Company Overview - Century Aluminum Company is a leading producer of primary aluminum with significant manufacturing operations in the United States and Iceland, focusing on operational efficiency and product quality to maintain a competitive edge in the global aluminum industry [9][10] - The company generates revenue primarily through the manufacture and sale of aluminum products to industrial and commercial customers, with a total revenue of $2.53 billion over the trailing twelve months (TTM) [5][9] Recent Developments - On January 22, Glencore disclosed a purchase of 13,454,538 shares of Century Aluminum, with an estimated transaction value of $420.38 million based on quarterly average pricing [2][3] - Following this acquisition, Glencore's position in Century Aluminum rose to 53,511,894 shares valued at $2.10 billion, accounting for 48.39% of Glencore's reportable assets under management [4][7] Financial Performance - Century Aluminum reported $632.2 million in revenue for its latest quarter, returning to profitability with a net income of $14.9 million compared to a loss of $4.6 million in the previous quarter [12] - The company's adjusted EBITDA increased to $101.1 million, driven by higher Midwest aluminum premiums and improved power economics, with management guiding for fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $170 million to $180 million [12] Market Position - As of January 21, Century Aluminum shares were priced at $47.75, reflecting a 133.7% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 120 percentage points [4] - The market capitalization of Century Aluminum stands at $4.46 billion, indicating a strong market presence [5]

Core Viewpoint - The mineral and metal industry is currently viewed as one of the best market opportunities due to surging global demand and mining companies' efforts to meet this demand [1]. Industry Insights - The financial markets are experiencing significant interest in the energy and minerals sectors, which are seen as offering incredible growth opportunities [2]. - The mineral and metal industry is characterized by active developments and frequent news updates, indicating a dynamic market environment [2].

Core Insights - Deep-pocketed investors have adopted a bearish approach towards Century Aluminum, indicating potential significant market movements ahead [1] - The options activity for Century Aluminum has shown unusual levels, with 25% of investors leaning bullish and 37% bearish [2] Options Activity Summary - Recent options trading revealed 8 extraordinary activities, with 2 puts totaling $141,150 and 6 calls amounting to $280,715 [2] - Significant investors are targeting a price range of $32.0 to $48.0 for Century Aluminum over the past three months [3] Volume & Open Interest Trends - Analyzing volume and open interest is crucial for understanding liquidity and investor interest in Century Aluminum's options, particularly within the $32.0 to $48.0 strike price range over the last 30 days [4] Noteworthy Options Activity - Recent trades include bearish puts and neutral calls, with notable transactions such as: - A bearish put trade on June 18, 2026, at a strike price of $35.00 totaling $79.2K [7] - A bullish call trade on January 16, 2026, at a strike price of $41.00 totaling $74.1K [7] Company Overview - Century Aluminum Co produces primary aluminum and value-added products, operating smelter facilities in the U.S. and Iceland, with most revenue generated from Glencore [8] - The company specializes in high purity aluminum and various aluminum products, including standard-grade sow and tee bars [8] Market Standing - Analysts have issued a consensus target price of $46.0 for Century Aluminum, with Wells Fargo maintaining an Overweight rating [10][11] - The current trading volume for CENX is 1,378,163, with the stock price at $43.83, indicating a potential overbought condition [12]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline on December 31, with significant drops in companies such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum, both falling over 2%, while Kaiser Aluminum and Southern Copper saw declines exceeding 1% [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for precious metal futures for the second time this week, aiming to cool down the recently surging precious metals market [1] - As a result of the increased margin requirements, precious metals experienced a substantial drop, with New York silver futures falling over 9% and dropping below $71 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - The North American aluminum industry is facing opportunities from increased U.S. trade barriers on aluminum imports and challenges from data centers competing for limited power resources. The supply-demand gap for primary aluminum in North America is expected to widen over the next five years, with local U.S. aluminum maintaining a high premium [2]. Supply Overview - The supply of primary aluminum in North America is limited due to power constraints and uncertainties in trade policies. Since 2011, new primary aluminum capacity has stagnated, and cost pressures from aging power and equipment have led to many U.S. projects being idled or shut down. The U.S. local Mt Holly project has announced a restart of idle capacity, while new projects by Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum depend heavily on policy support. Canada currently has no expansion projects with net capacity increases planned. It is expected that North American primary aluminum production will slightly increase from 3.99 million tons in 2024 to 4.16 million tons by 2030, mainly from the restart of idle capacity [5][11][18]. Demand Overview - North American aluminum demand is expected to maintain rapid growth, with the regional supply-demand gap likely to widen further. The transportation sector is anticipated to see a recovery in automotive manufacturing capacity utilization under U.S. tariff protection, while strong orders in aerospace will support aircraft manufacturing demand. Residential construction aluminum demand may stabilize and rebound after new housing starts bottom out. The high investment in the power sector may continue to drive related aluminum demand [5][11][43]. Key Companies - The North American aluminum industry is dominated by three major companies: Alcoa, Century Aluminum, and Rio Tinto. Rio Tinto maintains a relatively stronger profitability due to its low-cost hydroelectric power and integrated bauxite resources. Century Aluminum benefits more from U.S. tariff protections due to its high domestic production ratio. Alcoa, with a higher proportion of alumina revenue, can better withstand cost pressures related to alumina prices, while its higher cash cost per ton of aluminum provides greater profit elasticity [6][45]. Trade and Policy Impact - U.S. aluminum net imports reached a historical high in 2017 but have since declined due to tariff policies. The U.S. aluminum dependency ratio rose from 3% in 2011 to 59% in 2017, then fell to 38% in 2020 due to tariff protections. However, the dependency ratio is expected to rise again to around 50% from 2021 to 2024. The recent increase in tariffs to 25% and 50% will significantly elevate trade barriers [25][26][30]. Price Dynamics - The Midwest premium for aluminum in the U.S. has been expanding due to tariff impacts. The premium has risen from below $0.10 per pound before 2012 to around $0.20 per pound after the introduction of tariffs in 2018, and further to $0.80-$0.90 per pound with the recent tariff increases, effectively covering additional costs imposed by tariffs [35][36]. Future Outlook - The supply of primary aluminum in North America is expected to remain limited due to power resource constraints and uncertainties in trade policies. The demand for aluminum is projected to grow rapidly, particularly in the transportation and packaging sectors. The supply-demand gap is likely to widen from 2025 to 2030, with the Midwest premium expected to remain at a high level sufficient to cover tariff costs [38][43].

Group 1 - Wells Fargo raised the target price for Century Aluminum from $37 to $46, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing significant turmoil due to tightening global supply, which is driving prices higher and disrupting operations [1] Group 1: U.S. Aluminum Market Dynamics - The U.S. aluminum smelting industry has drastically reduced from 20 smelters in 1998 to only five currently, with Alcoa Corporation and Century Aluminum Company being among the last operators [2][4] - The key issue affecting aluminum smelting is the high cost of power, with data centers and AI companies willing to pay significantly more for electricity than smelters can afford [3][9] - The outlook for aluminum prices is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of prices exceeding $3,000 per ton next year, although not as bullish as for copper [4] Group 2: Global Supply Constraints - China, the world's leading aluminum supplier, is facing production caps imposed by the government, limiting its ability to increase supply despite rising domestic consumption [5] - The International Aluminium Institute projects a 40% increase in aluminum demand by 2030, driven by clean technology needs [6] - Operational issues in Mozambique could threaten 10% of Europe's aluminum supply if the South32 Ltd. Mozal smelter fails to secure affordable electricity by March 2026 [7] Group 3: Market Expectations and Price Projections - ING Research anticipates material deficits in the aluminum market due to slower production growth and resilient demand, with a price target of $2,900 per ton by 2026 [8] - Electricity costs are a major factor in smelting, accounting for nearly half of production costs, with competitive smelters requiring long-term contracts at around $40/MWh, while tech companies are currently paying up to $115/MWh [9]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has reduced its stake in Century Aluminum by 10% to 33%, benefiting from increased profits in local aluminum smelting due to U.S. import tariffs on aluminum, resulting in several million dollars in gains [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is the largest shareholder of Century Aluminum and supplies alumina to the company while purchasing nearly all of its North American aluminum products for U.S. customers [1] - The reduction in Glencore's stake comes after the U.S. government raised aluminum import tariffs to 50% on June 4, aimed at encouraging domestic aluminum production [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Century Aluminum is the largest primary aluminum producer in the U.S., with a production of 690,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [1] - According to Trade Data Monitor, U.S. aluminum imports are projected to be 3.94 million tons in 2024, indicating a significant market size [1] - Producers must ensure that their product prices cover the tariffs to continue shipping aluminum to the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has reduced its stake in Century Aluminum by 10% to 33%, capitalizing on a share price increase driven by U.S. tariffs on aluminum imports and a surge in profits for local aluminum smelters [1][2]. Company Summary - Glencore is Century Aluminum's largest shareholder, supplying alumina and purchasing nearly all of Century's North American aluminum production for U.S. customers [2]. - On November 10, Glencore sold 9 million shares from its 40 million shareholding for $272.25 million and converted its Series A Convertible Preferred Stock into 4.95 million ordinary shares [2][3]. - Following the transactions, Glencore retains approximately 36 million shares, representing about 33% of Century's equity, down from 43% previously [3]. Industry Summary - Century Aluminum is the largest primary aluminum producer in the U.S., producing 690,000 metric tons last year, primarily for construction, power, and packaging industries [4]. - The U.S. imported 3.94 million tons of aluminum last year, indicating a reliance on foreign sources [4]. - U.S. consumers pay the benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange plus a Midwest premium, which recently reached a record of 88.21 U.S. cents per pound or $1,944 per ton [5].

Core Insights - Century Aluminum Company (CENX) reported earnings of 15 cents per share for Q3 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents, and down from 46 cents in the prior-year quarter, but improved from a loss of 5 cents in the previous quarter [1][7] Revenue and Shipments - The company reported net sales of $632.2 million, a 17% increase year over year, but below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $663.7 million; sequentially, sales increased by 0.7% [2][7] - Primary aluminum shipments totaled 162,442 tons, reflecting a decrease of approximately 3.7% year over year [2] Financial Position - At the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents stood at $151.4 million, marking a 272% increase from the previous quarter; net cash provided by operating activities was $82.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 [3][7] Q4 Outlook - The company anticipates fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $170 million and $180 million, driven by increased realization of the Midwest regional premium and higher realized LME [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Century Aluminum have increased by 40% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 8.5% [5]