BofA Securities analyst Robert F. Ohmes upgraded AutoZone, Inc. AZO from Neutral to Buy, raising the price forecast from $3900 to $4800.The analyst writes that the upgrade stems from growing confidence in AutoZone’s ability to perform well during economic downturns, continued market share gains across both DIY and professional customer segments, and the “potential inflation benefit” from price increases.Ohmes also cited improving dynamics in the used versus new car market, ongoing momentum in the Pro busine ...

智通财经5月21日电，美国银行全球研究将汽车零件零售商AutoZone公司的评级从中性上调至买入。 ...

Company Performance - AutoZone's stock closed at $3,880.15, showing no change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500 which fell by 0.39% [1] - Over the past month, AutoZone shares increased by 8.71%, lagging behind the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 12.4% and the S&P 500's gain of 13.07% [1] Upcoming Earnings - AutoZone is set to release its earnings report on May 27, 2025, with projected earnings of $37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 0.84% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $4.41 billion, indicating a 4.07% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, earnings are anticipated to be $149.99 per share and revenue is expected to reach $18.83 billion, representing increases of +2.63% and +1.82% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts are important as they reflect near-term business trends and analysts' confidence in AutoZone's performance [3] Valuation Metrics - AutoZone has a Forward P/E ratio of 25.87, which is higher than the industry average of 20.89, indicating a premium valuation [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.2, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.67, suggesting that AutoZone's expected earnings growth is factored into its valuation [7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 43, placing it in the top 18% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Group 1: O'Reilly Automotive and AutoZone - O'Reilly Automotive reported first-quarter earnings of $9.35 per share, missing market estimates of $9.94 per share, with quarterly sales of $4.14 billion compared to expectations of $4.17 billion [1] - Jim Cramer recommended AutoZone over O'Reilly Automotive, highlighting that AutoZone has outperformed the market by 10.81% annually over the past 15 years, with an average annual return of 22.06% and a current market capitalization of $62.8 billion [2] Group 2: ASML Holding and Lam Research - ASML Holding reported a first-quarter sales miss, with a sequential revenue decline of 16.75% from €9.3 billion in the fourth quarter [3] - Jim Cramer recommended Lam Research Corporation over ASML, indicating a preference for Lam Research due to ASML's recent performance [3] Group 3: Onto Innovation - Onto Innovation issued second-quarter guidance below market estimates, projecting adjusted EPS of $1.21-$1.35 versus estimates of $1.50, and expected sales of $240 million to $260 million compared to projections of $269.10 million [4] Group 4: Fluor - UBS analyst maintained a buy rating for Fluor but lowered the price target from $49 to $48 [5] - Fluor shares fell 0.5% to close at $38.53 [6]

Group 1: Kroger - Kroger's stock forecast indicates a 12-month price target of $67.06, with a current price of $68.91, suggesting a potential downside of 2.69% [3] - The company is expected to deliver significant capital returns to investors, including a $5 billion accelerated plan and $2.5 billion remaining on the existing authorization [3][4] - Despite a contraction in FQ4 2024 results, the organic adjusted comparable figure rose modestly, and growth is anticipated to return in 2025, supported by a reliable dividend [5][6] Group 2: Casey's General Stores - Casey's General Stores has a 12-month stock price forecast of $430.33, with a current price of $436.80, indicating a downside of 1.48% [9] - The company is growing through acquisitions and organic expansion, with revenue growth of 17% in Q3 driven by the acquisition of Fikes [9] - Casey's maintains a reliable dividend with a payout ratio of almost 15% of earnings, aiming to extend its history of annual distribution increases [11] Group 3: AutoZone - AutoZone's stock forecast shows a 12-month price target of $3,821.91, with a current price of $3,663.00, indicating an upside of 4.34% [13] - The company focuses on share buybacks instead of dividends, reducing its share count by over 3.25% year-over-year in FQ2, with $1.3 billion remaining for buybacks [14] - AutoZone is expected to continue modest single-digit growth, supported by a strong balance sheet and cash flow [15]

Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett - Warren Buffett, after 60 years of leadership, announced that Greg Abel will become CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of the year [1] - Buffett has significantly outperformed the S&P 500, essentially doubling its annual return over his career [2] - Berkshire Hathaway is known for its stability and has outperformed the S&P 500 during recent market volatility [5] Group 2: Altria - Altria has a strong historical performance, particularly in down markets, and is currently the domestic seller of Marlboro and other cigarette brands [8] - The company benefits from a recession-resistant business model, with a high-yield dividend and a record of raising dividends 59 times in the last 55 years [9] - Altria's stock is up 16.6% this year, outperforming both Berkshire and the S&P 500, and has shown resilience during past bear markets [10][12] Group 3: AutoZone - AutoZone operates in the aftermarket auto parts sector, which tends to perform well during recessions as consumers prioritize repairs over new vehicle purchases [17] - The stock is up 17.8% year to date and has historically thrived during bear markets, gaining 22% during the financial crisis [18][19] - AutoZone has a pattern of accelerating sales towards the end of recessions, indicating strong potential for future performance [21][23] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite a recent 5% decline in Berkshire stock following Buffett's retirement announcement, the company remains a strong long-term investment due to its cash reserves of nearly $350 billion [24] - Investors looking to capitalize on potential bear markets may find Altria and AutoZone to be more attractive options based on their historical performance and business models [25]

Core Viewpoint - AutoZone, Inc. is set to release its third-quarter results on May 27, 2025, and will host a conference call to discuss these results [1] Group 1: Company Overview - AutoZone is the leading retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the Americas [3] - As of February 15, 2025, AutoZone operates a total of 7,432 stores, with 6,483 in the U.S., 813 in Mexico, and 136 in Brazil [2] - The company offers a wide range of products for various vehicle types, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, and accessories [3] Group 2: Commercial Operations - AutoZone has a commercial sales program that provides credit and prompt delivery of parts to various accounts, including repair garages and service stations [3] - The company also sells products through its websites, including www.autozone.com for retail customers and www.autozonepro.com for commercial customers [3] - AutoZone does not generate revenue from automotive repair or installation services [3]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry involves retail, distribution, and installation of vehicle components, including various parts and accessories [2] - The industry is characterized by fierce competition and is undergoing transformative shifts due to changing customer preferences and technological advancements [2] Factors Influencing the Industry Outlook - The average age of vehicles on U.S. roads has increased from 11.1 years to 12.6 years over the last decade, leading to higher demand for servicing and replacement parts [3] - Consumers are spending more on essential repairs and part replacements to maintain vehicle functionality, contributing to increased demand for auto parts [3] Expansion Efforts - Auto part dealers are expanding into new markets through strategic acquisitions and the establishment of mega hubs, which enhance market share and offerings [4] - Investment in digital platforms is aligned with consumer preferences for online transactions, allowing dealers to reach a broader audience and drive profitability [4] Capital Expenditure Trends - Auto part retailers are increasing capital expenditure to support growth, improve electronic catalogs, expand stores, and enhance supply chain and merchandising projects [5] - These investments may limit near-term cash flows but are essential for long-term business growth [5] Industry Performance and Rankings - The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale Parts industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 95, placing it in the top 39% of around 250 Zacks industries, indicating bright near-term prospects [6] - The industry has outperformed the S&P 500 and the Auto, Tires, and Truck sector over the past year, with a growth of 10.3% compared to the S&P 500's 8.3% [9] Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 30.99X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 18.31X and the sector's 16.34X [12] - Over the past five years, the industry's EV/EBITDA ratio has ranged from a high of 32.85X to a low of 18.68X, with a median of 24.15X [13] Company Highlights - **AutoZone**: A leading specialty retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts, expecting growth in fiscal 2025 driven by strong DIY and commercial performance, with year-over-year sales and EPS growth estimates of 1.78% and 2.74% respectively for fiscal 2025 [17][18] - **Genuine Parts Company (GPC)**: Strengthened by the acquisition of Motor Parts & Equipment Corporation, with a focus on restructuring to realize $100 million to $125 million in additional savings, and year-over-year sales growth estimates of 2.74% for 2025 [21][24] - **Advance Auto Parts (AAP)**: Improved liquidity from the sale of Worldpac for $1.5 billion, allowing a sharper focus on core business operations, with an impressive EPS growth estimate of 644.83% for 2025 [27][28]

Group 1 - AutoZone appointed Claire Rauh McDonough to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to 10 members [1][3] - Claire Rauh McDonough is currently the Chief Financial Officer of Rivian and has a background in investment banking, previously serving as a Managing Director at J.P. Morgan [2] - The addition of McDonough is expected to enhance the board's perspectives and deliberations, according to Bill Rhodes, Executive Chairman of AutoZone [3] Group 2 - As of February 15, 2025, AutoZone operates a total of 7,432 stores, with 6,483 in the U.S., 813 in Mexico, and 136 in Brazil [4] - AutoZone is a leading retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the Americas, offering a wide range of products for various vehicle types [5] - The company provides commercial sales programs and online purchasing options for both retail and commercial customers, without deriving revenue from automotive repair or installation services [5]

Economic Environment and Trade Tariffs - The new economic environment is influenced by trade tariffs implemented by President Trump, affecting consumer psychology and business purchasing decisions [1][2] - The exemption of auto parts and manufacturers from these tariffs is expected to alleviate some concerns in the automotive sector [2] Auto Parts Sales Performance - Auto parts and dealer sales experienced a significant increase of 5.3% in March, reversing a previous contraction trend [4] - This surge is attributed to consumer behavior, as buyers anticipate rising prices due to tariffs [5] Investment Opportunities in Auto Parts Stocks - Three stocks are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the recent sales shift: AutoZone Inc. (AZO), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY), and Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) [3][6] - AutoZone has seen substantial institutional investment, with $6.2 billion entering the stock over the past quarter [8] - O'Reilly Automotive maintains an Overweight rating from Wells Fargo, with a price target of $1,550, indicating a potential 12% upside [11][12] - Advance Auto Parts is viewed as an asymmetric opportunity, trading at 40% of its 52-week high, with a consensus price target of $45.1, suggesting a 42% upside [15][16] Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The decline in short interest for AutoZone indicates a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness [10] - Analysts project a significant earnings growth for O'Reilly, forecasting a 23% increase in EPS [13] - Advance Auto Parts is trading at a premium P/E ratio of 44.80, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth potential [17]