Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's US Internet 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Internet** sector, providing insights into market performance, macroeconomic factors, and company-specific forecasts for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **2025 Performance Recap**: - The internet sector outperformed the S&P 500 by 17% in 2025, with average performance across market caps showing significant variation: - Large Cap: +19% - Mid-Cap: +42% - Small Cap: +21% - Smaller Cap (<$2B): -16% [12][13] 2. **2026 Macro Outlook**: - J.P. Morgan economists estimate a **35% risk of recession** in 2026, with expectations of resilient global growth driven by fiscal stimulus and capital expenditure [19][23]. - Key economic indicators include: - GDP Growth: 1.8% in 2026 - Inflation: Expected to remain above 3% CPI - Unemployment: Projected to peak at 4.5% in Q1 2026 [21][19]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: - **Top Picks for 2026** include: - Alphabet (Overweight, $385 PT): Growth driven by AI and cloud services [46]. - Amazon (Overweight, $305 PT): Expected growth in AWS and retail segments [51]. - DoorDash (Overweight, $300 PT): Anticipated GOV growth of 18% CAGR from 2025-2028 [57]. - Spotify (Overweight, $805 PT): Projected revenue growth driven by premium subscriptions [66]. 4. **AI and Cloud Growth**: - AI is expected to significantly drive cloud growth, with Google Cloud projected to grow in the mid-40% range and AWS adding the highest estimated revenue in 2026 [101][102]. - The report highlights the importance of AI in enhancing operational efficiencies and driving revenue growth across various sectors [78]. 5. **Valuation Metrics**: - The S&P 500 is projected to have a price target of **$7,500** by the end of 2026, suggesting a 9% upside [26]. - Internet companies are trading at an average of **10.2x 2027E EV/EBITDA**, with expected revenue growth of approximately **13% CAGR** from 2025 to 2027 [40]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: - The report discusses the competitive landscape in the AI space, noting that leading model developers like Google and OpenAI are pushing the frontier, but competition remains intense [89][94]. - The potential for AI-driven advertising and e-commerce growth is highlighted, with expectations for significant market share shifts in the online ad market [112]. 2. **Company-Specific Catalysts**: - Alphabet's AI tools are expected to enhance productivity and revenue, while Amazon's AWS is set to double its capacity by 2027 [56][88]. - DoorDash is focusing on expanding its marketplace and improving unit economics, while Spotify is ramping up its free cash flow and operating margins [60][68]. 3. **Key Questions for 2026**: - The report raises critical questions regarding AI monetization, the impact of AI on cloud growth, and the potential for disruption in various sectors, including travel and e-commerce [76][124]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections for the US Internet sector as outlined in the J.P. Morgan report, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and investment opportunities for 2026.

Core Insights - Etsy has established itself as a niche e-commerce provider focusing on unique, vintage, and handcrafted items, differentiating itself from dominant players like Amazon [1] Company Performance - Etsy shares experienced a dramatic increase of 2,160% over five years before peaking, but have since declined by 66% as of December 9 [3] - In contrast, the S&P 500 has shown a total return of 99% over the same five-year period, highlighting Etsy's underperformance [4] - Key financial metrics indicate a market capitalization of $5 billion, with a gross margin of 72.24% and a current stock price of $53.49 [5] Recent Trends - Etsy's gross merchandise sales for Q3 totaled $2.4 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 2.4%, alongside a decrease in operating margin to 12.2% compared to 2021 [6] - The overall domestic e-commerce industry has seen steady growth, raising concerns about Etsy's struggles, which may be attributed to the discretionary nature of its offerings [7] Valuation Perspective - The stock is currently valued at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8, suggesting it may be reasonably priced, yet market sentiment appears pessimistic regarding its future prospects [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Agentic Commerce Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the evolution of commerce driven by AI agents, termed "Agentic Commerce," which is expected to transform payment and retail sectors significantly [2][24]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Historical Context**: The evolution of retail from department stores to eCommerce and now to AI-driven commerce is highlighted, indicating a significant shift in how consumers interact with products and services [2]. - **Current State of AI in Commerce**: While a growing number of consumers are using AI tools for product searches, the impact on actual commerce remains minimal, with AI chatbots contributing to only a small fraction of total web traffic [3][30]. - **Future of AI Agents**: The potential for AI agents to autonomously plan and execute tasks on behalf of consumers is discussed, which could lead to a more personalized shopping experience [4][5][44]. - **Impact on Payments**: The rise of AI agents is expected to change payment methods, with traditional card networks likely emerging as winners due to their established trust and governance frameworks [9][10][68]. - **Consumer Behavior**: The shift in consumer behavior towards AI-driven shopping experiences is anticipated to take time, with incremental changes being observed in the near term [7][16]. Important Data and Statistics - **Consumer Usage of AI**: Approximately 47% of consumers in the U.S. have used AI for shopping-related tasks, with the most common use cases being finding gift ideas (21%) and conducting product research (16%) [26][30]. - **Market Potential**: McKinsey estimates that orchestrated revenue from Agentic Commerce within B2C retail could reach $1 trillion by 2030 in the U.S., with a global potential of $3 to $5 trillion [28][29]. Risks and Challenges - **Trust and Governance**: The need for robust governance frameworks and trust in AI agents is emphasized, as these agents will handle sensitive transactions and consumer data [9][68]. - **Disintermediation Risks**: Concerns about disintermediation in eCommerce marketplaces are raised, particularly if consumers begin their shopping journeys on third-party AI platforms [16][60]. - **Fragmentation of Protocols**: The current landscape is characterized by fragmentation and experimentation with various protocols for agent communication and payments, which could complicate the adoption of Agentic Commerce [48][69]. Merchant Responses and Developments - **Cautious Adoption**: Merchants are approaching the integration of AI agents with caution, balancing the potential for increased traffic against risks related to brand recognition and data control [60]. - **Innovative Integrations**: Companies like Etsy and eBay are actively integrating AI capabilities to enhance consumer experiences, while Amazon is taking a more protective stance against external AI agents [61][66]. Conclusion - The transition to Agentic Commerce represents a significant paradigm shift in how consumers shop and how payments are processed, with implications for both traditional and new-age payment networks. The evolution of AI agents will require careful navigation of trust, governance, and consumer behavior dynamics as the industry adapts to these changes [46][70].

Core Insights - Etsy is a digital two-sided marketplace focusing on unique and handmade goods [1] - Josh Silverman, the current CEO of Etsy since 2017, will transition to Executive Chair at the end of the year, while Kruti Patel Goyal will take over as CEO in January [2] Company Overview - Etsy operates as a platform for unique and handmade products, catering to a niche market within the digital commerce space [1] - The leadership transition indicates a strategic shift, with Silverman moving to a more advisory role and Goyal stepping in to lead the company [2]

Summary of Etsy Conference Call - December 09, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Etsy (NasdaqGS:ETSY) - **Industry**: Digital Commerce, E-commerce Marketplace - **Focus**: Unique and handmade goods Key Points and Arguments Leadership Transition - Josh Silverman, CEO since 2017, will transition to Executive Chair at the end of the year, with Kruti Patel Goyal taking over as CEO in January 2026 [6][7] - The board unanimously believes Kruti is the right candidate for CEO, having demonstrated strong performance and leadership [6][7] Historical Performance and Growth - In 2017, Etsy had $2.5 billion in gross merchandise sales (GMS) and $200 million in revenue, operating at break-even [9] - Under Josh's leadership, Etsy's GMS grew to $10 billion, with revenue increasing significantly and achieving approximately $750 million in free cash flow last year [10] - The pandemic accelerated growth, but the company has faced challenges in maintaining that growth post-pandemic [12] Future Growth Strategies - Kruti emphasized the need to adapt to changing consumer expectations, focusing on a more engaging shopping experience rather than just efficient transactions [14][15] - Key priorities for growth include being present where shoppers discover products, ensuring relevance in inventory, fostering customer loyalty, and highlighting the human aspect of Etsy's marketplace [16][18] Technology and Personalization - Etsy is investing in machine learning and large language models (LLMs) to enhance search and recommendation systems, improving user engagement and conversion rates [19][20] - Personalized content in marketing channels has increased to 80%, leading to significant improvements in GMS [23] Agentic Shopping and AI Integration - Josh highlighted the potential of agentic shopping, which could enhance Etsy's visibility and drive incremental visits and commerce [24][25] - Etsy aims to leverage its unique inventory to differentiate itself from competitors in the agentic shopping landscape [32][33] Depop Acquisition and Market Position - Depop, a secondhand apparel marketplace, is experiencing rapid growth, with a 60% year-over-year increase in GMS [45] - Etsy is investing in marketing to increase awareness of Depop, viewing it as a potential significant growth driver [39] Conclusion - The leadership transition and strategic focus on enhancing user experience, leveraging technology, and expanding market presence are critical for Etsy's future growth [46]

Core Viewpoint - Etsy, Inc. is facing challenges within a struggling industry, but it remains a relatively better investment option compared to its peers, with a current valuation at 14 times this year's earnings estimates [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Etsy operates online marketplaces connecting buyers with independent sellers across various categories, including handmade goods and fashion resale [2]. - Despite recent execution issues, the stock is valued at $52 after a disappointing quarter, indicating a belief in its underlying value [2]. - The recommendation is to hold the stock, with a suggestion to buy more if it drops to previous lows, as the franchise is considered worth more than the current stock price [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The overall industry is not performing well, with Jim Cramer expressing skepticism about its future prospects [1]. - While Etsy is not thriving, it is noted for its profitability compared to competitors like ThredUp [1].

Core Insights - Etsy has over 92 million active buyers and 7.7 million active sellers across 234 countries, attracting many cross-border sellers [1] Group 1: Store Setup Costs - Listing fee: Sellers pay $0.20 for each product listed, which expires after four months, requiring renewal if unsold [4] - Store design fee: While opening a store is free, costs arise from designing logos, banners, or product photography, depending on seller choices [4] Group 2: Transaction Costs - Transaction fee: A 6.5% fee is charged on the total sale price, including shipping and gift wrapping [5] - Payment processing fee: Fees vary by country; for example, in the US, it is 3% + $0.25, while in China it is 6.5% + $0.30, and in France, it is 4% + €0.30 [5] - Currency conversion fee: A 2.5% fee applies for currency conversions [5] - Withdrawal fees: Domestic sellers withdrawing overseas funds to local banks incur fees, such as $35 per transaction via PayPal, or a 0.5% fee through third-party platforms like WindPayer [5] Group 3: Shipping and Packaging Costs - Shipping costs: Sellers offering free shipping must cover these costs, which depend on product size, weight, and destination [6] - Packaging materials cost: Costs vary based on the materials used, such as boxes, bubble wrap, or padded envelopes [6] Group 4: Marketing and Advertising - Etsy provides a paid advertising platform for sellers to promote their products, with costs based on the seller's budget. Sellers can also use social media platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and Pinterest for promotion [7] Group 5: Other Costs - Software and tools fee: Some sellers may invest in inventory management, accounting, or product photography optimization tools [10] - Taxes: Sales tax varies based on the locations of sellers and buyers [10] - Etsy Plus subscription fee: Good-standing sellers may opt for Etsy Plus, which costs $10 per month and offers advanced store customization, custom domain names, and additional listing features [10]

Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly impacting e-commerce, with AI-driven online sales on Black Friday reaching a record high of $11.8 billion, reflecting a 9.1% year-over-year increase [1] - Online traffic surged to over 1 trillion, marking an 805% year-over-year increase, aided by AI-powered chatbots that helped customers find the best prices despite tariff-related price hikes [2] - E-commerce sales for Black Friday in 2025 are projected to grow by 10.4% year over year, with estimates for this year's sales reaching $18 billion, a 3% increase from last year [2] E-commerce Stock Recommendations - Five e-commerce stocks are recommended for investment in 2026: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), Etsy Inc. (ETSY), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), and 1stdibs.Com Inc. (DIBS), all carrying favorable Zacks Ranks [3][8] Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Amazon is experiencing growth from its Prime and Amazon Web Services (AWS) segments, utilizing AI technologies such as the Claude chatbot and Trainium2 AI chips [6][9] - The company has invested $8 billion in Anthropic and plans to use 1 million custom Trainium2 chips for AI applications by 2025 [7] - Amazon's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 11.3% and 9.2%, respectively, with a 2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [11] Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) - Expedia is leveraging AI for personalized trip planning through tools like AI-powered search filters and itinerary builders, integrating OpenAI's ChatGPT into its app [12] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 6.3% and an earnings growth rate of 20.8% for next year, with a 7.9% improvement in earnings estimates recently [13] Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) - Booking Holdings is enhancing its travel services with AI-driven tools that improve user engagement and booking conversion rates [15] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 8.9% and an earnings growth rate of 15.8% for next year, with a slight improvement in earnings estimates [17] Etsy Inc. (ETSY) - Etsy is focusing on AI-driven personalization and advanced search ranking models to enhance user experience and drive sales [19] - The expected revenue growth rate for Etsy is 3.4%, with earnings growth projected to exceed 100% for next year [20] 1stdibs.Com Inc. (DIBS) - 1stdibs.Com connects sellers of luxury items with buyers, utilizing AI to monitor its impact on the design market [21] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 2.8% and an earnings growth rate of 32.5% for next year, with a significant improvement in earnings estimates [22]

Core Insights - The adoption of AI in holiday shopping is increasing, with 54% of consumers planning to use AI tools for the upcoming season, although this is a slight decrease from previous expectations [3] - A significant portion of consumers (46%) prefer a personal touch in their shopping experience, indicating a desire for human connection in gifting [4] - Younger demographics, particularly Gen Z and millennials, are more inclined to use AI compared to older generations like Gen X and baby boomers [6][7] Consumer Behavior - The primary use cases for AI among consumers include seeking product reviews, price comparisons, tracking deals, and generating gift ideas [3] - Trust issues and lack of knowledge about AI tools are significant barriers for those who choose not to use AI [4] - The desire for personalization in gifting is a key reason why some consumers are hesitant to fully embrace AI [4][7] Demographic Trends - Younger consumers show a higher affinity for adopting AI technologies, while older generations exhibit more reluctance [6][7] - The trend of preferring human interaction over AI is observed even among younger users, highlighting a complex relationship with technology [7]

Core Insights - The rise of AI-generated content is significantly impacting food bloggers, leading to a decline in web traffic and revenue as consumers increasingly trust AI-generated recipes over traditional ones [2][3][10] Impact on Traffic and Revenue - Food bloggers report drastic declines in traffic, with some experiencing drops of up to 80% in revenue due to AI-generated content taking precedence in search results [10][24] - Specific examples include a 40% year-over-year decline in traffic for a turkey recipe and a 30% drop in Google traffic for a German recipe blog [2][18] Quality and Accuracy Concerns - AI-generated recipes often contain inaccuracies, leading to potential cooking disasters for consumers, as seen in examples where incorrect cooking times and methods are provided [2][6] - Bloggers express concerns that AI cannot replicate the real-life testing of recipes, which undermines the trustworthiness of the content [5][6] Content Visibility and Competition - AI-generated content is flooding platforms like Pinterest and Facebook, pushing down the visibility of vetted recipes from human creators [4][18] - Many bloggers have noted that their original recipes are being copied and altered by AI, leading to confusion among consumers and further diminishing their traffic [20][23] Platform Responses - Companies like Google and Pinterest acknowledge the changes but emphasize that their AI tools are meant to supplement human creativity rather than replace it [8][25] - Despite these claims, food bloggers feel that the algorithms favor AI-generated content, making it difficult for original creators to gain visibility [24][26] Long-term Implications - The shift towards AI-generated content raises existential concerns for food bloggers about the future of their businesses and the authenticity of culinary knowledge shared online [26] - There is a fear that if content creators abandon their platforms due to declining traffic, the quality of available recipes will deteriorate further, leading to a cycle where AI-generated content becomes the primary source of cooking information [10][26]