Alistair Berg Duolingo (NASDAQ:DUOL) is the global leader in language learning. I ignored this company after its IPO in 2021 and rediscovered it earlier this year after I decided to learn Spanish. A positive experience as a Duolingo student led me to research the company as an investment. I view Duolingo as a strong growth stock pick at ~190/share - which is ~31x trailing free cash flow (FCF) - and I continue to build a position myself. Below, I make my case for investing in Duolingo stock by considering th ...

海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 营收超预期，DAU 与 MAU 迅速增长 事件： Duolingo 2024Q2 公司实现收入 1.78 亿美元，同比+41%，略高于彭 博一致预期（1.77 亿美元）；毛利润为 1.31 亿美元，略高于彭博一 致预期（1.30 亿美元）；毛利率为 73.45%，略高于彭博一致预期 （73.35%）。调整后 EBITDA 0.48 亿美元，同比+130%，超越彭博一 致预期（0.39 亿美元）。调后 EBITDA 利润率为 27.0%，超越彭博一 致预期（21.65%）；Non-GAAP EPS 0.51 美元，大超彭博一致预期（0.35 美元）。 DAU、MAU 增长迅速，DAU 与 MAU 比例创历史新高：二季度， Duolingo 付费订阅人数达 800 万，同比+52%，超越彭博一致预期 （773 万）；DAU 达 3410 万，同比+59%，超越彭博一致预期（3292 万）；MAU 达 1.04 亿，同比+40%，超越彭博一致预期（9801 万）； DAU 与 MAU 比例为 33%，达到历史新高。 Duolingo Max：作为最高定价服务层级，Max 已在 27 ...

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Duolingo with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of $200.27, based on a 30x 2025E PE multiple [2][5][7] - The target price implies a 6.9% upside from the closing price of $187.38 as of August 9, 2024 [8] Core Investment Thesis - Duolingo is a global leader in gamified mobile learning with over 500 million cumulative users and nearly 100 million MAUs as of Q1 2024 [2][10] - The company has successfully combined gaming elements with language learning, achieving high user retention rates comparable to top casual games [3][35] - Duolingo's subscription-based model provides more stable revenue streams compared to traditional casual games that rely heavily on advertising [4][42] Growth Drivers - Emerging markets present significant growth opportunities, with current penetration rates below 0.4% in countries like China and India [39] - The family plan offering has shown strong traction, with subscription share increasing from 18% to 20% between late 2023 and Q2 2024 [19] - New product launches, including Duolingo Math and Duolingo Music, are expanding the company's addressable market [15] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from $739.9 million in 2024E to $1.15 billion in 2026E, representing a 3-year CAGR of 25.1% [6][47] - Non-GAAP net income is projected to increase from $213.2 million in 2024E to $385.2 million in 2026E [5][49] - The company achieved positive GAAP net income for the first time in 2023, with profitability expected to improve further due to scale effects [22][23] Competitive Advantages - Duolingo's gamification strategy has resulted in user retention rates approaching those of top casual games, significantly higher than traditional education platforms [35][36] - The company's AI-powered personalization engine, Birdbrain, and integration of GPT-4 features in Duolingo Max enhance user experience and engagement [41] - Duolingo benefits from low customer acquisition costs (CPI < $0.5) compared to the casual gaming industry average of $1.79 [45] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The 30x 2025E PE multiple reflects Duolingo's higher growth potential compared to peers in both education and gaming sectors [51] - Comparable companies in education (e.g., Coursera, New Oriental) and gaming (e.g., EA, Nintendo) trade at an average 25E PE of 20.39x [51][53] - The valuation considers Duolingo's unique position at the intersection of education and gaming, with significant room for monetization improvement [5][51]

司 跟踪报 ＃assAuthor＃ 外 研 公 告 海 究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------| | ＃市场 ma 数 rk 据 etData ＃ | | ＃ | | 日期 | 2024.08.09 | | | 收盘价（美元） 总股本（亿股） | 187.38 0.44 | | | 总市值（亿美元） | 82 | | | 净资产（亿美元） | 7.67 | | | 总资产（亿美元） | 11.39 | | | 每股净资产(美元 ) | 17.63 | | | 数据来源： Wind | ，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《增长潜力仍然很大》20240511 《业绩持续高速增长，盈利能力 提升》20240304 《保持高速成长，拓展学习赛 道》20231110 《 展 现 优 美 的 增 长 曲 线 》 20230814 MAU 首次破亿，付费用户增长空间巨大：公司的 MAU 在 2024Q2 首次破 亿，达到 1.0 ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 教育 ＃ investSuggestio n＃ ＃ investSuggestionChang 无评级e＃ ＃DUOL.O ＃dyCompany＃ DUOLINGO ＃title＃ MAU 首次破亿，业绩超预期增长 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 08 月 10 日 ＃市场ma数rk据etData＃ 日期 2024.08.09 收盘价（美元） 187.38 总股本（亿股） 0.44 总市值（亿美元） 82 净资产（亿美元） 7.67 总资产（亿美元） 11.39 每股净资产(美元) 17.63 数据来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《增长潜力仍然很大》20240511 《业绩持续高速增长，盈利能力 提升》20240304 《保持高速成长，拓展学习赛 道》20231110 《 展 现 优 美 的 增 长 曲 线 》 20230814 songjian@xyzq.com.cn SFC：BMV912 SAC：S0190518010002 我们的观点：公司继续取得超预期的季度业绩，公司不断提升产品的用户 体验，通过多 ...

This company integrated artificial intelligence into its core business, and it's already successfully monetizing the technology. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a red-hot theme in the stock market right now, and while there is a ton of hype, many companies are finding tangible and highly valuable use cases for the technology. Duolingo (DUOL 4.69%) is the world's largest digital language education platform, and its business was an incredible success before AI came along. However, the company is using it to c ...

Duolingo (NASDAQ:DUOL) is a company really taking off today. Despite the overall market being up considerably today, investors may look at the 14% surge in DUOL stock this afternoon and wonder what the company is doing to propel so much investor interest. Well, the online language learning company just released its second-quarter earnings to the cheer of investors. On the revenue front, Duolingo brought in $178.3 million, higher than the $177.1 million analysts had penciled in. But it was really the company ...

Core Insights - Duolingo's shares experienced a significant drop of 17.6% in July, attributed to a lack of news and unfavorable market conditions, despite the S&P 500 rising by 1% during the same period [1][2] - The company reported impressive second-quarter financial results on August 7, leading to a rebound in its stock price [3] Financial Performance - Duolingo's monthly active users surpassed 100 million, with revenue increasing by 41% year-over-year to $178 million, driven by a 52% growth in paid subscribers [4] - The company generated nearly $55 million in free cash flow for Q2, compared to $34 million in the same period last year [4] User Engagement and Growth Strategy - User growth and engagement are critical for Duolingo's revenue generation, with high engagement leading to either ad revenue from free users or subscription payments from engaged users [5] - The acquisition of animation studio Hobbes aims to enhance user experience through improved animation, making the platform more visually appealing [6] Future Outlook - Duolingo anticipates full-year revenue between $731.3 million and $738.3 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of approximately 38% to 39% [8] - The company is expected to remain profitable, which is notable for a high-growth company [8] Valuation Considerations - Duolingo's current trading valuation is slightly over 10 times its expected full-year sales, which may be considered pricey, but the strong business fundamentals provide a positive outlook for investors [9]

Duolingo stock costs 10% more today -- and is worth every penny. Shares of Duolingo (DUOL 12.91%), the AI-powered language learning company, jumped 9.5% through noon ET Thursday after crushing analyst forecasts for second-quarter earnings last night. Heading into the quarter, Wall Street forecast Duolingo would earn $0.32 per share on sales of $177.1 million. Instead, Duolingo reported a profit of $0.51 per share. Sales were $178.3 million. Duolingo's Q2 earnings The news was actually even better than that ...

Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call August 7, 2024 5:30 PM ET Company Participants Debbie Belevan - Head, Investor Relations Luis von Ahn - Co-Founder and CEO Matt Skaruppa - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Andrew Boone - JMP Securities Bryan Smilek - JPMorgan Ralph Schackart - William Blair Curt Nagle - BofA Alex Sklar - Raymond James Shweta Khajuria - Wolfe Research Ryan MacDonald - Needham Arvind Ramnani - Piper Sandler Aaron Kessler - Seaport Eric Sheridan ...