Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum is positioned to benefit significantly from favorable U.S. industrial policies, particularly due to increased tariffs on aluminum imports, which have led to a surge in domestic premiums and a strong financial outlook for the company [1][2][15]. Group 1: Market Position and Catalysts - The U.S. trade policy, specifically the increase of Section 232 tariffs on aluminum imports to 50% in June 2025, has made foreign aluminum more expensive, providing a competitive edge to domestic producers like Century Aluminum [2][3]. - The U.S. Midwest premium, a key revenue component for Century, has surged due to the higher costs of foreign supply, directly impacting the company's profitability [3][4]. - Century Aluminum's stock has increased over 60% in the past year, reflecting investor confidence in the company's strategic advantages and growth potential [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Investments - For Q3 2025, Century Aluminum projects an Adjusted EBITDA between $115 million and $125 million, attributing this optimistic forecast to the benefits of higher domestic premiums [4]. - The company is investing approximately $50 million to restart idled capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter, which is expected to enhance future revenue-generating capacity [6][15]. - In July 2025, Century refinanced $400 million of its senior notes, reducing annual interest payments and extending debt maturity to 2032, thereby improving financial flexibility [7][8]. Group 3: Future Growth and Strategic Initiatives - Century Aluminum plans to build a new, low-emission U.S. smelter, potentially receiving up to $500 million in funding from the Department of Energy, which would mark the first new U.S. smelter in nearly 50 years [9][10]. - This new smelter is expected to create over 100 high-wage manufacturing jobs and increase U.S. primary aluminum production by nearly 10% [14]. - The company is well-positioned as a pure-play U.S. producer, making it an attractive investment opportunity amid the resurgence of American industry [15][16].

Core Insights - Century Aluminum Company (CENX) reported a loss of 5 cents per share for Q2 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents and showing a decline from a loss of 3 cents in the prior year quarter and earnings of 29 cents in the previous quarter [1][7] Revenue and Shipments - The company achieved net sales of $628.1 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $650.7 million. Sequentially, sales decreased by 0.9% due to lower third-party alumina sales, although this was partially offset by favorable regional premium prices, volumes, and mix. Primary aluminum shipments totaled 175,741 tons, up approximately 4.7% year over year [2][7] Financials - At the end of Q2 2025, CENX had cash and cash equivalents of $40.7 million, a decrease of 9.4% from the previous quarter. The net cash provided by operating activities for the six months ending June 30, 2025, was $80.2 million [3] Q3 Outlook - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 to be between $115 million and $125 million, driven by increased realization of Midwest regional premium [4][7] Stock Performance - CENX shares have increased by 74.6% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 31.9% [5]

Company Overview - Century Aluminum (CENX) currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a positive outlook based on momentum investing principles [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Price Performance - Over the past week, CENX shares have increased by 12.41%, outperforming the Zacks Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, which rose by 3.19% [5] - In a longer time frame, CENX's monthly price change is 10.68%, compared to the industry's 1.63% [5] - Over the past quarter, CENX shares have risen by 38.15%, and over the last year, they have increased by 61.22%, while the S&P 500 has only moved 13.05% and 20.74%, respectively [6] Trading Volume - CENX's average 20-day trading volume is 1,653,817 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, one earnings estimate for CENX has moved higher, while none have moved lower, resulting in an increase in the consensus estimate from $1.78 to $2.00 [9] - For the next fiscal year, one estimate has also moved upwards with no downward revisions during the same period [9] Conclusion - Considering the positive price trends, trading volume, and earnings outlook, CENX is positioned as a solid momentum pick with a Momentum Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [11]

Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum (CENX) shows a significant improvement in earnings outlook, making it an attractive investment option as analysts continue to raise earnings estimates for the company [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The upward trend in earnings estimate revisions indicates growing analyst optimism regarding Century Aluminum's earnings prospects, which is expected to positively impact its stock price [2]. - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has a strong track record, with Zacks 1 Ranked stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 2008 [3]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current quarter is $0.73 per share, reflecting a +58.7% change from the previous year [6]. - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Century has increased by 23.73%, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [6]. - For the full year, the expected earnings are $2.00 per share, which is a -39.2% change from the prior year, but the consensus estimate has increased by 12.36% due to positive revisions [7][8]. Zacks Rank and Performance - Century Aluminum has achieved a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating promising estimate revisions that can help investors make informed decisions [9]. - Research indicates that stocks with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) tend to significantly outperform the S&P 500 [9]. Stock Performance - Century shares have increased by 11.1% over the past four weeks, suggesting investor confidence in the company's earnings growth prospects [10].

Company Overview - Century Aluminum (CENX) is part of the Industrial Products group, which consists of 189 companies and ranks 4 in the Zacks Sector Rank [2] - The Zacks Rank for Century Aluminum is 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook based on earnings estimates and revisions [3] Performance Analysis - Year-to-date, Century Aluminum has increased by approximately 24.3%, outperforming the average gain of 5.6% in the Industrial Products group [4] - In comparison, another stock in the sector, Hudson Technologies (HDSN), has shown a significant return of 75.3% year-to-date [4] - The consensus estimate for Century Aluminum's full-year earnings has risen by 12.4% in the past quarter, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [3] Industry Context - Century Aluminum operates within the Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, which includes 8 companies and currently ranks 38 in the Zacks Industry Rank [5] - Stocks in this specific industry have gained about 7.8% year-to-date, indicating that Century Aluminum is performing better than its peers in this category [5] - Hudson Technologies belongs to the Industrial Services industry, which has seen a 3.9% increase this year, and is also ranked 38 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of timing and sustainability in short-term investing, highlighting that a solid trend can lead to profitable opportunities if supported by strong fundamentals and positive earnings revisions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Century Aluminum (CENX) has shown a significant price increase of 37.1% over the past 12 weeks, indicating strong investor interest [4]. - In the last four weeks, CENX's price has increased by 16.6%, suggesting that the upward trend is still intact [5]. - CENX is currently trading at 80% of its 52-week high-low range, indicating a potential breakout opportunity [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Strength - CENX holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises [6]. - The stock has an Average Broker Recommendation of 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting high optimism from the brokerage community regarding its near-term price performance [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "Recent Price Strength" screen is a useful tool for identifying stocks like CENX that have the fundamental strength to maintain their upward momentum [3]. - The article suggests that there are multiple stocks passing through the "Recent Price Strength" screen, providing additional investment opportunities [8].

Core Points - Century Aluminum plans to restart idle production at the Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, investing approximately $50 million and creating over 100 new jobs, which will increase U.S. aluminum production by about 10% [1] - The restart is attributed to President Trump's commitment to relocating critical metal manufacturing back to the U.S. [1] - The Mt. Holly facility, currently operating at 75% capacity, is expected to reach full production by June 30, 2026 [1] Company Overview - Century Aluminum is a vertically integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum products, with production facilities in the U.S., Iceland, the Netherlands, and Jamaica [1] - The company focuses on increasing domestic aluminum production in response to market demands and government policies [1] Industry Context - The decision to restart production aligns with broader trends in the U.S. aluminum industry, emphasizing the importance of domestic manufacturing capabilities [1] - The investment and job creation are expected to have positive implications for the local economy and the overall aluminum supply chain in the U.S. [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Century Aluminum generated $74 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025, with net sales of $628 million, reflecting a $6 million decrease primarily due to lower third-party alumina sales [7][25] - The company reported a net loss of $5 million or $0.05 per share, while adjusted net income was $30 million or $0.30 per share excluding exceptional items [25] - Liquidity increased to $363 million, up $24 million quarter over quarter, with a cash balance of $41 million [26][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments increased to approximately 176,000 tons, a 4% sequential increase, reflecting strong operational performance across all smelters [25] - Realized LME prices averaged $2,540 per ton in Q2, down $11 from the prior quarter, while the Midwest premium increased to $850 per ton, up $247 due to the Section 232 aluminum tariffs [8][29] - Domestic billet shipments were up 8% year over year in the first half, indicating strong demand from downstream customers [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global aluminum supply remains constrained, with China near its production cap of 45 million tons, leading to expectations of a global market deficit in 2025 [12] - Spot Midwest premium is currently close to $1,600 per ton, reflecting the impact of increased tariffs [9] - The Atlantic region has seen an expanding alumina premium of about $30 due to short supplies [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the restart of 50,000 metric tons of production at Mt. Holly, increasing its production capacity to over 220,000 metric tons per year, representing a $50 million investment [21][22] - Century aims to capitalize on the favorable market conditions and the Section 232 tariffs to enhance domestic aluminum production, potentially tripling U.S. production by the end of the decade [20][24] - The strategic review process for the Hawesville facility is ongoing, with final negotiations expected to conclude by the end of Q3 [19][57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong domestic demand for aluminum products and the positive impact of tariffs on operational results [10][12] - The company anticipates Q3 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $115 million to $125 million, driven by lagged LME and Midwest premium increases [37] - Management highlighted the importance of the Section 232 program in restoring American manufacturing and supporting job creation [20][24] Other Important Information - The refinancing of $250 million senior secured notes was completed, simplifying the debt structure and lowering interest costs [26][27] - The company expects to receive tax credits related to U.S. production, with a receivable of $195 million as of June 30 [33][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about your sourcing plans for raw materials, especially alumina? - Management confirmed that the additional alumina needs for Mt. Holly will be serviced within the existing alumina sourcing plans for 2026 [43][44] Question: What is the expected timeline for receiving the manufacturing credit? - Management expects the FY 2023 credit imminently and the FY 2024 amount over the next six to nine months, with visibility into the tax return processing [48][49] Question: Can you provide an update on the Hawesville facility? - Management stated that the strategic review process is progressing well, with final negotiations expected to conclude soon [57] Question: What are the milestones for the new smelter project? - The next milestone will likely be site selection, which is tied to energy agreements, with major spending expected in 2026 [60] Question: How is the cast house project at Grundartangi progressing? - Management reported that the cast house project is going well, with production ramping up and positive market acceptance [71][73]

Group 1 - The American Primary Aluminum Association (APAA) supports President Trump's Section 232 aluminum tariff, which has enabled Century Aluminum to increase U.S. aluminum production by 10% and create over 100 new jobs with an average salary of $100,000 [1][2] - Century Aluminum plans to invest $50 million to enhance U.S. aluminum production, with the Mt. Holly facility expected to return to full operational capacity in the spring [2] - The Section 232 aluminum tariff is viewed as a significant change for the U.S. aluminum industry, fulfilling President Trump's campaign promises and benefiting thousands of American workers [2] Group 2 - The APAA is a non-profit trade association that advocates for the interests of America's primary aluminum industry and its workers through initiatives like the Aluminum Now campaign [3]

Financial Performance - Century Aluminum recorded $74 million in Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA [11] - Net sales were $628 million in Q2 2025 [32] - The company refinanced 750% Senior Secured Notes with new 6875% notes, extending maturity to 2032 [11] Market Conditions and Tariffs - Realized LME price was approximately $2,540/MT and realized MWP was approximately $850/MT in Q2 [9] - The Section 232 aluminum tariff rate increased to 50% on June 4, 2025, resulting in a spot MWP of approximately $1,600/MT or 72c/lb [9] - Global aluminum inventory levels remain at historic lows of 47 days [9] Operational Updates - Mt Holly plans to restart over 50,000 MT of idled production, aiming for full capacity utilization by Q2 2026 [9] - Grundartangi's production was slightly impacted due to a transformer outage [9, 11] - The company shipped 175,741 tonnes of aluminum in Q2 2025 [32] Q3 Outlook - Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $115 million and $125 million [37] - This outlook includes an estimated hedge impact of $(10) million to $(5) million and a tax expense of $(5) million to $0 [37]