Core Viewpoint - The retail sector presents challenges for investors due to rapidly changing consumer preferences and retailer adaptability, with Costco and Kohl's demonstrating contrasting performance trends [1][2]. Costco - Costco is well-known for its bulk-selling warehouse model, charging an annual membership fee that grants access to a wide range of goods and services at competitive prices [4]. - The company has maintained high membership renewal rates, consistently around 90%, with a recent rate of 92.7% in the U.S. and Canada despite a membership fee increase [5]. - Membership numbers have grown to 79.6 million, up from 76.2 million, and the company operates 905 warehouses, having opened 20 to 30 new locations annually [6]. - Costco's operating income increased by 15.2% to $2.5 billion in the third quarter, reflecting strong profitability [6]. - Over the past five years, Costco's share price has risen by 203.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 98.7% increase [7]. - The stock has a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 56, indicating strong market expectations for continued profitability growth [8]. Kohl's - Kohl's offers a range of moderately priced merchandise but has struggled with declining sales and profits, with fiscal 2024 same-store sales dropping by 6.5% and earnings per diluted share falling by approximately 47% to $1.50 [9][10]. - The company has implemented various initiatives to drive traffic and sales, including integrating Sephora beauty shops and facilitating Amazon returns, but these efforts have not significantly improved sales [9]. - Management projects a further decline in same-store sales of 4% to 6% and diluted earnings per share to fall between $0.10 and $0.60 for the current fiscal year [11]. - The company has experienced leadership instability, with the recent CEO being terminated after a few months, complicating long-term turnaround efforts [11]. - Kohl's board reduced the quarterly dividend from $0.50 to $0.125, a move that typically signals a lack of confidence in future performance [12]. - Over the last five years, Kohl's share price has decreased by more than 55%, and it currently has a low P/E multiple of 9 [12]. Selection - Costco is identified as a better-managed company with consistent execution and growth opportunities, despite its higher valuation compared to Kohl's [13]. - Kohl's is viewed as a less attractive investment due to the current unlikelihood of a turnaround [13].

Legal Dispute - Costco 被 Lululemon 起诉，原因是涉嫌销售后者高端运动休闲服装的廉价仿制品 [1] Industry Implication - 该事件反映了消费者对 Costco 的高度关注 [1]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation's June sales results indicate strong performance, with a year-over-year increase in comparable sales and net sales, which may influence the stock's near-term trajectory [1][3][9] Sales Performance - For the five weeks ended July 6, 2025, Costco reported a 5.8% year-over-year increase in total comparable sales, with net sales rising 8% to $26.44 billion from $24.48 billion [3][9] - Regionally, comparable sales increased by 4.7% in the United States, 6.7% in Canada, and 10.9% in Other International markets, with e-commerce sales surging 11.5% [3][9] Membership Model - Costco's membership-driven model remains a core strength, with a high renewal rate of 92.7% in key markets, contributing to consistent revenue growth [2][4] - As of the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Costco reported 79.6 million paid household members, a 6.8% increase year over year, with executive memberships growing 9% to 37.6 million [5] E-commerce and Logistics - The company has enhanced its e-commerce capabilities, with comparable sales rising 14.8% in the third quarter, and logistics deliveries increasing by 31% [6] - The introduction of a Buy Now Pay Later program has provided members with greater purchasing flexibility [6] Expansion Strategy - Costco opened nine warehouses during the third quarter and plans to open 10 more in the final quarter, aiming for a total of 27 openings in fiscal 2025 [7] Cost Control and Product Mix - The company maintains a disciplined focus on cost control and product mix optimization, with Kirkland Signature sales outpacing overall company growth [8][10] Valuation and Market Position - Costco's stock has outperformed the industry, with shares rallying 13.4% over the past year, while trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 48.33, significantly higher than industry peers [12][14] - Despite the premium valuation, the company's consistent performance and strong customer loyalty may justify the higher price [16][17]

Core Insights - The retail sector in the U.S. reached $7.3 trillion in spending in 2024, indicating a vast market with potential investment opportunities [1] Costco - Costco's business model focuses on low prices, quality merchandise, and a no-frills shopping experience, appealing to customers who value savings over luxury [4] - The company reported a 5.3% increase in same-store sales for fiscal 2024, continuing a trend of growth over the past three fiscal quarters despite macroeconomic challenges [5] - In fiscal 2025 Q3, Costco achieved $62 billion in net sales, showcasing its significant market presence and strong supplier relationships that allow for low pricing [6] - The membership model contributes to Costco's profitability, with a 92.7% renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada, as customers perceive value in their annual fee of $65 [7] - Costco's strong financial performance positions it as a better business compared to competitors, reflected in its high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55 [13] Home Depot - Home Depot faces challenges in the current economic environment, with same-store sales expected to rise only 1% in fiscal 2025 after declines in the previous two years [8][9] - Despite these challenges, favorable industry conditions such as low housing supply and aging housing stock may lead to increased demand for home improvement products in the future [10] - Home Depot is actively pursuing growth through acquisitions, including the purchase of SRS Distribution for over $18.2 billion, aimed at strengthening its position in the professional customer segment [11][12] - While Home Depot is currently struggling, it remains a leader in the home improvement industry, with a P/E ratio of 25, making it a potentially better investment option at this time [14]

Group 1: Earnings Outlook - Many big technology stocks are expected to perform well, while consumer staples stocks are projected to have negative earnings growth of around 3% and consumer discretionary stocks are expected to average negative growth of approximately 5.4% [1] - Persistent inflation in consumer-facing areas, particularly food, is affecting earnings outlook, leading companies to hedge or refrain from issuing future guidance due to uncertainties around tariffs [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - PepsiCo's stock is down 11.75% in 2025 and over 18% in the last 12 months, with revenue declining year-over-year for four consecutive quarters, resulting in negative earnings per share growth [4][5] - Procter & Gamble's stock is down 9.1% in 2025, hitting a 52-week low, as consumers shift towards private label brands, and the company missed on topline expectations while beating EPS expectations by 1 cent [8][9] - Costco Wholesale has delivered a total return of 233.5% over the last five years, but its high P/E ratio over 55x may deter some investors despite its strong growth and profitability [12][13] Group 3: Technical Analysis - PepsiCo's stock shows signs of a bullish reversal with the price above the 50-day simple moving average, although potential resistance exists at the current level [6] - Procter & Gamble's stock is trading at 24x earnings, around the average of the S&P 500, but at a discount to its historical averages, with a significant portion of revenue generated overseas [10] - Costco's stock may face further declines if it breaks support at its 200-day SMA, with a notable support and resistance area around $957 [15]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation's recent sales data indicates its strength as a defensive retail stock, achieving an 8% year-over-year growth in net sales to $26.44 billion, reflecting its value-driven membership model [1][4] Sales Performance - U.S. comparable sales increased by 4.7%, while Canada and other international markets saw gains of 6.7% and 10.9%, respectively, with total comparable sales growing 6.2% in June when excluding gas and forex impacts [2][8] - E-commerce sales rose by 11.5% in June, enhancing Costco's ability to capture consumer spending across various channels [3][8] Market Position - Costco's consistent traffic and resilient comparable sales, along with digital growth, reinforce its reputation as a reliable performer in a challenging retail environment [4] - The stock has outperformed the industry, with shares rising 14.4% over the past year compared to the industry's 6.6% growth [7] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Costco's sales and earnings per share to grow by 8.1% and 11.6% year-over-year, respectively [10] - Current financial-year sales are estimated at $274.97 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 8.06% [13]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) demonstrated consistent comparable sales growth in June, driven by its appeal to value-conscious consumers amid inflationary pressures [2][6] - The company's competitive pricing and quality merchandise, available in-store and online, continue to resonate with shoppers [2][6] Sales Performance - For the five weeks ending July 6, 2025, Costco reported a 5.8% year-over-year increase in total comparable sales, with U.S. sales up 4.7%, Canada up 6.7%, and Other International markets up 10.9% [3][8] - Adjusted comparable sales, excluding gasoline price fluctuations and foreign exchange impacts, showed U.S. comps climbing 5.5%, Canada up 7.9%, and Other International markets up 8.2%, leading to an overall growth of 6.2% [4][8] - E-commerce sales surged 11.5%, or 11.2% when adjusted for fuel and currency headwinds, continuing a trend of double-digit growth from previous months [5][8] Financial Highlights - Costco's net sales for June increased by 8% to $26.44 billion, compared to $24.48 billion in the same period last year, following sales improvements of 6.8% in May and 7% in April [5][8] - The company's resilient business model, characterized by a membership-based structure, high membership renewal rates, and efficient supply-chain management, supports competitive pricing and customer loyalty [6][8] Market Performance - Shares of Costco have advanced 15.3% over the past year, outperforming the Retail – Discount Stores industry's rise of 5.2% [9]

Kirkland Signature is now bigger than some of the world’s biggest companies—and it has become essential to Costco’s business. https://t.co/88YHMLQyHq ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced narrow fluctuations with most sectors declining, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.1% [3] - There were 8 sectors that increased while 16 sectors decreased, with notable gains in Energy (+2.6%), Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+2.4%), and Transportation (+1.2%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant declines included Telecommunications (-4.8%), Insurance (-2.6%), and Banks (-2.5%) [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500's estimated fund flow was -$5.7 billion this week, a decrease from the previous week's +$23.4 billion, with a total of +$216.4 billion over the last 13 weeks [4] - Fund inflows were observed in 11 sectors, with Semiconductor Products and Equipment leading at +$17.2 billion, followed by Transportation (+$6.0 billion) and Energy (+$4.1 billion) [4] - Sectors experiencing fund outflows included Software and Services (-$15.9 billion) and Automotive and Parts (-$8.2 billion) [4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents was adjusted upward by 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase the previous week [5] - Earnings expectations were raised for 21 sectors, with the highest adjustments in Integrated Finance (+0.8%), Automotive and Parts (+0.8%), and Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+0.8%) [5] - Three sectors saw downward revisions, notably Healthcare Equipment and Services (-1.0%) and Telecommunications (-0.2%) [5] Price Performance - The Energy sector recorded a price return of +2.6% this week, while the Telecommunications sector saw a decline of -4.8% [15] - Over the past 52 weeks, the Energy sector has increased by 5.1%, while the Telecommunications sector has decreased by 4.0% [15] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector has shown a remarkable increase of +48.0% over the past 13 weeks [15] Fund Flow Analysis - The Industrial sector led with a net fund inflow of $781 million this week, followed by Energy with $409 million [19] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector also saw significant inflows of $1.716 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] - In contrast, the Software and Services sector experienced the largest outflow of -$1.594 billion [19]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale has significantly outperformed the broader market, with a 200% increase in stock price over the last five years, doubling the S&P 500's return during the same period [1] Group 1: Sales Growth and Opportunities - Costco's sales have accelerated post-pandemic, with annualized revenue growth of about 11% from fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2024, compared to 8% from fiscal 2010 to 2019 [2] - The company has substantial growth opportunities in e-commerce and non-food sales, with e-commerce sales increasing nearly 16% year over year last quarter [6][7] - Costco's competitive advantage lies in its membership model, with nearly 80 million paying households, allowing it to offer low prices and continue expanding [4] Group 2: Expansion Plans - As of the recent quarter, Costco operates 914 warehouses globally, with plans to open 24 new locations in high-quality markets such as Sweden, Japan, South Korea, and Canada [5] - The company is experiencing double-digit sales growth in various non-food categories, including jewelry, toys, and home goods, indicating strong demand for diverse product offerings [8] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock trades at a high earnings multiple of 54 times forward earnings, significantly above the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of 26 [9] - The current P/E ratio is also above Costco's five-year average of 44, raising concerns about the sustainability of such a high valuation given the slowing sales momentum in e-commerce and non-food sales [10][11] - Analysts expect long-term earnings growth at an annualized rate of 9%, which may not justify the current high P/E, potentially leading to disappointing returns for investors [11][12]