | | 待定 | 国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行秋季年会 | | | 事件 待定 | 甲骨文Al World大会 | | | 17:45 | 诺贝尔经济学奖获奖人选公布 | | | 10月14日 周二 | | | | 数据 | 元 | | | 待定 | 美国总统特朗普与阿根廷总统米莱会晤 | | | 待定 | 日本央行行长植田和男于10月14日至19日访问美国 | | | 待定 事件 | IMF的《全球金融稳定报告》和最新的《世界经济展望》将 发布 | | | 待定 | 美联储主席鲍威尔就经济和货币政策前景发表讲话 | | | 待定 | 美上诉法院裁定美关税非法，这些关税措施可以维持到10 月14日，以便美政府上诉 | | ...

Core Insights - The market is closely monitoring trade policy developments following President Trump's response to China's rare earth export curbs with higher tariffs [1] - A federal government shutdown may delay the release of key economic reports, but corporate earnings from major banks and semiconductor companies are anticipated [1][3] Corporate Earnings - Major financial firms such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and American Express are set to report earnings this week [2][5] - TSMC, the world's largest chip manufacturer, is expected to report a 40% revenue growth in the first half of 2025 due to strong AI chip sales [7] - Other financial institutions reporting include BlackRock, CitiGroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley throughout the week [6] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The ongoing government shutdown is likely to extend the blackout on economic data releases, affecting reports on retail sales, jobless claims, and housing starts [3][8] - Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak, coinciding with the release of the Beige Book economic update [9] Key Events and Conferences - Oracle's AI World conference begins on Monday, while Salesforce's Dreamforce event starts on Tuesday [7] - The bond market will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day, but major stock exchanges will remain open [4]

Core Insights - ASML Holding is uniquely positioned in the AI era, with significant revenue growth since FY 2020 [1] Company Overview - ASML's revenues have more than doubled in the four and a half fiscal years since FY 2020 [1] Industry Context - The company operates in a sector that is increasingly relevant due to advancements in artificial intelligence [1]

Core Insights - ASML Holding is uniquely positioned in the AI era, with significant revenue growth since FY 2020, more than doubling its revenues in the past four and a half fiscal years [1]. Company Overview - ASML Holding operates in the semiconductor industry, which is critical for AI technology development [1]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced substantial revenue growth, indicating strong demand for its products and services in the context of increasing AI applications [1].