Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway maintains a strong focus on the financial sector through its public equity portfolio and insurance businesses [1] - American Express, Visa, and Mastercard are key holdings in Berkshire's portfolio, with potential for growth in 2025 and beyond [2] Company Performance - American Express has been a core holding for Berkshire since 1991, achieving a 58.4% gain in 2024, making it the third best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average [3][4] - American Express constitutes 15.9% of Berkshire's portfolio, significantly larger than Visa at 0.9% and Mastercard at 0.7% [5] Business Models - American Express operates a closed-loop payment network, contrasting with Visa and Mastercard's open-loop systems [6] - American Express issues its own cards, allowing for greater control over merchant fees and interest income, while Visa and Mastercard rely on banks for card issuance [7][8] Financial Metrics - American Express has a market cap of $220 billion, compared to $482 billion for Mastercard and $619 billion for Visa [9] - Over the last five years, American Express has delivered a total return of 154%, outperforming Mastercard and Visa [9] Valuation and Dividends - American Express has a forward P/E ratio of 20.5, lower than Visa's 28.6 and Mastercard's 32.3, indicating a more attractive valuation despite lower margins [10] - All three companies have increased dividends significantly over the past decade while repurchasing shares, leading to faster earnings per share growth [12][13] Market Trends - The transition from cash to digital and mobile payments is a long-term advantage for these companies, with Visa and Mastercard being recession-resistant [14] - Financials were the second best performing sector in 2024, with payment processors potentially being better buys due to lower cyclicality [15] Investment Strategy - Investing equally in American Express, Visa, and Mastercard is a reasonable approach for new investors, though individual research is recommended [16] - Visa is highlighted as a top pick among the three, benefiting from sustained economic growth and lower regulations [17]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced volatility on Friday, but all three major benchmarks recorded weekly gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.3% at 44,424, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 6,101, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.5% to 19,954 [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain the federal funds rate during its upcoming meeting, despite President Trump's call for immediate rate cuts [2][3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that any further rate cuts would depend on progress in addressing inflation concerns [4]. Inflation Concerns - The University of Michigan reported a rise in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.3% in January from 2.8% in December, marking the highest level since May 2024. Long-term inflation expectations also increased to 3.2% from 3.0% [5]. - Concerns regarding inflation were echoed in consumer interviews, linking them to anticipated policies such as tariffs [6]. Company Earnings and Stock Movements - American Express reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, driven by strong card member spending, and announced a 17% dividend increase. However, its stock fell 1.4% due to a full-year earnings per share forecast that did not meet some analysts' expectations [7]. - Verizon Communications saw a 0.9% increase in its stock after surpassing earnings expectations, aided by a 3.1% rise in wireless revenue attributed to price hikes and sales incentives [8]. - Novo Nordisk's stock surged 8.5% following positive early-stage results for its weight loss drug, Amycretin, with analysts suggesting the company deserves a higher valuation based on its growth outlook [9][10]. - Twilio's stock jumped 20.1% after the company presented financial targets for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 that exceeded analyst expectations, with analysts expressing confidence in the company's growth trajectory [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - American Express Company (AXP) reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $3.04, a 16% year-over-year increase, and total revenues of $17.2 billion, an 8.7% year-over-year improvement, both exceeding consensus estimates [1][2]. Financial Performance - The fourth-quarter earnings were driven by record high card member spending and fee growth, alongside new card acquisitions, particularly among Millennials and Gen-Z [3]. - Network volumes reached $464 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $458.7 billion [4]. - Total interest income was $6.1 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the consensus estimate of $6.2 billion [4]. - Provision for credit losses decreased by 10% year over year to $1.3 billion [4]. - Total expenses rose by 11% year over year to $13.1 billion, primarily due to increased customer engagement and marketing costs [5]. Segment Performance - The U.S. Consumer Services segment reported pre-tax income of $1.5 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, and total revenues of $8.3 billion, up 12% year over year [6]. - The Commercial Services segment's pre-tax income was $814 million, a 22% year-over-year increase, with total revenues of $4.1 billion, growing 8% year over year [7]. - The International Card Services segment saw a significant decline in pre-tax income to $34 million, down 76% year over year, despite total revenues improving 11% to $2.99 billion [8]. - The Global Merchant and Network Services segment reported pre-tax net income of $853 million, a 4% year-over-year increase, but total revenues declined by 2% to $1.9 billion [9]. Balance Sheet and Capital Deployment - As of December 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents were $40.6 billion, down from $46.6 billion at the end of 2023, while total assets increased to $271.5 billion [10]. - Long-term debt rose to $49.7 billion, and shareholders' equity improved by 8% year over year to $30.3 billion [10][11]. - The company repurchased 3 million common shares in the fourth quarter and plans to increase its dividend to 82 cents per share starting in the first quarter of 2025 [12]. Future Outlook - For 2025, AXP anticipates revenue growth between 8% and 10% from the 2024 level of $65.9 billion, with EPS expected in the range of $15-$15.5, indicating an 8.9% improvement from 2023 [13]. - The company projects long-term revenue growth of over 10% and mid-teens growth in EPS [14].

Core Insights - Young consumers, particularly millennials and Generation Z, are significantly contributing to the growth in credit card spending, especially for American Express, which reported double-digit increases in spending from these demographics in Q4 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - American Express reported total billed business of $376.7 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase on an FX-adjusted basis, although this growth was slightly below the 9% increase in overall U.S. consumer spending [2] - Spending by millennials and Gen Z accounted for 34% of U.S. consumer spending, with a notable increase of 16%, while older cohorts saw mid-single-digit percentage growth [3] - Commercial spending also grew, with a 4% year-over-year increase in Q4, and spending by U.S. small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) rose by 3%, while large and global businesses increased spending by 7% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - CEO Steve Squeri highlighted that the growth in billings was supported by robust holiday spending and expressed confidence in attracting new premium customers, particularly from younger demographics and small businesses [4] - Fee-based consumer premium cards are experiencing rapid growth, with American Express holding a 25% market share in this segment, which is particularly favored by younger consumers [5] - The CFO noted that spending was broad-based across various sectors, including travel, entertainment, goods, and services, with total loans and card member receivables increasing by 9% [6] Group 3: Credit Performance and Economic Outlook - American Express reported stable credit performance, with net write-off rates of card receivables at 1.9% in Q4, down from 2.1% at the beginning of the year and 2.2% pre-pandemic [6] - Delinquency rates remained stable at 1.3%, consistent with the previous year and lower than pre-pandemic levels [6] - Squeri noted that travel spending has accelerated alongside consumer confidence, indicating a positive outlook for both consumer and small business confidence [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance, based on management's current expectations, which are subject to risks and uncertainties [3] - The discussion includes non-GAAP financial measures, with comparable GAAP financial measures available in the earnings materials posted on the company's website [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - No specific data or metrics related to individual business lines were provided in the content Market Data and Key Metrics - No specific data or metrics related to individual markets were provided in the content Company Strategy and Industry Competition - No specific details on company strategy or industry competition were provided in the content Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance, indicating management's expectations for future performance [3] Other Important Information - Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements are included in the presentation slides and SEC reports [4] - All earnings materials, including GAAP financial measures, are available on the company's website [5] Q&A Session Summary - No Q&A session details were provided in the content

Market Overview - The S&P 500 reached a new all-time closing high, while the Nasdaq has led major indexes over the past week but lags over the past month [1] - Currently, major indexes are experiencing declines, with the Dow down by 118 points, S&P down by 10 points, Nasdaq down by 31 points, and Russell 2000 down by 5 points [2] Q4 Earnings Results - American Express (AXP) reported Q4 earnings of $3.04 per share, beating expectations by a penny, with revenues of $17.18 billion, slightly above consensus [3] - Verizon (VZ) also exceeded Q4 earnings expectations with $1.10 per share, and revenues of $35.68 billion, which was 0.79% above consensus [4] Economic Indicators - S&P flash Services PMI for January is expected to be 56.5, indicating growth but slightly below the previous month's 56.8 [5] - Existing Home Sales for December are projected to increase to 4.2 million from 4.15 million, indicating resilience in the housing market despite high mortgage rates [6] - Consumer Sentiment for January is expected to remain flat at 73.2, still below last year's April highs but showing potential for improvement due to recent market optimism [7]

Core Viewpoint - American Express reported strong financial results for the quarter ended December 2024, with revenue and earnings per share exceeding expectations, indicating solid underlying performance and potential for future growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $17.18 billion, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-over-year [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.04, up from $2.62 in the same quarter last year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.03 by 0.33% [1]. - The revenue matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a surprise of +0.01% [1]. Key Metrics - Book value per common share was reported at $40.88, slightly below the average estimate of $41.49 [4]. - Total Card Member loans amounted to $139.67 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $140.03 billion [4]. - Card billed business (Network volumes) reached $464 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $458.67 billion [4]. - Total Interest Income was $6.08 billion, compared to the average estimate of $6.19 billion [4]. - Total non-interest revenues were $13.14 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $13.07 billion [4]. - Net Interest Income was reported at $4.04 billion, below the average estimate of $4.12 billion [4]. - Discount revenue was $9.18 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $9.11 billion [4]. - Net card fees totaled $2.25 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $2.26 billion [4]. Stock Performance - Shares of American Express have returned +7.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.5% change [3]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3].

American Express Earnings Conference Call Q4'24 JANUARY 24, 2025 Summary Financial Performance ($ in millions; except per share amounts) | | Q4'24 | YoY% Inc/(Dec) | FY'24 | YoY% Inc/(Dec) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Revenues Net of Interest Expense | $17,179 | 9% | $65,949 | 9% | | FX-Adjusted* | | 10% | | 10% | | Net Income | $2,170 | 12% | $10,129 | 21% | | Diluted EPS** | $3.04 | 16% | $14.01 | 25% | | Adjusted EPS*** | | | $13.35 | 19% | | Average Diluted Shares Outstanding | 704 | (3%) | ...

American Express (AXP) came out with quarterly earnings of $3.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.03 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.62 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 0.33%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this credit card issuer and global payments company would post earnings of $3.27 per share when it actually produced earnings of $3.49, delivering a surprise of 6.73%.Over ...

Revenue and Income Growth - Total revenues net of interest expense increased by 9% YoY to $17.179 billion in Q4'24, driven by growth in non-interest revenues and interest income[1] - Net income attributable to common shareholders rose 12% YoY to $2.139 billion in Q4'24, with diluted EPS increasing 16% to $3.04[1] - Total revenues net of interest expense after provisions for credit losses rose by 14% YoY in the U.S. Consumer Services segment, amounting to $7,468 million in Q4'24[14] - Non-interest revenues increased by 11% YoY to $5,314 million in Q4'24, contributing to a total of $20,137 million for FY'24, up 9% from FY'23[16] - Net interest income grew by 12% YoY to $2,938 million in Q4'24, with FY'24 total reaching $11,290 million, a 17% increase from FY'23[16] - Total revenues net of interest expense rose by 12% YoY to $8,252 million in Q4'24, with FY'24 total at $31,427 million, up 12% from FY'23[16] - Non-interest revenues increased by 4% YoY to $3,388 million in Q4'24, with FY'24 total reaching $13,219 million, up 2% from FY'23[17] - Net interest income grew by 35% YoY to $734 million in Q4'24, with FY'24 total at $2,640 million, a 43% increase from FY'23[17] - Total revenues net of interest expense rose by 8% YoY to $4,122 million in Q4'24, with FY'24 total at $15,859 million, up 7% from FY'23[17] - Non-interest revenues for Q4'24 increased by 11% YoY to $2,725 million, with FY'24 reaching $10,369 million, a 9% increase from FY'23[18] - Net interest income for Q4'24 rose by 17% YoY to $265 million, with FY'24 totaling $1,092 million, a 14% increase from FY'23[18] - Annualized Net Income for Q4'24 was $10,129 million, with a Return on Average Equity (ROE) of 34.6%[21] - Net Interest Income for Q4'24 was $4,038 million, with a Net Interest Yield on Average Card Member Loans of 11.8%[23] - U.S. Consumer Services Net Interest Income for Q4'24 was $2,938 million, with a Net Interest Yield of 12.7%[23] - Commercial Services Net Interest Income for Q4'24 was $734 million, with a Net Interest Yield of 11.1%[23] - International Card Services Net Interest Income for Q4'24 was $265 million, with a Net Interest Yield of 8.7%[23] - Adjusted Net Interest Income for FY'24 was $15,543 million, compared to $13,181 million in FY'23[23] Card Member Loans and Spending - Card Member loans grew 11% YoY to $133.995 billion in Q4'24, reflecting strong customer acquisition and spending[2] - Card Member loans increased to $139.674 billion in Q4'24, an 11% year-over-year growth[6] - Total Card Member loans increased by 11% YoY to $139,674 million in Q4'24[10] - Average proprietary basic Card Member spending in Q4'24 was $6,378, up 3% year-over-year[6] - Average proprietary basic Card Member spending for Q4'24 rose by 6% YoY to $6,003, with FY'24 reaching $22,965, a 7% increase from FY'23[18] - Average Card Member Loans for U.S. Consumer Services in Q4'24 were $89,178 million, up from $80,304 million in Q4'23[23] - Average Card Member Loans for Commercial Services in Q4'24 were $30,392 million, up from $25,608 million in Q4'23[23] - Average Card Member Loans for International Card Services in Q4'24 were $17,591 million, up from $15,862 million in Q4'23[23] Credit Quality and Provisions - Total provisions for credit losses decreased 10% YoY to $1.292 billion in Q4'24, reflecting improved credit quality[1] - Net write-off rate (principal, interest, and fees) for Card Member loans remained stable at 2.2% in Q4'24, consistent with Q4'23[10] - Credit loss reserves for Card Member loans grew by 11% YoY to $5,679 million in Q4'24[10] - Total other loans surged by 30% YoY to $9,232 million in Q4'24[12] - Credit loss reserves for other loans increased by 54% YoY to $194 million in Q4'24[12] - Net write-offs for other loans rose by 56% YoY to $53 million in Q4'24[12] - Total other receivables decreased by 2% YoY to $3,587 million in Q4'24[12] - Credit loss reserves for other receivables remained unchanged at $27 million in Q4'24 compared to Q4'23[12] - Net write-offs for other receivables increased by 75% YoY to $28 million in Q4'24[12] - Net write-off rate (principal, interest, and fees) remained stable at 2.6% in Q4'24, with FY'24 average at 2.7%, compared to 2.2% in FY'23[16] - Net write-off rate (principal, interest, and fees) increased to 2.7% in Q4'24, compared to 2.0% in FY'23[17] - Net write-off rate (principal only) for small business improved to 1.6% in Q4'24, down from 2.0% in Q4'23[17] - 30+ days past due as a % of total for small business decreased to 1.3% in Q4'24, down from 1.5% in Q4'23[17] - Net write-off rate (principal and fees) for Q4'24 decreased to 1.3%, with FY'24 reaching 1.4%, a decrease from 2.1% in FY'23[18] Expenses and Costs - Card Member rewards expenses increased 15% YoY to $4.430 billion in Q4'24, driven by higher customer spending[1] - Marketing expenses rose 31% YoY to $1.614 billion in Q4'24, supporting business growth initiatives[1] - Marketing expenses surged by 49% YoY in the U.S. Consumer Services segment, reaching $813 million in Q4'24[14] - Card Member rewards, business development, and Card Member services expenses grew by 15% YoY, reaching $7,345 million in Q4'24[14] - Salaries and employee benefits and other operating expenses decreased by 1% YoY, totaling $4,172 million in Q4'24[14] - Total expenses increased by 11% YoY across all segments, reaching $13,131 million in Q4'24[14] - Marketing expenses surged by 49% YoY to $813 million in Q4'24, contributing to a total of $3,051 million for FY'24, up 18% from FY'23[16] - Total expenses for Q4'24 in Global Merchant and Network Services decreased by 6% YoY to $1,035 million, with FY'24 totaling $3,044 million, an 18% decrease from FY'23[20] Capital and Liquidity - Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio remained strong at 10.5% in Q4'24, with total capital of $31.1 billion[4] - Return on average common equity improved to 36.1% in Q4'24, up from 33.0% in Q4'23, demonstrating strong profitability[2] - Return on Average Common Equity (ROCE) for Q4'24 was 36.1%, up from 33.0% in Q4'23[21] - Supplementary Leverage Ratio is calculated as Tier 1 capital divided by total leverage exposure, with a minimum requirement from Q4'24 onwards[15] - Interest expense for maintaining corporate liquidity pool and funding Card Member receivables is primarily represented[25] - Interest income from Other loans, interest-bearing deposits, and fixed income investment portfolios is primarily represented[25] Business Growth and Customer Acquisition - Cards-in-force grew to 146.5 million in Q4'24, a 4% increase year-over-year[6] - Proprietary new cards acquired in FY'24 totaled 13.0 million, compared to 12.2 million in FY'23[6] - Proprietary cards-in-force grew by 6% YoY to 46.3 million in Q4'24, with FY'24 total at 46.3 million, up 6% from FY'23[16] - Proprietary cards-in-force for Q4'24 increased by 4% YoY to 21.9 million, with FY'24 reaching 21.9 million, a 4% increase from FY'23[18] - Proprietary new cards acquired measure the effectiveness of the company's customer acquisition strategy[15] Segment Performance - International Card Services reported a 15% FX-adjusted growth in Q4'24[9] - Pretax income in the Commercial Services segment increased by 22% YoY, totaling $814 million in Q4'24[14] - Pretax income in the International Card Services segment declined by 76% YoY, amounting to $34 million in Q4'24[14] - Pretax segment income increased by 5% YoY to $1,545 million in Q4'24, with FY'24 total reaching $6,377 million, a 17% increase from FY'23[16] - Pretax segment income for Q4'24 in Global Merchant and Network Services grew by 4% YoY to $853 million, with FY'24 reaching $4,398 million, a 20% increase from FY'23[20] - Segment assets for Q4'24 in Global Merchant and Network Services decreased by 25% YoY to $17,712 million, with FY'24 reaching $17,712 million, a 25% decrease from FY'23[20] Network Volumes and Billed Business - Network volumes in Q4'24 reached $464 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase[6] - Billed business in Q4'24 was $408.4 billion, up 8% year-over-year[6] - Goods & Services spend accounted for 74% of Q4'24 billed business, growing 7% year-over-year[9] - Travel & Entertainment spend grew 10% year-over-year in Q4'24, accounting for 26% of billed business[9] - Billed business increased by 9% YoY to $174.0 billion in Q4'24, with FY'24 total reaching $654.8 billion, a 7% increase from FY'23[16] - Billed business increased by 4% YoY to $136.0 billion in Q4'24, with FY'24 total at $526.5 billion, up 2% from FY'23[17] - Billed business for Q4'24 grew by 11% YoY to $97.7 billion, with FY'24 reaching $366.9 billion, an 11% increase from FY'23[18] - Total network volumes for Q4'24 increased by 7% YoY to $464.0 billion, with FY'24 reaching $1,764.8 billion, a 5% increase from FY'23[20] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - Cash dividends declared per common share increased 17% YoY to $0.70 in Q4'24, reflecting strong cash generation[1] - Earnings allocated to participating share awards were $17M, $18M, $23M, $18M, and $14M in Q4'24, Q3'24, Q2'24, Q1'24, and Q4'23, respectively[15] - Dividends on preferred shares were $14M, $15M, $15M, $14M, and $15M in Q4'24, Q3'24, Q2'24, Q1'24, and Q4'23, respectively[15] Other Financial Metrics - Total assets increased 4% YoY to $271.461 billion in Q4'24, supported by growth in Card Member loans and cash equivalents[2] - Net interest yield on average Card Member loans including loans held for sale increased to 11.8% in Q4'24, up from 11.7% in Q4'23[10] - Net interest yield on average Card Member loans improved to 12.7% in Q4'24, with FY'24 average at 12.8%, up from 12.4% in FY'23[16] - Net interest yield on average Card Member loans including loans held for sale rose to 11.1% in Q4'24, up from 10.3% in Q4'23[17] - Card Member receivables decreased by 5% YoY to $24,945 million in Q4'24, with FY'24 total at $24,945 million, down 5% from FY'23[17] - Average fee per card in Q4'24 was $108, a 14% increase year-over-year[6] - Average fee per card is computed annually based on proprietary net card fees divided by average proprietary total cards-in-force[15] - Network volumes include billed business (Card Member spending) and processed volumes on cards issued under network partnerships[15] - Cards-in-force represent the number of issued and outstanding cards, excluding supplemental cards on consumer accounts[15]