本周五，全球金融市场的目光将聚焦怀俄明州大提顿山脚下的杰克逊霍尔。 届时美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上发表讲话，市场密切关注他是否将为9月降息打开大门。目前货币市场交易 员预期，9月降息25基点的可能性达到80%。杰克逊霍尔会议历来是美联储传递政策信号的重要平台，2023年鲍威尔的讲话曾引导 市场预期9月的首次降息。 今年的会议主题定为 "转型中的劳动力市场：人口、生产率与宏观政策"。表面上是学术议题，但实际传递出的信号是：在通胀回 落之后，美联储正把重心重新移向就业。而在劳动力市场出现裂痕的当下，政策基调的微调，可能直接决定未来几个月的市场走 向。 与此同时，本次会议还可能涉及美联储框架审查的部分结果，多家大型投行预计鲍威尔可能部分扭转2020年会议上引入的弹性平 均通胀目标（FAIT）政策，重新平衡美联储对就业和通胀的双重使命。 聚焦鲍威尔对劳动力市场的看法 鲍威尔将于美国东部时间周五上午10点（北京时间周五晚10点）发表题为"经济展望与框架审查"的演讲。市场关注点在于他如何 评价7月就业报告中显示的美国劳动力市场疲软迹象，以及这些数据是否已足以促使美联储在9月会议上启动降息周期。 鲍威尔在 ...

Core Viewpoint - First Horizon Corporation will participate in the Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference on September 9, 2025, featuring key executives Bryan Jordan and Hope Dmuchowski [1] Group 1: Company Overview - First Horizon Corporation has $82.1 billion in assets as of June 30, 2025 [4] - The company operates in 12 states, primarily in the southern U.S., through its banking subsidiary, First Horizon Bank [4] - Services offered include commercial, private banking, consumer, small business, wealth and trust management, retail brokerage, capital markets, fixed income, and mortgage banking [4] Group 2: Recognition and Reputation - First Horizon has been recognized as one of the nation's best employers by Fortune and Forbes magazines [4] - The company is also listed as a Top 10 Most Reputable U.S. Bank [4] Group 3: Event Details - A live webcast and audio replay of the conference will be available on the First Horizon Investor Relations website [2]

Company Overview - Primo Brands Corporation is a leading North American branded beverage company focused on healthy hydration, offering a diverse range of products across various formats, channels, and price points [4] - The company has a comprehensive portfolio that includes well-known brands such as Poland Spring® and Pure Life®, as well as premium and regional brands [4] - Primo Brands operates a vertically integrated distribution network, reaching over 200,000 retail outlets and providing direct delivery services to consumers [4] Business Operations - The company offers multiple hydration solutions, including Direct Delivery, Exchange, and Refill services, catering to both home and business customers [4] - Primo Brands has over 80 springs and actively manages water resources to ensure a steady supply of quality drinking water [4] - The company is committed to sustainability, utilizing reusable packaging and helping to conserve over 28,000 acres of land across North America [4] Community Engagement - Primo Brands partners with the International Bottled Water Association to adhere to safety and quality standards, ensuring consumer protection [4] - The company invests in local and national programs and provides hydration solutions during natural disasters and community challenges [4] Upcoming Events - The CEO and CFO of Primo Brands will participate in a virtual fireside chat with Barclays on September 4, 2025, which will be webcast and archived for replay [1][2]

Group 1 - Ally Financial Inc. will have its Chief Financial Officer Russ Hutchinson present at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on September 9, 2025, at approximately 9:00 a.m. ET [1] - A live webcast of the conference will be available on Ally's Investor Relations website, with a replay also accessible afterward [1] Group 2 - Ally Financial Inc. is recognized as the nation's largest all-digital bank and has a leading position in the auto financing sector [2] - The company offers a range of financial services, including deposits, securities brokerage, investment advisory services, auto financing, and insurance [2] - Ally also has a corporate finance division that provides capital for equity sponsors and middle-market companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation and consumer prices in the U.S., highlighting that the expected transmission of tariff costs to consumer prices has not been as severe as anticipated, with companies absorbing costs to maintain profit margins [2][4][6]. Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight increase, but remains below expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly rose [2]. - Some industries severely affected by tariffs have seen price surges, yet July data indicates a relief in price pressures for certain goods, while service sectors are experiencing increased price pressures [2]. - JPMorgan's report suggests that companies are absorbing tariff costs at the expense of profit margins, with current profit margins at historical highs allowing for cost absorption without damaging capital or operational budgets [2][4]. Group 2: Tariff Rates and Consumer Impact - Barclays reports that the actual weighted average tariff rate in May was only 9%, lower than the previously estimated 12%, indicating that the impact of tariffs may be less than expected [2][4]. - The article notes that over half of U.S. imported goods benefited from tax exemptions, which has shifted demand away from high-tariff countries [3]. - Citi Research has not found significant evidence of widespread price pressure from tariffs, attributing recent service price increases to one-time factors [5]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Implications - Despite potential future tariff increases, Citi's chief economist predicts that consumers will not face significant price hikes due to weakening demand, which limits companies' ability to pass on costs [6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that consumers will bear a larger share of tariff costs, with the proportion expected to rise from 22% to 67% if current trade policies continue [6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the extent of tariff impacts on inflation for the Federal Reserve, as persistent inflation above the 2% target complicates monetary policy decisions [7].

股东名称持股数量(股)持股变化(股)占流通股比例变动比例巴克莱银行82.96万新进1.82%新进高盛公司 75.18万新进1.65%新进华泰金融控股(香港)有限公司－中国宏泽基金59.43万新进1.31%新进摩根士丹利 国际57.97万新进1.27%新进瑞银集团54.76万新进1.2%新进中金公司52.61万新进1.16%新进中国国际金融 香港资产管理有限公司－CICCFT10(R)43.21万新进0.95%新进中信证券资产管理(香港)有限公司－客户 资金35.85万新进0.79%新进中国国际金融香港资产管理有限公司－CICCFT8(QFII)35.27万新进0.77%新 进国泰海通35.24万新进0.77%新进 前十大流通股东累计持有532.48万股，累计占流通股比11.7% 。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方财汇数据库自动发布，任何在本文 出现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参 考，不构成个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分 辨或核验，因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Eurozone unexpectedly achieved a 0.1% economic growth in Q2, leading Barclays to raise its 2023 growth forecast from 0.8% to 1.1% [1] - The improved economic performance is reshaping the monetary policy outlook, with economists suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) may maintain the 2% benchmark interest rate unchanged in the upcoming September meeting [1] - The ECB is expected to have more time to observe economic conditions before making further rate hikes, as the resilience of economic growth provides a buffer against immediate policy changes [1] Group 2 - The Euro to USD exchange rate maintains a bullish bias in the short term, with initial support at 1.1590 and stronger support levels at 1.1530 and 1.1460 [2] - A key resistance level is identified at 1.1735, which has previously capped the exchange rate in July and August; a breakthrough above this level would signal the end of the corrective trend since early July [2] - If the resistance is effectively breached, the subsequent targets for the Euro to USD exchange rate would be the highs of 1.1789 from July 24 and 1.1830 from July 1 [2]

Group 1 - French Agricultural Credit Bank analysts indicate that Japan's corporate capital expenditure is expected to become cautious due to U.S. tariffs and concerns over global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Japan's economy in Q3 2025 [2] - Barclays Bank reports a surge in European high-yield bond issuance driven by refinancing needs and increased dividend payments, with issuance surpassing €80 billion since 2025, marking the second-highest level for the period [2] - ING analysts suggest that if geopolitical risks ease, the dollar may face downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. inflation data has led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance for the remainder of 2025, with expectations to pause rate cuts in September and December, providing key support for the pound [4]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank predicts a significant decline in bank reserves below $3 trillion in September due to the reconstruction of the U.S. Treasury account, quarterly tax payments, and bond settlements, but the risk of severe "funding squeeze" remains low due to market resilience and the Federal Reserve's backup tools [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Leading to Liquidity Drain - The report identifies three main drivers contributing to the sharp decline in reserves in September, particularly around mid-month [4]. - The U.S. Treasury plans to restore its cash balance at the Federal Reserve (TGA) to a target level of $850 billion, which will inherently withdraw liquidity from the banking system [5]. - The quarterly tax payment deadline on September 15 is expected to result in approximately $100 billion or more flowing into the TGA, with an additional $30 billion on the 16th [6]. - On September 15, there will also be about $80 billion in net coupon settlements, with over $100 billion in settlements by the end of the month [7]. - The combined impact of tax and bond settlements on September 15 could withdraw nearly $200 billion in reserves from the banking system, leading to total reserves dropping below $3 trillion in mid-September and further declining to below $2.9 trillion by the end of the month [8]. Group 2: Market Resilience - Despite the looming liquidity shock, Barclays believes the market is prepared to handle the situation [10]. - The market has demonstrated its absorption capacity, having "calmly" digested up to $350 billion in net short-term Treasury issuance in August, with only a slight increase in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) [10]. - The pace of Treasury issuance is expected to provide a buffer in the second half of September, with a net short-term Treasury issuance of approximately $30 billion, and the net issuance turning negative due to the maturity of cash management bills (CMBs) [10]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Backup Tools - The report emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is crucial for mitigating tail risks in the market [12]. - The SRF allows eligible counterparties to borrow cash from the Federal Reserve at a fixed rate, providing a reliable liquidity ceiling for the market [12]. - The Federal Reserve has been enhancing the effectiveness of the SRF, including adding morning operation windows before the end of the quarter to lower usage barriers [12]. - Additionally, the report mentions that the Federal Reserve may introduce term repo operations to provide longer-term liquidity support in response to fluctuations in the Treasury account [12]. Group 4: Market Pricing and Vigilance - The report analyzes whether the risks have been priced into the market, noting that reserves as a percentage of total bank assets will drop below 12% but remain slightly above the "adequate level sweet spot" of 11% [13]. - The September interest rate futures market indicates that SOFR is expected to be about 4 basis points higher than the federal funds rate, which Barclays considers a "fair" pricing reflecting a certain "insurance premium" for the mid-month reserve decline and quarter-end volatility [13]. - Overall, the report conveys a clear message that while September's liquidity tightening will be severe and rapid, the risk of a systemic funding squeeze is low due to existing market resilience and strong Federal Reserve support [13].

Core Insights - Barclays Bank reported a total market value of $252 billion for its Q2 2025 holdings, down from $353 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a decrease of approximately 34.33% [1][2] - The bank added 255 new stocks, increased holdings in 2,747 stocks, reduced holdings in 1,176 stocks, and completely sold out of 1,047 stocks during the quarter [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 37.06% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Overview - The largest holding is NVIDIA (NVDA), with approximately 100.84 million shares valued at about $15.93 billion, representing 6.32% of the portfolio, an increase of 14.2% in shares held [3][4] - Microsoft (MSFT) is the second largest holding, with around 26.97 million shares valued at approximately $13.41 billion, accounting for 5.33% of the portfolio, a decrease of 2.31% in shares held [3][4] - Apple (AAPL) ranks third, holding about 45.53 million shares valued at approximately $9.34 billion, which is 3.71% of the portfolio, with an increase of 1.91% in shares held [3][4] - Amazon (AMZN) is fourth, with approximately 36.38 million shares valued at about $7.98 billion, making up 3.17% of the portfolio, a decrease of 9.67% in shares held [3][4] - Tesla (TSLA) is fifth, holding about 20.51 million shares valued at approximately $6.51 billion, representing 2.59% of the portfolio, with an increase of 10.63% in shares held [3][4] Trading Activity - The top five purchases by percentage change in the portfolio were NVIDIA, Microsoft, Broadcom (AVGO), Tesla, and Meta [5] - The top five sales included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, Invesco QQQ Trust put options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF call options, Russell 2000 ETF put options, and Invesco QQQ Trust call options [6]