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农产品日报-20260326
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 13:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean: ★★★ [1] - Soybean oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live hog: ★★★ [1] - Egg: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybeans have stopped falling, and the auction price has provided phased support for soybean prices. The impact of the Middle East situation on energy prices, as well as macro expectations and capital trends, need to be continuously monitored [2]. - The average expected planting area of new - season soybeans in the United States is 85.549 million acres, and the soybean inventory is expected to reach 2.063 billion bushels, a 8% increase year - on - year. Multiple factors affect the prices of soybeans and soybean meal, and uncertainties are increasing [3]. - Due to the rising crude oil prices, soybean oil and palm oil have also increased. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US biodiesel policy, and the Middle East situation and macro factors need to be monitored [4]. - The rapeseed sector has risen slightly, and the supply - demand fundamentals will face pressure from increased supply. The US biodiesel policy and the Middle East geopolitical situation are important factors [6]. - Dalian corn futures are fluctuating weakly. The increase in the auction volume of state - supported wheat may impact corn prices [7]. - The live hog futures have increased in positions, and the 05 contract has reached a new low. The supply - demand situation in 2026 is loose, and the pig price is expected to remain low to promote capacity reduction [8]. - The egg futures have increased in positions, and the spot price is stable. The egg inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybeans has stopped falling. The auction of 104,000 tons of soybeans by CGSGB resulted in an actual transaction of 64,900 tons, with a base price of 4,500 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,505 yuan/ton, providing phased support for soybean prices [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The average expected planting area of new - season soybeans in the United States is 85.549 million acres, higher than the previous value of 81.215 million acres and the USDA's February forecast of 85 million acres. The average predicted soybean inventory in the United States is 2.063 billion bushels, an 8% increase year - on - year [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Crude oil prices have risen again due to concerns about the continuous conflict in the Middle East. Soybean oil and palm oil have followed suit. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US biodiesel policy [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector has risen slightly, with rapeseed oil performing better than rapeseed meal. The US biodiesel policy and the Middle East geopolitical situation are important factors affecting the supply - demand fundamentals [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures are fluctuating weakly. The domestic port prices are stable, and the increase in the auction volume of state - supported wheat may impact corn prices [7]. Live Hog - Live hog futures have increased in positions, and the 05 contract has reached a new low. The supply - demand situation in 2026 is loose, and the pig price is expected to remain low to promote capacity reduction [8]. Egg - Egg futures have increased in positions, and the spot price is stable. The egg inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9].
市场整体清淡,区域价差走缩
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-11 05:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg industry is neutral [6] 2. Core Views - The pig market is generally sluggish with narrowing regional price spreads. Pig prices continue to oscillate narrowly and decline. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to change significantly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the bottom - support strength of pig prices [1][2] - Egg prices continue to stabilize and rise slightly. The increase is supported by rising raw material costs and improving demand. The overall egg - poultry production capacity is sufficient, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory pressure [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2605 contract yesterday was 11,180 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 10.29 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.06 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 10.57 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.06 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.13 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.00 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On March 10, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 123.63, down 0.15 points from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 16.90 yuan/kg, down 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - Pig prices show a narrow - range oscillating downward trend. The number of price - stabilizing regions has increased. The slaughter volume of the breeding end is rising, and the market is in the off - season of consumption. The demand of the terminal market is weak, and the procurement expectation of the slaughter end is cautious [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2605 contract yesterday was 3412 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 15.00 yuan (- 0.44%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.93 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.06; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.00; in Hebei, it was 2.84 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.00 [3] - Inventory: On March 10, 2026, the production - link inventory was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.11 days (9.48%) from the previous day; the circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days, a decrease of 0.05 days (3.52%) [3] Market Analysis - Egg prices continue to stabilize and rise slightly. The increase is supported by rising raw material costs and improving demand. The inventory pressure in the production area is decreasing, and the inventory in the sales area is under limited pressure [4][5] Strategy - Neutral [6]
商务预报:2月16日-22日36个大中城市食用农产品零售价格情况
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2026-02-27 07:58
Core Viewpoint - The report provides a detailed analysis of retail prices for various food items, highlighting both month-on-month and year-on-year changes in prices, indicating trends in the food market. Group 1: Grain Prices - Rice is priced at 6.50 yuan/kg, showing no change month-on-month and a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [1] - Flour is priced at 6.09 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month and a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cooking Oil Prices - Soybean oil is priced at 12.78 yuan/kg, with a minor decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year [1] - Peanut oil is priced at 28.71 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and no change year-on-year [1] - Canola oil is priced at 16.72 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year [1] - Blended oil is priced at 15.56 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged month-on-month and showing a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Meat Prices - Pork (hind leg) is priced at 26.76 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a significant decrease of 9.7% year-on-year [1] - White strip chicken is priced at 24.86 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged month-on-month and showing a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year [1] Group 4: Egg Prices - Fresh eggs are priced at 10.69 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month and a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year [1] Group 5: Aquatic Product Prices - Carp is priced at 22.53 yuan/kg, with an increase of 1.6% month-on-month and an increase of 4.4% year-on-year [1] - Silver carp is priced at 22.43 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month and an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [1] - Grass carp is priced at 23.95 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.6% month-on-month and an increase of 11.3% year-on-year [1] - Crucian carp is priced at 30.01 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and an increase of 4.8% year-on-year [1] - Large hairtail is priced at 48.41 yuan/kg, with a minor decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and an increase of 0.6% year-on-year [1] - Large yellow croaker is priced at 55.96 yuan/kg, with a minor decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and an increase of 10.0% year-on-year [1] Group 6: Vegetable Prices - The average price of vegetables is 8.58 yuan/kg, with an increase of 1.1% month-on-month and an increase of 11.3% year-on-year [1] - The top five vegetables with the highest month-on-month price increases include yam (13.40 yuan/kg, +4.0%), asparagus lettuce (7.63 yuan/kg, +3.7%), cucumber (9.89 yuan/kg, +3.7%), Chinese cabbage (3.55 yuan/kg, +2.3%), and celery (7.19 yuan/kg, +2.1%) [1] - The top five vegetables with the largest month-on-month price decreases include bitter melon (12.76 yuan/kg, -0.7%), tomato (9.45 yuan/kg, -0.6%), eggplant (8.73 yuan/kg, -0.5%), chili (13.24 yuan/kg, -0.3%), and ginger (14.74 yuan/kg, -0.2%) [1]
商务预报:2月16日至22日食用农产品价格略有上涨 生产资料价格略有下降
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2026-02-27 07:15
Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables is 5.60 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.3%, with celery, lettuce, and cabbage rising by 5.7%, 5.0%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with citrus, pears, and grapes rising by 1.0%, 1.0%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with large hairtail, silver carp, and carp rising by 1.2%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale price of pork is 18.98 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.5%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising by 0.1%, while peanut oil and rice remained unchanged, and flour decreased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices showed a slight decline, with white strip chicken remaining stable and eggs decreasing by 0.6% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to decline, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 1.1%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices slightly decreased, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber falling by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable with slight declines, where ordinary medium plates and welded steel pipes were priced at 3620 yuan and 3708 yuan per ton, respectively, while hot-rolled strip steel and rebar decreased by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices remained stable, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 777 yuan and 1043 yuan per ton, respectively, while anthracite coal decreased by 0.1% [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials remained stable, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene unchanged, while methanol decreased by 0.2% [2] - Wholesale prices of finished oil showed slight increases, with 95 gasoline and 0 diesel remaining stable, while 92 gasoline increased by 0.2% [2] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with urea rising by 0.3%, while compound fertilizers remained unchanged [2]
2025年12月全国花生仁(中等)集贸市场价格当期值13.86元/公斤,同比下滑1.5%
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2026-02-02 05:10
Core Insights - The national market price for medium peanuts in December 2025 is 13.86 yuan per kilogram, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan compared to November 2025, indicating stability in month-on-month pricing with a reduced decline rate of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Price Trends - The year-on-year price decline for medium peanuts is 1.5%, while the month-on-month price change remains consistent [1] - There is an increase in the growth rate of 0.5 percentage points compared to previous data [1]
全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.61元/公斤 较前一日上升0.1%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 07:25
Core Insights - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets is 18.61 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the previous day [1] - The average price of eggs is 8.62 yuan per kilogram, showing a 0.5% increase from the previous day [1] Price Trends - Pork price increase: 0.1% rise to 18.61 yuan/kg [1] - Egg price increase: 0.5% rise to 8.62 yuan/kg [1]
商务预报:1月19日至25日食用农产品价格略有上涨 生产资料价格略有下降
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2026-01-30 06:24
Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.9% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.75 yuan per kilogram, rising by 1.8%, with notable increases in zucchini (9.1%), cabbage (6.4%), and cucumber (5.4%) [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products saw slight increases, with carp, yellow croaker, and crucian carp rising by 1.2%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [1] - Overall wholesale prices of meat increased, with pork priced at 19.09 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.4%, while lamb and beef rose by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [1] - Poultry product prices fluctuated slightly, with eggs increasing by 4.3% and broiler chickens decreasing by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits remained stable, with citrus, bananas, and pears increasing by 1.7%, 0.9%, and 0.3%, while watermelon, grapes, and apples decreased by 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed a slight decline, with flour remaining stable, while soybean oil, peanut oil, rice, and rapeseed oil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly decreased, with zinc, copper, and aluminum falling by 2.1%, 2.0%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced a slight decline, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber decreasing by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices showed a minor decrease, with channel steel, ordinary medium plates, and rebar priced at 3547 yuan, 3637 yuan, and 3363 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices fluctuated slightly, with urea decreasing by 0.1% and compound fertilizer increasing by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices showed minor fluctuations, with thermal coal and smokeless lump coal priced at 777 yuan and 1138 yuan per ton, both down by 0.3%, while coking coal increased by 1.2% to 1047 yuan per ton [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly increased, with 95-octane gasoline, 92-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel rising by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials saw slight increases, with sulfuric acid rising by 1.1%, while soda ash, polypropylene, and methanol decreased by 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2]
中国宏观周报(2026年1月第4周)-20260126
Ping An Securities· 2026-01-26 07:09
Industrial Sector - In January, daily average pig iron production and float glass operating rates remained stable, while asphalt and some chemical products saw a decline in operating rates[4] - The apparent demand for major steel products decreased, while cement clinker capacity utilization increased[4] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires increased, while full-steel tire operating rates declined[20] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.5% year-on-year as of January 23, with a similar decline of 38.6% for the month of January[21] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.93% week-on-week, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[29] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.5% year-on-year as of January 16, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous value[33] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 5.4% year-on-year as of January 18, a drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous value[32] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of January 18, an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value[35] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.6% year-on-year, also showing an increase from previous values[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 1.1%, while the Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index fell by 0.9% and the Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 3.0%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 1.7% week-on-week[40]
全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.65元/公斤 较上周五上升0.9%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-01-26 06:28
Core Insights - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets has increased to 18.65 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 0.9% rise compared to the previous Friday [1] - The average price of eggs has also seen an increase, reaching 8.41 yuan per kilogram, which is a 0.6% rise from the previous Friday [1] Price Trends - Pork average price: 18.65 yuan/kg, up 0.9% from last week [1] - Egg average price: 8.41 yuan/kg, up 0.6% from last week [1]
商务预报:1月12日至18日食用农产品和生产资料价格略有上涨
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2026-01-23 08:03
Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.2% from the previous week [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products saw slight increases, with grass carp, silver carp, and crucian carp rising by 0.9%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices also experienced slight increases, with pork priced at 18.82 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.8%, while beef and lamb rose by 0.3% [1] - Poultry product prices remained stable with a slight increase in egg prices by 2.9% [1] - Average wholesale prices of six types of fruits showed minor fluctuations, with grapes, apples, and watermelons increasing by 2.4%, 2.0%, and 0.1%, while citrus, pears, and bananas decreased by 4.4%, 3.1%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil increasing by 0.2%, while rice, flour, and peanut oil decreased by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.65 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.5%, with lettuce, bitter melon, and tomatoes decreasing by 4.6%, 3.3%, and 3.0% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with zinc, aluminum, and copper increasing by 3.7%, 1.7%, and 1.4% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices saw slight increases, with urea and compound fertilizers rising by 0.7% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed mixed trends, with synthetic rubber increasing by 1.3% and natural rubber decreasing by 0.3% [2] - Coal prices experienced slight fluctuations, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 779 yuan and 1035 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while smokeless lump coal decreased by 0.4% [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials showed slight fluctuations, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and methanol all decreasing by 0.1%, while polypropylene increased by 0.6% [2] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products remained stable with slight declines, as 95-octane gasoline and 92-octane gasoline remained unchanged, while 0-octane diesel decreased by 0.2% [2] - Steel prices showed slight declines, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and channel steel priced at 3369 yuan, 3518 yuan, and 3556 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2]