Core Viewpoint - The current market downturn presents a valuable buying opportunity for American Express, particularly for long-term investors despite potential challenges in 2025 due to tariffs [2][11]. Company Overview - American Express is one of the largest credit card issuers in the U.S., with approximately 146.5 million cards in circulation by the end of 2024 [3]. - The company has a unique business model, with 66% of its revenue derived from credit card swipe fees and customer fees rather than net interest income [4]. Customer Base and Performance - American Express serves a wealthier customer base, with an average spending of $25,000 per card member in 2024 and write-off rates below 2% in Q4 2024, positioning it favorably during economic downturns [5]. Capital Returns - The company has a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders, with a 110% increase in dividends over the last decade and significant share repurchases totaling $5.4 billion in 2024 [6][7]. - The reduction in shares outstanding by 21% over the past 10 years enhances shareholder value through increased ownership stakes and EPS growth [7]. Stock Valuation - The current forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for American Express is 15, down from over 20 at the beginning of the year, indicating a significant discount for investors [9][10]. - Management anticipates long-term revenue growth of over 10% annually, which could lead to continued declines in the P/E ratio as the stock price stabilizes [10].

Core Viewpoint - American Express Company (AXP) shares have declined 21.3% year to date, underperforming the S&P 500's 14.1% decline, amid broader industry struggles and concerns over economic factors [1][4] Company Performance - American Express is now 8.9% closer to its 52-week low of $214.51, which may attract investors looking to buy the dip [4] - The company operates under a different business model compared to Visa and Mastercard, acting as both a card issuer and payment processor, which involves taking on full credit risk [5] - Despite the perceived risk, American Express relies on a wealthy, low-risk customer base, minimizing credit risk [6] Market Environment - Economists and traders have raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could impact American Express's banking segment by reducing net interest income [7] - Lower interest rates may stimulate consumer spending, potentially benefiting American Express's core credit card business [7] Valuation - American Express trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.70X, slightly above the industry average of 13.18X, but below its own five-year median P/E of 16.73X, indicating potential for upside [9] - In comparison, Visa and Mastercard have higher valuations, trading at forward P/E ratios of 26X and 29.49X, respectively [10] Financial Health - As of the fourth quarter, American Express held $40.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents with only $1.4 billion in short-term debt, indicating a strong liquidity position [12] - The company generated $14 billion in net cash from operations in 2024, supporting growth investments and shareholder returns [12] - American Express returned $7.9 billion through dividends and share buybacks, with a recent 17% increase in its quarterly dividend [12] Customer Base and Strategy - American Express has a loyal customer base with high card acquisition and retention rates, driving steady card fee revenue [13] - The company is focusing on marketing to younger generations, viewing them as long-term growth opportunities [13] - With a diversified customer base and solid financials, American Express is positioned for continued earnings and revenue growth [14] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings indicates a 14.5% year-over-year increase, with revenue growth estimates of 8.6% for 2025 and 8.3% for 2026 [15] - American Express has surpassed earnings estimates in the past four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 6.9% [15] Challenges - The company's expenses have been rising, with total expenses increasing by 22% in 2021 and 24% in 2022, which may pressure profit growth [17] - American Express is more exposed to domestic economic fluctuations compared to Visa and Mastercard, making it less flexible in adapting to non-card payment trends [18]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway has achieved a remarkable 40,000% increase in shareholder capital over the past 40 years under Warren Buffett's leadership, with American Express being a significant holding that may attract average investors [1] Company Overview - American Express represents 13.8% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, with the conglomerate controlling about one-fifth of the business [1] - The stock is currently trading 28% below its record high, influenced by a 10% drop on April 3 due to concerns over tariffs affecting spending [2] Competitive Advantage - American Express is considered a "wonderful" company due to its strong brand positioned as a premium offering in the credit card market [3][4] - The company benefits from a powerful economic moat, characterized by high annual fees, top-notch rewards, and valuable partnerships that attract high-spending consumers [5] - Its two-sided platform creates a network effect, enhancing value for both cardholders and merchants [6] Financial Performance - Over the past five years, American Express has seen revenue grow at a compound annual rate of 8.7%, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing at an annual pace of 11.9% [8] - Wall Street consensus estimates project EPS to grow at an annualized rate of 14.5% over the next three years, indicating strong bottom-line growth potential [9] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The stock's valuation has become more attractive, trading at about 16 times forward earnings, down from a peak forward P/E ratio of 21.2 [10] - Even if the valuation remains constant, projected EPS doubling in the next five years could lead to a 100% gain on the stock [11]

Group 1 - Fortune collaborated with Korn Ferry on a survey of corporate reputations, starting with approximately 1,500 candidates [1] - The candidates included the 1,000 largest U.S. companies ranked by revenue and non-U.S. companies from Fortune's Global 500 database [1]

Core Insights - The introduction of new tariffs, including a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, is expected to significantly impact consumer prices across various sectors, including electronics and groceries [3] - Experts recommend proactive financial planning to mitigate the effects of potential price hikes due to tariffs, emphasizing the importance of emergency funds and debt management [2][8] Financial Strategies - **Emergency Fund**: It is advised to bolster emergency savings to cover three to six months of expenses, especially in light of potential inflation from tariffs [1] - **Debt Management**: Paying off high-interest debt is crucial, as rising costs may lead the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, making variable-rate debts more expensive [4] - **Investment Diversification**: Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios with index funds and ETFs to manage market volatility caused by trade wars and tariffs [5] - **Certificates of Deposit (CDs)**: CDs currently offer rates above 4.00%, which may become more attractive if interest rates rise due to tariffs [6] - **Timing Major Purchases**: Consumers are advised to consider making significant purchases sooner rather than later to avoid potential price increases on imported goods [7]

Group 1: JPMorgan Chase - JPMorgan Chase recently announced a 12% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $1.40 per share [2][6] - The bank reported a net revenue of $177.6 billion for 2024, reflecting a 12% increase from the previous year, and a record net income of almost $58.5 billion, up 18% [3] - The commercial and investment banking division saw a significant 23% increase in net income, reaching nearly $25 billion, driven by strong financial market conditions [4] Group 2: American Express - American Express declared a 17% increase in its quarterly dividend, bringing it to $0.82 per share [7][11] - The company achieved a net revenue of just under $66 billion for 2024, a 9% increase from 2023, and a net income exceeding $10.1 billion, up 21% [7][8] - American Express added 13 million new cards during the year, setting a company record, and is projecting revenue growth of 8% to 10% for 2025 [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - American Express is a strong investment opportunity due to its resilient consumer base, fee-based model, and growing dividend, making it suitable for long-term holding. Group 1: Resilient Consumer Base - American Express targets affluent consumers, providing stability and healthy growth despite inflation, with a 10% year-over-year revenue increase and a 25% rise in earnings per share to $14.01 in 2024 [3][4] - The company is successfully reaching younger consumers, with millennials and Gen Z driving growth in fee-based premium cards, which are the fastest-growing segment in the industry [5][6] Group 2: Fee-Based Model - The fee-based structure of American Express creates loyalty and a recurring revenue stream, with card fees growing at 16% in 2024, accounting for nearly 13% of total revenue [7] - Approximately 70% of new card acquisitions are for fee-based cards, with expectations for continued mid- to high-teen growth in fees for 2025 [7][8] Group 3: Dividend Growth - American Express has a history of paying dividends since 1989, with a 200% increase over the past decade and a recent 17% increase from $0.70 to $0.82, reflecting management's confidence in the company's strength [9]

Group 1: Investment Strategy - Warren Buffett plans to hold eight stocks "indefinitely" and has recently increased his stakes in six of these companies [1][5] - Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio is valued at $285 billion, and Buffett is constantly looking for good deals within this portfolio [4][6] Group 2: Key Holdings - Two of the indefinite holdings are Coca-Cola and American Express, which have been held since 1988 and 1991 respectively [6][7] - Buffett has added to his position in Occidental Petroleum, spending approximately $35.7 million to acquire over 763,000 additional shares [9] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - Buffett's significant investment in Occidental Petroleum, totaling $12.7 billion in common stock and over $8 billion in preferred stock, indicates confidence in the stability or increase of crude oil prices [10] - The bullish outlook for oil is attributed to reduced capital spending during the COVID-19 pandemic, making it challenging to ramp up production to meet rising demand [11] Group 4: Japanese Trading Houses - Buffett has identified five Japanese trading houses—Mitsubishi, Itochu, Mitsui, Sumitomo, and Marubeni—as indefinite holdings, increasing stakes in all by more than one percentage point [14][15] - These trading houses are integral to Japan's economy, involved in diverse sectors such as energy, food resources, and healthcare, which mitigates risks from industry-specific downturns [16][17] Group 5: Valuation and Market Conditions - The current stock market is considered historically expensive, with the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio at 35.28, significantly above its 154-year average of 17.22 [19] - In contrast, the trailing-12-month P/E ratios for the Japanese trading houses range from 9 to 12, presenting attractive valuation opportunities amid a pricey market [20]

Core Insights - Investors in the Financial - Miscellaneous Services sector should consider Orix (IX) and American Express (AXP) for potential value opportunities [1] - The Zacks Rank system emphasizes companies with positive earnings estimate revisions, with IX currently rated 2 (Buy) and AXP rated 3 (Hold) [3][7] Valuation Metrics - IX has a forward P/E ratio of 9.34, while AXP has a forward P/E of 17.17, indicating IX may be undervalued [5] - IX's PEG ratio is 1.01, compared to AXP's PEG ratio of 1.26, suggesting IX has a better growth-to-price ratio [5] - IX's P/B ratio is 0.89, significantly lower than AXP's P/B of 6.12, further indicating IX's potential undervaluation [6] Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, IX holds a Value grade of A, while AXP has a Value grade of C, highlighting IX as the superior value option [6][7]

Core Insights - Dividends play a crucial role in investor returns, with 85% of the S&P 500's cumulative total return since 1960 attributed to reinvested dividends and compounding [1] - Companies that grow their dividends significantly outperform non-payers and those with static payouts, delivering 10.2% average annual returns from 1973 to 2023 compared to 4.3% for non-payers [2] - Payout ratios below 75% indicate greater financial flexibility for companies, allowing them to maintain or increase dividends during economic challenges [3] Company Summaries Costco - Costco operates a membership-based warehouse retail model that thrives in a competitive landscape, focusing on exceptional value through bulk purchasing [4] - The company has strong business fundamentals, with membership renewal rates exceeding 90% in the U.S. and Canada, generating reliable revenue from membership fees [5] - Despite a modest 0.51% dividend yield, Costco boasts a 12.6% 10-year dividend growth rate and a conservative 27% payout ratio, allowing for continued dividend growth and investment in expansion [6][7] Visa - Visa operates one of the largest payment processing networks globally, benefiting from powerful network effects that enhance its competitive position [8] - The company's business model generates exceptional margins with minimal capital expenditures, resulting in substantial free cash flow for business investment and shareholder returns [9] - Visa's 17.5% 10-year dividend growth rate and a disciplined 21.7% payout ratio reflect a balance between reinvestment and shareholder rewards, positioning it well for growth as economies transition to digital payments [10][11] American Express - American Express targets affluent consumers and businesses with its integrated payment and lending model, cultivating a loyal customer base through its premium brand image [12] - The company is expanding its merchant acceptance network while leveraging its closed-loop network for enhanced risk management and marketing effectiveness [13] - With a 1.24% dividend yield and a 10.7% 10-year dividend growth rate, American Express has a disciplined 20% payout ratio, providing capacity for future dividend increases as it focuses on younger consumers and small businesses [14][15]