Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $2.9 billion, a 6.4% increase compared to Q1 2024[4] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $386.6 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, compared to $359.3 million, or $0.26 per diluted share in Q1 2024[10] - Adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2025 was $396,800, compared to $369,255 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting an increase of 7.5%[29] - Income from operations for Q1 2025 was $479,250, representing 16.7% of total revenue, compared to $441,292 or 16.3% in Q1 2024[38] - The operating margin increased to 16.7% from 16.3% in Q1 2024[8] - Restaurant level operating margin for Q1 2025 was $753,622, representing 26.2% of total revenue, slightly down from 27.5% in Q1 2024[38] Sales and Transactions - Comparable restaurant sales decreased by 0.4%, with a 2.3% decline in transactions offset by a 1.9% increase in average check[4] - Comparable restaurant sales decreased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025, following a 5.4% increase in the previous quarter[24] - Average restaurant sales for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $3,186, slightly down from $3,213 in the previous quarter, a decrease of 0.8%[24] - Digital sales accounted for 35.4% of total food and beverage revenue[4] Costs and Expenses - Labor costs were 25.0% of total revenue, up from 24.4% in Q1 2024, primarily due to wage inflation[7] - General and administrative expenses decreased to $172,783, accounting for 6.0% of total revenue, down from 7.6% in the previous year[38] - Depreciation and amortization expenses increased to $87,211, making up 3.0% of total revenue, compared to 3.1% in the previous year[38] - Pre-opening costs rose to $8,210, maintaining a consistent 0.3% of total revenue year-over-year[38] - Impairment, closure costs, and asset disposals were reported at $6,168, consistent at 0.2% of total revenue for both years[38] Tax and Liabilities - The effective income tax rate for Q1 2025 was 22.9%, up from 22.0% in Q1 2024[9] - Total liabilities remained relatively stable, with a slight increase from $5,548,828 as of December 31, 2024, to $5,553,222 as of March 31, 2025[20] Growth and Expansion - The company opened 57 new restaurants in Q1 2025, with 48 featuring a Chipotlane[5] - The company plans to open 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurants in 2025, with over 80% expected to have a Chipotlane[14] - Company-owned restaurants opened during the first quarter of 2025 totaled 57, while 119 were opened in the previous quarter, indicating a decrease of 52.9%[24] Cash Flow - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of $557,075 for the first quarter of 2025, compared to $569,234 in the same period of 2024, a decrease of 2.1%[22] - The company repurchased common stock amounting to $553,796 during the first quarter of 2025, compared to $27,005 in the same period of 2024[22] Current Assets - Total current assets decreased from $1,780,587 as of December 31, 2024, to $1,661,648 as of March 31, 2025, a decline of 6.7%[20]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill reported a total revenue of $2.9 billion for the first quarter of 2025, marking a 6.4% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by new restaurant openings [4][10] - Comparable restaurant sales decreased by 0.4%, attributed to a 2.3% decline in transactions, which was partially offset by a 1.9% increase in average check [4][10] - The company opened 57 new company-owned restaurants during the quarter, with 48 featuring a Chipotlane, enhancing customer access and convenience [5][10] Financial Performance - Net income for the first quarter of 2025 was $386.6 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, compared to $359.3 million, or $0.262 per diluted share in the same period of 2024, reflecting a 7.7% increase [10][21] - Adjusted net income for the first quarter was $396.8 million, or $0.29 per adjusted diluted share, up from $369.3 million, or $0.272 per adjusted diluted share in the prior year [10][30] - The effective income tax rate increased to 22.9% from 22.0% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced tax benefits related to option exercises and equity vesting [9][10] Cost Structure - Food, beverage, and packaging costs represented 29.2% of total revenue, up from 28.8% in the first quarter of 2024, driven by inflation and increased usage of key ingredients [6][10] - Labor costs accounted for 25.0% of total revenue, an increase from 24.4% in the previous year, mainly due to lower sales volumes and wage inflation [7][10] - General and administrative expenses decreased to $172.8 million from $204.6 million year-over-year, attributed to lower conference expenses and legal reserves [8][10] Operational Highlights - Digital sales constituted 35.4% of total food and beverage revenue, indicating a strong performance in online ordering and delivery [4][10] - The company anticipates opening between 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurants in 2025, with over 80% expected to include a Chipotlane [17] - Chipotle aims to achieve full-year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single-digit range [17]

Shares of fast casual food giant Chipotle (NYSE: CMG ) (NEOE: CMGS:CA ) are down about 22% both in the last six months and year-to-date. Chipotle's stock is also down roughly 20% in This account is managed by Noah's Arc Capital Management. Our goal is provide Wall Street level insights to main street investors. Our research focus is mainly on 20th century stocks (old economy) undergoing a 21st century transformation, but occasionally we'll write on companies that help transform 20th century firms as well. W ...

Group 1: Earnings Season Overview - The earnings season has commenced, with several consumer-facing companies, including Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), American Airlines (AAL), and Skechers (SKX), scheduled to report this week [1] - Guidance from these companies will be critical in assessing the state of the consumer and their post-earnings stock performance [1][8] Group 2: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - CMG shares have declined nearly 25% in 2025, underperforming the S&P 500, with negative EPS revisions leading to a Zacks Consensus EPS estimate of $0.28, down nearly 10% since January [2] - Year-over-year growth is projected at 3.7%, with sales expected to increase by 8.5% to $2.9 billion, reflecting a 5% downward revision [3] - CMG has consistently posted double-digit percentage year-over-year sales growth, with the latest period showing sales of $2.8 billion, a 13% improvement [5] Group 3: American Airlines (AAL) - AAL's guidance will be a significant factor in its earnings release, especially following Delta Air Lines' (DAL) recent results, which indicated a cautious outlook due to economic uncertainty [10] - Analysts have reduced their EPS expectations for AAL, reflecting a broader theme of uncertainty that is likely to influence the stock's movement post-earnings [11][13] Group 4: Skechers (SKX) - SKX shares have dropped over 30% in 2025, following a strong multi-year performance, with analysts cutting EPS expectations by 23% to a current estimate of $1.18 [14][16] - Revenue expectations for SKX remain stable, with quarterly sales projected at $2.4 billion, while margins will be a key focus in the earnings report [16][19] - The stock has seen a decline of approximately 9% over the past two years, suggesting that much of the negative sentiment may already be reflected in the share price [19]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is experiencing a decline in stock price ahead of its first-quarter earnings report, despite announcing its first expansion into Mexico, which may indicate a broader international strategy [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts anticipate Chipotle will report earnings of 28 cents per share on revenue of $2.93 billion, reflecting year-over-year increases of 3.7% and 8.5% respectively [2]. - The stock has a history of mixed earnings reactions, averaging a 6.6% move in either direction over the past eight quarters, with the options market indicating a potential next-day swing of 11.7% [2]. Stock Performance Trends - Chipotle's stock has been in a downtrend for most of 2025, with a year-to-date decline of 24.9% and a 12-month decline of 20.6% [3]. - Recent attempts to rally have been consistently rejected at the 40-day moving average, indicating ongoing bearish sentiment [3]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - BofA Global Research has reduced its price target for Chipotle to $64 from $71, which still represents a 40% premium to current stock levels [6]. - The average 12-month price objective for the stock stands at $63, suggesting potential for further downward revisions [6]. Volatility Assessment - The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is at 25 out of 100, indicating that it has underperformed relative to the volatility expectations priced into its options [7].

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results, with expectations of earnings and revenue growth despite potential headwinds from rising costs and weather disruptions [1][16]. Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Chipotle's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.2%, maintaining a strong record of surpassing earnings expectations with an average surprise of 9.2% over the last four quarters [1][2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is 28 cents per share, reflecting a 3.7% increase from the previous year's 27 cents [6]. Revenue Expectations - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is $2.93 billion, indicating an 8.5% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Factors Influencing Performance - Chipotle's performance is expected to benefit from strong digitalization, expansion efforts, and the introduction of new menu items like Chipotle Honey Chicken [6]. - Digital orders account for over a third of sales, with enhancements in mobile app functionality and drive-thru services contributing to increased average check sizes and operational efficiency [7][8]. Cost and Margin Analysis - Food, beverage, and packaging costs are projected to rise by 11.5% to $869 million, while labor costs are expected to increase by 9.7% to $723.5 million [10]. - The predicted restaurant-level margin for the first quarter is 26.3%, down from 27.5% in the previous year [10]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Chipotle's shares have declined by 16.5% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry, which grew by 0.8% [11]. - The company's stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 5.02X, which is above the industry average [15]. Conclusion - The upcoming earnings report is expected to present both opportunities and challenges for investors, with growth initiatives being countered by rising costs and weather-related issues [16][17].

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill is set to open its first location in Mexico in early 2026 as part of its international expansion strategy [1][2] - The company has signed a development agreement with Alsea, which operates various restaurant chains in Latin America and Europe [1] - Chipotle aims to explore additional expansion opportunities in the broader Latin American region following the initial opening [2] Market Context - The expansion into Mexico occurs amid a trade war between the U.S. and Mexico, which has affected trade relations [3] - Despite diversifying its avocado sourcing, Chipotle still imports approximately 50% of its avocados from Mexico [3] - The company has previously focused primarily on the U.S. market, with international operations including 58 locations in Canada, 20 in the UK, six in France, and two in Germany [4] Consumer Insights - Chipotle believes that Mexico's familiarity with its ingredients and a preference for fresh food will attract consumers [5] - However, there are challenges, as U.S. interpretations of Mexican cuisine may not resonate with the local market, as evidenced by Taco Bell's failed attempts to expand in Mexico [5]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill is set to enter the Mexican market in 2025 through a partnership with Alsea SAB, a prominent Latin American restaurant operator, aiming to leverage the familiarity of Mexican consumers with its ingredients [1][2] Group 1: Market Expansion - The first Chipotle store in Mexico is expected to open in early 2026, with plans to explore expansion into other Latin American markets [1] - Chipotle currently operates over 3,700 locations globally, with a presence in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany [2] Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Analysts caution that despite Chipotle's menu being inspired by Mexican cuisine, it does not guarantee acceptance among local consumers who may prefer authentic local food over American chains [1] - Historical context is provided by the experience of Taco Bell, which struggled in Mexico due to its non-authentic menu items, highlighting the challenge Chipotle may face [2]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill has signed a development agreement with Alsea to open its first restaurant in Mexico by early 2026, marking its entry into the Mexican market [1][2] - The partnership aims to leverage Alsea's expertise in the Mexican restaurant industry to enhance Chipotle's international growth [2][6] - Chipotle's international expansion strategy includes previous agreements with Alshaya Group for openings in the Middle East, with a current portfolio of over 3,700 restaurants across various countries [3][5] Company Overview - Chipotle operates over 3,700 restaurants as of December 31, 2024, in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Germany, Kuwait, and the UAE, and is committed to serving responsibly sourced, real food [5] - The company plans to open between 315 and 345 new restaurants in 2025, with a long-term goal of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada [3][7] - Chipotle's business development group is actively exploring additional growth opportunities through partnerships [4] Alsea Group Overview - Alsea is a leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe, managing over 4,700 units across multiple countries [6] - The company supports its brands through a Shared Services Center that handles administrative and development processes, as well as supply chain management [6]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock price has significantly declined, currently at $48, down from a high of $66.6 in December, indicating a potential bearish trend following a double-top pattern formation [1][2][3]. Stock Performance - The stock has been in a strong downward trend, peaking at $69.15 in 2024 but struggling to maintain that level [2]. - A double-top pattern has formed at $66.6, with a neckline at $48.20, marking its lowest level since August last year [3]. - The stock has fallen below both the 50-week and 200-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting bearish control, with a potential death cross pattern forming [3]. Technical Indicators - Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator are indicating downward momentum, suggesting continued price decline in the coming months [4]. - Initial price targets for the stock are set at $44, with a further target of $35.37, approximately 26% below the current level [5]. Economic and Market Context - Concerns regarding the American economy have intensified, particularly following tariff announcements by former President Trump, which have increased input costs for Chipotle [7][8]. - Chipotle sources about 50% of its avocados from Mexico, making it vulnerable to these tariffs, which could lead to price increases and potential sales declines [8]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has been declining, further complicating the market environment for Chipotle [9]. Earnings Outlook - Upcoming earnings reports are anticipated to provide insights into Chipotle's business performance, with analysts estimating a revenue increase of 9.5% in the last quarter, potentially reaching $3.08 billion [10]. - The average earnings per share (EPS) estimate is $0.28, up from $0.27 last year, with annual revenue projections of $12.6 billion for this year and $14.3 billion by 2026 [11]. - Despite current challenges, Wall Street analysts project a potential stock price increase to $62.35, citing Chipotle's strong market share in the casual dining sector [12].