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金十整理:机构前瞻美联储利率决议(一)——7月会议只是“预热”,9月还是12月降息成争论焦点
news flash· 2025-07-30 05:21
2. 罗素投资:美联储料将维持利率不变,其将在9月议息会议前获得足够数据、评估时间及政策确定 性,从而在9月重启降息周期。 3. 富国银行:美联储料将维持利率不变,将会在今年秋季开始降息,至年底前共降息75个基点,这应有 助于缓解委员会面临的部分政治压力。 4. 宝盛银行:美联储料将维持利率不变,或在9月重启降息周期,私人消费停滞和投资计划减少将证 明,尽管通胀高于目标,降息也是合理的。 5. 澳新银行:美联储料将维持利率不变,鲍威尔可能在杰克逊霍尔年会上暗示利率正常化,叠加经济活 动、就业和通胀都在走弱,预计将在9月降息。 金十整理:机构前瞻美联储利率决议(一)——7月会议只是"预热",9月还是12月降息成争论焦点 9月重启降息 1. 高盛集团:美联储料将维持利率不变,仍预计其将在9月、10月和12月的会议上连续三次降息25个基 点,明年还会有两次降息。 年底前不会降息 1. 法巴银行:美联储料将维持利率不变,并将在年底前维持利率不变,直至确信关税效应的不确定性已 经基本消除。 2. 裕信银行:美联储料将维持利率不变,今年将仅在12月降息一次,这基于我们对关税将推高通胀且经 济能避免衰退的判断。 3. 野村 ...
Barclays(BCS) - 2025 Q2 - Quarterly Report
2025-07-29 14:48
[Performance Highlights](index=5&type=section&id=Performance%20Highlights) This section provides an overview of the Group's financial performance, capital position, and strategic targets for H1 2025 and Q2 2025 [H125 and Q225 Performance Highlights](index=7&type=section&id=H125%20and%20Q225%20Performance%20Highlights) Barclays reported strong H1 2025 results with a 13.2% RoTE, £14.9 billion income, and robust capital, on track for 2026 targets Key Financial Metrics for H125 and Q225 | | Income | Profit before tax | Attributable profit | Cost: income ratio | LLR | RoE | RoTE | EPS | CET1 ratio | Total capital return | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Q225** | £7.2bn | £2.5bn | £1.7bn | 59% | 44bps | 10.7% | 12.3% | 11.7p | 14.0% | £1.4bn | | **H125** | £14.9bn | £5.2bn | £3.5bn | 58% | 52bps | 11.4% | 13.2% | 24.7p | | | - The Group delivered a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of **13.2%** for H125 and **12.3%** for Q225, with Earnings Per Share (EPS) improving to **24.7p** for the half-year compared to **18.6p** in H124[22](index=22&type=chunk) - Total capital returns for H125 include a completed **£1bn** share buyback and a newly announced buyback of up to **£1bn**, plus a dividend of **3.0p** per share[22](index=22&type=chunk) - The CET1 ratio stood strong at **14.0%** After accounting for the newly announced **£1bn** share buyback, the pro-forma CET1 ratio would be **13.7%**, which is within the target range of **13-14%**[22](index=22&type=chunk) 2025 Guidance and 2026 Targets | Metric | 2025 Guidance | 2026 Targets | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **RoTE** | c.11% | > 12% | | **Capital Returns** | Progressive increase vs 2024 | Plan to return at least £10bn (2024-2026) | | **Group NII (excl. IB & HO)** | > £12.5bn | - | | **Group Total Income** | - | c.£30bn | | **Cost: Income Ratio** | c.61% | High 50s % | | **Gross Efficiency Savings** | c.£500m | c.£2bn by 2026 | | **Impairment (LLR)** | 50-60bps (through the cycle) | 50-60bps (through the cycle) | | **CET1 Ratio** | 13-14% target range | 13-14% target range | [Group Finance Director's Review](index=8&type=section&id=Group%20Finance%20Director's%20Review) This section provides the Group Finance Director's detailed commentary on overall financial performance, capital, and liquidity [Group Performance, Capital, and Liquidity](index=12&type=section&id=Group%20Performance%2C%20Capital%2C%20and%20Liquidity) Barclays achieved £5.2 billion profit before tax and 13.2% RoTE in H1 2025, with strong capital and liquidity - Group statutory income increased **12%** to **£14.9bn**, driven by higher income in Global Markets, structural hedge income, and the Tesco Bank acquisition[37](index=37&type=chunk) - The CET1 ratio increased by approximately **50bps** to **14.0%** from **13.6%** at year-end 2024 This was driven by a c.**100bps** increase from attributable profit, partially offset by a c.**50bps** decrease from shareholder distributions[37](index=37&type=chunk) - The Group's liquidity position remains strong, with the liquidity pool increasing to **£333.7bn** from **£296.9bn** at year-end 2024, and the average LCR rising to **177.7%**[37](index=37&type=chunk) - Key strategic developments in H125 include the completion of the sale of the German consumer finance business, which released c.**£3.3bn** of RWAs, and entering a long-term strategic partnership with Brookfield for the Payment Acceptance business[39](index=39&type=chunk) - The provision for motor finance matters remained unchanged in H125, but the ultimate financial impact remains uncertain pending legal and regulatory outcomes[39](index=39&type=chunk) [Results by Business](index=10&type=section&id=Results%20by%20Business) This section provides a detailed breakdown of the financial performance and key metrics for each of the Group's business segments [Barclays UK](index=10&type=section&id=Barclays%20UK) Barclays UK reported £1.6 billion profit before tax in H1 2025, with 18.6% RoTE, driven by income growth Barclays UK H125 Performance | Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £4,193m | £3,713m | 13% | | Profit before tax | £1,601m | £1,539m | 4% | | Attributable profit | £1,090m | £1,063m | 3% | | RoTE | 18.6% | 20.4% | | - Total income growth was driven by a **17%** increase in Net Interest Income (NII) to **£3.7bn**, benefiting from structural hedge momentum and the Tesco Bank acquisition, which offset pressure from retail deposit dynamics[51](index=51&type=chunk) - Credit impairment charges rose to **£237m** from **£66m** in H124, reflecting the impact of the Tesco Bank acquisition and a normalization from the prior year which benefited from an improved macroeconomic outlook[51](index=51&type=chunk) - Loans and advances increased by **£3.5bn** to **£211.2bn**, driven by growth in mortgages and cards lending, while customer deposits decreased by **£2.9bn** to **£241.3bn**[51](index=51&type=chunk) [Barclays UK Corporate Bank](index=13&type=section&id=Barclays%20UK%20Corporate%20Bank) Barclays UK Corporate Bank achieved 16.8% RoTE in H1 2025, with profit before tax increasing 18% to £435 million Barclays UK Corporate Bank H125 Performance | Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £1,003m | £877m | 14% | | Profit before tax | £435m | £368m | 18% | | Attributable profit | £284m | £248m | 15% | | RoTE | 16.8% | 16.6% | | - Net Interest Income (NII) increased by **22%** to **£701m**, driven by higher average deposit and lending balances, along with higher structural hedge income[54](index=54&type=chunk) - Total operating expenses rose **10%** to **£537m**, mainly due to a **£39m** litigation and conduct charge Operating costs increased **4%** reflecting investment spend[54](index=54&type=chunk) - Loans and advances grew to **£27.9bn** from **£25.4bn** at year-end 2024, reflecting a strategic focus on growing customer lending[54](index=54&type=chunk) [Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management](index=14&type=section&id=Barclays%20Private%20Bank%20and%20Wealth%20Management) PBWM achieved a strong 33.2% RoTE in H1 2025, with profit before tax increasing 18% to £234 million PBWM H125 Performance | Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £697m | £632m | 10% | | Profit before tax | £234m | £199m | 18% | | Attributable profit | £184m | £151m | 22% | | RoTE | 33.2% | 29.7% | | - Income growth was driven by higher deposit, invested asset, and loan balances from net new inflows and market movements, along with increased transactional activity[58](index=58&type=chunk) - Client assets and liabilities increased by **£4.5bn** to **£213.4bn** compared to year-end 2024, driven by growth in invested assets[58](index=58&type=chunk) [Barclays Investment Bank](index=15&type=section&id=Barclays%20Investment%20Bank) The Investment Bank delivered a strong 14.2% RoTE in H1 2025, with profit before tax up 25% to £3.0 billion Barclays Investment Bank H125 Performance | Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £7,180m | £6,347m | 13% | | Profit before tax | £3,010m | £2,411m | 25% | | Attributable profit | £2,075m | £1,614m | 29% | | RoTE | 14.2% | 10.8% | | H125 Income by Business Line | Business Line | H1 2025 Income (£m) | H1 2024 Income (£m) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Global Markets** | **4,982** | **4,132** | **21%** | | FICC | 3,149 | 2,553 | 23% | | Equities | 1,833 | 1,579 | 16% | | **Investment Banking** | **2,198** | **2,215** | **(1%)** | | Banking fees & underwriting | 1,212 | 1,296 | (6%) | | International Corporate Bank | 986 | 919 | 7% | - Global Markets income increased **21%** to **£5.0bn**, with FICC up **23%** due to strong performance in Macro and Credit, and Equities up **16%** reflecting growth in Prime and Derivatives[64](index=64&type=chunk) - RWAs decreased to **£196.4bn** from **£198.8bn** at year-end 2024, mainly driven by the strengthening of GBP against USD, which partially offset higher client and trading activity[64](index=64&type=chunk) [Barclays US Consumer Bank](index=17&type=section&id=Barclays%20US%20Consumer%20Bank) The US Consumer Bank achieved 7.3% RoTE in H1 2025, with profit before tax increasing 7% to £170 million Barclays US Consumer Bank H125 Performance | Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £1,687m | £1,678m | 1% | | Profit before tax | £170m | £159m | 7% | | Attributable profit | £128m | £119m | 8% | | RoTE | 7.3% | 7.2% | | - On a constant currency basis (USD), total income was up **7%** year-on-year[23](index=23&type=chunk) - Credit quality remained stable, with US cards 30-day arrears at **2.8%** (H124: **2.9%**) and 90-day arrears at **1.6%** (H124: **1.6%**)[71](index=71&type=chunk) - RWAs decreased to **£24.7bn** from **£26.8bn** at year-end 2024, driven by seasonality and the strengthening of GBP against USD[71](index=71&type=chunk) [Head Office](index=19&type=section&id=Head%20Office) Head Office reported a reduced loss before tax of £247 million in H1 2025, an improvement from H1 2024 Head Office H125 Performance | Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £136m | £30m | | Loss before tax | (£247m) | (£461m) | | Attributable loss | (£238m) | (£408m) | - The improved performance was largely due to the non-recurrence of a prior year loss on the sale of the Italian retail mortgage portfolio and lower litigation and conduct charges[75](index=75&type=chunk) - RWAs decreased to **£12.6bn** from **£16.2bn** at year-end 2024, primarily driven by the disposal of the German consumer finance business[74](index=74&type=chunk) [Quarterly Results Summary](index=20&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Results%20Summary) This section provides a high-level overview of the Barclays Group's quarterly financial performance and key metrics [Barclays Group Quarterly Results](index=32&type=section&id=Barclays%20Group%20Quarterly%20Results) This section summarizes Barclays Group's quarterly financial performance and key metrics from Q3 2023 to Q2 2025 Barclays Group Quarterly Performance (Q224 vs Q225) | Metric | Q225 | Q224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £7,187m | £6,324m | | Profit before tax | £2,484m | £1,938m | | Attributable profit | £1,659m | £1,237m | | RoTE | 12.3% | 9.9% | | Cost: income ratio | 59% | 63% | | Loan loss rate (bps) | 44 | 38 | | CET1 ratio | 14.0% | 13.6% | [Quarterly Results by Business](index=21&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Results%20by%20Business) This section presents the quarterly financial performance and key metrics for each of Barclays' individual business segments [Quarterly Results - Barclays UK](index=34&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Results%20-%20Barclays%20UK) This section details Barclays UK's quarterly financial performance, including income and credit impairment charges by sub-segment Barclays UK Quarterly Performance (Q224 vs Q225) | Metric | Q225 | Q224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £2,119m | £1,887m | | Profit before tax | £845m | £834m | | RoTE | 19.7% | 22.3% | | Loan loss rate (bps) | 14 | 1 | [Quarterly Results - Barclays UK Corporate Bank](index=38&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Results%20-%20Barclays%20UK%20Corporate%20Bank) This section details Barclays UK Corporate Bank's quarterly financial results, including income by segment and key performance metrics Barclays UK Corporate Bank Quarterly Performance (Q224 vs Q225) | Metric | Q225 | Q224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £519m | £443m | | Profit before tax | £228m | £200m | | RoTE | 16.6% | 18.0% | | Loan loss rate (bps) | 17 | 12 | [Quarterly Results - Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management](index=39&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Results%20-%20Barclays%20Private%20Bank%20and%20Wealth%20Management) This section provides a quarterly breakdown of Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management's financial performance and key metrics PBWM Quarterly Performance (Q224 vs Q225) | Metric | Q225 | Q224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £348m | £320m | | Profit before tax | £112m | £104m | | RoTE | 31.9% | 30.8% | | Client assets and liabilities | £213.4bn | £198.5bn | [Quarterly Results - Barclays Investment Bank](index=41&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Results%20-%20Barclays%20Investment%20Bank) This section details the Barclays Investment Bank's quarterly performance, including income breakdown by Global Markets and Investment Banking Barclays Investment Bank Quarterly Performance (Q224 vs Q225) | Metric | Q225 | Q224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £3,307m | £3,019m | | Profit before tax | £1,300m | £1,072m | | RoTE | 12.2% | 9.6% | | Global Markets Income | £2,320m | £1,845m | [Quarterly Results - Barclays US Consumer Bank](index=43&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Results%20-%20Barclays%20US%20Consumer%20Bank) This section outlines the Barclays US Consumer Bank's quarterly financial results, including income, profit, and key performance metrics Barclays US Consumer Bank Quarterly Performance (Q224 vs Q225) | Metric | Q225 | Q224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £823m | £819m | | Profit before tax | £115m | £100m | | RoTE | 10.2% | 9.2% | | Loan loss rate (bps) | 456 | 438 | [Quarterly Results - Head Office](index=45&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Results%20-%20Head%20Office) This section details the Head Office segment's quarterly financial results, including income, loss, and Risk Weighted Assets Head Office Quarterly Performance (Q224 vs Q225) | Metric | Q225 | Q224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | £71m | (£164m) | | Loss before tax | (£116m) | (£372m) | | Attributable loss | (£114m) | (£349m) | | Risk weighted assets | £12.6bn | £18.3bn | [Performance Management](index=28&type=section&id=Performance%20Management) This section focuses on key performance indicators, including net interest margins and the impact of the structural hedge program [Margins and Balances](index=46&type=section&id=Margins%20and%20Balances) The Group's Net Interest Margin (NIM) increased to 4.50% in H1 2025, driven by structural hedge and Tesco Bank acquisition Net Interest Margin (Group excluding IB and Head Office) | Period | Net Interest Margin (%) | | :--- | :--- | | H1 2025 | 4.50 | | H1 2024 | 4.16 | | Q2 2025 | 4.48 | | Q1 2025 | 4.51 | | Q4 2024 | 4.50 | | Q3 2024 | 4.29 | | Q2 2024 | 4.20 | [Structural Hedge](index=48&type=section&id=Structural%20Hedge) The structural hedge program stabilizes NIM on stable balance sheet items, contributing £2.8 billion in H1 2025 - The structural hedge program is designed to stabilize NIM on items like non-interest-bearing current accounts and equity by using interest rate swaps to create a more certain fixed-income stream[98](index=98&type=chunk)[99](index=99&type=chunk) - The Group has external derivatives designated as cash flow hedges with a net notional value of **£112.5bn**, reflecting a structural hedge notional of **£232.4bn** netted with non-structural positions[104](index=104&type=chunk) - Gross structural hedge contributions increased to **£2,778m** in H125, compared to **£2,222m** in H124[105](index=105&type=chunk) [Risk Management](index=30&type=section&id=Risk%20Management) This section outlines the Group's comprehensive risk management framework, principal risks, and detailed analysis of credit, market, and treasury risks [Risk Management and Principal Risks](index=49&type=section&id=Risk%20Management%20and%20Principal%20Risks) The Group's risk management is governed by the ERMF, identifying ten principal risks with no significant changes in H1 2025 - The Enterprise Risk Management Framework (ERMF) defines the Group's process for identifying principal risks and setting risk appetite[107](index=107&type=chunk) - The ten principal risks identified are credit, market, treasury and capital, climate, operational, model, compliance, financial crime, reputation, and legal risk No significant changes to these risks were reported in H125[108](index=108&type=chunk) [Credit Risk](index=50&type=section&id=Credit%20Risk) The Group's credit risk profile shows £352.8 billion in loans, a 52bps loan loss rate, and stable arrears across portfolios Total Loans and Advances at Amortised Cost (30.06.25) | Metric | Gross Exposure (£m) | Impairment Allowance (£m) | Coverage Ratio (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total** | **352,774** | **4,946** | **1.4** | - The annualised loan loss rate for the Group was **52bps** for H125[115](index=115&type=chunk) - Management adjustments to impairment models totaled **£167m** This includes a new economic uncertainty adjustment of **£87m** (**£70m** net of credit protection) introduced during the year to reflect heightened uncertainty in the US macroeconomic outlook[140](index=140&type=chunk)[146](index=146&type=chunk) - UK home loan 90-day arrears remained low and stable at **0.2%**, while new lending increased significantly to **£15.4bn** in H125 from **£9.2bn** in H124[192](index=192&type=chunk)[194](index=194&type=chunk) - US cards 30-day arrears decreased to **2.8%** (from **3.0%** at YE24) and 90-day arrears were stable at **1.6%**, in line with seasonal expectations[200](index=200&type=chunk) [Market Risk](index=85&type=section&id=Market%20Risk) The Group's average management Value at Risk (VaR) decreased 21% to £19 million in H1 2025 due to prudent positioning Management VaR (95%) by Asset Class | (£m) | Average H125 | High H125 | Low H125 | Average H224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Credit risk | 16 | 20 | 13 | 20 | | Interest rate risk | 15 | 25 | 5 | 14 | | Equity risk | 8 | 14 | 5 | 5 | | **Total management VaR** | **19** | **30** | **10** | **24** | - Average Management VaR decreased **21%** to **£19m** in H125 from **£24m** in H224, due to reduced leverage loan exposure and prudent risk positioning[208](index=208&type=chunk) [Treasury and Capital Risk](index=86&type=section&id=Treasury%20and%20Capital%20Risk) The Group maintained a strong capital position in H1 2025, with CET1 at 14.0% and robust liquidity Key Capital and Liquidity Ratios (as at 30.06.25) | Ratio | Value | | :--- | :--- | | CET1 Ratio | 14.0% | | Tier 1 Ratio | 17.8% | | Total Capital Ratio | 20.5% | | MREL Ratio | 35.4% | | UK Leverage Ratio | 5.0% | | Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) | 177.7% (average) | | Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) | 135.6% (average) | - CET1 capital increased by **£1.0bn** to **£49.5bn**, primarily due to **£1.9bn** of net capital generation from earnings, which offset a **£1.3bn** decrease in other qualifying reserves (mainly currency translation)[241](index=241&type=chunk)[242](index=242&type=chunk) - RWAs decreased by **£5.1bn** to **£353.0bn**, driven by a **£8.8bn** reduction from FX movements and a **£3.3bn** decrease from the disposal of the German consumer finance business, partially offset by an **£8.3bn** increase from business growth[243](index=243&type=chunk)[244](index=244&type=chunk)[245](index=245&type=chunk) - The Group's liquidity pool increased by **£36.8bn** to **£333.7bn** from year-end 2024[220](index=220&type=chunk) [Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=62&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This section presents the Group's condensed consolidated income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement for H1 2025 [Financial Statements Overview](index=101&type=section&id=Financial%20Statements%20Overview) The H1 2025 consolidated financial statements show £4.0 billion profit after tax and increased total assets and equity H125 Income Statement Summary | Metric | H1 2025 (£m) | H1 2024 (£m) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total income | 14,896 | 13,277 | | Profit before tax | 5,203 | 4,215 | | Profit after tax | 4,030 | 3,323 | | Attributable profit (to shareholders) | 3,523 | 2,787 | | Basic EPS | 24.7p | 18.6p | Balance Sheet Summary | Metric | As at 30.06.25 (£m) | As at 31.12.24 (£m) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total assets | 1,598,700 | 1,518,202 | | Total liabilities | 1,522,345 | 1,445,721 | | Total equity | 76,355 | 72,481 | - Total comprehensive income for H125 was **£4.9 billion**, a significant increase from **£2.3 billion** in H124, boosted by a **£1.7 billion** positive movement in the cash flow hedging reserve[254](index=254&type=chunk) [Financial Statement Notes](index=68&type=section&id=Financial%20Statement%20Notes) This section provides detailed notes to the financial statements, covering accounting policies, fair value measurements, and provisions for legal matters [Key Accounting Policies and Segmental Reporting](index=113&type=section&id=Key%20Accounting%20Policies%20and%20Segmental%20Reporting) Interim financial statements follow IAS 34, with consistent accounting policies and detailed segmental reporting of financial performance - The financial statements are prepared on a going concern basis, with directors satisfied that the Group has adequate resources to continue in business for at least 12 months[274](index=274&type=chunk) H125 Profit/(Loss) Before Tax by Segment | Segment | PBT (£m) | | :--- | :--- | | Barclays UK | 1,601 | | Barclays UK Corporate Bank | 435 | | Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management | 234 | | Barclays Investment Bank | 3,010 | | Barclays US Consumer Bank | 170 | | Head Office | (247) | | **Barclays Group** | **5,203** | [Fair Value of Financial Instruments](index=120&type=section&id=Fair%20Value%20of%20Financial%20Instruments) The Group held £763.3 billion in fair value assets, with Level 3 instruments totaling £23.9 billion, subject to sensitivity Assets and Liabilities at Fair Value by Hierarchy (30.06.25) | (£m) | Level 1 | Level 2 | Level 3 | Total | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total assets** | 120,120 | 619,283 | 23,919 | 763,322 | | **Total liabilities** | (41,275) | (604,758) | (6,133) | (652,166) | - The net balance of Level 3 instruments (assets minus liabilities) was **£17.8 billion** as of June 30, 2025[300](index=300&type=chunk) - Sensitivity analysis on Level 3 instruments shows a potential valuation impact ranging from a **£1,188m** increase to a **£1,249m** decrease, primarily affecting the income statement[308](index=308&type=chunk) [Provisions, Contingent Liabilities, and Legal Matters](index=128&type=section&id=Provisions%2C%20Contingent%20Liabilities%2C%20and%20Legal%20Matters) Total provisions were £1.36 billion, with ongoing uncertainty in motor finance and various legal and regulatory matters - Total provisions were **£1,364m**, with the largest components being for undrawn facilities (**£425m**), sundry provisions (**£364m**), and customer redress (**£295m**)[320](index=320&type=chunk) - The motor finance provision was reassessed at 30 June 2025 with no material adjustment made However, the ultimate financial impact remains uncertain and could be materially different from the amount provided[323](index=323&type=chunk) - The Group settled with the UK FCA in two separate investigations concerning financial crime systems and controls for a total of **£48m** (**£39m** for Barclays Bank PLC and **£9m** for Barclays Bank UK PLC)[39](index=39&type=chunk)[381](index=381&type=chunk) - Barclays continues to face various civil actions related to alleged manipulation of LIBOR, foreign exchange, and metals prices, with some cases settled and others under appeal[347](index=347&type=chunk)[353](index=353&type=chunk)[355](index=355&type=chunk) [Appendix: Non-IFRS Performance Measures](index=89&type=section&id=Appendix%3A%20Non-IFRS%20Performance%20Measures) This appendix provides reconciliations of key non-IFRS performance measures, such as RoTE and TNAV per share, to IFRS equivalents [Reconciliation of Non-IFRS Measures](index=143&type=section&id=Reconciliation%20of%20Non-IFRS%20Measures) This appendix reconciles key non-IFRS measures like RoTE and TNAV per share to IFRS, aiding consistent performance assessment Group RoTE Reconciliation (H125) | Metric | Value (£bn) | | :--- | :--- | | Attributable profit | 3.523 | | Average equity | 61.8 | | Less: Average goodwill and intangibles | (8.3) | | **Average tangible equity** | **53.5** | | **RoTE** | **13.2%** | TNAV per Share Reconciliation (30.06.25) | Metric | Value (£m) | | :--- | :--- | | Shareholders' equity | 62,640 | | Less: Goodwill and intangibles | (8,186) | | **Tangible shareholders' equity** | **54,454** | | Shares in issue (m) | 14,180 | | **TNAV per share** | **384p** | - Reconciliations are also provided for operating costs (excluding UK regulatory levies and litigation/conduct) and Group Net Interest Income (excluding the Investment Bank and Head Office)[406](index=406&type=chunk) [Appendix: Loan Loss Rate Calculations](index=93&type=section&id=Appendix%3A%20Loan%20Loss%20Rate%20Calculations) This appendix provides detailed calculations and quarterly trends of the Loan Loss Rate (LLR) for the Group and its business segments [LLR by Business and Quarter](index=150&type=section&id=LLR%20by%20Business%20and%20Quarter) This appendix details the Loan Loss Rate (LLR) calculations for the Group and its segments, including quarterly trends Loan Loss Rate (bps) by Segment - H125 vs H124 | Segment | H1 2025 LLR (bps) | H1 2024 LLR (bps) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Barclays UK | 21 | 6 | | Barclays UK Corporate Bank | 22 | 18 | | Barclays Private Bank & Wealth Management | (15) | (4) | | Barclays Investment Bank | 22 | 6 | | Barclays US Consumer Bank | 523 | 509 | | **Barclays Group** | **52** | **45** | Group Quarterly Loan Loss Rate (bps) | Quarter | Q225 | Q125 | Q424 | Q324 | Q224 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **LLR (bps)** | 44 | 61 | 66 | 37 | 38 | [Shareholder Information](index=96&type=section&id=Shareholder%20Information) This section provides essential information for shareholders, including dividend timetables and contact details [Key Dates and Contact Information](index=154&type=section&id=Key%20Dates%20and%20Contact%20Information) This section provides essential shareholder information, including the H1 2025 dividend timetable and contact details H1 2025 Dividend Timetable | Event | Date | | :--- | :--- | | Ex-dividend date | 7 August 2025 | | Dividend record date | 8 August 2025 | | Dividend payment date | 16 September 2025 | - The H1 2025 dividend is **3.0p** per ordinary share[288](index=288&type=chunk) [Glossary of Terms](index=97&type=section&id=Glossary%20of%20Terms) This section provides definitions for a wide range of financial, regulatory, and business-specific terms used in the report [Definitions](index=156&type=section&id=Definitions) This extensive glossary defines financial, regulatory, and business-specific terms used throughout the results announcement
Barclays(BCS) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-29 14:32
Financial Performance - Return on tangible equity (RoTE) was 13.2% in the first half of the year and 12.3% in the quarter, with total income growing 14% year on year to GBP 7.2 billion [2][3] - Costs increased by 5%, leading to a four percentage point improvement in the cost-income ratio to 59% [2] - All divisions generated a double-digit RoTE in Q2, with the Investment Bank's RoTE improving by 2.6 percentage points year on year to 12.2% [2][3] Business Line Performance - The U.S. Consumer Bank's RoTE improved by one percentage point to 10.2% [2] - Stable income streams now account for 40% of the Investment Bank's income, up from 29% in 2021 [5] - The Q2 group impairment charge was $469 million, equating to a loan loss rate of 44 basis points, with the UK credit picture remaining benign [6][7] Market Data - Total deposits increased by approximately GBP 4 billion year to date, with corporate deposit growth driven by the U.S. Dollar offering in the International Corporate Bank [19] - Consumer behavior remains resilient, with payment rates above pre-COVID levels and stable delinquency rates [7][58] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The three-year plan aims to deliver higher and more balanced returns, with a focus on operational improvements across divisions [3][4] - The acquisition of Tesco Bank and the deployment of £17 billion of business growth RWAs are part of the strategy to enhance returns [4] - The company aims to maintain a CET1 ratio of 13% to 14%, with a current ratio of 14% [9][10] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering RoTE guidance and targets by driving income growth and optimizing business mix [4] - The company is focused on improving the U.S. Consumer Bank's NIM and cost-income ratio while managing delinquency rates [30][31] - There are no significant concerns regarding consumer behavior, with spending patterns remaining stable [58] Other Important Information - The average liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) was 178%, representing GBP 135 billion in excess of regulatory requirements [17] - The MREL ratio was 35.4% as of H1, with over 70% of the £14 billion issuance plan completed [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the U.S. Consumer Bank fit with the rest of Barclays businesses? - Management believes the U.S. Consumer Bank can generate good returns, aiming for RoTE above 12% by 2026, with a focus on improving NIM and cost base [30][31] Question: If capital requirements were to drop, would the target CET1 ratio also drop? - Management stated that CET1 is considered over a long time horizon, and while regulatory changes are monitored, the target remains at 13% to 14% [36][37] Question: What is the target level for risk transfer trades? - Management indicated that they consider market capacity carefully and aim to maintain a size that allows for flexibility in response to market stress [42] Question: What areas of capital requirements should be eased? - Management noted that regulatory expectations will influence their target, but they will also consider investor expectations and peer comparisons [41][46] Question: Can you provide an update on NBFI exposure? - Management reported minimal exposure in Barclays Bank Delaware, with about $20 billion exposure in the New York branch to various MBFIs [68][70]
Barclays(BCS) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-29 14:30
Financial Performance - Return on tangible equity (RoTE) was 13.2% in the first half of the year and 12.3% in the quarter, with total income growing 14% year on year to GBP 7.2 billion [2][3] - Costs increased by 5%, leading to a four percentage point improvement in the cost-income ratio to 59% [2] - The group impairment charge for Q2 was $469 million, equating to a loan loss rate of 44 basis points [6] Business Line Performance - All divisions generated a double-digit RoTE in Q2, with the Investment Bank's RoTE improving by 2.6 percentage points year on year to 12.2% and the U.S. Consumer Bank's RoTE improving by one percentage point to 10.2% [2][3] - Stable income streams accounted for 40% of the Investment Bank's income, up from 29% in 2021 [5] Market Performance - The UK credit picture remains benign with low and stable delinquencies in consumer books and wholesale loan loss rates below expectations [6] - The U.S. Consumer Bank charge was GBP 312 million, stable year on year and down 22% versus the last quarter, with payment rates above pre-COVID levels [7] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The three-year plan aims to deliver higher and more balanced returns, with a focus on operational improvements across divisions [3][4] - The acquisition of Tesco Bank and the deployment of £17 billion of business growth RWAs are part of the strategy to achieve targets by 2026 [4] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering RoTE guidance and targets by continuing to drive income growth and operating leverage [4] - The company expects a group loan loss rate within the through-the-cycle guidance of 50 to 60 basis points for the full year 2025 [8] Other Important Information - The CET1 ratio was 14%, or 13.7% adjusted for the announced H1 buyback, aligning with the target range of 13% to 14% [9] - Total deposits increased by around £4 billion year to date, with growth in corporate deposits offsetting a slight contraction in consumer deposits [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the U.S. Consumer Bank fit with the rest of Barclays businesses? - Management believes the U.S. Consumer Bank can generate good returns, aiming for RoTE greater than 12% by 2026, with a focus on improving net interest margin and generating dollar deposits [30][31] Question: If capital requirements were to drop, would the target CET1 ratio also drop? - Management indicated that CET1 targets are considered over a long time horizon, and while regulatory changes are monitored, the current target remains at 13% to 14% [37][38] Question: What is the target level for risk transfer trades (SRT)? - Management stated that they consider market capacity when sizing SRT amounts and do not directly reflect it in loan pricing, viewing it as a risk management tool [44][45] Question: What areas of capital requirements should be eased? - Management noted that regulatory expectations will influence target CET1 ratios, and they are engaged in discussions with regulators regarding the overall regulatory framework [47][48] Question: Can you provide an update on NDFI exposure? - Management reported minimal exposure in Barclays Bank Delaware and IHC entities, with about $20 billion exposure in the New York branch to various MBFIs [69][70]
Barclays' Q2 Earnings Increase Y/Y on Growth in Revenues
ZACKS· 2025-07-29 13:56
Core Insights - Barclays reported a significant increase in net income for Q2 2025, reaching £1.66 billion ($2.22 billion), which is a 34% rise compared to the same quarter last year, driven by revenue growth and a strong balance sheet [1][8] Financial Performance - Total income for Barclays was £7.19 billion ($9.60 billion), marking a 14% year-over-year increase [2][8] - Operating expenses, excluding litigation and conduct costs, amounted to £4.15 billion ($5.54 billion), reflecting a 4% increase year-over-year [2] - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 59%, down from 63% in the previous year [2] - Pre-tax income rose to £2.48 billion ($3.31 billion), a 28% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] Balance Sheet Strength - As of June 30, 2025, total assets were £1,598.7 billion ($2,192.3 billion), up 5% from December 31, 2024 [3] - Total risk-weighted assets decreased by 1.4% to £353 billion ($484.1 billion) as of June 30, 2025 [3] - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio improved to 14%, compared to 13.6% a year earlier [3] Future Outlook - Barclays is expected to enhance its operating efficiency due to ongoing restructuring and business simplification efforts, with cost-saving initiatives likely to support financial performance [4] - Despite concerns regarding capital markets performance and rising credit impairment charges, a solid balance sheet and strategic buyouts are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [4] Peer Comparison - ICICI Bank reported a net income of INR127.7 billion ($1.5 billion) for Q1 fiscal 2025, up 15.5% year-over-year, driven by increased net interest income and loan growth [6] - Deutsche Bank reported a profit attributable to shareholders of €1.49 billion ($1.75 billion) for Q2 2025, a significant recovery from a loss in the same period last year [7][9]
Barclays: Make Hay While The Sun Shines
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-29 13:52
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment potential and market position of BCS, highlighting its long-term growth prospects and current market performance [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - BCS has shown a beneficial long position in its shares, indicating confidence in its future performance [1]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of consulting qualified investment advisors before making any trading decisions related to BCS [2]. - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and does not represent a formal investment recommendation [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The article notes that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a critical consideration for investors [3]. - It highlights that the views expressed may not reflect the broader consensus within the investment community [3].
Barclays(BCS) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-29 13:30
Financial Performance & Targets - Barclays achieved a Statutory RoTE of 12.3% in Q2 2025 and 13.2% in H1 2025 [5], and is aiming for >12% in 2026 [5, 8] - The total payout for H1 2025 was £1.4 billion, a 21% increase compared to H1 2024 [5] - The company targets income of approximately £30 billion for 2026 [6], with Group NII excluding Investment Bank and Head Office exceeding £12.5 billion in 2025 [6] - Barclays UK NII is expected to be greater than £7.6 billion in 2025 [6] - The cost: income ratio was 59% in Q2 2025 and 58% in H1 2025, with a target in the high 50s% for 2026 [6] Capital & Risk Management - The CET1 ratio stood at 14.0% in Q2 2025 [5], within the target range of 13-14% [5] - The Loan Loss Rate (LLR) was 44bps in Q2 2025 and 52bps in H1 2025, maintaining a through-the-cycle guidance of 50-60bps [6, 13] - The company plans approximately £14 billion in MREL issuance for 2025, with approximately £10 billion already issued year-to-date [27, 55] Liquidity & Funding - The average LCR was 178% in Q2 2025 [29] - The average NSFR was 136% in Q2 2025 [29] - The liquidity pool totals £334 billion, with 70% held in cash (£235 billion) [33] - The diverse and stable deposit base amounts to £565 billion, with H1 2025 deposit balances increasing by £4 billion [35] US Consumer Bank (USCB) - USCB average FICO score is 757 in Q2 2025 [72]
三大股指期货齐涨,诺和诺德下调2025年展望
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 13:04
Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.13%, S&P 500 futures by 0.30%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.47% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 1.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.55%, France's CAC40 up 1.10%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.02% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.07% to $66.76 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.13% to $69.41 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is not yet prepared to lower interest rates, with officials divided on the timing and evidence needed for such a decision [5] - The upcoming cryptocurrency policy report from the White House is anticipated to be a catalyst for the crypto market, alongside the Fed's interest rate decision [5] Company News - Oppenheimer raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7100 points, citing easing trade tensions and strong corporate earnings, indicating an 11% upside from the latest closing price [6] - Novo Nordisk lowered its 2025 sales growth and profit expectations, projecting sales growth of 8%-14% compared to a previous forecast of 13%-21% [7] - UnitedHealth's second-quarter earnings guidance fell short of expectations, forecasting adjusted EPS of at least $16, significantly below the analyst consensus of $20.40 [8] - UPS refrained from providing earnings guidance due to market volatility, reporting Q2 revenue of $21.2 billion, a 2.8% year-over-year decline [8][9] - Stellantis restored its earnings guidance but warned of a €1.2 billion (approximately $1.4 billion) tariff impact in the second half of the year [9] - Nomura Holdings reported a 52% year-over-year increase in Q1 net profit, driven by strong trading and investment banking performance [10] - Barclays announced a 23% increase in first-half profits and a $1.3 billion stock buyback plan, benefiting from market trading activity [11] - Whirlpool's Q2 sales fell 5.4% to $3.77 billion, below market expectations, and it lowered its full-year EPS guidance [12] - Philips slightly raised its adjusted operating margin forecast for the year, indicating that the impact of trade tensions was less severe than previously feared [13] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes the US wholesale inventory month-on-month change and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [14][15] - Earnings reports are expected from Visa, Booking, Starbucks, UBS, Rio Tinto, UMC, New Oriental, and HSBC [17]
Barclays(BCS) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-29 09:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Income grew by 14% year on year to GBP 7.2 billion, profit before taxes increased by 28% to GBP 2.5 billion, and earnings per share rose by 41% to 11.7p [3][4] - Return on tangible equity (RoTE) was 12.3% in Q2, up from 9.9% in the same quarter last year, with a cost-to-income ratio of 59%, improving by four percentage points year on year [4][15] - The CET1 ratio stood at 14%, supporting a £1 billion buyback announcement, up from £750 million in 2024 [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - All divisions generated double-digit RoTE in Q2, with the investment bank's RoTE improving by 2.6 percentage points year on year to 12.2% [6][15] - The U.S. Consumer Bank's RoTE increased to 10.2%, up from 9.2% in Q2 2024 [38] - Barclays UK reported a RoTE of 19.7%, with net interest income (NII) increasing by 16% year on year [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The group net interest income increased by 12% year on year to GBP 3.1 billion, supported by stable deposits and lending momentum [16][17] - The structural hedge is expected to deliver multiyear NII growth, with GBP 11.1 billion of gross structural hedge income locked in for 2025 and 2026 [18] - U.S. Consumer Bank's total income increased by 7% year on year, reflecting net receivables growth of 5% [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to achieving a return on tangible equity of approximately 11% in 2025 and more than 12% in 2026, focusing on operational improvements across divisions [5][9] - The three-year plan aims to produce higher and more balanced returns, with a target of deploying GBP 30 billion of business growth risk-weighted assets in the UK by 2026 [10][24] - Structural improvements are expected to drive higher returns and shareholder distributions, with a focus on deepening client relationships and enhancing operational efficiency [11][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the full objectives of the three-year plan, highlighting strong operational and financial progress [5][46] - The economic environment remains resilient, with low delinquencies and stable credit performance, supporting the outlook for future growth [21][72] - Management anticipates continued momentum in income growth and efficiency improvements, positioning the company well for future performance [9][80] Other Important Information - The company announced a total of GBP 1.4 billion in shareholder distributions for 2025, up 21% year on year, including a dividend of 3p per share [5][41] - The acquisition of Tesco Bank contributed to increased costs, but the company remains focused on achieving its cost-to-income ratio targets [19][27] - The company has maintained a strong liquidity position, with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 74% and a net stable funding ratio of 136% [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital position and distribution strategy - Management indicated that the capital position is comfortable post-buyback, with a focus on generating higher returns and progressive distributions [48][51] Question: Investment banking fees in a low volatility environment - Management acknowledged that while investment banking fees have been challenged, they expect deal activity to increase, benefiting future performance [50][58] Question: Impact of historic swap maturity on product margins - Management clarified that the swap maturity impact is an accounting timing issue, with expectations for improved product margins in H2 [62][68] Question: Impairment outlook for U.S. Consumer Bank - Management expressed confidence in maintaining impairment guidance, with expectations for normal seasonal trends and a manageable impact from the General Motors card acquisition [65][70]