Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on long-term freight rates due to over 25% of existing cargo ships being over 20 years old and needing to be scrapped between 2028 and 2030, alongside strong cargo volume growth, particularly on Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa routes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 25% to 46%, reflecting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and the delayed imposition of port fees between China and the U.S. [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 11.5 to HKD 12.5, while the target price for A-shares has been raised from RMB 14.7 to RMB 16, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Management noted a rebound in spot freight rates in October, driven by Black Friday and the anticipated tariffs on Chinese goods, which led to early shipments [1] - The strong performance in third-quarter earnings is attributed to excellent freight rates, particularly due to the high proportion of intra-Asia routes and better cost control compared to peers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on the long-term freight performance of China COSCO Shipping Holdings Co., Ltd. (中远海控), citing the need to retire over 25% of existing cargo ships aged over 20 years between 2028 and 2030, alongside strong growth in freight volumes, particularly on Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa routes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 25% to 46%, reflecting better-than-expected earnings in the third quarter and the delayed collection of port fees between China and the U.S. [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 11.5 to HKD 12.5, while the target price for A-shares has been raised from RMB 14.7 to RMB 16, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Management noted a rebound in spot freight rates in October, driven primarily by Black Friday and the anticipated U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, which led to early shipments [1] - The strong performance in the third quarter is attributed to excellent freight rates, particularly due to the high proportion of intra-Asia routes and better cost control compared to peers [1]

Group 1 - Company announced the repurchase of 6.0591 million A-shares on November 5, 2025, representing 0.0391% of the total share capital as of October 31, 2025 [1] - The shares were repurchased through the Shanghai Stock Exchange trading system at a maximum price of RMB 14.98 per share and a minimum price of RMB 14.86 per share [1] - The total amount paid for the repurchase was RMB 90.5995 million, excluding transaction fees [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China COSCO Shipping Holdings maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on long-term freight rates due to over 25% of existing cargo ships being over 20 years old and needing to be scrapped between 2028 and 2030 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The management highlights strong growth in cargo volume, particularly on routes in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa [1] - There is a noted rebound in spot freight rates in October, driven by Black Friday and the anticipated tariffs on Chinese goods leading to early shipments [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, attributed to strong freight performance, especially in Asia routes, and better cost control compared to peers [1] - Based on the performance, net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 25% to 46%, reflecting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and delays in port fees between China and the U.S. [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustments - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 11.5 to HKD 12.5, while the target price for A-shares has been raised from CNY 14.7 to CNY 16 [1] - The rating remains at "Neutral" [1]

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控) reported a 55% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025, amounting to 9.5 billion RMB, but the performance exceeded expectations due to resilient freight rates and increased cargo volume [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit for Q3 2025 decreased by 55% to 9.5 billion RMB [1] - The recent rebound in freight indices and the suspension of port fees between China and the U.S. are expected to support profitability in Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - There remains a risk of oversupply in 2026, but the company's strong net cash position, which accounts for 63% of its market value, should allow it to navigate through downturns [1] - The rating has been upgraded to "Hold," with the target price increased from 12 HKD to 14.54 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) reported a 55% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025, amounting to 9.5 billion RMB, but the performance exceeded expectations due to resilient freight rates and increased cargo volume [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 9.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 55% decrease compared to the previous year [1] - The recent rebound in freight indices and the suspension of port fees between China and the U.S. are expected to support profitability in Q4 2025 [1] Market Outlook - There remains a risk of oversupply in 2026, but the company’s strong net cash position, which accounts for 63% of its market value, should enable it to navigate through the downturn [1] - The rating has been upgraded to "Hold," with the target price increased from 12 HKD to 14.54 HKD [1]

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，中远海控(01919) 2025年第三季营运表现稳健，透过回购及股息 提供丰厚的股东回报，但预期2026年盈利压力将加剧，将评级由跑赢大市下调至持有，因股价缺乏催化 剂、盈利前景疲弱且目标价上行空间有限，目标价维持14港元。该行指，中远海控2025年第三季营运表 现稳健。 该行将2025年每股盈利预测上调18%，以反映第三季业绩好过预期，但基于运费率与货运量 预测调整，2026至2027年每股盈利预测下调23至47%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that China COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919)(01919) is expected to show stable operational performance in Q3 2025, providing substantial shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends. However, profit pressures are anticipated to increase in 2026, leading to a downgrade in rating from "Outperform" to "Hold" due to a lack of catalysts, weak profit outlook, and limited upside potential for the target price, which remains at HKD 14 [1] Summary by Category - **Operational Performance** - China COSCO Shipping Holdings demonstrated stable operational performance in Q3 2025 [1] - **Earnings Forecast** - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been raised by 18% to reflect better-than-expected Q3 performance [1] - EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by 23% to 47% due to adjustments in freight rates and cargo volume predictions [1] - **Shareholder Returns** - The company is expected to provide substantial shareholder returns through share buybacks and dividends [1] - **Rating and Target Price** - The rating has been downgraded from "Outperform" to "Hold" due to anticipated profit pressures and limited price upside [1] - The target price remains unchanged at HKD 14 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that China COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控) is expected to show stable operational performance in Q3 2025, providing substantial shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends. However, profit pressure is anticipated to increase in 2026, leading to a downgrade in rating from "Outperform" to "Hold" due to a lack of catalysts, weak profit outlook, and limited upside potential for the target price, which remains at HKD 14 [1] Group 1 - The Q3 2025 operational performance of China COSCO Shipping Holdings is robust, with significant shareholder returns expected through buybacks and dividends [1] - The rating has been downgraded from "Outperform" to "Hold" due to anticipated profit pressures in 2026 and a lack of catalysts for stock price movement [1] - The target price is maintained at HKD 14, reflecting limited upside potential [1] Group 2 - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been raised by 18% to reflect better-than-expected Q3 performance [1] - EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by 23% to 47% based on adjustments in freight rates and cargo volume predictions [1]

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SS) Analyst Briefing Summary Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO SHIPPING Holdings - **Stock Codes**: 601919.SS (A-shares), 1919.HK (H-shares) - **Market Cap**: Rmb240.7 billion / $33.8 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb123.2 billion / $17.3 billion - **Current Price**: Rmb15.03 (A-shares), HK$13.67 (H-shares) - **12-month Price Target**: Rmb16.00 (A-shares), HK$12.50 (H-shares) Key Takeaways from the Analyst Briefing Industry Outlook - Management is **cautiously optimistic** about long-term industry freight rates due to: - Over **25%** of existing containerships exceeding **20 years** of age by **2028-30**, necessitating scrapping under decarbonization regulations [2][3] - Strong cargo volume growth, particularly from **Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa** routes [2][19] Q3 Performance Highlights - **Earnings Beat**: Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, attributed to: - Higher freight rates from increased exposure to **intra-Asia routes** [2][23] - Lower costs compared to peers, with container shipping costs rising **6% YoY** but unit costs only increasing **1% YoY** [23] - **Spot Rate Increase**: A pick-up in spot rates was observed in October, driven by strong demand ahead of **Black Friday** and frontloading due to anticipated US tariffs on Chinese goods [2][23] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E: Rmb211,746.6 million - 2026E: Rmb205,699.3 million - 2027E: Rmb206,546.4 million [17] - **EBITDA**: - 2025E: Rmb50,426.7 million - 2026E: Rmb41,488.5 million - 2027E: Rmb37,791.5 million [17] - **EPS**: - 2025E: Rmb1.92 - 2026E: Rmb1.28 - 2027E: Rmb0.95 [17] Cost Management - The company has maintained a lower unit fuel cost compared to peers, attributed to higher fuel efficiency and a greater proportion of self-owned vessels [23] Capital Expenditure - As of September 2025, COSCO has a **Rmb57.8 billion** capital expenditure commitment, with **Rmb53.8 billion** allocated for new vessel construction [23] Regulatory Impact - The delay of **USTR port fees** (Rmb2 billion) on China-built and operated vessels has positively impacted the financial outlook, leading to a revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-27E by **25% to 46%** [21][22] Market Position - COSCO holds the **4th largest container fleet** globally, with a capacity of **3.2 million TEU** as of 1H24 [29] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Unexpected events leading to a reduction in effective capacity - Potential special dividend payouts [28][31] - **Downside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected new ship deliveries - Weaker-than-expected global trade demand [28][31] Conclusion - COSCO SHIPPING Holdings is positioned to benefit from long-term industry trends despite current market challenges. The company’s focus on cost management and strategic route exposure has allowed it to outperform peers in Q3, while regulatory changes have provided a more favorable financial outlook. The investment rating remains **Neutral** due to ongoing uncertainties in global trade dynamics and shipping rates.