Group 1 - Shares of Century Aluminum (CENX) have increased by 11.2% over the past four weeks, closing at $19.32, with a mean price target of $25 indicating a potential upside of 29.4% [1] - The average price targets range from a low of $22 to a high of $27, with a standard deviation of $2.65, suggesting a relatively high agreement among analysts [2][7] - Analysts have shown strong agreement in revising earnings per share (EPS) estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [4][9] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CENX has increased by 35.9% due to one estimate moving higher over the last 30 days without any negative revisions [10] - CENX holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [11] - While consensus price targets may not be entirely reliable, the direction they imply appears to be a good guide for potential price movement [12]

CHICAGO, March 21, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) announced today that its Board of Directors has appointed Peter Trpkovski to be the Company’s next Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As CFO, Trpkovski will build on his 12-years of experience at Century and focus on advancing the Company’s strategic initiatives, strengthening financial operations, and driving value for stakeholders. Trpkovski will also continue to serve as Century’s Treasurer. He succeeds ...

Market Risks - The company faces significant risks related to declines in the market price of primary aluminum, which can adversely affect its financial condition and results of operations[83]. - Excess capacity and overproduction in the aluminum market may disrupt pricing and negatively impact the company's sales, margins, and profitability[87]. - The company is exposed to market price volatility due to its reliance on market-based electricity contracts, which can lead to increased operational costs[89]. - The company is exposed to price risk for raw materials, with significant fluctuations affecting profitability and operational costs[106]. - Changes in trade laws or regulations could adversely affect sales margins and profitability, particularly regarding import tariffs on primary aluminum[161]. Operational Challenges - Increases in energy costs, particularly electricity, are critical to the company's profitability and can lead to operational disruptions[88]. - The company has experienced power supply disruptions that have previously impacted its operational results, highlighting the importance of stable energy supply[90]. - The company relies on a limited number of suppliers for key raw materials, and disruptions in supply could lead to production inefficiencies and increased costs[104]. - The company has curtailed operations at its Hawesville smelter and is exploring strategic alternatives, with no assurance of profitable restart[100]. - A new power agreement at the Mt. Holly smelter may allow for the potential restart of 25% of its curtailed production capacity, subject to market conditions[98]. - Future production curtailments may incur substantial ongoing expenses, impacting the company's financial position and liquidity[97]. - Unpredictable events, such as natural disasters and extreme weather, have previously disrupted operations and could lead to increased costs and operational challenges[118]. Financial Position - The company requires substantial resources to fund operating expenses and capital expenditures, which may necessitate access to financial markets[112]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had approximately $528.2 million of outstanding debt, including $250.0 million of 7.5% senior secured notes due 2028 and $86.3 million of convertible senior notes due 2028[135]. - The company's ability to pay interest and repay or refinance its debt depends on access to liquidity and future operating performance, which are subject to various uncontrollable factors[135]. - The company is vulnerable to adverse economic conditions due to substantial indebtedness, which limits operational flexibility and reduces cash available for other purposes[137]. - The company is subject to interest rate risk, as its borrowings are at variable interest rates, which could increase debt service obligations and adversely affect cash flow[138]. - Existing debt instruments contain covenants that restrict business operations and limit the ability to incur additional debt or pay dividends, potentially impairing liquidity and growth[139]. - The company relies on intercompany transfers from subsidiaries to meet debt service obligations, making it dependent on their operating results[140]. Customer Concentration - Approximately 59.1% of the company's consolidated net sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, were derived from Glencore, highlighting a concentrated customer base[110]. - For the year ended December 31, 2024, approximately 59.1% of consolidated sales were derived from Glencore and its affiliates[34]. - The company expects to sell a significant portion of its production to Glencore in 2025, maintaining a concentrated customer base[35]. Acquisition and Integration - The acquisition of a 55% interest in Jamalco in May 2023 significantly expanded the company's operations, adding bauxite mining and alumina refining capabilities[125]. - The company identified material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting related to the acquisition of Jamalco, which were remediated in fiscal 2024[130]. - The company may face risks associated with integration activities following the Jamalco acquisition, which could impact operational performance[126]. - The acquisition of a 55% interest in Jamalco secures a long-term supply of alumina, enhancing supply chain control[61]. Environmental and Regulatory Risks - The company is subject to various environmental laws and regulations that may adversely affect its business and financial position[156]. - Changes in climate change legislation or environmental regulations could lead to increased costs and impact the company's operations and profitability[155]. - The company is subject to various environmental laws and regulations that may impose significant costs and liabilities, potentially affecting financial condition and liquidity[158]. Labor Relations - Labor agreements for approximately 59% of the total workforce are currently under negotiation, with some agreements effective through 2025 and others expiring in 2026 and 2028[132]. Production and Capacity - Key production costs, including alumina, electrical power, carbon products, and labor, represented over 76% of the cost of goods sold for the year ended December 31, 2024[36]. - Approximately 327,000 tonnes, or 30% of Jamalco's alumina production, was sold to the company's aluminum smelters for the year ended December 31, 2024[37]. - The company completed a project to restart approximately 172,000 tonnes of production capacity at Mt. Holly, achieving 75% of its maximum capacity[58]. - The Grundartangi Casthouse Project can produce up to 150,000 tonnes of billet and 120,000 tonnes of primary foundry alloys[59]. Government Support and Incentives - The company entered into a Cooperative Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy for up to $500 million in funding to build a new aluminum smelter in the United States[168]. - The Inflation Reduction Act provides a production tax credit equal to 10% of certain eligible production costs, which may benefit the company[166]. - The company may seek additional government grants and incentives to support the construction of the new aluminum smelter, which is subject to competitive application processes[169]. Cybersecurity - Cybersecurity incidents are increasing in frequency and sophistication, posing risks to the company's information technology systems and potentially impacting business operations[151]. Corporate Governance and Transparency - Century Aluminum provides access to periodic filings through the SEC's EDGAR system, including annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q[74]. - The company offers free copies of its Forms 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K upon request, highlighting transparency in financial reporting[74]. - Century Aluminum's Investor Relations Department can be contacted for document requests, indicating a commitment to shareholder communication[74].

Core Insights - The company focuses on two main investment situations: deep value stocks poised for growth and investment trends triggered by global changes [1] - Emphasis is placed on understanding both change and growth, as change often signifies the start of a new trend [1] - The company conducts thorough research, including insights from industry experts, former employees, and management, to identify mispriced securities [1] Investment Strategy - The investment concepts developed can be either micro or macro in nature, with a strong focus on understanding the situation better than competitors [1] - The company adheres to the principle of "scuttlebutt homework," ensuring comprehensive research before making investment decisions [1] - A dual background in finance and law supports the company's investment strategies, which have consistently outperformed the S&P 500 since the inception of the Fund [1] Motivation for Research - The company aims to generate constructive criticism of its investment ideas to identify potential flaws and improve understanding [1] - There is a commitment to seeking the truth in a landscape filled with varying opinions, guided by the philosophy of radical doubt [1] - The belief is that the best-performing investment ideas are those where potential weaknesses in the thesis are thoroughly understood [1]

Core Insights - Century Aluminum Company (CENX) reported earnings of 47 cents per share for Q4 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 30 cents and showing an increase from 30 cents in the prior-year quarter and 46 cents in the previous quarter [1] - The company achieved net sales of $631 million, a 23.2% year-over-year increase, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $560.8 million, with a sequential sales increase of 17% [2] - Primary aluminum shipments totaled 166,677 tons, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of approximately 4.1% [3] Financial Performance - At the end of Q4 2024, CENX had cash and cash equivalents of $32.9 million, down 63% year-over-year, with net cash used by operating activities amounting to $24.6 million for the year [4] - For Q1 2025, the company forecasts adjusted EBITDA to be between $75 million and $85 million, driven by improved metal pricing and regional premiums, although offset by higher energy and raw material costs [5] Stock Performance - CENX shares have increased by 85.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry average rise of 26.9% [6]

Company Overview - Century Aluminum Company is headquartered in Chicago, IL and operates primary aluminum smelting facilities in the United States and Iceland [2] - The company is the majority owner and managing partner of the Jamalco alumina refinery located in Jamaica [2] Upcoming Events - Jesse Gary, the President and CEO of Century Aluminum, will present and participate in a Q&A session at the BMO Global Metals, Mining, & Critical Minerals Conference on February 25, 2025, at approximately 10:00 a.m. EST [1] Investor Relations - A real-time audio webcast of the conference session will be available on the "Investors" section of Century's website [1]

Group 1 - Century Aluminum Company will have its President and CEO, Jesse Gary, present at the BMO Global Metals, Mining, & Critical Minerals Conference on February 25, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. EST [1] - A real-time audio webcast of the session will be available on the "Investors" section of Century's website [1] - Century Aluminum operates primary aluminum smelting facilities in the United States and Iceland and is the majority owner of the Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica [2] Group 2 - The company has outlined various forward-looking statements regarding its assessment of global and local financial conditions, aluminum market prices, and key raw materials [3] - Future plans include managing market risks, controlling costs, and expectations regarding the operations of its smelters, including the Mt. Holly and Hawesville facilities [3] - The company is also focused on securing competitive power arrangements and assessing the impact of trade actions and regulations on its operations [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Century Aluminum Company generated adjusted EBITDA of $245 million for the full year 2024 and $82 million for Q4 2024, driven by strong aluminum prices and low energy costs [7][21] - Net sales for Q4 were $631 million, an increase of $92 million sequentially, attributed to higher aluminum sales volume and prices [22] - Adjusted net income for Q4 was $46 million or $0.49 per share, with liquidity at $245 million at the end of the quarter [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global shipments in Q4 were approximately 167,000 tonnes, slightly lower than the previous quarter due to year-end shipment timing [21] - The Jamalco acquisition and LME linked commercial contracts helped mitigate alumina price volatility, with alumina prices reaching all-time highs in late 2024 [11][12] - Jamalco achieved a strong start in 2025, with January production at the highest monthly level since acquisition [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aluminum prices averaged $2,575 per tonne in Q4, with spot LME trading above $2,700 in early 2025 [7] - Global aluminum supply is expected to move into a deficit of over 600,000 tonnes in 2025 due to strong demand and constraints on new supply [9][10] - Inventories are at multiyear lows of 49 days, supporting higher aluminum prices moving forward [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing production capacity at Jamalco and has implemented a multiyear CapEx program [17] - A new smelter project is underway, expected to double the size of the U.S. aluminum industry and create over 1,000 full-time jobs [43][44] - The company is evaluating the potential restart of the Mt. Holly smelter, with a positive outlook due to recent tariff announcements [51][52] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong market conditions for aluminum in 2025, with expectations for continued demand growth outpacing supply [6][10] - The impact of recent U.S. Section 232 tariff announcements is anticipated to positively affect the Midwest Premium, which has already risen significantly [41][42] - Management noted that the financial settlement from an alumina supplier will not repeat in future quarters, providing a clearer outlook for Q2 [56] Other Important Information - The company expects Q1 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $75 million to $85 million, influenced by lagged LME and regional premiums [36] - Capital expenditures for sustaining operations are projected at $45 million to $50 million, with additional investments planned for operational efficiencies [39] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Midwest Premiums on Earnings Power - Management confirmed that the increase in Midwest Premiums will not be fully reflected until Q2, with potential annual impacts around $100 million [48][50] Question: Update on Mt. Holly Restart - Management indicated that the tariff program is favorable for Mt. Holly, and they are moving towards a restart, with updates to follow [51][52] Question: Timeline and Investment for Mt. Holly Restart - A restart at Mt. Holly is estimated to take around nine months, with costs to be determined upon decision [59][60] Question: Progress on New Smelter Project - The new smelter project is progressing well, with a $500 million grant from the Department of Energy secured and energy contract negotiations ongoing [64] Question: Demand Growth and Inventory Concerns - Management believes that demand for aluminum will outpace supply growth, with no evidence of significant inventory stockpiling [81][82] Question: Chinese Output and Capacity Cap - Management maintains that China will respect the 45 million tonne production cap, despite recent output increases [84][85]

Century Aluminum Company 4 th Quarter Earnings Call February 20, 2025 Cautionary Statement Certain statements in this presentation, and those made by Century Aluminum Company management on the quarterly conference call, relate to future events and expectations and are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as "believe," "expect," "hope," "target," "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "seek," "estimate," "potential," "project," "schedule ...

Financial Performance - Fourth quarter 2024 net sales increased by 17% sequentially to $631.0 million, driven by higher third-party alumina sales and improved aluminum prices[4]. - Net income attributable to Century stockholders for Q4 2024 was $47.7 million, a slight increase from $47.3 million in Q3 2024, with adjusted net income of $45.9 million[5]. - Full year 2024 net sales reached $2.2 billion, up from $2.185 billion in 2023, with a reported net income of $339.4 million compared to a loss of $43.1 million in 2023[6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $82.4 million, a decrease of $21.3 million sequentially, while full year adjusted EBITDA increased by $125.2 million to $245.2 million[10]. - Full year 2024 results included a $245.9 million bargain purchase gain from the Jamalco acquisition, significantly impacting net income[9]. - Gross profit for the same period rose significantly to $186.4 million, compared to $91.9 million in 2023, marking an increase of 102.5%[19]. - Net income attributable to Century stockholders for 2024 was $339.4 million, a substantial recovery from a net loss of $43.1 million in 2023[19]. - Basic earnings per share for 2024 was $3.46, compared to a loss per share of $0.47 in 2023[19]. - Adjusted net income attributable to Century stockholders for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $339.4 million, resulting in an EPS of $3.66, a significant recovery from a net loss of $43.1 million in the previous year[27]. - Operating income for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $122.8 million, a substantial increase from $31.8 million in the previous year[27]. Sales and Shipments - Shipments of primary aluminum for Q4 2024 were 166,677 tonnes, a 1% decrease from Q3 2024, and full year shipments decreased by 3% to 677,967 tonnes[4]. - Shipments of primary aluminum for the full year 2024 totaled 677,967 tonnes, generating sales of $1,867.9 million, compared to 700,680 tonnes and $1,966.0 million in 2023[24]. Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets increased to $802.8 million in 2024 from $767.1 million in 2023, reflecting a growth of 4.1%[21]. - Total liabilities decreased significantly from $1,502.4 million in 2023 to $1,261.4 million in 2024, a reduction of 16.0%[21]. - The company reported a total equity of $678.0 million as of December 31, 2024, up from $344.1 million in 2023, indicating a growth of 96.9%[21]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2024 were $32.9 million, down from $88.8 million in 2023, a decrease of 63.0%[21]. Future Outlook - The company expects first quarter 2025 Adjusted EBITDA to range between $75 to $85 million, influenced by improved metal pricing and regional premiums[11]. - Century was awarded a $500 million grant by the U.S. Department of Energy to build a new aluminum smelter, indicating significant future growth potential[6]. Other Financial Metrics - The company experienced a net cash used in operating activities of $24.6 million in 2024, a decline from net cash provided of $105.6 million in 2023[23]. - Interest expense for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $36.4 million, slightly up from $33.7 million in the previous year[27]. - Share-based compensation increased to $5.3 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024, compared to $3.2 million in the previous quarter[26]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $82.4 million, down from $103.7 million in the previous quarter[26]. - Adjusted net income for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $45.9 million, down from $60.0 million in the previous quarter[26]. - The impact of Hurricane Beryl at Jamalco resulted in incremental costs, with Century's share amounting to $6.9 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024[27].