1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the dot - plot shows two more expected rate cuts this year, with the US dollar index having room to decline. The copper supply shock caused by the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine will exacerbate the tight global copper supply - demand structure. The demand for copper in industries such as power, data centers, and new energy vehicles remains strong. However, the approaching holiday has led to some funds leaving the market for risk - avoidance, and the spill - over effect on other non - ferrous metals from the copper price increase is not sustainable [3][9][10]. - The strength of the US dollar index suppresses the rebound height of the non - ferrous metal sector. Before the holiday, it is recommended to be cautious in trading and use options for protection. Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety [5][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Advice - **Macro Logic**: The Fed has cut interest rates by 25bp, and future rate - cut decisions will depend on economic data. The US - EU trade agreement has been implemented, and the eurozone's September PMI data shows a mixed situation. China's LPR remains unchanged, and the central bank's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose. Before the holiday, market funds are leaving for risk - avoidance, and the support from pre - holiday stocking for non - ferrous metals is weakening [9]. - **Single - side Strategies for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The Grasberg mine accident will reduce copper production, and the global copper supply - demand will be more imbalanced. The Fed's rate - cut cycle is favorable for copper prices in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the short - term upper pressure range at 83000 - 84000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 80000 - 81000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses the rebound. Before the holiday, it is recommended to watch more and trade less, with the upper pressure range at 21300 - 21700 and the lower support range at 20200 - 20500. One can buy out - of - the - money options for protection [5]. - **Alumina**: The spot price is falling, and the operating capacity is increasing. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions, with the upper pressure range at 3500 - 3700 and the lower support range at 2700 - 2900. One can buy out - of - the - money call options for protection [5]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: Due to the tight supply of scrap and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with the upper pressure range at 20800 - 21000 and the lower support range at 20000 - 20300. One can buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - **Tin**: The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern. It is recommended to close long positions and watch more before the holiday, with the upper pressure range at 260000 - 280000. One can buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's rate - cut and economic data affect the US dollar index. The zinc price is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - environment. The zinc price is oscillating weakly, with the upper pressure at 22300 - 22400 and the lower support at 21500 - 21600. It is recommended to trade based on volatility [6]. - **Lead**: The US dollar is rebounding, and there are news of lead - recycling enterprises' production suspension. The lead price is fluctuating. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high prices and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [6]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Fed's rate - cut and economic data affect the US dollar index. The nickel price is affected by supply - demand and macro - factors. The nickel price is oscillating, with the upper pressure at 125000 - 128000 yuan and the lower support at 118000 - 120000 yuan. The stainless - steel price is also oscillating, with the upper pressure at 13000 - 13200 and the lower support at 12700 - 12800. It is recommended to reduce positions for risk - avoidance before the holiday [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - **Weekly Futures Price Changes**: Copper closed at 82470 yuan/ton with a 3.28% increase; aluminum at 20745 yuan/ton with a 0.36% decrease; tin at 274070 yuan/ton with a 1.97% increase; lead at 17110 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease; nickel at 121380 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease; stainless steel at 12840 yuan/ton with a 0.16% decrease; and cast aluminum alloy at 20325 yuan/ton with a 0.29% decrease [14]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of copper, zinc, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals has different degrees of changes. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 82670 yuan/ton with a 0.16% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 21970 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price is 20780 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - Multiple charts are provided to track key data of different non - ferrous metal varieties, including inventory, processing fees, production, and price trends [22][23][26]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - **Recommended Arbitrage Opportunities** - **Copper 2511 - 2512 Contract Reverse Arbitrage**: The supply - side shock will have a more significant impact on the far - month contracts [14]. - **Alumina 2502 - 2509 Contract Reverse Arbitrage**: The near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [14]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - **Option Strategies for Each Variety** - **Copper**: Sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Tin**: Sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Zinc**: Buy volatility [6]. - **Lead**: Use a straddle strategy (16400 - 17400) [6]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Buy out - of - the - money call options [6].

September 26, 2025 10:53 AM GMT metal&ROCK | Europe Copper Disrupted: Upside Risks Rising A supportive macro backdrop and an increasingly challenged supply side bring upside risks to copper. YTD disruptions are now almost at 5%, with 3 months of the year still remaining. However, demand destruction remains a risk, with signs of price sensitivity above $10k/t, particularly from China. Key Takeaways Source: Woodmac, Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies ...

印尼自由港公司初步评估表明，此次事故可能会导致2025年第四季度和2026年生产严重延误，但随着修 复工作完成、运营逐步重启，2027年运营率有望恢复到事故前水平。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 9月8日，印尼格拉斯伯格铜矿发生泥石流事故，该矿位于印尼巴布亚省，由自由港麦克莫兰公司旗下印 尼自由港公司运营，是全球第二大铜矿及主要金矿。 声明称，事故发生在格拉斯伯格铜矿的PB1C生产区块，但也导致了其他生产区块所需的基础设施受 损。 自由港麦克莫兰公司26日发布声明表示，受多种因素影响，印尼自由港公司（PTFI）2026年的产量可 能比事故发生前的预测低35%，此前其2026年产量的预测是接近17亿磅铜和160万盎司黄金。 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - The global copper price has significantly increased due to the suspension of production at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, with LME copper closing at $10,320 per ton on September 24, marking a 3.46% rise [4][5] - On September 25, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze market reached 82,500 yuan per ton, up 3.06% from the previous day, an increase of 2,450 yuan [4][5] - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, has a copper reserve of 13.99 million tons and has lowered its third-quarter sales guidance for copper and gold by 4% and 6%, respectively [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the impact of the Grasberg incident is primarily psychological for the market, with minimal direct effects on domestic copper concentrate supply [3][6] - The incident is expected to lead to a slight reduction in global metal supply, with estimates of a decrease of about 5,000 tons in 2025 and 22,000 tons in 2026, which is a small fraction of the expected consumption [6][7] - Despite the recent surge, some market participants believe that copper prices may correct downward as demand weakens after the initial excitement fades [7] Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Domestic copper companies, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining, have shown strong stock performance, with Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rising by 9.90% to 13.87 yuan [7][8] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top copper producers globally [8][9] - The company anticipates a stable market as U.S. import tariffs on copper products take effect, which may alleviate supply tensions outside the U.S. [9]

印尼矿业部长周五表示，政府与自由港印尼公司达成协议，暂停该矿运营，以优先搜寻被困工人，证实 了自由港麦克莫兰公司此前发布的消息。 9月26日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价周五下跌，本周稍早全球第二大铜矿发生事故后出现 的供应担忧推动价格大涨，影响了需求。 伦敦时间9月26日17:00(北京时间9月27日00:00)，三个月期铜收盘下跌78.00美元，或0.76%，报每吨 10,181.50美元。 | | 9月26日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10181.50 | +-78.00 | -0.76% | | 三个月期铝 | 2655. 50 | +-3.00 | -0. 11% | | 三个月期锌 | 2888. 50 | +-38.00 | +-1. 30% | | 三个月期铅 | 2002. 50 | +-13.00 | -0.65% | | 三个月期镍 | 15175.00 | +-104.00 | +-0.68% | | 三个月期锡 | 34503.00 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent copper prices have shown a significant upward trend, driven by supply concerns following the suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, owned by Freeport-McMoRan, which has raised fears of tightening copper supply [1][2][3] Supply Side Analysis - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has announced a production halt due to an accident, leading to a downward revision of copper sales forecasts for Q4 2023 and the entirety of 2026, with expected production reductions of approximately 35% for copper and gold [2][3] - The mine's production was previously stable at over 700,000 tons annually, with a target of 770,000 tons for 2026, meaning a loss of around 260,000 tons of copper supply due to the incident [2][3] - The supply constraints are exacerbated by a lack of new mining capacity and ongoing production losses, leading to a negative processing fee environment and a significant imbalance between copper ore supply and refined copper availability [3][4] Demand Side Analysis - Despite slow growth in traditional consumption sectors, emerging industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI are expected to drive future copper demand [5][6] - The current negative processing fee situation may lead to a more challenging environment for smelting operations in 2026, further impacting supply dynamics [5][6] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs and a potential 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could support copper prices [4][6] - Analysts predict that copper prices may continue to rise, with forecasts suggesting that LME copper could range between $9,800 and $11,000 per ton in Q4 2025, while Shanghai copper futures may range from 80,000 to 84,000 yuan per ton [6] - The Grasberg mine's shutdown is expected to widen the supply gap for copper concentrate, significantly affecting the copper market from Q4 2025 to 2026 [6]

Industry Overview - Copper prices are rising due to supply issues, particularly from a production stoppage at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the largest copper producers globally [1] - Demand for copper is high, especially from China, which accounts for approximately 60% of global demand over the past year [2] - The demand for copper is expected to increase significantly as infrastructure and clean energy projects expand, particularly in electric vehicles and AI data centers [6] Market Activity - Copper trading activity has increased by around 50% compared to normal expectations [4] - Recent price fluctuations include a 7% bounce following news from Freeport regarding its Grasberg operations, although prices remain about 20% below pre-tariff highs [5] - Investors have shown strong interest in copper assets, with sector ETFs attracting $2.3 billion in net inflows in 2025, nearly 50% higher than in 2024 [3] Company Performance - Freeport-McMoRan has faced challenges due to its Grasberg operations but remains a significant player in the copper market [9] - Southern Copper Corp. has shown strong operational and financial performance, with year-to-date performance at +33.01% and high EBITDA margins of 56% [11][12] - Antofagasta PLC reported a year-to-date performance of +65.22% and is well-positioned for growth through projects initiated last year [13][14] Investment Opportunities - The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is recommended for investors seeking exposure to the copper mining industry without the risks associated with individual stocks [15] - Investing in copper is seen as a way to capture growth tied to electrification and AI expansion, contrasting with gold, which is often viewed as a hedge against economic downturns [6][7]

Image: Freeport-McMoRan Indonesia’s government has reached an agreement with Freeport Indonesia to halt operations at the Grasberg mine to prioritize the search for workers trapped after a recent accident, Reuters reported, citing the country’s mining minister.Two workers have died and five remain missing following a large mudflow earlier this month at the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine.Production at Freeport Indonesia has not resumed since the incident, with the suspension impacting both output and r ...

成文时间：2025年09月25日星期四 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 铜： 美国矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan其印尼子公司Grasberg矿山发 生泥石流事故，已造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人下落不明。目 前这座全球第二大的铜矿因事故已暂停生产，公司已启动不可抗力 条款。Freeport预计，该铜矿最早要 ...

印尼自由港公司初步评估表明，此次事故可能会导致2025年第四季度和2026年生产严重延误，但随着修 复工作完成、运营逐步重启，2027年运营率有望恢复到事故前水平。 （文章来源：新华财经） 声明称，事故发生在格拉斯伯格铜矿的PB1C生产区块，但也导致了其他生产区块所需的基础设施受 损。 新华财经雅加达9月26日电（记者冯钰林）自由港麦克莫兰公司26日发布声明表示，受多种因素影响， 印尼自由港公司（PTFI）2026年的产量可能比事故发生前的预测低35%，此前其2026年产量的预测是接 近17亿磅铜和160万盎司黄金。 9月8日，印尼格拉斯伯格铜矿发生泥石流事故，该矿位于印尼巴布亚省，由自由港麦克莫兰公司旗下印 尼自由港公司运营，是全球第二大铜矿及主要金矿。 ...