Production and Revenue - Freeport-McMoRan's copper production increased to 214 million pounds in 2024, up from 144 million pounds in 2023, reflecting successful implementation of new technologies and data analytics [19]. - In 2024, Freeport-McMoRan's consolidated revenues were primarily from copper (74%), gold (17%), and molybdenum (7%) sales [34]. - Copper production from the Morenci mine, Cerro Verde mine, and Grasberg minerals district accounted for 77% of the company's total copper production in 2024 [26]. - PT-FI sold 56% of its copper production in concentrate and 44% as cathode during 2024 [47]. - The company ranked third among the top 10 copper producers, accounting for approximately 6% of estimated total worldwide mined copper production in 2024 [82]. - PT-FI's production from the Grasberg minerals district was 1.8 billion pounds of copper and 1.9 million ounces of gold in 2024, an increase from 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 2.0 million ounces of gold in 2023 [191]. Environmental and Regulatory Compliance - As of December 31, 2024, the company recorded $2.0 billion for environmental obligations and $3.7 billion for asset retirement obligations, with environmental capital expenditures totaling $0.6 billion in 2024 [56]. - The company expects to incur approximately $0.6 billion in environmental costs in 2025, reflecting ongoing compliance with environmental laws and regulations [56]. - PT-FI's Tailings Management Roadmap was approved for the next phase extending from 2025 to 2030, focusing on continuous improvement in tailings management practices [72]. - The company is subject to extensive U.S. and international regulations regarding worker health and safety, with new regulations potentially increasing mining costs [77]. Production Capacity and Infrastructure - The Morenci operation has a milling design capacity of 132,000 metric tons of ore per day, with a total EW tank house capacity of approximately 900 million pounds of copper per year [94]. - The Sierrita operation has a milling design capacity of 100,000 metric tons of ore per day, producing copper and molybdenum concentrate [118]. - The Miami operation has a design capacity of 200 million pounds of copper per year, although it is currently producing from stockpiles [126]. - The Chino operation includes a concentrator with a milling design capacity of 36,000 metric tons of ore per day and a 150 million pound-per-year SX/EW plant [134]. - Cerro Verde operates a 100,000-metric-ton-per-day ROM leach system with a production capacity of approximately 200 million pounds of copper per year [164]. Future Projects and Investments - The potential expansion project at Bagdad aims to increase copper production by 200 to 250 million pounds per year at an estimated capital cost of approximately $3.5 billion [104]. - The company has initiated pre-feasibility studies in the Lone Star district of Safford to explore significant expansion opportunities, with completion expected in 2026 [110]. - PT-FI plans to invest approximately $1 billion in a new gas-fired combined cycle facility over the next three years to reduce Scope 1 GHG emissions [193]. - Kucing Liar is expected to produce over 7 billion pounds of copper and 6 million ounces of gold between 2029 and 2041, with capital investments estimated at $4 billion over the next 7 to 8 years [204]. Production Trends and Changes - Morenci mine produced 0.7 billion pounds of copper and 3 million pounds of molybdenum in 2024, down from 0.8 billion pounds of copper and 3 million pounds of molybdenum in 2023 [95]. - Sierrita's copper production totaled 165 million pounds in 2024, a decrease from 185 million pounds in 2023 and 184 million pounds in 2022 [119]. - Miami's copper production was 9 million pounds in 2024, down from 12 million pounds in 2023 and 11 million pounds in 2022 [127]. - Chino's copper production reached 133 million pounds in 2024, compared to 141 million pounds in 2023 and 130 million pounds in 2022 [135]. - Tyrone's copper production was 43 million pounds in 2024, a decline from 51 million pounds in 2023 and 59 million pounds in 2022 [140]. Technological Advancements - The company is focused on enhancing productivity and managing costs to support long-term profitable growth and value creation [17]. - The company is pursuing the conversion of Bagdad's haul truck fleet to become fully autonomous, with testing expected to begin in Q2 2025 [101]. - The company has committed to maintaining the Copper Mark and/or Molybdenum Mark at all operating sites globally, demonstrating responsible production performance [83]. Financial Transactions - In September 2024, the company purchased 5.3 million shares of Cerro Verde common stock for $210 million, increasing its ownership interest to 55.08% [160].

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan's stock has declined by almost 22% despite a rise in copper prices, suggesting the sell-off may be overdone and the stock could represent a good value opportunity [1][10] Group 1: Reasons for Stock Decline - The decline in Freeport's stock can be attributed to three main factors, including potential tariff effects, operational challenges, and production downgrades [2] - Management indicated that U.S.-produced copper sales could benefit from any premium due to tariffs, while copper from Indonesia primarily goes to China [3] - A fire at a new smelter in Indonesia and repairs to mills have contributed to lowered production expectations for 2025 [4] Group 2: Long-term Growth Initiatives - Freeport's leaching initiative aims to recover 800 million pounds per annum from previously considered waste material, which could significantly expand profit margins [5] - The leaching cost is currently below $1 per pound, compared to a net cash cost of $1.56 per pound in the fourth quarter [6] - Cost reduction measures, including the use of autonomous trucks and new technology, are expected to enhance profit margins and offset lower-grade mining [7] Group 3: Future Expansion Opportunities - Freeport has several potential expansion projects, including a 200-250 million pound opportunity in Bagdad, Arizona, and a 300-400 million pound expansion in Lone Star, Arizona, expected to begin in the 2030s [8] - The expectation for an extension to operate in Indonesia beyond 2041 remains unchanged, although it is still a point of observation [9] Group 4: Valuation Perspective - The market has unduly punished Freeport for short-term issues, which do not alter the long-term outlook, and the company continues to make progress on its leaching initiative [10] - If copper prices remain around $4.45, Freeport could generate nearly $13 billion in EBITDA in 2026/2027, leading to an attractive EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.4 times [11]

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is one of the largest copper producers globally with a valuation of $50 billion, driven by significant gold and copper production [2] - The company continues to focus on maximizing returns through a fact-based research strategy, which includes extensive analysis of financial documents and market reports [2] Group 2 - The Value Portfolio aims to build retirement portfolios by identifying investments based on thorough research and analysis [2] - The Retirement Forum offers actionable ideas and macroeconomic outlooks to help maximize capital and income for retirement [1]

Core Insights - Several analysts have revised their price forecasts and ratings for Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. following the fourth-quarter FY24 results, which showed revenue of $5.72 billion, below the consensus of $5.99 billion, while adjusted EPS was $0.31, exceeding the consensus of $0.22 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The quarterly adjusted EBITDA was reported at $2.11 billion, meeting expectations due to strong realized pricing and cost efficiencies, despite weaker copper and molybdenum sales and higher delivery costs [2] - Management anticipates first-quarter sales to be impacted due to paused shipments and maintenance, leading to a quarter-over-quarter decline in copper and gold sales of -14% and -36% respectively [3] - Earnings are projected to improve in the second quarter as deferred sales from Indonesia begin to recover [4] Group 2: Future Guidance - For 2025, Freeport-McMoRan expects sales volumes of 4.0 billion pounds of copper, 1.6 million ounces of gold, and 88 million pounds of molybdenum [1] - The company has cut its FY25 copper guidance, indicating that some lost sales may not be recouped [3] - If copper qualifies for 45X tax credits, it could lead to potential cost savings of $500 million per year, which may positively impact consensus estimates [4] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Forecasts - JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson maintained a price forecast of $48 with a Neutral rating, while Raymond James analyst Brian MacArthur adjusted the price forecast from $53 to $49 with an Outperform rating [2][4] - BMO Capital Markets reduced its price forecast from $54 to $50 while keeping an Outperform rating, whereas Jefferies downgraded the company from Buy to Hold and lowered the price forecast from $48 to $40 [5] Group 4: Market Performance - FCX shares were down 1.79% at $37.81 during the last check on Friday [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company reported its fourth quarter and full year 2024 operating and financial results earlier in the morning [2] - The press release and supplemental schedules with financial data are available on the company's website [2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - No specific data or metrics related to individual business lines were mentioned in the provided content [2][3] Market Data and Key Metrics - No specific data or metrics related to individual markets were mentioned in the provided content [2][3] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - No specific details on company strategy or industry competition were mentioned in the provided content [2][3] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company's comments on the call include forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially [3] - The press release and slides include cautionary language and risk factors described in SEC filings [3] Other Important Information - The conference call is being broadcast live on the Internet, and a replay will be available on the company's website later today [2][3] - The call includes non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements [3] Q&A Session Summary - No Q&A session details were provided in the content [2][3]

Core Insights - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) reported a net income of $274 million or 19 cents per share for Q4 2024, a decrease of approximately 29.3% from $388 million or 27 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were 31 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents [1] - Revenues fell nearly 3.1% year over year to $5,720 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,921.9 million due to lower copper sales [2] Operational Highlights - Copper production decreased by nearly 4.9% year over year to 1,041 million pounds, missing the estimate of 1,088 million pounds [3] - Consolidated sales of copper dropped around 11.1% year over year to 992 million pounds, surpassing the estimate of 980 million pounds [3] - Gold sales were 350,000 ounces, down approximately 36.2% year over year, but higher than the estimate of 340,000 ounces [4] - Molybdenum sales totaled 18 million pounds, down around 18.2% year over year, lagging behind the estimate of 20 million pounds [4] Financial Position - Operating cash flows amounted to approximately $1.4 billion for Q4 and $7.2 billion for the full year 2024 [6] - Capital expenditures for Q4 reached $1.2 billion, including $0.6 billion for significant mining projects and $0.2 billion for a new smelter and precious metals refinery in PT Freeport Indonesia [6] Guidance - FCX expects consolidated operational cash flows of around $6.2 billion for 2025, based on current sales volume and cost forecasts, assuming average prices of $4.00 per pound of copper, $2,700 per ounce of gold, and $20.00 per pound of molybdenum [7] - Projected capital expenditures for 2025 are around $5 billion, with $1.1 billion allocated for underground mine development in the Grasberg minerals district and expansion projects in North America, and $1.7 billion for discretionary growth projects [8] - Expected consolidated sales for 2025 include approximately 4 billion pounds of copper, 1.6 million ounces of gold, and 88 million pounds of molybdenum, with specific first-quarter estimates of 850 million pounds of copper, 225,000 ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum [9] Price Performance - Freeport's shares have declined by 1.6% over the past year, contrasting with an 11.7% rise in the industry [10]

Core Insights - Freeport-McMoRan reported revenue of $5.72 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, a decrease of 3.1% year-over-year, and an EPS of $0.31, up from $0.27 in the same quarter last year, indicating a positive EPS surprise of 29.17% compared to the consensus estimate [1] Financial Performance - The reported revenue was 3.41% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.92 billion [1] - Average realized price per pound of copper was $4.21, exceeding the three-analyst average estimate of $4.06 [4] - Gold sales in North America were 7 Koz, significantly higher than the estimated 4.2 Koz [4] - Gold sales in Indonesia reached 343 Koz, slightly above the estimated 338.45 Koz [4] - Copper sales from Indonesia's Grasberg mine were 376 million pounds, below the estimated 392.99 million pounds [4] - Total copper sales in South America were 298 million pounds, slightly above the estimated 290.17 million pounds [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from Indonesia were $2.25 billion, a year-over-year decline of 17.9%, and below the estimated $2.28 billion [4] - Molybdenum revenues were $177 million, representing a 12.7% increase year-over-year, but below the estimated $260.66 million [4] - Revenues from South America copper mines were $1.21 billion, reflecting an 8.5% year-over-year increase, and slightly below the estimated $1.22 billion [4] - North America copper mines generated $1.61 billion, a 15.2% increase year-over-year, exceeding the estimated $1.35 billion [4] - Rod & Refining revenues were $1.47 billion, close to the estimated $1.48 billion, with an 8.8% year-over-year increase [4] - Atlantic Copper Smelting & Refining revenues were $679 million, below the estimated $765.75 million, with a 12.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Corporate, other & eliminations reported -$1.66 billion, worse than the estimated -$1.44 billion, but showing a 14.5% year-over-year improvement [4] Stock Performance - Freeport-McMoRan shares returned -0.3% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by 2.7% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Freeport-McMoRan reported quarterly earnings of $0.31 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.24 per share, and up from $0.27 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 29.17% [1] - The company posted revenues of $5.72 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.41%, and down from $5.91 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Freeport-McMoRan has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Freeport-McMoRan shares have increased by approximately 2.7% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 3.5% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.44 on revenues of $6.18 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.81 on revenues of $26.93 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Mining - Non Ferrous industry, to which Freeport-McMoRan belongs, is currently ranked in the top 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors or through tools like the Zacks Rank [5][6]

Earnings and Stock Performance - Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) is set to announce quarterly results on Jan 23, with analysts expecting earnings of 25 cents per share [1] - Weaker copper prices in Q4 are likely to impact the company's performance [1] - FCX's stock has shown mixed post-earnings results, with an average 2.7% move after earnings announcements in the past two years [2] - Options traders are pricing in a 6% next-day swing following the upcoming earnings report [2] - FCX's stock is down 1.8% at $39.59, potentially ending a six-day win streak [3] - The stock has risen since hitting a 10-month low of $37.19 on Jan 3, with year-over-year and year-to-date gains of approximately 4% [3] Options and Volatility Analysis - Options trading appears to be a favorable strategy for FCX, as the Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 34% indicates low volatility expectations, ranking in the low 20th percentile of its annual range [4] - FCX's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 81 out of 100 suggests the stock has consistently exceeded low volatility expectations over the past year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on January 23, with anticipated challenges due to weaker copper prices and sales volumes impacting performance [1][2]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX's fourth-quarter consolidated revenues is $6,003 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of approximately 1.7% [5]. Factors Impacting Performance - Weaker copper prices, driven by reduced demand in China due to the property crisis, are likely to have negatively affected FCX's performance in the fourth quarter [6]. - Copper prices experienced volatility, with a nearly 12% decline in the fourth quarter, closing at around $4 per pound. The estimated average realized price for copper for FCX is $4.06 per pound, reflecting a sequential decline of 5.6% [7]. - Lower sales volumes are also expected to impact performance, with third-quarter copper sales volumes down roughly 7% year-over-year. FCX anticipates consolidated copper sales of 980 million pounds for the fourth quarter, down from 1,035 million pounds in the prior quarter [8]. Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model does not indicate a conclusive earnings beat for FCX this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -0.38%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently set at 25 cents [9][10].