文 / 高歌 特朗普在发言中并未指明美国哪些油气企业将前往委内瑞拉，从实际情况看，雪佛龙在委内瑞拉一直 保有业务。"其他美企如若重塑委内瑞拉石油产业链，则需先解决此前国有化和资产纠纷问题。"闫 建涛表示。 在供应过剩预期与需求疲软驱动下，短期地缘事件并未扭转价格走弱格局，国际与国内原油价格延续 下行趋势。 当地时间2026年1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委内瑞拉总统 马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞拉。他同时表示，美国大型石油公司将前往委内瑞拉，投入数十亿美 元，维修损坏严重的石油基础设施。 对此 ， 国际原油市场 表现平淡。 1月5日，国际油价低开，WTI原油期货周一亚市早盘低开1%，报56.76美元/桶；布伦特原油期货 价格一度下跌1.2%，至每桶60美元。 国内原油期货方面 ， 1月5日，上海国际能源交易中心（INE）原油主力合约（SC.INE）收盘报 421.70元/桶，较前一交易日下跌3.39%，日内持仓量增至34,256手，资金净流入约8.32亿元。当 日结算价为426.80元/桶，收盘价低于结算价，显示盘后市场情绪偏空。 委内瑞拉已探明储量约3030亿桶（占全球17% ...

1月5日，美股石油股盘前走强，截至发稿， 斯伦贝谢、哈利伯顿涨超10%， 雪佛龙、康菲石油涨超 8%，埃克森美孚涨超3%。 | 雪佛龙(CHEVRON) | | CVX | | --- | --- | --- | | 155.900 | | +3.490 +2.29% | | NYSE USD 20:04:00 | | ANI | | 盘前价 | 168.690 张幅额 | 8.20% | | 涨跌 *** | 12.790 | 2.75万 | | 第一 | 169.430 | - | 消息面上，据央视新闻， 美军3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并 将其强行带往美国。 特朗普表示，将让美国大型石油公司进入委内瑞拉，投入数十亿美元，修复严重破损的基础设施，尤其 是石油基础设施，并开始创造收益。 编辑 ｜心一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio continues to reflect Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, even after he has stepped down as CEO, as he remains the largest shareholder and chairman of the board [2][3]. Group 1: Portfolio Composition - Nearly 65% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio is concentrated in five key stocks as of early 2026 [3]. - The largest holding is Apple, comprising 21.1% of the portfolio with 238,212,764 shares owned [5]. - American Express is the second-largest holding at 18.3% of the portfolio, with Buffett indicating it is a stock Berkshire would own indefinitely [8]. - Bank of America represents 10.2% of the portfolio, with a valuation of over $31 billion [9]. - The Coca-Cola Company is the fourth-largest holding, with 400 million shares owned, reflecting Buffett's long-term commitment to the brand [12]. - Chevron ranks fifth in the portfolio, with over 122 million shares owned, generating substantial income through its attractive dividend yield of 4.5% [14][16]. Group 2: Future Considerations - There is speculation that Greg Abel, Buffett's successor, may consider trimming the stake in Apple, although this is viewed as a potential mistake given Apple's strong customer loyalty and future product developments [7]. - It is unlikely that significant changes will occur in Berkshire's stake in American Express, as it is viewed as a "wonderful business" [9]. - The future of Bank of America under Abel's leadership remains uncertain, but no significant sales are expected due to its attractive valuation [11]. - Coca-Cola is expected to remain a long-term holding, with no anticipated sales under Abel's direction [13]. - While there may be some trimming of the Chevron position, it is expected that Berkshire will maintain a significant stake due to the income it generates [16].

Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - The arrest of Nicolás Maduro has led to a repricing of global risk, with Wall Street showing measured reactions despite the geopolitical shock [6][24] - Gold prices surged 2.1% to above $4,420 an ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical unpredictability and expectations of lower US interest rates [2][15] - Oil prices briefly dipped, with Brent near $60 and WTI around $57, but stabilized as markets assessed potential supply disruptions against a well-supplied global market [3][12] Oil Market Dynamics - Venezuela's oil production has decreased to less than one million barrels per day, accounting for under 1% of global supply, limiting long-term economic fallout from the geopolitical situation [8][24] - OPEC+ has paused additional supply increases, indicating that the situation remains too fluid for immediate action, with expectations of a surplus in global oil markets throughout the year [13][25] - Long-term investments from US oil majors could potentially triple Venezuela's output back to historic levels of 3 million barrels per day [14][25] Technology Sector Performance - Technology stocks are experiencing growth, driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand, with notable gains in companies like NVIDIA and Intel [17][20] - TSMC raised its price target by 35%, anticipating strong AI-driven demand and plans to invest $150 billion over the next three years to expand capacity [18][25] - The CES technology show is expected to further highlight innovation themes, reinforcing investor interest in tech stocks [17][25] Economic Data and Market Outlook - The upcoming US jobs report is a key focus, with expectations of payroll growth around 55,000, indicating a cooling labor market [21][22] - A softer jobs report could lead to further Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would generally support equities, particularly growth stocks [22][23] - Markets are currently displaying cautious optimism, willing to overlook geopolitical shocks as long as economic fundamentals remain stable [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. oil companies' shares experienced significant increases in premarket trading due to investor reactions to the Trump administration's unexpected military operation in Venezuela [1]. Company Performance - Chevron shares rose by 6.5% at 9:22 a.m. London time (4:22 a.m. ET) [1]. - Exxon Mobil's shares increased by 3.2% [1]. - SLB, a major player in oilfield services, saw its shares climb more than 8% [1].

分析人士指出，由于上周末委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗被美国抓获，为能源巨头雪佛龙扩大在该产油国的业 务奠定了基础。雪佛龙是目前唯一在委内瑞拉开展业务的美国大型石油公司，而该国在马杜罗及其前任 查韦斯执政期间，与华盛顿的关系多年来一直处于动荡之中。摩根大通分析师在致客户的报告中指出， 新政府领导下对雪佛龙运营限制的放宽，可能会推高委内瑞拉的石油产量。另一家可能从扩大委内瑞拉 业务中获益的美国能源公司是康菲石油。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 盘前涨跌幅 ∨ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COP | 康菲石油 | (0) | 8.73% | | CVX | 雪佛龙 | | 8.31% | | XOM | 埃克森美孚 | | 3.38% | | APA | 阿帕奇石油 | | 2.80% | | 代码 | 名称 | | 盘前涨跌幅 √ | | HAL | 哈里伯顿 | 0) | 10.14% | | SLB | 斯伦贝谢 | | 9.45% | | BKR | Baker Hughes | | 7.34% | 美股油气股盘前集体大涨，其中，哈里伯顿涨超10%，斯伦贝谢涨超9%，雪佛龙、康菲石油涨 ...

地缘政治紧张态势以不确定性溢价的形式渗透到国际政治经济运行之中 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 金焱 发自华盛顿 编辑｜苏琦 贵金属在2025年走出历史级牛市行情，委内瑞拉局势在2026年伊始的陡然升级，新的地缘政治风险使投 资者迅速涌向贵金属寻求避险，推动黄金和白银价格扭转此前跌势。2025年国际原油市场整体承压，油 价在全年交易中持续走弱，布伦特原油和美原油累计跌幅均接近20%，创下自2020年以来的最大年度跌 幅。布伦特原油已连续第三年下跌，形成有记录以来持续时间最长的年度连跌周期。 白宫已要求美国各大石油公司对委内瑞拉大量投资，修复委内瑞拉原油开采基础设施。据美媒报道，美 国官员最近数周告诉美国石油企业高管，如果他们"希望就被委内瑞拉政府没收的钻井平台、管道及其 他财产获得赔偿，就必须准备好现在重返委内瑞拉并大规模投资，振兴其遭重创的石油产业"。业内人 士对政府这一要求持审慎态度，他们担心重建委内瑞拉破败的油田前景不明，而且未来一段时间内委内 瑞拉政局也不明朗。 尽管美国总统特朗普押注委内瑞拉的石油，但短期内原油供应风险方向尚不明朗。莱斯大学贝克公共政 策研究所拉美能源政策主任弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪（Franc ...

20世纪末，委石油产业向外资重新开放，美国雪佛龙、埃克森美孚、康菲等石油企业进驻。查韦斯1999 年当选委总统，2007年要求开发委油田项目的外资企业须与委方油企合作，且项目须由委方控股。埃克 森美孚、康菲拒绝配合，随后撤出委市场。雪佛龙和其他一些外国油企则接受了相关政策，继续在委经 营业务。随着美国持续加码对委经济制裁，雪佛龙是目前唯一仍在运营委油田项目的美国大型油企。 美国务卿鲁比奥4日在美国哥伦比亚广播公司节目中说，将继续实施其所谓"石油隔离"手段，以施压委 内瑞拉改变政策，包括改变"石油产业管理方式"和"停止贩毒"。 在委内瑞拉的主要港口，大量原油和燃油等待装运出海。路透社援引消息人士的说法报道，委内瑞拉国 家石油公司用于稀释重油以便装运的稀释剂也严重短缺，不得不陆续关闭一些油田和钻井平台，同时对 旗下子公司以及外资合营企业提出削减产量要求。不过，相关合资企业对这一说法未予证实。 委内瑞拉已探明石油储量超过3000亿桶，约占全球储量的17%，排名第一，主产重质原油，多集中于该 国中部的奥里诺科地区。按照美国能源部的说法，重油生产成本高于轻质原油，但技术上相对简单。20 世纪70年代，委内瑞拉政府正式将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by the U.S. leading to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has prompted a reevaluation of control over Venezuela's oil industry, presenting both opportunities and risks for foreign investors, particularly in the context of a potential pro-U.S. government [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The geopolitical shift in Venezuela may allow for a reconstruction of its energy sector, which has been in decline for years, potentially benefiting companies like Chevron if a supportive government emerges [1][3]. - Venezuela's oil production has plummeted from a peak of approximately 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997 to about 950,000 barrels per day currently, with exports around 550,000 barrels per day, indicating a significant market opportunity for international firms capable of investment and technological upgrades [3][6]. Group 2: Short-term Supply Risks - Concerns about short-term supply disruptions are primarily linked to uncertainties in the commercial payment chain, as buyers may halt transactions due to unclear authority in Venezuela [4]. - Despite these concerns, Chevron is expected to maintain an export volume of 150,000 barrels per day, which is crucial for alleviating supply pressures in the market [4]. Group 3: Long-term Recovery Challenges - The recovery of Venezuela's oil industry faces severe challenges due to decades of underinvestment and deteriorating infrastructure, requiring annual capital injections of at least $10 billion and a stable security environment for any meaningful turnaround [2][6]. - Experts warn that even with a change in government, significant investment and time will be necessary to restore the oil sector, making immediate increases in production unlikely [6].

Core Viewpoint - The arrest of Nicolás Maduro forces investors to reassess control over Venezuela's oil resources and the potential for recovery in the country's oil industry after decades of decline [1] Group 1: Control and Operations - The state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), controls the vast majority of the country's oil production and reserves [1] - Chevron operates in Venezuela through independent production and joint ventures with PDVSA [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Experts warn that any regime change could disrupt the commercial chain of Venezuela's oil supply [1] - The current uncertainty regarding power dynamics may lead buyers to pause purchases due to confusion over payment recipients, potentially resulting in a complete halt of oil exports [1] Group 3: Sanctions Impact - Recent U.S. sanctions targeting the "shadow fleet" have severely impacted Venezuela's oil exports, forcing the country to cut production [1]