Core Insights - Duolingo operates the world's most popular digital language education platform and is leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the learning experience and unlock new revenue streams [1] - The company's stock reached a record high in May but has since declined by 26%, raising questions about its valuation and growth potential [2] User Growth and Engagement - Duolingo's mobile-first, gamified approach attracted 130.2 million monthly active users in Q1 2025, a 33% increase year-over-year [4] - The number of paying subscribers grew by 40% to a record 10.3 million during the same period, driven in part by AI enhancements [5] Subscription and AI Features - The Max subscription plan, launched in 2023, includes AI-powered features such as Roleplay, Explain My Answer, and Videocall, contributing significantly to new paying users [6][7] - The Max plan accounts for 7% of the total subscriber base, aligning with the company's goal of providing a digital learning experience comparable to human tutoring [7] Financial Performance - Duolingo reported $230.7 million in revenue for Q1 2025, reflecting a 38% year-over-year growth and exceeding the high end of its forecast [8] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to as much as $996 million, up from a previous estimate of $978.5 million [9] - GAAP net income for Q1 was $35.1 million, a 30% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA soared by 43% to $62.8 million [10] Valuation Metrics - Duolingo's stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 193.1, significantly higher than the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 24.1, indicating a high valuation [12] - The forward P/E ratio for 2026 is 48.8, suggesting a slightly more reasonable valuation based on future earnings estimates [13] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 22.9, a 40% premium compared to its average of 16.3 since going public in 2021 [15] Investment Outlook - While Duolingo's stock may not be ideal for short-term investors, its potential for long-term growth could make it a solid investment for those willing to hold for five years or more [17]

Group 1 - Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor, focusing on buying undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their profitability is expected to improve significantly over the next year [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes technology and the Great Energy Transition, including uranium, with a concentrated portfolio of approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months [1] - Michael has over 10 years of experience analyzing companies in tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2] Group 2 - The Investing Group Deep Value Returns, led by Michael, offers insights through its concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates on stock picks, and a weekly webinar for live advice [3] - The group provides "hand-holding" support for both new and experienced investors, fostering an active and kind community accessible via chat [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market," indicating an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - Oracle announced a $30 billion order and plans to expand data centers in the U.S., with multi-cloud database revenue growing at over 100% [4][7]. - CoreWeave received the first batch of NVIDIA GB300 servers, significantly enhancing AI processing capabilities and efficiency [8]. - Figma is preparing for a major IPO, projecting $749 million in revenue for 2024, with a focus on integrating AI into its design platform [9][13]. - The AI sector is experiencing a new technology cycle driven by increased computational power, model iteration, and accelerated commercialization [4]. - ByteDance's Doubao launched a new "In-Depth Research" feature, enhancing its AI capabilities for complex task processing [22][26]. Summary by Sections Oracle - Oracle's CEO stated a strong start to FY26, with multi-cloud database revenue growing over 100% and a significant contract with OpenAI expected to contribute over $30 billion annually starting FY28 [4][7]. CoreWeave - CoreWeave announced the receipt of NVIDIA's latest GB300 servers, which enhance AI model output efficiency by up to 50 times, marking a significant advancement in AI cloud services [8]. Figma - Figma aims for a $1.5 billion IPO, with 2024 revenue projected at $749 million, reflecting a 48% year-over-year growth. The platform is embedding AI to improve design efficiency [9][13]. AI Dynamics - The AI industry is witnessing a robust cycle characterized by high demand for computational power and rapid advancements in AI applications, with major companies like Oracle and CoreWeave leading the charge [4]. ByteDance - ByteDance's Doubao introduced the "In-Depth Research" feature, which allows users to process complex tasks and generate structured reports, indicating a shift towards deeper AI application capabilities [22][26].

Industry Overview - The technology services industry is mature, with demand for services in good shape, and revenues, income, and cash flows are expected to gradually return to pre-pandemic levels, enabling stable dividends for most players [1] - The global shift toward digitization is creating opportunities in markets such as 5G, blockchain, and AI, with companies adopting generative AI, machine learning, and data science to gain competitive advantages [4] - The business software industry is benefiting from strong demand for multi-cloud-enabled software solutions as companies transition from legacy platforms to modern cloud-based infrastructure [4] Company Highlights AppLovin Corp. (APP) - AppLovin is a software-based platform for mobile app developers, enhancing marketing and monetization of apps [6] - The introduction of AI-powered AXON 2.0 technology and strategic expansion in gaming studios have significantly boosted revenue growth [7] - AppLovin's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 16% and 84.8%, respectively, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improving by 0.1% in the last seven days [8] - The average short-term price target for AppLovin shares indicates a potential increase of 37% from the last closing price of $341.64, with a maximum upside of 90.3% [8] Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) - Duolingo operates as a mobile learning platform offering courses in 40 different languages and provides a digital language proficiency assessment exam [10] - The company utilizes AI applications to personalize and automate the learning process, with tools like Birdbrain analyzing real-time user performance [11] - Duolingo's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 33.5% and 54.3%, respectively, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improving by 2.1% over the last 60 days [12] - The average short-term price target for Duolingo shares indicates a potential increase of 24% from the last closing price of $391.86, with a maximum upside of 53.1% [12]

Core Insights - Duolingo has achieved a remarkable valuation with a P/E ratio of 200 and a market capitalization of $18.7 billion, raising questions about whether this is a capital bubble or a rational market choice [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Duolingo was founded in 2009, with its app launched in 2012 by Luis von Ahn, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, and his student Severin Hacker [3] - The company initially gained funding due to the founders' reputation rather than the online language education model itself, with significant backing from Google in later funding rounds [4][5] - The app's unique gamified learning approach has been a key factor in its user engagement and retention [7][9] Group 2: Business Model - Duolingo operates on a "free + ad + premium" model, offering free courses with ads and optional paid subscriptions for an ad-free experience and additional features [14][15] - The subscription products include Super Duolingo and Duolingo Max, with prices ranging from $12.99/month to $29.99/month for advanced features [15] - The company reported a significant increase in user engagement, with DAU at 46.6 million and MAU at 130.2 million, reflecting a 49% and 33% year-over-year growth, respectively [16] Group 3: Financial Performance - Duolingo's Q1 2025 financial results showed a net profit of $35.1 million, a 30% increase from the previous year, and an adjusted EBITDA of $62.8 million, up 43% [16][20] - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% in user growth and over 58% in subscription revenue from 2019 to 2024 [16] Group 4: Market Position and Growth Potential - The global language learning market is projected to be valued between $61.7 billion and $97.8 billion by 2024, indicating significant growth potential for Duolingo [27] - Duolingo's user acquisition strategy has been effective, with a low marketing expense ratio of 13%, leading to a snowball effect in user growth [23] Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - Despite its success, Duolingo faces challenges in providing comprehensive language learning resources, particularly for less common languages [29][30] - Competitors like Speak and Grammarly are leveraging AI technology to enhance their offerings, posing a threat to Duolingo's market share [32][33] - The company's reliance on a single app for growth may limit its long-term scalability unless it diversifies its offerings [21][24]

Core Viewpoint - Recent legal challenges for Apple Inc. regarding alleged monopolistic practices and new App Store fee policies may positively impact subscription service companies like Duolingo, Match Group, and Bumble by reducing app store fees, which are a significant cost of revenue [1][2]. Financial Outlook - A reduction in app store fees could enhance earnings for Duolingo, Match Group, and Bumble, as these fees currently account for 17% of Duolingo's cost of revenues and 20% for both Match Group and Bumble [2][3]. - A 500 basis-point shift in subscription revenue to off-app payments could increase Duolingo's EBITDA by 3.3%, Match's by 2.8%, and Bumble's by 3.0%. Additionally, a 100 basis-point reduction in app store fees could raise their EBITDA by 3.2%, 2.7%, and 3.5%, respectively [4]. Price Forecast Adjustments - Price forecasts have been raised for Bumble to $5.50 from $5.25 and for Match Group to $34 from $32, while Duolingo's price forecast remains at $450 due to higher sector valuation [5]. Revenue Impact - The anticipated fee reduction is expected to result in a 1-2% increase in U.S.-based revenues for these companies, while the impact on EU-based revenues is estimated to be smaller, leading to only a 0.5% EBITDA increase [6]. Company-Specific Insights - Bumble is projected to benefit the most from a potential drop in U.S. app fees, supported by recent legal developments that allow developers to direct users to off-app payment options [7]. - Bumble, Duolingo, and Match are already testing off-app payments, with expectations for updates during the second-quarter earnings in August. A 500 basis-point shift to off-app payments and a 100 basis-point cut in U.S. app fees could boost Bumble's total EBITDA by 1.7% [8]. - Duolingo, Match, and Bumble derive only about 20% of their subscription revenue from the EU, limiting their earnings upside from EU app fee reductions due to DMA compliance [9].

Core Insights - Vontier Corporation (VNT) and Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) are both currently rated with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive earnings outlooks for both companies [3] - Value investors utilize various metrics to identify undervalued stocks, including P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, and cash flow per share [4] Valuation Metrics - VNT has a forward P/E ratio of 12.25, significantly lower than DUOL's forward P/E of 138.78, suggesting VNT is more attractively priced [5] - The PEG ratio for VNT is 1.31, while DUOL's PEG ratio stands at 3.09, indicating VNT's expected earnings growth is more favorable [5] - VNT's P/B ratio is 5.01 compared to DUOL's P/B of 20.48, further supporting VNT's stronger valuation metrics [6] - Based on these valuation figures, VNT is rated with a Value grade of A, while DUOL has a Value grade of F, highlighting VNT as the superior value option [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **MU (Micron Technology)**: Earnings report expectations - **RDDT (Reddit)**: Advertising strategy and revenue potential - **NVDA (Nvidia)**: AI demand and market cap projections - **COIN (Coinbase)**: Market position and revenue forecasts - **MSFT (Microsoft)**: AI adoption and growth potential - **AMZN (Amazon)**: Delivery expansion and retail margins - **NOW (ServiceNow)**: AI-driven CRM opportunities - **DUOL (Duolingo)**: Growth in EdTech - **IOT (Samsara)**: Automation and asset monitoring demand - **TSLA (Tesla)**: Sales performance in Europe Core Points and Arguments Micron Technology (MU) - Earnings expectations for August quarter EPS are in the range of $2.20-$2.30 [1] Reddit (RDDT) - Positive initiation from Cleveland citing revenue upside driven by product traction and improving ROI [2] - RBC estimates potential revenue upside of over $25 million in Q2 if ad load expands, currently at ~15% [3][4] Nvidia (NVDA) - Loop Capital raised price target to $250, citing massive upside in AI infrastructure demand, projecting hyperscaler spending could reach ~$2 trillion by 2028 [5][6] - Nvidia's entry into cloud computing with DGX Cloud is seen as a potential disruptor to existing tech giants [7][8] Coinbase (COIN) - Bernstein raised price target to $510, calling Coinbase the "most misunderstood" crypto stock, highlighting its dominance in U.S. spot trading and upcoming regulatory tailwinds [9] - Citizens reiterated a $400 price target, emphasizing Coinbase's role as a partner for enterprises integrating blockchain [10][11] Microsoft (MSFT) - Wedbush raised price target to $600, citing rapid AI adoption and its transformative impact on Microsoft's cloud growth [13][14] - OpenAI's CEO discussed a positive partnership with Microsoft, indicating strong collaboration [15] Amazon (AMZN) - BofA reiterated a $248 price target, highlighting plans to expand delivery services to rural areas, which is expected to boost retail margins [16] ServiceNow (NOW) - DA Davidson initiated coverage with a $1,150 price target, emphasizing the company's strong position in AI-driven CRM [17] Duolingo (DUOL) - Argus initiated coverage with a $575 price target, noting impressive growth and expansion into new educational areas [24] Samsara (IOT) - Piper reiterated an Overweight rating with a $53 price target, citing strong demand for automation and asset monitoring [22][23] Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla's new car sales in Europe fell 27.9% in May, despite overall EV sales growth in the region [29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - KeyBanc's CIO survey indicates a slowdown in IT budget growth expectations, which could negatively impact software vendors [18][19] - H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage on CoreWeave with a Neutral rating, cautioning on near-term valuation despite strong infrastructure execution [21] - Goldman Sachs highlighted the potential disruption AI could bring to advertising economics, identifying significant market opportunities [25][26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the involved companies and industries.

Core Insights - Duolingo Inc's shares have decreased by 2.7% to $411.54, continuing a downward trend after reaching a record high of $544.93 on May 14 [1] - Despite the recent decline, Duolingo's stock is up 26.9% in 2025 and is showing a historically bullish signal [2] Stock Performance - The stock is currently within 0.75 of its 20-day average true range (ATR) and has spent over 80% of the last 10 days and two months above this level [3] - Historical data indicates that after similar signals in the past three years, Duolingo's stock was higher one month later 67% of the time, with an average gain of 15.7% [3] Technical Indicators - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) for Duolingo is at 13.2, indicating that the stock is in "oversold" territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce [4] - The company's 50-day put/call volume ratio is 1.83, which is higher than 98% of readings from the past year, indicating a high level of pessimism among options traders [4]

Group 1: SoundHound AI - SoundHound AI's share price has increased by 342% since the end of 2023, driven by rising demand for its AI-powered conversational voice technology [3] - The company's revenue more than doubled year-over-year in Q1, following the acquisition of Amelia, which expanded its technology into customer services across various industries [4] - The AI voice generator market is projected to grow from $3 billion in 2024 to over $20 billion by 2030, indicating significant market potential for SoundHound's technology [8] - SoundHound's current market cap is $3.76 billion, with a share price around $9.40, and it would need to reach $37.6 billion for a 10-fold return to investors within the next 10 years [9] - The company reported a non-GAAP loss of $22 million on $29 million of quarterly revenue, but its revenue streams from product royalties, service subscriptions, and ads are seen as potentially profitable [6] - SoundHound has a strong balance sheet with $246 million in cash and no debt, which supports its growth strategy [7] Group 2: Duolingo - Duolingo is the top-grossing mobile learning app, with its stock rising 241% since its IPO in 2021, benefiting from the growing online language learning market [11] - The company had 130 million monthly active users in Q1, a 33% year-over-year increase, and 46.6 million daily active users, up 49% year-over-year [12] - Duolingo generated $230 million in revenue last quarter, a 38% year-over-year increase, while also reporting a profit of $35 million [13] - The online language learning market is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 21% through 2030, reaching $44 billion, with AI enhancing personalization and user experience [14] - Duolingo's market cap is currently $21.8 billion, and for a 10-fold return to investors in 10 years, it needs to maintain annualized revenue growth of 25% [16] - The company's content expansion strategy, including courses in math and music, positions it for growth beyond language learning [15]