钛媒体App 9月29日消息，巴克莱银行策略师上周日在报告中表示，相对于美元和美国国债，黄金价格 似乎没有被高估；考虑到美联储可能失去独立性的风险性质，黄金价格应该包含一定程度的美联储相关 溢价。今年以来金价已飙升逾40%，受央行需求和美联储恢复降息刺激，金价迭创新高。金价势将连续 三个季度录得上涨。包括高盛集团和德意志银行在内的银行预计涨势将会持续。（广角观察） ...

Summary of FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Outlook Industry Overview - The document focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) and emerging markets (EM) macro strategy, particularly analyzing the US dollar's performance and its implications for various currencies and economic conditions. Key Points and Arguments US Dollar Stability and Growth Rebound - A potential rebound in US economic activity is expected to support dollar stability and favor risk-sensitive currencies that typically outperform during such conditions [1][3][11] - The dollar's resilience since June is viewed as temporary by market consensus, but several factors suggest a more solid backdrop for the dollar than generally appreciated [10][46] - The US economy is projected to grow at 2.0% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in every quarter of 2026, following a recovery from previous tariff impacts and easing financial conditions [21][24] Risks to Dollar Stability - The key risk to dollar stability is the Supreme Court ruling on Governor Cook, which could lead to a significant sell-off of the dollar if it signals a shift in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence [12][31][35] - Concerns about the Fed's independence are heightened due to potential changes in personnel and policy preferences that could lead to easier monetary settings, thereby weakening the dollar [31][36][38] Gold as a Hedge - Gold is recommended as a valuable hedge against inflationary risks, even after recent price rallies, due to its characteristics that align with those of safe-haven assets [13][57] Emerging Markets and Currency Performance - High-beta and high-carry segments of the emerging market FX universe are expected to benefit from improved growth prospects, stable dollar conditions, and low volatility [15][19] - The document anticipates that commodity currencies (e.g., AUD, CAD, NOK) will likely outperform the dollar in a risk-on environment, while defensive currencies (e.g., JPY, CHF, EUR) may underperform [27][30] CNY and Asian FX Influence - The stability of the Chinese yuan (CNY) is crucial for global FX dynamics, as it anchors the region's currencies and dampens volatility across FX markets [14][80] - The lack of potential for significant appreciation of the CNY implies limited downside for the USD, as Asian central banks are expected to continue absorbing USD to support trade performance [81][90] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The market currently anticipates rapid Fed cuts and a terminal rate below 3% by the end of 2026, which could lead to a weaker dollar if economic conditions deteriorate significantly [24][25] - The document suggests that if the adverse ruling on Cook occurs, there would be further downside risks to dollar forecasts, but absent this risk, a stronger dollar outlook would be maintained [16][36] Conclusion - The analysis indicates that while the dollar has shown resilience, various macroeconomic factors, potential legal rulings, and shifts in Fed policy could significantly impact its future performance. The interplay between US economic recovery, Fed independence, and global currency dynamics will be critical in shaping the FX landscape moving forward [57][96]

My thesis on the Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL ) is a pass on execution risks and major bottlenecks, like the higher distribution costs due to a lopsided Coinbase deal. If not for these execution risks, I may have considered ignoring macro pressures likeI am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a form ...

Core Insights - The UK is piloting "tokenized" sterling deposits, which are digital versions of bank deposits aimed at enhancing payment efficiency and security [1][2][4] - Major banks including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest, Nationwide, and Santander are participating in this pilot, which is set to run until mid-2026 [1][5] - The initiative is part of the UK's broader digital finance strategy, aligning with the Bank of England's efforts on digital money and securities [3][4] Group 1: Pilot Program Details - The pilot focuses on three main use cases: marketplace payments, remortgaging, and digital-asset settlement [2][6] - The goal of the pilot is to reduce fraud, accelerate settlement processes, and provide customers with greater control over their financial transactions [2][5] - Tokenized deposits are designed to be safer than privately issued stablecoins, as they remain within the regulated banking system [5][7] Group 2: Industry Collaboration and Support - The pilot is supported by technology from Quant, advisory from EY, and legal assistance from Linklaters, showcasing strong industry collaboration [5] - HSBC has indicated that there is significant client demand for tokenized deposits, particularly in cross-border payments, where they could lower costs and improve settlement times [6] - UK Finance emphasizes that tokenized deposits are digital representations of commercial bank money, maintaining the same protections as traditional deposits while offering enhanced programmability [4][5]

Core Insights - Financial giants are showing a bullish sentiment towards Jabil, with 57% of traders being bullish and 26% bearish in recent options trades [1] - The major market movers are focusing on a price range between $115.0 and $300.0 for Jabil over the last three months [2] - Jabil's options trading volume and open interest have been tracked, indicating significant liquidity and interest in the options market [3] Options Activity - The largest options trades observed include both puts and calls, with notable trades indicating a mix of bearish and bullish sentiments [8] - Specific trades include a bearish put sweep with a total trade price of $180.4K and a bullish call trade valued at $138.6K [8] Company Overview - Jabil Inc is a US-based company providing manufacturing services and solutions, focusing on electronics design, production, and product management [9] - The company operates in two segments: Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and Diversified Manufacturing Services (DMS), with EMS being the key revenue driver [9] Analyst Ratings - Recent analyst ratings for Jabil show a consensus target price of $261.0, with a Buy rating from B of A Securities and an Overweight rating from Barclays, targeting prices of $255 and $267 respectively [10][11] Current Market Position - Jabil's stock price is currently at $215.94, reflecting a 2.73% increase with a trading volume of 1,174,338 [13] - The next earnings report for Jabil is scheduled in 82 days [13]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Options Activity - Deep-pocketed investors are adopting a bullish approach towards Taiwan Semiconductor, indicating potential significant developments ahead [1] - There has been extraordinary options activity for Taiwan Semiconductor, with 179 notable trades, where 49% are bullish and 36% bearish [2] - The total volume of options trades today is 34,823, with a mean open interest of 1,979.51 [4] Group 2: Price Targets and Trading Insights - Significant investors are targeting a price range for Taiwan Semiconductor between $100.0 and $420.0 over the past three months [3] - Analysts propose an average target price of $325.0 for Taiwan Semiconductor, with Barclays maintaining an Overweight rating [13][14] Group 3: Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with a market share in the mid-60s projected for 2024 [11] - The company has a strong customer base, including major players like Apple, AMD, and Nvidia, benefiting from the shift to a fabless business model [11]

Core Insights - HSBC Holdings PLC and Barclays PLC are focusing on streamlining operations to enhance efficiency and concentrate on core businesses [1][2] HSBC Overview - HSBC is implementing a $1.5 billion cost-saving plan aimed at organizational simplification by 2026, with expected total severance and upfront charges of $1.8 billion [3] - The bank is winding down non-core operations in various regions while maintaining a focused presence in Asia and the Middle East, including divestments in multiple countries [4] - HSBC is expanding its wealth management business in Asia, particularly in China and India, through acquisitions and branch openings [5][6] - Despite these initiatives, HSBC's revenue generation has been subdued due to a challenging macroeconomic environment and weak loan demand [7] Barclays Overview - Barclays is simplifying operations and focusing on core businesses, including the sale of its stake in Entercard Group for $273 million and a collaboration with Brookfield to enhance its payment acceptance business [8] - The bank has made several acquisitions and divestments to bolster its lending capacity and mortgage business, including the acquisition of Tesco's retail banking business and the sale of $1.1 billion in credit card receivables [9] - Barclays has achieved gross savings of £1 billion in 2024 and aims for total gross efficiency savings of £2 billion by the end of 2026 [10] Performance Comparison - Year-to-date, Barclays' stock has increased by 52.8%, outperforming HSBC's 39.4% gain and the industry's 39.7% rally [12] - In terms of valuation, HSBC has a price/tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.30X, while Barclays has a lower P/TB ratio of 0.79X, indicating that Barclays is relatively inexpensive [14] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HSBC's 2025 earnings suggests a 7.4% year-over-year increase, while Barclays' estimates indicate growth of 22.3% for 2025 [17][21] - Analysts have revised HSBC's earnings estimates upward, indicating more optimism regarding its growth potential compared to Barclays [23] Investment Outlook - Barclays' restructuring efforts and capital redeployment are expected to lead to sustained profitability, while HSBC's strategic pivot to Asia may yield significant long-term gains [22] - HSBC's disciplined exit strategy and cost-saving plan are anticipated to improve returns, making it a more attractive investment option compared to Barclays [23][24]

Core Insights - Whales have shown a bullish stance on Centene, with 46% of trades being bullish and 46% bearish, indicating a balanced sentiment among large investors [1] - The total amount for put trades is $439,754, while call trades amount to $2,196,457, suggesting a stronger interest in calls [1] Options Activity - Over the last three months, whales have targeted a price range for Centene between $25.0 and $55.0 [2] - In the last 30 days, the volume and open interest for Centene's options have been analyzed, providing insights into liquidity and investor interest [3][4] Noteworthy Trades - Significant trades include bullish call options with a total trade price of $303.3K at a strike price of $25.00, and bearish call options with a total trade price of $261.1K at the same strike price [8] - Other notable trades include a bullish put option with a total trade price of $159.9K at a strike price of $37.00 [8] Company Overview - Centene is a managed care organization focusing on government-sponsored healthcare plans, serving 22 million medical members as of December 2024, with a majority in Medicaid [9][10] - The company also provides Medicare Part D pharmaceutical plans and has a military contract [10] Market Analysis - Analysts have provided ratings for Centene, with an average target price of $35.75, and individual targets ranging from $33 to $39 from various analysts [11][12] - The current trading volume for Centene is 5,833,297, with the stock price up by 2.31% to $35.19, indicating potential overbought conditions [14]

Core Insights - DB Insurance Co. has agreed to acquire Fortegra Group for $1.65 billion, marking the largest acquisition by a South Korean non-life insurer in the US [1][2] - The acquisition will enhance DB Insurance's presence in the US property and casualty market, as well as in the surety and warranty sectors [1] - This transaction is the first-ever purchase of a US insurer by a Korean non-life company, signifying a pivotal moment for DB Insurance in its global expansion strategy [2] Company Details - Fortegra Group, a unit of Tiptree Inc., has a portfolio in specialty insurance and operates in both the US and Europe [3] - The acquisition is subject to Tiptree's approval and is expected to close in mid-2026 [2] - Barclays Plc. and BofA Securities advised Fortegra, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. provided advisory services to DB Insurance [3]

Core Viewpoint - CS Venkatakrishnan, the CEO of Barclays, cautioned against imposing new taxes on the financial sector, arguing that such measures could hinder economic growth and competition [1][2][3] Group 1: Taxation Concerns - Venkatakrishnan warned that taxing the financial sector could "stifle competition" and "stifle growth," emphasizing the need to encourage growth rather than tax it out of existence [3][6] - The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has proposed a windfall levy on banks, which has raised concerns among industry leaders about its potential negative impact on the sector [3][6] - The IPPR estimates that losses from the Bank of England's quantitative easing program amount to £22 billion annually, advocating for a tax on deposits similar to one introduced in the 1980s [4][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - Venkatakrishnan stated that a windfall tax would lead to reduced hiring and less credit availability in the UK economy, as banks would be compelled to limit lending to businesses [6][7] - Charlie Nunn, CEO of Lloyds, echoed these sentiments, warning that a tax raid could damage the UK's growth ambitions [7] Group 3: Government Position - A Treasury spokesman affirmed the government's pro-business stance, highlighting that the financial services sector is central to their economic growth plans [8] - The government has initiated reforms aimed at enhancing investment and competitiveness in the financial sector, with a goal of making the UK the top destination for financial services firms by 2035 [8]