[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 14 Jul 2025 香港中国非银行金融 Hong Kong China (Overseas) Non-Bank Financials 一文梳理香港稳定币监管框架、产业链和相关标的 Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulatory Regime and Investment Opportunities Ling Tan ling.ml.tan@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 稳定币发行商与分销商盈利模式清晰、更可能整合产业链资源。从盈利模式的成熟度来看，稳定币发行商与分销 商（包括虚拟资产交易平台、持牌券商及虚拟银行）的商业路径最为清晰：发行商通过储备资产利息与运营成本 的差额实现盈利，分销商则依托交易手续费、稳定币分销分成、staking 等获得稳定收益。 稳定币产业链各环节的价值协同效应显著。我们预计，稳定币发行商与分销商, 未来更可能整 ...

稳定币受到关注 智通财经APP获悉，据报道，加密货币公司正在加快进军美国传统银行业，以利用美国总统唐纳德·特 朗普执政期间更为有利的监管环境。包括Ripple、Circle(CRCL.US)和BitGo在内的几家数字资产领域主 要参与者都申请了国家信托银行牌照，这将允许它们提供有限的银行服务，而无需在每个州都获得牌 照。与此同时，加密货币交易所Kraken准备在未来几周推出借记卡和信用卡，这标志着其将更广泛地转 向金融服务领域。 据报道，Kraken联合首席执行官Arjun Sethi表示，该公司推出信用卡是加密货币融入金融体系的自然进 程的一部分，并补充说，该公司预计将在月底前推出该信用卡。 这些举措凸显了一个重大转变。加密货币公司并不抗拒传统的银行体系，而是正在积极寻求更深入的整 合。在特朗普政府时期，加密货币行业的乐观情绪有所增强，这与乔·拜登执政期间更为谨慎或对抗的 立场形成了鲜明对比。 稳定币发行商Circle表示，获得美国货币监理署(OCC)颁发的信托执照将是连接数字资产与现有金融生 态系统的重要里程碑。目前，Anchorage Digital是唯一一家持有此类国家银行牌照的加密货币公司。 法律专 ...

Group 1 - Guolian Minsheng (01456) expects a net profit of RMB 1.129 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1183% [1] - NIO-SW (09866) saw a rise of over 10% as its sub-brand, Lido, officially launched pre-sales for its new model L90, priced starting at RMB 279,900, which is competitive against similar models [1] - China CNR (01766) rose over 7% following a profit warning, with the rail transit equipment industry showing high demand and Q2 performance exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - Coal stocks experienced a broad increase, with companies like China Qinfa (00866) and China Shenhua (01088) rising over 4%, driven by strong coal prices amid high temperatures [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a rise of 1.5%, with expected net profit growth of about 54% year-on-year for the first half of the year, although short-term impacts from copper tariffs are anticipated [1] Group 3 - WanGuo Data-SW (09698) increased over 6% after its REIT completed offline inquiries with a subscription multiple of 166 times, indicating significant valuation potential [2] - Hengrui Medicine (01276) rose over 4%, reaching a new high, with expectations that its performance and business development will act as key catalysts [2] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increased over 5% as the merger of two shipbuilding companies approaches completion, with Q2 performance exceeding expectations [2] Group 4 - Bitcoin-related stocks saw significant gains, with Bit Origin (BTOG.US) rising 51.72% and SharpLink Gaming (SBET.US) increasing 17.15%, driven by a surge in Bitcoin prices [3] - Gold stocks strengthened amid geopolitical tensions, with Gold ETF (GLD.US) rising 0.96% and Barrick Mining (B.US) increasing 0.71% [3] Group 5 - British Petroleum (BP.US) rose 3.55% as the company anticipates an increase in Q2 oil production and strong trading performance [7] - Huami Technology (ZEPP.US) surged over 69%, projecting a 30% revenue growth for Q2, marking its first growth in three years [7]

Group 1: Market Trends and Influences - Valuations are important, but investment flows and sentiment also significantly impact stock movements, influenced by the rise of ETFs, passive investing, and algorithmic trading [1] - Understanding market sentiment helps investors identify where flows are focused and which companies may experience significant price movements [1] Group 2: Top Stocks on Interactive Brokers - Tesla (TSLA) is the most actively traded stock, driven by its position in electric vehicles and future initiatives like robotaxis and humanoid robots, despite concerns over its high valuation and struggling core EV business [4][5] - Nvidia (NVDA) is highlighted as a leader in AI chip manufacturing, recently reaching a $4 trillion market cap, with ongoing investor interest in its growth potential in AI and autonomous driving, trading at 38 times forward earnings [6][7] - Circle (CRCL), issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has seen its stock surge 554% since going public, with a current market cap of approximately $45 billion, although concerns exist regarding its rapid growth and potential revenue decline due to lower interest rates [8][10] - Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has experienced an 86% stock increase this year, leveraging AI for data analysis and decision-making, but trades at a high valuation of 234 times forward earnings [11][13] - Robinhood (HOOD) has risen 138% this year, benefiting from a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies and improved user monetization through its Robinhood Gold memberships, trading at 63 times forward earnings [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - Circle Internet Group's stock has surged 140% since its IPO, driven by optimism around stablecoin adoption in traditional finance [1] Company Overview - Circle issues USDC, a leading stablecoin designed to maintain a value pegged to the U.S. dollar [1][2] - USDC is redeemable for $1 in cash at any time, ensuring its stability [2] Revenue Model - Circle's revenue primarily comes from holding U.S. Treasuries, with $1.66 billion of its $1.68 billion revenue in 2024 derived from reserve interest [4][5] - The company's revenue is closely linked to the amount of USDC in circulation and U.S. Treasury rates [5] Market Potential - There are currently 62.8 billion USDC in circulation, with expectations for significant growth as adoption increases [6] - The GENIUS Act, which supports stablecoin regulation, is likely to be signed into law this year, enhancing the market environment for USDC [7] Future Projections - Citi's analysis predicts stablecoin circulation could reach approximately $1.6 trillion by 2030, indicating substantial market potential [9] - USDC is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this market, especially as its main competitor, Tether, may not comply with the GENIUS Act [10] Competitive Landscape - USDC may face competition from traditional financial institutions, such as JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America, which are exploring their own stablecoins [11] - The potential introduction of a U.S. dollar central bank digital currency (CBDC) could also pose a challenge to USDC's growth [11] Interest Rate Sensitivity - Circle's revenue is sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields, which are influenced by Federal Reserve interest rates [12] - A 0.25% decrease in the Fed's rate could result in a 10% decline in Circle's revenue, highlighting the impact of interest rate changes [13] Investment Outlook - While stablecoin adoption is expected to grow, there are concerns that the stock may be overvalued due to long-term risks and a lack of competitive advantages [14]

Group 1: Core Concept of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to fiat currencies or commodities [1] - They emerged to address the volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, simplifying the transaction process by allowing users to exchange fiat for stablecoins, which can then be traded on-chain [2] Group 2: Operational Logic - Stablecoins are issued with a 1:1 peg to specific assets, ensuring that for every stablecoin issued, an equivalent asset is held in reserve [3] - When users redeem stablecoins, the corresponding amount is destroyed, and the equivalent reserve asset is paid out, maintaining a synchronized supply [4] Group 3: Types of Stablecoins - Stablecoins can be categorized into four main types: fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC), commodity-collateralized (e.g., PAXG), crypto-collateralized (e.g., DAI), and algorithmic stablecoins (e.g., USNBT) [5] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape - In August 2023, Singapore's Monetary Authority released a regulatory framework for stablecoins, followed by the EU's Crypto Asset Market Regulation in December 2024 [6] - Hong Kong is set to implement its Stablecoin Ordinance in August 2025, with several institutions participating in a regulatory sandbox [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - As of July 2025, the global stablecoin market comprises 264 types with a total market capitalization exceeding $255 billion, with projections suggesting it could reach $2 trillion in the coming years [10] - However, JPMorgan has a more conservative estimate, predicting a market size of only $500 billion by 2028, indicating a growth rate of over 25% regardless of the outlook [10] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Key exchanges include Coinbase, Robinhood, and OSL, which are integral to the stablecoin ecosystem [12] - Major issuers like Circle, which issues USDC, derive most of their revenue from reserve asset yields, making their profitability closely tied to interest rates [14] - Other notable players include PayPal with its PYUSD stablecoin and various entities in the JD and Yuan ecosystems focusing on cross-border payments [16][17][18]

In early June, Circle Internet Group (CRCL -1.64%) went public. It represents a new and exciting way to invest in crypto, with Circle having its own stablecoin, USDC (pegged to the U.S. dollar). It's one of the most popular stablecoins in circulation. And the money people pay for the coin enables Circle to then use those deposits to generate interest income. Not only is it a growth play in crypto, but its business model is also fairly safe -- Circle posted a profit last year.As a result, investors have been ...

Circle Internet Group, Inc. CRCL has become one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street since its blockbuster IPO. Analyst coverage reveals a striking divergence in opinions on the stock, reflecting the complex and uncertain outlook for the company. Bearish: On one end of the spectrum, bearish analysts cite concerns about overvaluation, stagnant USDC supply, margin pressures and regulatory risks.On Tuesday, Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev initiated coverage on CRCL stock with an Underperform rating and an $85 ...

Group 1: Core Concepts of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to fiat currencies or commodities [1][2] - They emerged to address the volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, simplifying the transaction process by allowing users to exchange fiat for stablecoins, which can then be traded on-chain [2][4] - Stablecoins operate on a 1:1 peg mechanism, where each stablecoin issued is backed by an equivalent amount of reserve assets [4][5] Group 2: Types of Stablecoins - Stablecoins can be categorized into four main types: fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC), commodity-collateralized (e.g., PAXG), crypto-collateralized (e.g., DAI), and algorithmic stablecoins (e.g., USNBT) [8] - The market is dominated by fiat-backed stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, which together account for nearly 87% of the market share [8][9] Group 3: Applications and Regulatory Landscape - The use cases for stablecoins are expanding beyond cryptocurrency trading to include cross-border payments, enterprise settlements, retail payment innovations, and inclusive finance [11] - Recent regulatory developments include Singapore's stablecoin framework, the EU's crypto asset regulation, and Hong Kong's stablecoin ordinance, indicating a growing focus on regulatory oversight [15][16] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of July 2025, the global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $255 billion, with optimistic forecasts suggesting a market cap of $3.5 to $4 trillion by the end of 2029 [18] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities include exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood, issuers like Circle and PayPal, and various fintech companies involved in stablecoin applications [21][22][24] - Notable companies in the stablecoin ecosystem include JD Technology, which aims to reduce cross-border costs significantly, and Ant Group, which is actively seeking stablecoin licenses [25][28]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation on August 1 is expected to transform the financial system, enhancing cross-border remittance efficiency and reducing reliance on traditional banking systems like SWIFT [1][3]. Group 1: Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency whose value is pegged to fiat currencies or commodities, making them less volatile compared to other cryptocurrencies [3]. - The global legislative interest in stablecoins is rising, with various countries, including the US and UK, advancing their own regulations [3]. Group 2: Advantages of Stablecoins - Stablecoins can mitigate geopolitical risks by providing a stable value without the need for traditional banking transactions, potentially serving as an alternative to SWIFT for cross-border transactions [3][5]. - Transactions using stablecoins are faster and cheaper compared to traditional banking systems, with blockchain technology enabling transaction confirmations in about one minute, significantly reducing settlement times and costs [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The clarity in stablecoin regulations has led to increased interest in related stocks in both US and Hong Kong markets, with a list of companies involved in stablecoin issuance and technology emerging [7]. - Major companies like Circle, Coinbase, and PayPal are actively involved in the stablecoin space, indicating a growing market presence [7]. Group 4: Impact on the Renminbi - The development of stablecoins could bolster the international status of the Renminbi, with Hong Kong potentially serving as a testing ground for Renminbi-linked stablecoins [8][10]. - Recent data shows that the Renminbi's share in bilateral trade settlements has reached over 30%, suggesting a growing acceptance that could be further enhanced by stablecoin initiatives [10]. Group 5: Challenges and Considerations - Despite the potential benefits, the international recognition of the Renminbi still depends on its inherent attractiveness, which is currently challenged by concerns over China's debt levels and economic stability [10]. - Structural reforms and easing of currency controls are necessary to enhance the appeal of Renminbi assets in the global market [10].