Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has a significant impact on global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Event Review and Background - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, causing 2 deaths and 5 missing, and the mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - In 2024, the daily output of copper concentrate at the Grasberg mine was 208,365 tons, with the GBC mine accounting for 64% (about 133,800 tons), the DMLZ mine accounting for 32% (about 64,900 tons), and the Big Gossan mine accounting for 4% (about 8,000 tons) [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company. The Indonesian subsidiary PT Freeport Indonesia holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the rest is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [2][3] 2. Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - The impact on Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales is not significant. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to July, but it is still estimated to be 433,592 tons due to inventory [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart in mid - fourth quarter of 2025 (November). The GBC mine will start phased restart and capacity increase in the first half of 2026 [5] - Freeport Indonesia's copper sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be negligible, estimated at 20,184 metric tons [5] - The GBC mine's PB2 and PB3 production blocks will restart and increase production in the first half of 2026, PB1S of PB1C will start in the second half of 2026, and the rest of PB1C will restart in 2027 [5] - In the phased restart scenario, the estimated copper production in 2026 is 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3. Market Outlook - After Freeport announced force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and long - lasting [7]

Group 1 - A landslide at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has severely impacted the global copper market, with an immediate loss of approximately 800,000 tons of wet mud flooding the mine, resulting in two fatalities and five missing workers [2] - Freeport-McMoRan has declared force majeure on supply contracts, leading to a 4% spike in COMEX copper prices to $4.825 per pound, while competitors like Glencore and Boliden saw their stock prices rise [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates a potential market loss of at least 500,000 tons of copper over the next 12-15 months, with the possibility of the shortfall expanding to 2 million tons if recovery efforts are delayed [2] Group 2 - The political protests in Peru have led to the suspension of operations at the Constancia mine, further straining an already tight supply chain for copper [3] - The demand for copper in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and power grids is intensifying, with any shortfall of 100,000 tons likely to trigger uncontrollable price increases [3] Group 3 - Freeport has lowered its Q3 sales guidance for copper and gold by 4% and 6% respectively, and has outlined a phased resumption plan, with the earliest restart of unaffected areas expected in Q4 2025 [4] - The unprecedented landslide has exposed vulnerabilities in the global copper and gold supply chain, indicating that a sudden loss of 3% of production can significantly slow down the green transition [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has had a significant impact on the global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1) Event Review and Background Statement - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, resulting in two deaths and five missing. The mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has three underground mining areas in operation. In 2024, the daily production of copper concentrate was 208,365 tons, with the GBC area accounting for 64% [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, USA [2] - Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary, PT Freeport Indonesia, holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the remaining equity is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [3] 2) Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mining area stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales were not significantly affected. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to the July estimate, but copper concentrate inventory can temporarily make up for it [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart operations in mid - Q4 2025, while the phased restart and capacity increase of the GBC mine will begin in the first half of 2026 [5] - The company believes that copper sales in Q4 2025 will be negligible, at 44.5 million pounds (20,184 metric tons) [5] - The GBC mining area will restart and increase production in phases. It will not return to the pre - incident estimated level until 2027 [5] - In the scenario of phased restart and capacity increase, Freeport Indonesia estimates that copper production in 2026 will be 65% of 1.7 billion pounds, i.e., 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3) Market Outlook - Affected by the announcement of force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine, the copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly last night. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and will not disappear quickly [7]

近日，美国矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan印尼子公司Grasberg矿山发生致命泥石流事故，导致两名工人死亡。作为应对，公司暂停了该矿区的生产活动，并启 动了不可抗力条款。这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性为"黑天鹅"事件，引发了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 持续影响全球铜供应链 9月8日，Grasberg GBC矿区中的一个区块发生大规模湿性矿料涌出事故，Grasberg矿区停产。9月24日，Grasberg发布进展公告，9月8日发生的泥石流事故已 造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人仍下落不明。 根据Freeport预计，最早要到2027年才能恢复事故前的生产水平，2026年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。该矿山占公司已探明储量的50%和2029年前预计 产量的约70%。长期停产将对全球铜供应链造成持续冲击。 公开资料显示，Freeport McMoRan Inc.（自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿公司）是一家在全球矿业领域占据重要地位的国际矿业公司。其在北美、南美、印度尼西亚 等地从事金、钼等矿产资源开发。北美地区有7座露天开采铜矿和2座钼矿，如亚利桑那州的Morenci铜矿；南美运营秘鲁的塞罗贝尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. miner has declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a fatal mudslide accident, leading to an extension of price gains in the market [1] Group 1 - The declaration of force majeure indicates that the company is unable to fulfill its contractual obligations due to unforeseen circumstances [1] - The Grasberg mine is a significant source of supply, and disruptions here can impact global commodity prices [1] - The fatal mudslide accident raises concerns about operational safety and potential regulatory scrutiny for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent disaster at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine has triggered significant supply concerns in the copper market, leading to a sharp increase in copper prices and a reevaluation of market dynamics [2][4][5] Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 8, a mudslide at the Grasberg mine resulted in the loss of two workers and left five missing, causing substantial damage to infrastructure [2] - The Grasberg mine contributes 3.2% of global copper supply and 70% of Freeport's gold production, making its operational halt critical [2] - Following the incident, copper prices surged by 4% to $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell by 8% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Traders reacted instinctively to the supply disruption, with significant price movements observed across the market [4] - Goldman Sachs characterized the event as a "black swan," predicting a potential copper supply loss of 500,000 tons over the next 12-15 months, which could escalate to 2 million tons if recovery is delayed [4] - The current inventory structure is problematic, with 60% of global visible inventory locked in North America due to tariffs, limiting alternative sourcing options for Asian buyers [4] Group 3: Broader Supply Chain Implications - Other mines, such as Peru's Constancia and Panama's Cobre Panama, are also facing operational challenges, contributing to a tightening copper market [5] - Citigroup and Bank of America have raised their 2025 copper price forecasts to $5.2 per pound, an 18% increase from earlier predictions [5] - Freeport has revised its production guidance for 2026 down by 35%, indicating a prolonged recovery timeline that may extend to 2027 for full capacity restoration [5] Group 4: Impact on Industries - The copper supply shortage poses a significant challenge for manufacturers focused on global energy transition, as electric vehicles and wind farms require substantial copper [5] - If the supply gap persists for two years, the electric vehicle sector alone could consume an additional 300,000 tons of refined copper, equivalent to 40% of global tradable inventory [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The capital markets are beginning to reassess the gap between green demand and brown supply, with significant inflows into copper mining ETFs and rising credit default swap rates for Freeport [6] - Analysts highlight that this operational disruption is the most severe for Freeport in 30 years, emphasizing the tangible risks posed by ESG factors and community conflicts [6] - The incident has exposed vulnerabilities in the global metal supply chain, raising concerns about potential systemic risks in the market [7]

Market Overview - A total of 41 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 19 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 68% [1] - The three major indices showed divergence, with the ChiNext Index rebounding over 2% to reach a new three-year high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Huasoft Technology achieved a five-day limit up streak, while Lianmei Holdings and Bluefeng Biochemical both recorded a four-day limit up streak [1][3] - The highest limit up stock, Huasoft Technology, saw a 10.03% increase, driven by its focus on photoresists [12] - The gaming, AI applications, and controllable nuclear fusion sectors led the gains, while the port shipping, precious metals, and oil and gas sectors faced declines [1][6] Sector Analysis - The AI infrastructure investment by Alibaba, amounting to 380 billion yuan, is expected to drive a trillion-scale AI ecosystem [5] - The storage system bidding scale reached a historical high of 17.7 GW/45.7 GWh in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 237.1% [9] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with companies like Longjiang Storage becoming a new unicorn in the sector [7][16] Key Stocks and Trends - Ningde Times and Sunshine Power both reached historical highs, reflecting a focus on major growth stocks in the market [6] - The copper market saw a spike due to a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, leading to a 3% increase in copper futures [8][30] - The gaming sector continues to show strong performance, with the National Press and Publication Administration issuing over 150 game licenses in a single month [6] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a trend favoring large-cap stocks in popular sectors, despite the risk of a downturn for underperforming small-cap stocks [10] - The semiconductor supply chain's heat is likely to spread to lower-tier stocks, as the market remains focused on high-performing segments [7][30]

Group 1 - Copper prices have shown signs of strength recently, breaking through the 80,000 mark, but the sustainability of this rise is questioned due to high prices suppressing demand [1][6] - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second-largest copper mine globally, has faced production disruptions due to a natural disaster, leading to a significant downward revision in copper sales forecasts by Freeport [2][3] - The ongoing supply tightness in the copper market is exacerbated by previous disruptions in other major mines, highlighting the vulnerability of copper supply chains [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic copper smelting production is expected to decline due to tight raw material supplies and falling profits from by-products, indicating a shift in the production landscape [4][5] - Despite an increase in COMEX copper inventories, overall global copper stockpiles remain low, with limited accumulation in non-US regions, suggesting a tight supply environment [5][6] - The recent easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the tightening supply situation have created a favorable environment for copper prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short term [6][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices soared, with both LME copper and SHFE copper rising over 3%. The share price of US mining giant Freeport - McMoRan tumbled. Today, copper prices maintained a strong trend, and SHFE copper's open interest increased significantly. Due to a mudslide at its Indonesian subsidiary's Grasberg mine, the world's second - largest copper mine, production has been suspended. Freeport expects the mine to return to pre - accident production levels by 2027 at the earliest, and copper and gold production in 2026 is projected to drop by 35%. In the short term, LME copper broke through the annual high, and SHFE copper neared it, showing strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices rose following the sharp increase in copper prices. Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, and open interest decreased. At the macro level, the upward breakthrough of copper prices drove up the non - ferrous sector. At the industrial level, with the peak season and pre - holiday stocking demand, electrolytic aluminum social inventories declined on Thursday. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [6]. - **Nickel**: Last night, nickel prices rose due to the sharp increase in copper prices. Today, nickel prices maintained a strong trend, and open interest increased. At the macro level, the non - ferrous market recovered. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements still suppresses nickel prices. In the short term, as the non - ferrous sector as a whole rises, nickel prices are rising with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the September high [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: During the morning trading session, SHFE copper rose by over 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot market's trading sentiment was weak. The export window opening may promote smelters' export plans, reducing holders' willingness to sell. Downstream copper consumers had few new orders and weak pre - holiday stocking. Since the mudslide at the Grasberg mine on September 8, it has been shut down for nearly two weeks. The company has activated force majeure clauses. Indonesia Freeport's copper production in 2026 may decline by 35% compared to previous estimates, and this incident may cause a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the future [9]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts related to copper are presented, including basis, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, and others, which reflect the price and inventory trends of copper [11][13][18]. - **Aluminum**: Charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory, and alumina inventory are provided, showing the price and inventory conditions of aluminum [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, and domestic warehouse receipt inventory are included, presenting the price and inventory trends of nickel [35][36][42].

（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇9月25日｜铜价在亚盘时段下跌，回吐了前一交易日夜间的大幅涨幅。此前，矿业公司Freeport McMoran宣布，对其位于印尼的格拉斯伯格(Grasberg)矿山的合同供应启动不可抗力，推动LME铜期货 隔夜一度升至一年多来的新高。澳新银行分析师在一份报告中表示，这一事件重新引发了市场对供应的 担忧。该矿山占全球铜供应量的3.2%，并占该公司铜总产量的70%以上。预计意外的供应中断将影响全 球铜总产量的6%以上。 ...