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Core Insights - Century Aluminum reported Q3 earnings nearly double Wall Street's expectations, with a profit of $0.56 per share and sales of $632.2 million, compared to analyst forecasts of $0.30 per share and $628.1 million in sales [1][8] - Year-over-year sales growth was 17.3%, but GAAP earnings per share declined over 67% to $0.15 from $0.46 a year ago [3][4] - The stock price increased by 12% following the earnings report, but the company is viewed as having a high price-to-earnings ratio of over 36x, raising concerns about valuation [1][5] Financial Performance - Q3 sales were $632.2 million, a 17.3% increase year-over-year, but only a 0.6% increase sequentially from Q2 [3][4] - The decline in tons of aluminum shipped was 7.6%, despite the increase in earnings [4] - The adjusted earnings per share of $0.56 contrasts sharply with the GAAP earnings of $0.15, indicating a significant year-over-year decline [3][8] Investment Considerations - The current stock price of $32 is considered expensive given the net profit of only $0.87 per share over the past year [5][6] - Future earnings targets set by Wall Street are $1.56 per share this year and $3.10 per share next year, which could make the stock appear cheaper if achieved [5] - Analysts from The Motley Fool Stock Advisor have identified other stocks as better investment opportunities, suggesting caution for potential investors in Century Aluminum [9]

Core Insights - Century Aluminum (CENX.US) experienced a significant stock increase of over 17%, closing at $33.95 following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report [1] Financial Performance - The company reported Q3 revenue of $632.2 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 17.3%, exceeding expectations by $2.35 million [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 were $0.56, which was $0.28 below market expectations [1] Revenue Drivers - The revenue growth in Q3 was primarily driven by increased premiums in the Midwest region, although this was partially offset by unfavorable sales volumes and sales mix, as well as third-party alumina sales [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Q4 to be between $170 million and $180 million, mainly due to increases in London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and Midwest premiums [1]

Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum (CENX.US) experienced a significant increase of over 17%, closing at $33.95, following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 7 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported Q3 revenue of $632.2 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 17.3%, exceeding expectations by $2.35 million [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 were $0.56, which was $0.28 below expectations [1] Revenue Drivers - The revenue growth in Q3 was primarily driven by increased premiums in the Midwest region, although this was partially offset by unfavorable sales volumes and sales mix, as well as third-party alumina sales [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that adjusted EBITDA for Q4 will range between $170 million and $180 million, mainly due to increases in the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and Midwest premiums [1]

Core Insights - Century Aluminum reported quarterly earnings of $0.15 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.79 per share, and down from $0.46 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -81.01% [1] - The company posted revenues of $632.2 million for the quarter ended September 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.75%, and up from $539.1 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has gained approximately 57.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 15.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.53 on revenues of $622.3 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.56 on revenues of $2.55 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Century was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, to which Century belongs, is currently in the top 17% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable industry outlook [8]

Core Insights - Century Aluminum Company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $632.2 million, a 17.3% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by $2.35 million [1] - Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $0.56, which was $0.28 below expectations [1] Financial Performance - Q3 aluminum shipments totaled 162,442 tons, down from 175,741 tons in Q2 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was $14.9 million, an increase of $19.5 million quarter-over-quarter [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was $57.9 million, up $27.5 million from the previous quarter [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $101.1 million [1] Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth was primarily driven by increased premiums in the Midwest region, although this was partially offset by unfavorable sales volume and sales mix, as well as third-party alumina sales [1] - The increase in net profit was mainly due to the realization of Midwest premium business, countered by increased losses from derivatives, unfavorable sales volume and mix, adverse electricity prices, and other costs related to the restart of the Holly Hill project [1] Liquidity Position - As of September 30, 2025, the company's liquidity stood at $488.2 million, which includes $151.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and $336.8 million in available borrowings [1] Future Outlook - The company expects adjusted EBITDA for Q4 to be between $170 million and $180 million, primarily benefiting from increases in LME and Midwest premiums [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, consolidated shipments totaled approximately 162,000 tons, a decrease from the prior quarter due to operational instability at Mount Holly and transformer failures at Grundartangi [16] - Net sales for the quarter were $632 million, a $4 million increase primarily due to higher realized Midwest premium, partially offset by lower shipments [16] - The company reported net income of $15 million, or $0.15 per share, with adjusted net income of $58 million, or $0.56 per share, excluding exceptional items [16] - Adjusted EBITDA was $101 million for the quarter, driven by increased Midwest premium price, partially offset by lower volumes and product premiums at Mount Holly [16][18] - Liquidity increased to $488 million, up $125 million quarter over quarter, with a cash balance of $151 million [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mount Holly experienced production instability in Q3, resulting in production falling below expectations by approximately 4,000 tons [9] - Grundartangi smelter faced a temporary production halt due to transformer failures, with a timeline for restart expected to take 11-12 months [6][8] - Sebree plant achieved near-record performance across operational and financial KPIs [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 saw aluminum prices rise, with realized LME prices at $2,508 per ton and spot aluminum prices around $2,850 [13] - U.S. and European regional premiums strengthened, with realized Midwest and European premiums averaging $1,425 and $193 per ton, respectively [14] - The market is experiencing a shortage of aluminum units, leading to a contraction of global inventories to post-financial crisis lows [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on the Mount Holly expansion project, with plans to restart production of over 50,000 metric tons per year by Q2 2026 [9][12] - A strategic review process for the Hawesville site is ongoing, with significant interest from new parties [10][11] - The company is exploring a new greenfield aluminum smelter project, which is expected to double the size of the existing U.S. industry and create over 1,000 full-time jobs [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong market conditions persisting into 2026, driven by global demand growth and supply challenges [13] - The company anticipates an approximately $0.05 year-over-year increase across its 2026 bill of sales, generating an additional $30 million of EBITDA [15] - Management is optimistic about achieving net debt targets of $300 million early in 2026, supported by strong cash flows and Section 45X receivables [26] Other Important Information - The company received a fiscal year 2024 45X payment of approximately $75 million from the IRS in October, which will help lower net debt [17][21] - The company is assessing options for capital returns, with a preference for share buybacks as indicated by shareholder feedback [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Mount Holly Restart EBITDA potential and CapEx - Management indicated that the Mount Holly Restart could generate over $60 million in EBITDA at spot prices, with total project spend expected to be around $50 million [31][32] Question: Capital allocation and returns - Management noted that there is a clear preference for buybacks among shareholders, and they are considering this as the most likely form of capital return once net debt targets are met [33][34] Question: Transformer repairs and insurance coverage - Management confirmed that repairs could potentially accelerate the restart timeline, and insurance is expected to cover losses during the outage period [38][39] Question: Hawesville strategic review timeline - Management stated that there is no specific timeline for the final decision on the Hawesville site, but positive interest has been received [40][41] Question: Impact of tariffs and market conditions - Management emphasized that Section 232 tariffs are driving U.S. aluminum production and are expected to remain in place, supporting domestic industry growth [53][54]

Century Aluminum Company 3 rd Quarter Earnings Call November 6, 2025 Cautionary Statement Certain statements in this presentation, and those made by Century Aluminum Company management on the quarterly conference call, relate to future events and expectations and are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as "believe," "expect," "hope," "target," "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "seek," "estimate," "potential," "project," "scheduled ...

Financial Performance - Century Aluminum's net sales for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reached $1.894 billion, an increase from $1.589 billion in the same period of 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of approximately 19.2%[159] - The company experienced a gross profit of $174.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $118.7 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 46.8%[159] - Net sales increased by $4.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, driven by a $52.0 million increase in realized regional price premiums, partially offset by a $42.6 million unfavorable volume and sales mix[161] - Gross profit increased by $41.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to favorable realized regional price premiums of $52.0 million and favorable raw material price realization of $16.0 million[163] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net sales reached $1,531.2 million[192] - Gross profit for the same period was $198.1 million[192] - Income before income taxes was reported at $98.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[192] - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $40.0 million[192] Production and Operational Challenges - The Grundartangi smelter faced a temporary production reduction of approximately two-thirds due to an electrical equipment failure, with an expected 11 to 12 months for resumption of full production[141] - Jamalco experienced a production loss of approximately 84,000 tonnes in 2023 due to a power disruption, impacting gross margin by about $30.4 million[150] Capital and Funding - The company secured up to $500 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to build a new aluminum smelter, marking the first new U.S. primary aluminum smelter in 45 years[144] - The company completed the issuance of $400 million of Senior Secured Notes due 2032 on July 22, 2025, and redeemed the 2028 Notes at a total redemption price of approximately $261.1 million[178] - The company entered into a Cooperative Agreement with the DOE's Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations for up to $500 million in IRA funding to build a new U.S. primary aluminum smelter[186] Tariffs and Pricing - The average price of primary aluminum per tonne for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $2,617, compared to $2,383 for the same period in 2024, indicating an increase of about 9.8%[154] - The Midwest Premium (MWP) for aluminum sold in the U.S. averaged $1,567 per tonne for the three months ended September 30, 2025, up from $411 in the same period of 2024, representing a significant increase of approximately 282%[154] - The Section 232 aluminum tariffs were increased from 25% to 50% effective June 4, 2025, which positively impacted the company's financial position and results of operations[143] Expenses and Cash Flow - Selling, general and administrative expenses increased by $3.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to increased share-based compensation costs[165] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $82.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $16.8 million for the same period in 2024[181] Assets and Liabilities - As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of approximately $151.4 million and unused availability under credit facilities of $336.8 million, totaling a liquidity position of $488.2 million[175] - As of September 30, 2025, current assets totaled $674.5 million, an increase from $414.0 million as of December 31, 2024[192] - Non-current assets amounted to $717.3 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $698.4 million as of December 31, 2024[192] - Current liabilities were reported at $271.1 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $247.1 million as of December 31, 2024[192] - Non-current liabilities increased to $641.2 million as of September 30, 2025, from $490.4 million as of December 31, 2024[192] - Intercompany receivables from Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries totaled $58.2 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $40.4 million as of December 31, 2024[192] - An intercompany non-current loan due to the Company from Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries was $380.1 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $358.1 million as of December 31, 2024[192] Derivative Contracts - The net loss on forward and derivative contracts - nonaffiliates increased by $14.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to fluctuations in forward prices related to LME hedges[167]