铜价刚刚经历了有史以来最惨烈的一天。但美国经济疲软再加上大宗商品历史价格走势，这意味着铜价 或许还有进一步下跌的空间。 "商品在高点之后出现剧烈回调是非常普遍的现象。"McGlone指出，"铜在突破5美元之后，为何不能回 到3美元？近二十年来，这个金属的价格大多围绕3美元震荡。" Britannia Global Markets金属主管Neil Welsh表示："这一转变有望为铜市场重新注入一定的确定性，让 市场重新聚焦于基本面，而不是此前以新闻标题为导向的短期交易行为。" 不过，即便市场回归基本面，铜的基本面也显得岌岌可危。尽管铜价近期因电力需求增长而受到提振， 铜仍是最具经济敏感性的商品之一，其走势与中美经济增长前景高度挂钩。 本周早些时候，美联储选择维持利率不变。但在周五就业数据远逊预期后，市场对于9月降息的预期急 剧升温。 从历史价格走势来看，铜价目前的飙升也引发了一些不安。彭博高级商品策略师Mike McGlone指出， 美铜近期走势颇似2008年金融危机前夕的原油。当时原油价格因经济错位快速升至147美元的历史高 位，随后却因房市泡沫破裂跌至32美元。如今油价仍徘徊在68美元左右，仅为当年高点的一 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on certain imported copper products, effective August 1, which includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [1][3] - The announcement led to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper prices falling over 18% to $4.60 per pound, and major copper producers Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper saw declines of approximately 10% and 6% respectively [1][3] - The new regulations are expected to disrupt global copper trade flows, as refined copper (electrolytic copper) is excluded from the tariff list, which may lead to a re-export of large quantities of copper previously shipped to the U.S. [4][5] Group 2 - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, following iron and aluminum, with about half of the copper used in the U.S. being imported, primarily from Chile [5]

I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the ...

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock has been trading in a range of $30-$50 for most of the past 4 years, with occasional fluctuations above and below this range [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a well-diversified portfolio, suggesting a core foundation of a high-quality low-cost S&P 500 fund [1] - For investors willing to accept short-term risks, an overweight position in the technology sector is recommended, as it is believed to be in the early stages of a long-term secular bull market [1] Group 2 - The article suggests considering large oil and gas companies for dividend income, highlighting their strong dividend growth potential [1] - A top-down capital allocation approach is recommended, tailored to individual investor situations, including factors such as age, risk tolerance, and financial goals [1]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 自由港 2025Q2 铜产量环比增加 10.9%至 43.68 万 吨，归属于普通股股东的净利润环比增长 119.3% 至 7.72 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 2025Q2 生产经营情况 1）铜 2025Q2 铜产量为 9.63 亿磅（43.68 万吨），同比减少 5.2%， 环比增加 10.9%。低于 2024Q2 主要反映了印度尼西亚和南美 洲较低的矿石品位和运营率，但部分被美国较高的研磨率和矿 石品位所抵消。 2025Q2 铜销量为 10.16 亿磅（46.08 万吨），同比增加 9.1%， 环比增加 16.5%。高于 2024Q2 主要反映了装运的时间安排。 2025Q2 铜的平均实现价格为 4.54 美元/磅，同比上涨 1.3%， 环比上涨 2.3%。 FCX 铜矿 2025Q2 合并平均单位净现金成本（扣除副产品收益 抵免）为每磅铜 1.13 美元，同比减少 34.7%，环比减少 45.4%。低于 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan reported strong second-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations, but shares experienced a slight decline post-reporting, indicating market volatility despite positive financial results [3][4]. Financial Performance - Top-line revenue reached $7.6 billion, surpassing expectations of $6.8 billion and reflecting a 15% increase from $6.6 billion in the same quarter last year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were 56 cents, exceeding the expected 46 cents by 20% and showing a year-over-year increase of over 20% [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $2.1 billion, with operating cash flow of $1.8 billion [9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Freeport-McMoRan anticipates supportive fundamentals for copper pricing due to low inventories and rising demand, suggesting a bullish outlook for the company and the sector [5][6]. - The company is positioned to increase copper production, with ASIC below $2 while copper spot prices are at $5.88, providing significant leverage for future earnings [6]. - The stock price forecast for the next 12 months is $51.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.33% [8]. Capital Management - The company reduced its net debt to $1.5 billion, maintaining a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30% [10]. - Freeport-McMoRan returned capital to shareholders through a secure dividend with a payout ratio of around 24%, paying 15 cents per share quarterly, and repurchased $5.5 billion of shares in the quarter [10]. Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - FCX stock has increased over 18% in 2025, forming an ascending triangle pattern before breaking higher in early July [11]. - The stock has faced resistance around $54 and has dropped below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), with a need for a breakout above this level to confirm continued institutional buying [13].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-25 货源呈现区域性紧缺 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-24，沪铜主力合约开于 79880元/吨，收于 79890元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.38%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 79,520元/吨，收于 79,290 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.69%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，国内电解铜现货市场升水继续回落。SMM1#电解铜报价79,690-79,900元/吨，当月合约升水90-200元 /吨，均价145元/吨，较前日下跌35元。沪铜主力早盘自79,760元/吨震荡下行至79,600-79,700元/吨区间，Contango 结构维持在C100-C80元/吨。市场呈现三个特征：一是冶炼厂到货缓解上海地区现货紧张，主流平水铜成交价由160 元/吨回落至100-120元/吨；二是好铜溢价同步走低至180元/吨附近；三是湿法铜因缅甸货源紧张维持平水成交。考 虑到今日是周五，下游备货需求可能回升，预计现货升水跌幅将有所收窄。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，欧盟通过总额930亿欧元的对美关税反制计划，若未达成协议，措施将于8月7日生 ...

What does this environment look like now ahead of the August 1st 50% tariff increase on copper. >> Well, the copper market is very strong in terms of uh demand drivers. You've been pointing this out on your show with all of the investments that are being made in technology and AI infrastructure and requiring more and more energy infrastructure.This all requires more copper and copper is becoming more uh intensive uses in the in the global economy. So at Freeport, we're really well positioned to um to to ben ...

Financial Performance - Freeport-McMoRan expects an additional $17 billion (1700 million) in US copper sales per year [1] Market Trends - Domestic prices of copper are showing a premium [1]

Key Takeaways FCX posted Q2 net income of $772M and adjusted EPS of 54 cents, topping the consensus estimate. Revenue rose 14.5% year over year to $7.58B, aided by stronger copper and gold prices. Copper production fell 7.1%, but sales rose 9.1% on shipment timing, while gold sales jumped 44.6%.Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) recorded net income of $772 million or 53 cents per share for second-quarter 2025, up around 25.3% from $616 million or 42 cents in the year-ago quarter.Barring one-time items, adjusted ...