公 房地产 司 2024年03月 29日 报 中国海外发展(0688.HK) 告 逆势增长，韧性十足 推荐（维持） 事项： 公司发布2023年年报，2023年实现收入2025.2亿元，同比增长12.3 %；归 股价：11.26 港元 母净利润256.1亿元，同比增长10.1%，拟派末期股息每股港币45仙。 平安观点： 公 主要数据  多项核心指标逆势增长，龙头地位进一步巩固。2023年公司收入、归母净 司 利润、全口径销售额分别同比增长12.3%、10.1%、5.1%，全年克而瑞全 行业 房地产 年 公司网址 www.coli.com.hk 口径销售额排名升至行业前 3，市占率进一步提高；公司销售回款率高达 大股东/持股 中国海外集团56.1% 99%，同比增长6pct。区域布局上持续聚焦重点城市，一线及重点二线城 报 实际控制人 国务院国有资产监督管理委会 市销售额贡献占比达 74%，在 31 个城市市占率居当地市场前三。公司 点 总股本(百万股) 10944.9 2023年新增购地金额1440亿元，对应货值2640亿元，其中在一线和强 流通A股(百万股) 0 评 流通B/H股(百万股) 10944.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (00688.HK) [2][3] Core Views - The company achieved a double-digit growth in performance, with revenue increasing by 12.3% year-on-year to RMB 202.5 billion and net profit rising by 10.1% to RMB 25.6 billion, slightly exceeding market expectations [2] - The company has a robust land reserve and focuses on core first and second-tier cities, which positions it well for future growth despite industry challenges [2][3] - The financing cost remains low at 3.55%, and the company maintains a healthy financial position with key metrics in the "green zone" [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 202,524 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.3% [3] - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 25,610 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 2.34, with projections for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 2.41 and RMB 2.53 respectively [3] - The company’s gross margin and net profit margin were 20.3% and 12.6%, respectively, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [2] Sales and Land Acquisition Summary - The company reported sales of RMB 30,980 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - The land acquisition amount for 2023 was RMB 134.2 billion, up 21% year-on-year, with a focus on first and second-tier cities [2] - The total land reserve at the end of 2023 was 54.03 million square meters, with a significant portion located in high-potential urban areas [2] Future Outlook - The company aims for a sales target that remains stable in 2024, with an expected available-for-sale value of RMB 702.4 billion [2] - The commercial property revenue is projected to grow by 25% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a positive outlook for the commercial segment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Development (0688) [4] Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved revenue and net profit growth, with revenue reaching 202.5 billion RMB, up 12.3% year-on-year, and net profit at 25.6 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year. The report adjusts the EPS for 2024-2025 to 2.41 RMB and 2.62 RMB, respectively, and introduces a new EPS for 2026 at 2.89 RMB [3][8] - The company's revenue structure remains stable, with a slight decline in gross margin to 20.3%. The real estate development revenue was 192.9 billion RMB, up 11.8% year-on-year, while non-development revenue from commercial property operations increased by 20.9% to 6.4 billion RMB [3] - The company maintained investment discipline, with land acquisition intensity rising to 46.6% in 2023. The equity land acquisition amount reached 115 billion RMB, up 47.2% year-on-year, focusing on high-quality assets in major cities [3] - The financial performance is robust, with a weighted average financing cost of approximately 3.6%, among the lowest in the industry, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.5% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 202.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. Net profit was 25.6 billion RMB, up 10.1% [3][8] - Gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 20.3%, while net margin fell by 0.3 percentage points to 12.6% [3] Investment Strategy - The company increased its land acquisition intensity by 7.1 percentage points to 46.6%, with a focus on high-energy cities [3] - The average land acquisition price rose by 10.4% to 21,438 RMB per square meter [3] Market Position - The company continues to solidify its leading position in the industry through strategic investments in quality assets [3]

房地产/房地产开发 公 司 研 中国海外发展 营收利润双增，核心城市补仓坚守高质量发展 究 （00688.HK） ——公司信息更新报告 2024年03月29日 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（联系人） qidong@kysec.cn huyaowen@kysec.cn 证 书编号：S0790522010002 证书编号：S0790122080101 投资评级：买入（维持）  龙头标杆房企，销售投拓保持稳健，维持“买入”评级 中国海外发展发布 2023年业绩公告，公司全年营收利润同比提升，销售增长核 公 日期 2024/3/28 司 心城市补仓加强，商业物业快速扩张。受行业销售下行影响，我们下调2024-2025 信 当前股价(港元) 11.260 年并新增2026年盈利预测，预计公司2024-2026年归母净利润为278.8、298.5、 息 一年最高最低(港元) 21.850/10.100 更 316.5亿元（2024-2025年原值301.8、336.6亿元），对应EPS分别为2.55、2.73、 总市值(亿港元) 1,232.39 新 2.89元，当前股价对应PE为4.0、3.7、3.5倍。公司项目聚焦高能级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 202.52 billion RMB for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.61 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 309.8 billion RMB in 2023, representing a 5.1% increase year-on-year, ranking third in the industry with a market share of 2.66% [5]. - The company focused on high-capacity cities for land acquisition, with a total land purchase amount of 144 billion RMB in 2023, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, leading the industry in investment scale [5][4]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for 2023 was 20.32%, a slight decrease of 0.97 percentage points from 2022, but still above the industry average [4]. - The average financing cost for the company in 2023 was 3.55%, maintaining the lowest range in the industry [5]. - The company’s net debt ratio stood at 38.7% and the asset-liability ratio at 51.8%, indicating a stable financial structure [5]. Future Projections - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 29.0 billion RMB and 32.2 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 35.0 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 13.2%, 11.1%, and 8.7% [5][4]. - The company's stock is currently valued at a PE ratio of 3.9 for 2024, 3.5 for 2025, and 3.3 for 2026, indicating strong valuation metrics [5].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 202.52 billion for the year 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 25.61 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year, while the core profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 23.65 billion [1] - The company achieved contract property sales of RMB 309.81 billion, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, despite a 3.7% decrease in sales area [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for commercial properties reached RMB 6.36 billion, marking a 20.9% increase year-on-year [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders, excluding the revaluation gains from investment properties after tax, was RMB 22.58 billion, reflecting a 12.1% increase year-on-year [1] Land Acquisition and Holdings - The company acquired 43 new land parcels in 23 cities across mainland China and Hong Kong, with a total gross floor area of 7.64 million square meters, and an equity land cost of RMB 122.66 billion, which is a 42.0% increase year-on-year [1] - As of the end of 2023, the total land reserve amounted to 54.03 million square meters [1] Debt and Liquidity - The total borrowings of the company stood at RMB 257.66 billion, with bank balances and cash amounting to RMB 105.63 billion [1] - The net gearing ratio was reported at 38.7%, with a weighted average cost of financing at 3.55% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Development's stock rose over 5% following the release of its 2023 annual performance report, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company's financial results [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 reached 202.52 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [1] - Shareholders' profit attributable to the company was 25.61 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year [1] - After excluding the revaluation gains from investment properties, the profit attributable to shareholders was 22.58 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.1% increase year-on-year [1] - Core profit attributable to shareholders was reported at 23.65 billion RMB [1] - The company proposed a final dividend of 0.45 HKD per share, compared to 0.40 HKD in the same period last year, with a total annual dividend of 0.80 HKD per share [1] Sales and Property Development - The total contract sales of the group's property increased by 5.1% to 309.81 billion RMB, while the corresponding sales area decreased by 3.7% to 13.36 million square meters [1] - Revenue from commercial properties amounted to 6.36 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [1] - During the year, the group launched 12 new commercial properties, including four office buildings, five shopping centers, and three long-term rental apartments, contributing to the growth in commercial property revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Development (00688) reported a revenue of 202.52 billion RMB for the year ending December 31, 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.61 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience and value creation for shareholders despite a challenging market environment [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the year reached 202.52 billion RMB, a 12.3% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.61 billion RMB, reflecting a 10.1% year-on-year growth [1] - Core net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.65 billion RMB, with basic earnings per share at 2.34 RMB [1] - The proposed final dividend is 0.45 HKD per share [1] Sales and Property Development - Contracted property sales increased by 5.1% to 309.81 billion RMB, while the corresponding sales area decreased by 3.7% to 13.36 million square meters [1] - The commercial property revenue rose by 20.9% to 6.36 billion RMB, supported by the addition of 12 new commercial properties [1] - The flagship shopping center, Zhenru Huanyu City MAX, opened in December 2023 and has maintained a top position in Shanghai's shopping center rankings [1] Land Acquisition and Reserves - The company acquired 43 new land parcels across 23 cities in mainland China and Hong Kong, with a total building area of 7.64 million square meters [1] - The equity land price for these acquisitions was 122.66 billion RMB, a 42.0% increase year-on-year [1] - As of December 31, 2023, the total land reserve amounted to 54.03 million square meters [1] Debt and Financing - Total borrowings stood at 257.66 billion RMB, with bank balances and cash amounting to 105.63 billion RMB [1] - The net gearing ratio was 38.7%, with a weighted average financing cost of 3.55%, positioning the company within the lowest financing cost range in the industry [1]

Financial Performance - The group's revenue reached RMB 202.52 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3%[2] - Profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 25.61 billion, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year, while core profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 23.65 billion[2][3] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 2.34, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.1%[3] - The group's operating profit was RMB 40.53 billion, an increase from RMB 34.88 billion in the previous year[4] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, reached RMB 210,315,650, an increase from RMB 188,625,841 in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 11.5%[14][15] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 25,609,837 for 2023, compared to RMB 23,264,747 in 2022, indicating an increase of about 10.0%[20] - The group's gross profit margin was 20.3%, with a net profit margin attributable to shareholders of 12.6%[31] Property Sales and Development - The group's property sales increased by 5.1% to RMB 309.81 billion, with a corresponding sales area of 13.36 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%[2] - The group's contracted property sales amounted to RMB 309.81 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.1%[32] - The group's real estate development revenue for the year was RMB 192.88 billion, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year[34] - The segment profit for the real estate development business was RMB 33,146,004, while the commercial property operation business reported a profit of RMB 7,770,667, contributing to a total segment profit of RMB 41,169,374 for 2023, up from RMB 39,593,688 in 2022[14][15][17] - The company’s total segment revenue from external customers in the real estate development business was RMB 192,877,444, while the commercial property operation business generated RMB 6,361,835 in revenue for 2023[14] Land Acquisition and Reserves - The group acquired 43 new land parcels in 23 cities in mainland China and Hong Kong, with a total land reserve area of 7.64 million square meters, and the equity land cost increased by 42.0% to RMB 122.66 billion[2] - The total land reserve area for the group’s subsidiaries (excluding China Overseas Macro Yang) was 35.22 million square meters as of December 31, 2023[39] - The total land reserve area for China Overseas Macro Yang was 1.88 million square meters as of December 31, 2023[40] - The group acquired 43 land parcels in 23 cities in mainland China and Hong Kong, with a total land acquisition cost of RMB 134.21 billion, a 42.0% increase year-on-year[28] Financial Position and Debt Management - As of December 31, 2023, total borrowings amounted to RMB 257.66 billion, with cash and bank balances of RMB 105.63 billion, resulting in a net gearing ratio of 38.7%[2] - The group's net debt repayment amounted to RMB 15.58 billion, effectively controlling funding costs[29] - The group's weighted average financing cost for 2023 was 3.55%, among the lowest in the industry[29] - The group reported a sales area of 13.36 million square meters, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year[32] - The group repaid RMB 98.49 billion in debts ahead of schedule, resulting in a net debt repayment of RMB 15.58 billion during the year[44] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.45 per share, totaling an annual dividend of HKD 0.80 per share[2][3] - The total dividend for the year, including an interim dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, will be HKD 0.80 per share[26] - The board has proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.45 per share for the year ending December 31, 2023, amounting to approximately RMB 4,516,406,000, pending shareholder approval[21] Cash Flow and Receivables - Total operating cash inflow was RMB 231.69 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%[44] - As of December 31, 2023, trade and other receivables amounted to RMB 6,987,106,000, a slight decrease from RMB 7,042,079,000 in the previous year[23] - The company closely monitors the credit quality and recoverability of receivables, ensuring minimal provisions for trade and other receivables[23] - The company has a low expected credit risk for trade and other receivables due to a diverse customer base and strong repayment history[23] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company adhered to the corporate governance code as per the listing rules during the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023[54] - The company has adopted a code of conduct for directors' securities transactions, confirming compliance by all directors during the fiscal year 2023[55] - The audit and risk management committee reviewed the accounting policies and the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2023[56] - Ernst & Young confirmed that the figures in the performance announcement are consistent with the audited consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year 2023[56] Sustainability and Community Engagement - The company aims to reduce carbon emission intensity by over 30% per unit area by 2030, based on 2019 levels, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060[48] - The company has established a leadership group for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and has published a "Carbon Neutrality White Paper" and an "Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak"[48] - The company actively participates in community building in Hong Kong, launching initiatives to improve living conditions for residents[48] - The company is involved in rural revitalization efforts in Gansu, helping to establish the "Zhuoni Mushroom" brand[48] - The company has implemented a comprehensive performance management system to fairly assess employee contributions[48] Market Strategy and Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and drive future growth[14] - The group aims for a 25% growth in commercial property revenue for 2024, building on the previous year's growth[30]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[中I Tnaf 国bol]e 海_Ti外tle]发 展（0688） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 10.46 春节扰动，销售承压 2024.03.11 海 ——2 月经营数据点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 10.30-21.60 当前股本（百万股） 10,945 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前市值（百万港元） 114,483 司 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 公司发布2月经营数据，月度销售额同比跌幅走阔，与行业基本一致，仍等待企稳； 中国海外发展 恒生 ...