Core Insights - Birkenstock's sales in the U.S. account for just over half of its total sales, but this percentage is declining as other regions experience growth [1] Group 1 - The company is facing challenges as it appears to hit rock bottom repeatedly, indicating ongoing struggles in the market [1]

Core Thesis - Birkenstock Holding plc is experiencing a stock pullback due to weaker than expected forward guidance, despite maintaining brand demand [2] Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2025, Birkenstock generated approximately €2.1 billion in revenue, with a market capitalization near €7 billion and earnings per share of €1.87 [3] - Profitability metrics include a return on equity (ROE) near 13%, return on invested capital (ROIC) close to 10%, and free cash flow consistently exceeding net income [4] Growth Expectations - Management's long-term revenue growth target was reduced from 20% to 15%-18%, and then to 13%-15% for fiscal year 2026, leading to investor disappointment [3] - Consensus growth expectations for the company range from high single digits to mid-teens, aligning with management's tempered outlook [5] Valuation - A conservative valuation assuming 9% EPS growth and a 9% discount rate yields a fair value near $48.62 per share, which is modestly above current trading levels [6] - The stock does not appear expensive, but governance concerns and guidance resets suggest caution [6] Governance and Market Dynamics - The company has an unusual governance dynamic, with management focused on its controlling shareholder, L Catterton, which owns 62% of the business [2] - The stock price has depreciated approximately 17.58% since previous bullish coverage due to lower guidance expectations [7]

Group 1: Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) Performance - Abercrombie and Fitch achieved record earnings-per-share in 2025, but shares are falling due to high expectations and profit-taking by investors [1] - Management's guidance for sales growth is in the middle of the previous range (at least 6%), which is seen as lukewarm by investors expecting stronger numbers [1][2] - The company incurred a $90 million tariff expense in 2025, which is expected to continue into 2026, putting pressure on margins [2] Group 2: Retail Market Dynamics - The retail market is experiencing a bifurcation, with high-end brands like ANF facing challenges while discount retailers are gaining strength [6][9] - Despite concerns, Abercrombie remains one of the strongest retail brands, with revenue expected to continue growing into 2027 according to Zacks Consensus Estimates [4] - The overall retail picture shows record-breaking global holiday sales of $1.29 trillion, but consumer confidence is weak, leading to a shift towards discount retailers [9] Group 3: Birkenstock Performance - Birkenstock shares initially dropped after earnings but rebounded as Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.14 beat estimates, and sales of $407.67 million exceeded expectations [8] - The company is expected to face modest headwinds to adjusted EBITDA margins due to planned ramp-up costs and initial under-absorption [8]

Group 1: Birkenstock Holding plc - For the fiscal first quarter 2026, Birkenstock expects revenue of 402 million euros, reflecting an 11.1% year-over-year growth on a reported basis and a 17.8% increase in constant currency [1] - Full-year results showed profits rose 81.8% to 348.3 million euros, with revenue increasing by 16.2% to nearly 2.1 billion euros [2] - CEO Oliver Reichert noted that strong wholesale growth is straining the supply chain due to capacity constraints [2] - Jefferies analyst Randal Konik described the earnings preannouncement as "solid," with revenue in line with expectations and luxury margins remaining intact [2] - William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia highlighted Birkenstock's strong brand health, with over 90% full-price sell-through [2] Group 2: Genesco Inc. - Genesco reported a 9% increase in comparable sales for the fourth quarter ended Dec. 27, 2025, with same-store sales rising by 10% [2] - The Journeys Group saw a 12% increase in comparable sales, while the Schuh Group rose by 6% and Johnston & Murphy Group increased by 1% [2] - Genesco's president and CEO Mimi Vaughn expressed satisfaction with holiday performance, attributing strong conversion and full-price selling to effective execution during peak demand periods [3]

Group 1 - TeamViewer SE (TMVWF) experienced a relief rally as proforma topline guidance was released ahead of a fuller report expected on February 10th [2] - The Valkyrie Trading Society, a team of analysts, focuses on high conviction and obscure developed market ideas that are downside limited and likely to generate non-correlated and outsized returns [2] - The Value Lab offers members a portfolio with real-time updates, 24/7 chat support, regular global market news reports, feedback on member stock ideas, new trades monthly, quarterly earnings write-ups, and daily macro opinions [2] Group 2 - The company has a beneficial long position in TeamViewer shares through German exchanges, indicating confidence in the stock's performance [3]

Group 1 - Birkenstock reported first-quarter preliminary revenue below Wall Street expectations [1] - Consumer spending on non-essential items has become more cautious due to rising economic uncertainty [1]

Core Insights - Birkenstock Holding plc expects fiscal first quarter 2026 revenue of €402 million, reflecting an 11.1% year-over-year growth on a reported basis and 17.8% in constant currency, primarily influenced by the depreciation of the US Dollar against the Euro [1] Financial Performance - The company will report its full fiscal first quarter financial results on February 12, 2026, before the US market opens, followed by a conference call and live webcast at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time [2] Company Overview - Birkenstock Holding plc is the parent company of Birkenstock Group B.V. & Co. KG, committed to promoting proper foot health and rooted in a shoemaking tradition dating back to 1774, offering a range of products from footwear to natural cosmetics [3]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank has resumed coverage of key stocks in the global brand, discount retail, and professional beauty sectors, expressing optimism as it enters 2026, anticipating a "risk-on" macro environment despite potential fluctuations [1] - Analyst Christina Katay noted that the revenue trend in the first half of the year will remain robust due to favorable weather conditions and increased tax refunds, which are seen as drivers for same-store sales growth [1] - The bank estimates that the "Great Beauty Act" will increase tax refunds by approximately $55 billion, with total tax refunds in 2024 projected at $461 billion [1] Group 2 - The expected tax refunds will primarily benefit low- to middle-income consumers facing cost-of-living challenges, while affluent households are anticipated to benefit from increased state and local tax (SALT) deductions [2] - Deutsche Bank has assigned a "Buy" rating to stocks including Amphenol (AS.US), Birkenstock (BIRK.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US), Ralph Lauren (RL.US), Ross Stores (ROST.US), and TJX Companies (TJX.US) [2] - The bank holds a more conservative view on stocks such as Bath & Body Works (BBWI.US), Burlington Stores (BURL.US), Nike (NKE.US), and Lululemon (LULU.US), assigning them a "Hold" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE:BIRK) is currently viewed as a strong buy stock, despite facing potential challenges in fiscal 2026, including a reduction in price target from $63 to $55 by Bernstein [1][2]. Financial Performance - For fiscal Q4 and the year ending September 30, 2025, Birkenstock reported a revenue growth of 16%, exceeding its guidance of 15-17%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.8%, reaching the high end of its guidance range [2]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 13-15% in constant currency for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, translating to reported revenue of EUR 2.30-2.35 billion, with a currency translation headwind of approximately 300-350 basis points [3]. Market Challenges - Birkenstock is expected to face gross margin headwinds of 200 basis points, which could significantly impact earnings growth, compounded by a higher anticipated tax rate [1].

Core Insights - The company reported a 16% revenue growth in constant currency for the third quarter, achieving double-digit growth across all segments and channels while improving profitability with a gross margin of 60.5% and an EBITDA margin of 34.4% [1][11][14] - The shift towards in-person shopping has positively impacted the brand, particularly in the B2B channel, which has outpaced DTC growth [5][12][32] Financial Performance - Third quarter revenues reached EUR 635 million, with a reported revenue growth of 12% impacted by foreign exchange fluctuations [11][12] - B2B revenue grew 18% in constant currency, while DTC grew 12%, with DTC's share of business decreasing to 38% [12][14] - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was EUR 116 million, reflecting a 26% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS rose to EUR 0.62, up from EUR 0.49 [14] Market Dynamics - Retail revenue at the top 10 wholesale partners in the U.S. increased by 25%, while EMEA saw a 20% increase, indicating strong sell-through and inventory turnover [5][8] - The company opened 13 new retail stores, aiming for a total of around 100 by the end of the fiscal year, which is expected to enhance DTC performance [6][9] Product Demand - Demand for classic leather silhouettes and iconic styles like Arizona and Boston remains strong, with closed-toe revenue share increasing by 400 basis points year-over-year [7][12] - The company anticipates that the APAC region will grow twice as fast as other segments for the full year, with a 24% revenue increase in constant currency [9][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on maintaining relative scarcity in distribution and has implemented price increases to manage the impact of tariffs, with no negative market response observed [17][30] - Investments in production capacity and efficiency improvements are ongoing, with a CapEx target of around EUR 80 million for the year [16][47] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve the high end of its constant currency revenue growth guidance of 15% to 17% for the fiscal year, despite anticipated currency headwinds [19][20] - The management remains confident in sustaining long-term growth and profitability objectives, with a net leverage target of approximately 1.5x by the end of fiscal '25 [16][17]