沪铜产业日报 2025/9/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 82,710.00 | +2750.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,367.50 | +31.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 20.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 238,523.00 | +66079.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -16,618.00 | -3174.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 144,975.00 | -400.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 105,814.00 | +11760.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 11,775.00 | -100.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 27,419.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 82, ...

CONCLUDED Topics Memberships Stock Market News From Sept. 25, 2025: S&P 500 Drops for a Third Session Last Updated: 14 hours ago Copper Climbs as Freeport Mine Accident Worries Market By Giulia Petroni, Dow Jones Newswires Copper prices extended gains in early trading, after surging nearly 4% in the previous session following news that Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Futures on the London Metal Exchange were up 1.3% to $10,455.50 a metric t ...

Demand）为2，758.6万吨，即今年预测供需平衡差（Balance）为26.7万吨，但料全球2026年精炼铜总产量预测为2，806.2万吨、2026年精炼铜总需求量为2，848.2万吨，即明年预测供 责任编辑：史丽君 Teniente矿山事故，以及秘鲁示威等因素，将进一步加剧短期矿山供应风险。该行原先预测2026年全球矿山供应增长约2%（50万吨），并已计入约5%的供应干扰；如今因应Grasberg指引调 过去2至3年，精炼铜供应增长持续超出矿山供应成长，导致铜精矿和废铜市场趋紧，但同时推迟了精炼市场的紧张状况，也因此抑制了铜价长期突破每吨1万美元的涨势。该行认为Grasberg矿 2026年铜精炼供应预测下调，将扩大精炼市场的供给缺口。虽然与关税相关的宏观不确定性及市场波动持续，中国铜需求仍展现韧性，电网与储能需求强劲，弥补了太阳能与家电需求在下半年 该行亦列出全球2025年精炼铜总产量（Total Refined Production）预测为2，785.3万吨、2025年精炼铜总需求量（Refined 瑞银发表报告表示，FCX因今年9月8日印尼Grasberg矿区（全球第二大铜矿）地下出现矿难（大量 ...

瑞银研报指，Grasberg矿场停产将加剧2026年全球铜市场预期的供给缺口，该行重申对铜价乐观展望。 瑞银预计2025年全球精炼铜供需平衡差为26.7万吨，2026年供需平衡差为负42.1万吨。(格隆汇) 麦克莫兰铜金公司(FCX.US)昨日因旗下印尼矿场停产消息大跌近17%，今日盘前反弹超2%，报38.44美 元。 消息面上，麦克莫兰铜金公司日前确认，其位于印尼的Grasberg矿场(全球第二大铜矿)9月8日发生的泥 石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人仍下落不明。公司称，该矿场的营运或在2026年上半年分 阶段重启并逐步恢复，预计明年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。受此消息刺激，LME铜价昨日涨超 3%，升至逾15个月高位。 ...

对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，短期供需走弱，预计延续紧平衡状态。展望后市，基于矿山扰动量级较 大，短期价格预计由转为偏强，重心上移，后续需持续关注其恢复进展。 沪铜夜盘高开高走，日内强势状态延续，期价最高触及82980元，刷新了今年3月底以来高点，收盘大涨 3.4%，国际铜大涨3.58%。自由港宣布印尼Grasberg矿遭遇不可抗力，并下调铜销量预测，矿端的脆弱 性继续凸显，原料端紧张的矛盾有所激化，铜价强势突破。 9月24日，Freeport就先前报告的印尼Grasberg Block Cave矿泥浆溃涌事故提供最新信息。表示由于该事 件及对运营的影响，印尼自由港正根据其合同条款通知商业对手方不可抗力情况，还下调了第三季度的 综合销售指引，其中铜下降了4%。另外，初步评估来看，按照当前的分段重启计划该矿有可能在2027 年恢复到事件前的运营率，印尼自由港2026年铜产量目标比事件发生前下调35%。这一消息令市场对于 本就紧张的全球铜矿供应担忧加重，引发了内外铜价的大涨。 （文华综合） ...

铜矿石的短缺感正推高行情。电线、铜加工制品不可或缺的铜，其国际价格正在急剧上涨。国际基准价 9月24日一度上涨4%，2024年5月创下的历史最高价（每吨1万1104.5美元）已在望。此前一直受到关注 的矿石短缺问题，因全球最大级别铜矿发生事故而进一步引发市场关注。 作为铜国际基准价的伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期货，24日一度达到每吨1万364美元，创约1年4 个月来的新高。按收盘价计算的涨幅也是约5个半月以来最大。 铜矿石(资料图) "在短期内格拉斯伯格矿山无法恢复运作的情况下，铜价在矿石短缺背景下将继续保持坚挺走势"…… 铜矿石短缺忧虑加剧。中国铜冶炼产能扩张，矿石供应跟不上需求的声音不少。2023年，因环保破坏等 抗议，巴拿马的科布雷·巴拿马（Cobre Panamá）铜矿也被迫停产。市场风险顾问公司（Market Risk Advisory）联合代表新村直弘表示："在短期内格拉斯伯格矿山无法恢复运作的情况下，铜价在矿石短 缺背景下将继续保持坚挺走势"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 美国矿业巨头自由港 ...

Freeport-McMoRan’s declaration of force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia — where two employees are dead and five missing after a massive mud flow — couldn’t have come at a worse time for the global copper market https://t.co/9dLGBuCd8v ...

Grasberg Mine Shutdown Incentives Copper Price Huge Rise 铜矿大量级减产支撑铜价突破上行 Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 | 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3088415 > 投资咨询号Consulting No.: Z0016667 | 郑非凡 Zheng FeiFan | 沈照明 Shen Zhaoming | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013632 | 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi | | Event 事件点评 On the evening of 24th Sep , copper prices rebounded significantly, with LME copper breaking through US$10,000 per ton again. Freeport McMo ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern in the short - to - medium term, supported by a weak US dollar and supply disruptions, while the weak terminal demand will limit the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding in copper, aluminum, and tin are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Grasberg copper mine has a large production cut, and copper prices are operating strongly. The reduction in Grasberg's production intensifies the supply shortage, and with the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching peak demand season, if copper inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [7][8]. - **Alumina**: Affected by anti - involution sentiment, alumina prices have a slight rebound. The fundamentals show an over - supply situation, but the limited decline in ore prices restricts the downside. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the demand quality, and aluminum prices are oscillating. After the interest rate cut, the supply is increasing with new capacity, and the demand is expected to improve, but the inventory accumulation continues. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may rise in the medium term [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support remains, and the market is oscillating. The cost reduction space is limited, the supply and demand are marginally improving, and short - term price oscillation is expected. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of supply - demand surplus is still strong, and zinc prices are weak. Macro factors support the non - ferrous sector, but the supply is increasing and the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16][17]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead is decreasing, and lead prices are oscillating strongly. With the approaching of the National Day, downstream enterprises are stocking up, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [18][20]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 230,000 tons, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. Short - term wide - range oscillation is expected [21][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and stainless steel prices are oscillating. The prices of nickel and chromium are stable, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season and the inventory change [26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are oscillating. The supply is tight, but the terminal demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [27][28]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific monitoring content in the given text

此次供应损失已超出高盛对全球供应中断的常规承受范围，导致该机构将2025年全球矿山产量增速预测从0.8%下调至0.2%，2026年增速预测从2.2%降至 1.9%。 智通财经APP获悉，全球第二大铜矿印尼格拉斯伯格铜矿因9月8日泥流事故导致生产中断，高盛集团周四下调2025及2026年全球铜矿供应预期。此次事故引 发严重泥流，工人被困地下，运营商麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.US)已宣布不可抗力。 高盛估算，本次中断将造成铜矿供应总计损失52.5万吨，具体将2025年下半年全球矿山供应预测下调16万吨，2026年全球矿山供应预测下调20万吨。格拉斯 伯格铜矿2025年产量预计减少25万至26万吨，2026年进一步下降27万吨。 高盛表示，麦克莫兰铜金透露，受事故影响，该矿2025年第四季度产量将处于极低水平，未受波及区域约占年产能30%-40%，预计本季度中期可恢复生产; 其余部分则计划于2026年某个时点重启开采。 高盛同时重申对铜价长期看涨立场，预计2027年将达到10,750美元/吨，依据包括矿井深度增加、矿石品位下降、开采难度提升等结构性挑战，以及今年卡 莫阿-卡库拉和埃尔特尼恩特矿场等其他中断事件的影响。 ...