Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: American Express (AXP) - American Express currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum potential [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting it is positioned for outperformance in the market [4] Price Performance - Over the past week, AXP shares increased by 2.81%, while the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry rose by only 0.1% [6] - In the last month, AXP's price changed by 6.82%, significantly outperforming the industry's 0.68% [6] - Over the past quarter, AXP shares have risen by 14.9%, and over the last year, they have increased by 55.3%, compared to the S&P 500's gains of 4.45% and 25.58%, respectively [7] Trading Volume - AXP's average 20-day trading volume is 2,354,050 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, 8 earnings estimates for AXP have been revised upwards, while only 1 estimate was revised downwards, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $15.16 to $15.33 [10] - For the next fiscal year, 5 estimates have moved upwards with no downward revisions, indicating positive earnings momentum [10] Conclusion - Given the strong price performance, positive earnings outlook, and high Momentum Style Score, AXP is recommended as a promising investment opportunity [12]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway maintains a strong focus on the financial sector through its public equity portfolio and insurance businesses [1] - American Express, Visa, and Mastercard are key holdings in Berkshire's portfolio, with potential for growth in 2025 and beyond [2] Company Performance - American Express has been a core holding for Berkshire since 1991, achieving a 58.4% gain in 2024, making it the third best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average [3][4] - American Express constitutes 15.9% of Berkshire's portfolio, significantly larger than Visa at 0.9% and Mastercard at 0.7% [5] Business Models - American Express operates a closed-loop payment network, contrasting with Visa and Mastercard's open-loop systems [6] - American Express issues its own cards, allowing for greater control over merchant fees and interest income, while Visa and Mastercard rely on banks for card issuance [7][8] Financial Metrics - American Express has a market cap of $220 billion, compared to $482 billion for Mastercard and $619 billion for Visa [9] - Over the last five years, American Express has delivered a total return of 154%, outperforming Mastercard and Visa [9] Valuation and Dividends - American Express has a forward P/E ratio of 20.5, lower than Visa's 28.6 and Mastercard's 32.3, indicating a more attractive valuation despite lower margins [10] - All three companies have increased dividends significantly over the past decade while repurchasing shares, leading to faster earnings per share growth [12][13] Market Trends - The transition from cash to digital and mobile payments is a long-term advantage for these companies, with Visa and Mastercard being recession-resistant [14] - Financials were the second best performing sector in 2024, with payment processors potentially being better buys due to lower cyclicality [15] Investment Strategy - Investing equally in American Express, Visa, and Mastercard is a reasonable approach for new investors, though individual research is recommended [16] - Visa is highlighted as a top pick among the three, benefiting from sustained economic growth and lower regulations [17]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced volatility on Friday, but all three major benchmarks recorded weekly gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.3% at 44,424, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 6,101, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.5% to 19,954 [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain the federal funds rate during its upcoming meeting, despite President Trump's call for immediate rate cuts [2][3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that any further rate cuts would depend on progress in addressing inflation concerns [4]. Inflation Concerns - The University of Michigan reported a rise in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.3% in January from 2.8% in December, marking the highest level since May 2024. Long-term inflation expectations also increased to 3.2% from 3.0% [5]. - Concerns regarding inflation were echoed in consumer interviews, linking them to anticipated policies such as tariffs [6]. Company Earnings and Stock Movements - American Express reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, driven by strong card member spending, and announced a 17% dividend increase. However, its stock fell 1.4% due to a full-year earnings per share forecast that did not meet some analysts' expectations [7]. - Verizon Communications saw a 0.9% increase in its stock after surpassing earnings expectations, aided by a 3.1% rise in wireless revenue attributed to price hikes and sales incentives [8]. - Novo Nordisk's stock surged 8.5% following positive early-stage results for its weight loss drug, Amycretin, with analysts suggesting the company deserves a higher valuation based on its growth outlook [9][10]. - Twilio's stock jumped 20.1% after the company presented financial targets for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 that exceeded analyst expectations, with analysts expressing confidence in the company's growth trajectory [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - American Express Company (AXP) reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $3.04, a 16% year-over-year increase, and total revenues of $17.2 billion, an 8.7% year-over-year improvement, both exceeding consensus estimates [1][2]. Financial Performance - The fourth-quarter earnings were driven by record high card member spending and fee growth, alongside new card acquisitions, particularly among Millennials and Gen-Z [3]. - Network volumes reached $464 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $458.7 billion [4]. - Total interest income was $6.1 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the consensus estimate of $6.2 billion [4]. - Provision for credit losses decreased by 10% year over year to $1.3 billion [4]. - Total expenses rose by 11% year over year to $13.1 billion, primarily due to increased customer engagement and marketing costs [5]. Segment Performance - The U.S. Consumer Services segment reported pre-tax income of $1.5 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, and total revenues of $8.3 billion, up 12% year over year [6]. - The Commercial Services segment's pre-tax income was $814 million, a 22% year-over-year increase, with total revenues of $4.1 billion, growing 8% year over year [7]. - The International Card Services segment saw a significant decline in pre-tax income to $34 million, down 76% year over year, despite total revenues improving 11% to $2.99 billion [8]. - The Global Merchant and Network Services segment reported pre-tax net income of $853 million, a 4% year-over-year increase, but total revenues declined by 2% to $1.9 billion [9]. Balance Sheet and Capital Deployment - As of December 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents were $40.6 billion, down from $46.6 billion at the end of 2023, while total assets increased to $271.5 billion [10]. - Long-term debt rose to $49.7 billion, and shareholders' equity improved by 8% year over year to $30.3 billion [10][11]. - The company repurchased 3 million common shares in the fourth quarter and plans to increase its dividend to 82 cents per share starting in the first quarter of 2025 [12]. Future Outlook - For 2025, AXP anticipates revenue growth between 8% and 10% from the 2024 level of $65.9 billion, with EPS expected in the range of $15-$15.5, indicating an 8.9% improvement from 2023 [13]. - The company projects long-term revenue growth of over 10% and mid-teens growth in EPS [14].

Core Insights - Young consumers, particularly millennials and Generation Z, are significantly contributing to the growth in credit card spending, especially for American Express, which reported double-digit increases in spending from these demographics in Q4 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - American Express reported total billed business of $376.7 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase on an FX-adjusted basis, although this growth was slightly below the 9% increase in overall U.S. consumer spending [2] - Spending by millennials and Gen Z accounted for 34% of U.S. consumer spending, with a notable increase of 16%, while older cohorts saw mid-single-digit percentage growth [3] - Commercial spending also grew, with a 4% year-over-year increase in Q4, and spending by U.S. small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) rose by 3%, while large and global businesses increased spending by 7% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - CEO Steve Squeri highlighted that the growth in billings was supported by robust holiday spending and expressed confidence in attracting new premium customers, particularly from younger demographics and small businesses [4] - Fee-based consumer premium cards are experiencing rapid growth, with American Express holding a 25% market share in this segment, which is particularly favored by younger consumers [5] - The CFO noted that spending was broad-based across various sectors, including travel, entertainment, goods, and services, with total loans and card member receivables increasing by 9% [6] Group 3: Credit Performance and Economic Outlook - American Express reported stable credit performance, with net write-off rates of card receivables at 1.9% in Q4, down from 2.1% at the beginning of the year and 2.2% pre-pandemic [6] - Delinquency rates remained stable at 1.3%, consistent with the previous year and lower than pre-pandemic levels [6] - Squeri noted that travel spending has accelerated alongside consumer confidence, indicating a positive outlook for both consumer and small business confidence [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance, based on management's current expectations, which are subject to risks and uncertainties [3] - The discussion includes non-GAAP financial measures, with comparable GAAP financial measures available in the earnings materials posted on the company's website [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - No specific data or metrics related to individual business lines were provided in the content Market Data and Key Metrics - No specific data or metrics related to individual markets were provided in the content Company Strategy and Industry Competition - No specific details on company strategy or industry competition were provided in the content Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance, indicating management's expectations for future performance [3] Other Important Information - Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements are included in the presentation slides and SEC reports [4] - All earnings materials, including GAAP financial measures, are available on the company's website [5] Q&A Session Summary - No Q&A session details were provided in the content

Market Overview - The S&P 500 reached a new all-time closing high, while the Nasdaq has led major indexes over the past week but lags over the past month [1] - Currently, major indexes are experiencing declines, with the Dow down by 118 points, S&P down by 10 points, Nasdaq down by 31 points, and Russell 2000 down by 5 points [2] Q4 Earnings Results - American Express (AXP) reported Q4 earnings of $3.04 per share, beating expectations by a penny, with revenues of $17.18 billion, slightly above consensus [3] - Verizon (VZ) also exceeded Q4 earnings expectations with $1.10 per share, and revenues of $35.68 billion, which was 0.79% above consensus [4] Economic Indicators - S&P flash Services PMI for January is expected to be 56.5, indicating growth but slightly below the previous month's 56.8 [5] - Existing Home Sales for December are projected to increase to 4.2 million from 4.15 million, indicating resilience in the housing market despite high mortgage rates [6] - Consumer Sentiment for January is expected to remain flat at 73.2, still below last year's April highs but showing potential for improvement due to recent market optimism [7]

Core Viewpoint - American Express reported strong financial results for the quarter ended December 2024, with revenue and earnings per share exceeding expectations, indicating solid underlying performance and potential for future growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $17.18 billion, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-over-year [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.04, up from $2.62 in the same quarter last year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.03 by 0.33% [1]. - The revenue matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a surprise of +0.01% [1]. Key Metrics - Book value per common share was reported at $40.88, slightly below the average estimate of $41.49 [4]. - Total Card Member loans amounted to $139.67 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $140.03 billion [4]. - Card billed business (Network volumes) reached $464 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $458.67 billion [4]. - Total Interest Income was $6.08 billion, compared to the average estimate of $6.19 billion [4]. - Total non-interest revenues were $13.14 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $13.07 billion [4]. - Net Interest Income was reported at $4.04 billion, below the average estimate of $4.12 billion [4]. - Discount revenue was $9.18 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $9.11 billion [4]. - Net card fees totaled $2.25 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $2.26 billion [4]. Stock Performance - Shares of American Express have returned +7.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.5% change [3]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3].

American Express Earnings Conference Call Q4'24 JANUARY 24, 2025 Summary Financial Performance ($ in millions; except per share amounts) | | Q4'24 | YoY% Inc/(Dec) | FY'24 | YoY% Inc/(Dec) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Revenues Net of Interest Expense | $17,179 | 9% | $65,949 | 9% | | FX-Adjusted* | | 10% | | 10% | | Net Income | $2,170 | 12% | $10,129 | 21% | | Diluted EPS** | $3.04 | 16% | $14.01 | 25% | | Adjusted EPS*** | | | $13.35 | 19% | | Average Diluted Shares Outstanding | 704 | (3%) | ...

American Express (AXP) came out with quarterly earnings of $3.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.03 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.62 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 0.33%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this credit card issuer and global payments company would post earnings of $3.27 per share when it actually produced earnings of $3.49, delivering a surprise of 6.73%.Over ...