本文节选自《2025中国银行业竞争力研究报告》。 21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 2025年，全球经济增长呈现"碎片化"特征，主要央行政策分化加剧外部不确 定性；国内经济总体保持平稳，但有效需求不足仍是主要挑战。在此背景下，中国银行业展现出较强韧 性：三季度上市银行净息差出现企稳迹象，中收修复提速，资产质量总体可控，信贷结构持续向新质生 产力领域优化。同时，金融监管体系在"防风险、强监管、促发展"的主线下加速完善，一系列重磅政策 的出台为银行业的稳健运行与高质量发展构筑了坚实的制度基础。展望未来，在宏观政策协同呵护与监 管持续引导下，银行业有望在平衡风险与发展的道路上稳步前行。 一、外部宏观环境分析：碎片化复苏与政策分化并存 2025 年前三季度全球经济呈现 "弱修复" 特征。IMF 在秋季《世界经济展望》中将全球增长预期从 3.0% 上调至 3.2%，但这一修正并非源于增长动能增强，而是风险冲击的"边际缓和"。一是美国关税政策冲 击"弱于初始评估"，私营部门通过供应链重构实现了适应性调整；二是人工智能技术扩散带动的生产力 提升，尤其在美欧科技产业表现显著。 经济增长的"碎片化"特征显著。发达经济体中，美国增速预 ...

中国银行涨1.6%，报6.34元/股，股价再创新高，总市值突破2.04万亿元，成交额达2.16亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the top-performing stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index, showcasing significant gains and dividend yields for various companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Bank (601988 SH) leads with a 4.00% daily increase and an 18.30% year-to-date gain, along with a dividend yield of 3.69% [1] - Construction Bank (601939 SH) follows with a 3.15% daily rise and a 16.97% year-to-date increase, offering a dividend yield of 4.05% [1] - Postal Savings Bank (601658.SH) shows a daily increase of 3.14% and a year-to-date gain of 9.16%, with a dividend yield of 3.77% [1] Group 2: Notable Declines - Home Depot (002572.SZ) has a daily increase of 3.12% but a year-to-date decline of 13.44%, with a dividend yield of 7.42% [1] - Oppein Home Group (603833.SH) experiences a 2.86% daily rise but a significant year-to-date drop of 17.91%, with a dividend yield of 4.68% [1] - Kuka Home (603816.SH) shows a daily increase of 2.66% and a year-to-date gain of 18.23%, with a dividend yield of 4.59% [1] Group 3: Additional Performers - Huaxia Bank (600015.SH) has a daily increase of 1.86% but a year-to-date decline of 6.67%, with a dividend yield of 5.80% [1] - Beijing Bank (601169 SH) shows a daily increase of 1.39% and a slight year-to-date decline of 0.69%, with a dividend yield of 5.57% [1] - CITIC Bank (601998.SH) has a daily increase of 1.37% and a year-to-date gain of 19.02%, with a dividend yield of 4.35% [1]

Group 1 - The banking sector experienced significant movement on November 20, with China Bank (601988.SH) reaching a historical high of 6.33 CNY per share, while Construction Bank (601939.SH) rose by 4.73% and Postal Savings Bank (601658.SH) increased by 3.84%, leading to a 1.93% rise in the banking index (881155.TI) [1] - As of the midday close, China Bank's market-to-book ratio was 0.76, indicating that it has not yet recovered to above 1, with only Agricultural Bank and China Merchants Bank among 42 A-share listed banks having a market-to-book ratio greater than 1, reflecting investor skepticism about the banks' book values [3] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that in a low interest rate environment, the divergence between loan growth and bond investment growth in banks' asset structures may become more pronounced, suggesting a reversal in the competitive landscape of the banking system [3] - Open Source Securities indicated that bond market interest rates may have reached a favorable allocation point for state-owned banks, predicting significant bond purchasing activity in Q4, while emphasizing that bank valuations remain historically low and suggesting an increase in bank sector allocations [3] - The recommendation includes allocating to large state-owned banks like Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank as core holdings, while also suggesting core allocations to leading comprehensive banks such as China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Industrial Bank, with flexible allocations to Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3]

点评：央行开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作显示其积极调控市场流动性，以应对短期资金压力和稳定市 场利率。操作利率维持不变表明央行对当前经济环境持中性态度。 NO.2 中国银行回应股价创历史新高 据中证金牛座，11月20日，银行板块表现强势，中国银行涨超4%，股价再创历史新高。针对股价异 动，中国银行董事会办公室投资者关系团队相关工作人员表示："公司基本面未发生重大变化，目前正 持续关注股价波动情况。此次股价上涨，一方面得益于银行板块整体上涨趋势的带动，并非我行个例； 另一方面，公司三季报披露的主要经营数据保持稳健，基本面支撑下股价得到合理反映。" |2025年11月21日星期五| NO.1央行开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作 11月20日，央行开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作，投标量3000亿元，中标量3000亿元，操作利率为 1.40%，与此前持平。当日有1900亿元7天期逆回购到期。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） NO.3农发行与建设银行签订全面合作协议 11月19日，中国农业发展银行（简称"农发行"）与中国建设银行股份有限公司（简称"建设银行"）在京 签订全面合作协议。双方采用"总行+分行"签约形式，13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Veterans Affairs is enhancing financial services for veterans by collaborating with financial institutions to launch entrepreneurial loan products, aimed at supporting veterans in entrepreneurship and innovation [1] Group 1: Financial Services Collaboration - The Ministry of Veterans Affairs has signed a financial service cooperation agreement with Bank of China [1] - Bank of China will introduce a dedicated service called "Hui Jun Loan" for veterans [1] - A green approval channel will be established to facilitate the loan process for veterans [1] Group 2: Support for Entrepreneurship - The financial services will provide support in terms of collateral guarantees, interest rates, and credit limits for veterans [1] - The services will target high-tech enterprises founded by veterans and companies that employ a significant number of veterans [1] - Comprehensive financial services will be offered throughout the entire lifecycle of the businesses [1]

11月20日，中国银行党委书记、董事长葛海蛟与退役军人事务部党组书记、部长裴金佳在京举行工作会 谈，共同见证双方签署金融服务合作、专属保险和公益资金捐赠协议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown significant activity, with China Bank's stock price rising 4.00% to a record high, driven by overall sector trends and solid financial performance [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Bank's stock closed at 6.24 yuan per share, with a market capitalization surpassing 2 trillion yuan [1] - The banking sector's dividend yield is approximately 4% over the past 12 months, attracting conservative investors seeking stable returns [1] Group 2: Financial Data - As of the end of Q3, China Bank's total assets reached 37.55 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase from the end of last year [2] - For the first three quarters, China Bank reported operating income of 491.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 177.66 billion yuan, up 1.08% [2] Group 3: Dividend Distribution - China Bank has completed two dividend distributions for 2024, totaling over 71.3 billion yuan, and plans to distribute 1.094 yuan per 10 shares for the 2025 interim dividend, amounting to 35.25 billion yuan [2] - A total of 24 A-share listed banks have announced their 2025 interim dividend plans, with total cash dividends reaching 263.79 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The recent rise in bank stocks is attributed to a market style shift, with stable performance and attractive dividends driving investor interest [3] - The trend of dividend-driven stock purchases is expected to continue until the end of December, indicating positive prospects for bank stock prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is gaining attention in the capital market due to a combination of declining interest rates, policy support, and low valuations, leading to increased investment from long-term funds like insurance capital [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Insurance Capital Favoring Bank Stocks - Insurance capital seeks stable and reliable assets due to a mismatch in the average duration of liabilities (over 12 years) and assets (approximately 6 years), resulting in over 2 trillion yuan needing investment annually [1]. - Bank stocks are attractive due to their high dividend yields, low valuations, and low volatility, with an average dividend yield of 3.86%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.82% as of November 19, 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation and Stability of the Banking Sector - The banking sector's price-to-book ratio is at 0.63, indicating extreme low valuation and providing a safety cushion [2]. - The banking sector has shown a volatility of only 14.90% over the past three years, which is significantly lower than the 24.80% volatility of the CSI 300 index, making it suitable for long-term holding as a core asset [2]. Group 3: Impact of IFRS 9 on Insurance Companies - The implementation of IFRS 9 accounting standards requires insurance companies to estimate and recognize expected credit losses at the initial recognition of assets, affecting profits even before actual losses occur [2]. - This new standard encourages insurance companies to classify more equity investments as FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income), which helps to isolate short-term market fluctuations from profit statements, making bank stocks a suitable choice for long-term holding [2]. Group 4: Preferred Bank Stocks Among Insurance Capital - Insurance capital shows a preference for state-owned banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank due to their stable dividends and strong liquidity [3]. - Quality joint-stock banks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank are favored for their robust profitability and potential for valuation recovery [3]. - High-growth regional banks like Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank are also attractive due to their high ROE and asset quality, indicating potential for price appreciation [3]. - Hong Kong-listed bank stocks, such as CITIC Bank and Chongqing Bank, are appealing due to higher dividend yields and more attractive valuations [3]. Group 5: Implications for Ordinary Investors - For ordinary investors, bank stocks offer a combination of high dividends and low valuations, providing defensive characteristics and cash flow returns in the current market environment [5]. - As market trends shift towards stable returns, bank stocks can play a crucial role in balancing risk and securing stable dividends within an investment portfolio [5].

Core Insights - The state-owned large bank sector saw an increase of 0.89% on November 20, with China Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Bank Performance Summary - China Bank (601988) closed at 6.24, up 4.00%, with a trading volume of 7.232 million shares and a transaction value of 4.501 billion [1] - Construction Bank (656109) closed at 9.82, up 3.15%, with a trading volume of 2.242 million shares and a transaction value of 2.195 billion [1] - Postal Savings Bank (601658) closed at 5.91, up 3.14%, with a trading volume of 3.163 million shares and a transaction value of 1.858 billion [1] - Transportation Bank (601328) closed at 7.65, up 1.59%, with a trading volume of 2.688 million shares and a transaction value of 2.056 billion [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398) closed at 8.27, up 0.49%, with a trading volume of 3.595 million shares and a transaction value of 2.984 billion [1] - Agricultural Bank (601288) closed at 8.16, down 0.73%, with a trading volume of 3.089 million shares and a transaction value of 2.533 billion [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The state-owned large bank sector experienced a net inflow of 624 million in main funds, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 372 million [1] - The main fund inflows and outflows for individual banks are as follows: - Postal Savings Bank: 250 million inflow, 8.46% outflow from retail [2] - Construction Bank: 211 million inflow, 5.63% outflow from retail [2] - Transportation Bank: 200 million inflow, 7.11% outflow from retail [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank: 165 million inflow, 2.81% outflow from retail [2] - China Bank: 51.74 million outflow, 0.22% outflow from retail [2] - Agricultural Bank: 150.7 million outflow, 3.32% inflow from retail [2]