Core Viewpoint - Analysts at Compass Point believe that tokenized stocks may present a larger revenue opportunity for Coinbase compared to prediction markets, while also lowering the price target for COIN shares from $266 to $230 [1][2]. Revenue Potential - Coinbase could potentially generate $210 million from prediction markets and $230 million from tokenized stocks, although it may take years for this revenue to materialize [2]. - The majority of revenue from prediction markets is estimated to be around $200 million, based on a charge of 1¢ per contract traded [5]. Market Position and Competition - Coinbase is expected to offer tokenized equities to U.S. customers, entering a competitive market among eBrokers, where it may adopt a payment-for-order-flow model [4]. - The analysts express skepticism about users shifting their trading from existing platforms unless Coinbase's stock trading offers similar benefits as traditional eBrokers [5]. Stock Performance - Coinbase shares fell over 5% to $252, while the stock has only increased 1.7% year-to-date, significantly lagging behind Robinhood's stock, which has surged 215% to $118 [3]. Strategic Partnerships - Coinbase has formed a coalition with Robinhood and Kalshi to establish clear rules for prediction markets, indicating a collaborative approach to market entry [7].

Core Insights - Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) shares have decreased by 18.5% over the past three months, underperforming its industry which saw a decline of 10.3% [1][9] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on increased market volatility and rising crypto asset prices as the U.S. aims to become a global crypto hub [2] - Coinbase is expected to have a strong performance in 2026, building on the momentum from an active 2025 while executing its long-term strategic roadmap [2] Company Performance - Coinbase is expanding its market share in U.S. spot and derivatives trading while broadening its product portfolio and global footprint [8] - The company is actively adding new cryptocurrencies and tokenized equities, reflecting its commitment to a pro-crypto ecosystem [8] - Despite strong growth plans, COIN trades at a premium and faces declining earnings estimates [9] Strategic Initiatives - Coinbase has pursued strategies to bridge traditional finance and crypto, including discussions with major U.S. banks on stablecoin pilot programs [10] - The company completed nine acquisitions in 2025 to expand capabilities and accelerate product development [11] - International expansion is a priority, with Coinbase returning to India's market after nearly three years, supported by its investment in CoinDCX [11] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has decreased by 6.3% and 1% respectively in the past 30 days [14] - Revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 imply year-over-year increases of 11.7% and 13.2% respectively, but earnings for 2026 are projected to decrease by 27.1% [15] - COIN shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 45.29, significantly higher than the industry average of 24.21 [16] Valuation and Market Position - The Value Score of F indicates that COIN shares are not cheap and suggest a stretched valuation [18] - Although COIN is more expensive compared to Robinhood (HOOD), it is cheaper than Interactive Brokers (IBKR) [18] - The company’s focus on driving crypto market growth and enhancing trading experiences is expected to support faster growth [19]

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency-related stocks experienced a decline on Monday, with notable drops in several companies [1] - Strategy (MSTR.US) fell over 5%, Coinbase (COIN.US) dropped more than 5.4%, Circle (CRCL.US) decreased by over 8%, Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US) declined more than 6%, and SharpLink Gaming (SBET.US) fell over 5% [1] - Bitcoin's price also saw a decrease of 0.59%, falling below the $88,000 mark [1]

https://t.co/tzbIruORRc ...

RT Token Terminal 📊 (@tokenterminal)the fastest growing tokenized assets on @solana are:stockslike @Tesla @AMD @coinbase @Appleinteresting https://t.co/MBl0UZNct0 ...

巴克莱将Coinbase的目标价从357美元下调至291美元，维持"持有"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - The prediction market is facing scrutiny over potential insider trading, with reports indicating that several Polymarket accounts profited from bets placed before major product announcements by OpenAI and Google, raising questions about the integrity of these platforms [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Activity and Growth - Polymarket and Kalshi have experienced significant increases in trading volume, with Kalshi's trading volume surging approximately fivefold in the past six months, reaching an average daily trading volume of $183 million [2][6] - Polymarket's average daily trading volume has increased over sixfold to $197 million, indicating a growing interest in prediction markets [2][6] Group 2: Suspicious Trading Patterns - Certain accounts have demonstrated a pattern of making large bets shortly before announcements, with a notable case where four accounts profited over $13,000 from bets on OpenAI's new model prior to its release [1][3] - A specific account made over $1 million in a single day by accurately betting on Google's 2025 search data, leading to widespread speculation that the account may be operated by an insider [1][3] Group 3: Regulatory Landscape - The issue of insider trading in prediction markets exists in a regulatory gray area, as the SEC does not oversee these markets, leaving jurisdiction to the CFTC or the Department of Justice [4] - Legal experts suggest that profiting from confidential information in prediction markets could violate legal obligations to employers, likening it to a form of fraud [4] Group 4: Industry Leaders' Perspectives - Industry leaders express mixed views on allowing employees to bet on their companies' activities, with Coinbase's CEO indicating that the issue is not straightforward [5] - Some companies, including Google and Anthropic, have established internal prediction markets where employees can make predictions without using real money, aiming to leverage insider knowledge for better forecasting [5] Group 5: Future Developments - The rapid expansion of prediction markets has prompted companies to consider establishing national standards for insider trading, with several firms forming a new industry organization to advocate for federal regulation [4][6] - As interest in prediction markets grows, platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase are also entering the space, further increasing competition and market activity [6]

Core Insights - The prediction market is facing scrutiny over potential insider trading, with reports indicating that several Polymarket accounts profited from bets placed before major product announcements by OpenAI and Google, raising questions about the integrity of these platforms [1][3] - The rapid growth of prediction markets has intensified regulatory concerns, with significant increases in trading volumes reported for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket [2][7] Group 1: Insider Trading Concerns - Multiple Polymarket accounts made profitable bets on OpenAI's GPT-5.2 release and Google's 2025 search data, leading to suspicions of insider trading [1][3] - KPMG noted a doubling in discussions with corporate clients about including prediction markets in insider trading policies over the past six months [1] - Companies like Robinhood and Coinbase have already updated their policies to restrict employee participation in prediction markets [1] Group 2: Regulatory Landscape - The issue of insider trading in prediction markets exists in a regulatory gray area, as the SEC does not oversee these markets since they do not qualify as securities [4] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or the Department of Justice may have jurisdiction over such cases, but using confidential information for profit could violate legal obligations to employers [4] - A new industry organization has been formed by companies like Kalshi and Coinbase to advocate for federal regulation and establish national standards against insider trading [4] Group 3: Market Growth and Popularity - Kalshi's trading volume surged approximately fivefold in the past six months, with a recent average daily trading volume of $183 million, while Polymarket's daily trading volume increased over sixfold to $197 million [2][7] - The flexibility of prediction markets, allowing bets on various events, has contributed to their popularity, especially with the upcoming 2024 presidential election [7] - Both Kalshi and Polymarket have seen significant user engagement, with Kalshi recently receiving approval from the CFTC to serve U.S. users [7] Group 4: Industry Leaders' Perspectives - Industry leaders express mixed views on allowing employees to bet on their companies' activities, with Coinbase's CEO suggesting that such practices could enhance market accuracy but also compromise market integrity [6] - Some companies, including Google and Anthropic, have established internal prediction markets where employees can make predictions without using real money, aiming to leverage insider knowledge for better forecasting [6]

RT CoinDesk (@CoinDesk)📲 At @SolanaConf @akshaybd revealed @coinbase is giving millions direct access to assets on @Solana through the Coinbase app — paving the way for a future where Fintech apps plug into blockchain instead of managing order books + licenses. https://t.co/qEeVOxMIFF ...

the fastest growing tokenized assets on @solana are:stockslike @Tesla @AMD @coinbase @Appleinteresting https://t.co/MBl0UZNct0 ...