每经AI快讯，周二，贵金属板块强势拉升，南方铜业(SCCO.US)涨超7%，麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.US)、 First Majestic Silver(AG.US)涨超5%，泛美白银涨(PAAS.US)涨超4%，纽曼矿业(NEM.US)涨超3%。消息 面上，黄金白银强势反弹，现货黄金大涨超5%，站上4900美元;现货白银大涨超12%，报88.76美元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

瑞银全球研究部分析师乔妮·特维斯近日发布的最新报告指出，尽管黄金短期内面临价格承压的风险， 但从长期来看，贵金属市场仍有良好的前景，值得投资者保持关注。对于黄金的长期前景，特维斯则持 更加乐观的态度。她认为，全球金融体系的不确定性和对未来经济走势的担忧将继续推动黄金需求增 长。尤其是在美联储政策变动和国际政治风险不断加剧的情况下，黄金作为避险资产的优势将更为显 著。因此，尽管短期内面临一定风险，但从长期来看，黄金价格仍具有较大的上行空间。 智通财经APP获悉，周二，贵金属板块强势拉升，南方铜业(SCCO.US)涨超7%，麦克莫兰铜金 (FCX.US)、First Majestic Silver(AG.US)涨超5%，泛美白银涨(PAAS.US)涨超4%，纽曼矿业(NEM.US)涨 超3%。消息面上，黄金白银强势反弹，现货黄金大涨超5%，站上4900美元;现货白银大涨超12%，报 88.76美元。 ...

瑞银全球研究部分析师乔妮·特维斯近日发布的最新报告指出，尽管黄金短期内面临价格承压的风险， 但从长期来看，贵金属市场仍有良好的前景，值得投资者保持关注。对于黄金的长期前景，特维斯则持 更加乐观的态度。她认为，全球金融体系的不确定性和对未来经济走势的担忧将继续推动黄金需求增 长。尤其是在美联储政策变动和国际政治风险不断加剧的情况下，黄金作为避险资产的优势将更为显 著。因此，尽管短期内面临一定风险，但从长期来看，黄金价格仍具有较大的上行空间。 周二，贵金属板块强势拉升，南方铜业(SCCO.US)涨超7%，麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.US)、First Majestic Silver(AG.US)涨超5%，泛美白银涨(PAAS.US)涨超4%，纽曼矿业(NEM.US)涨超3%。消息面上，黄金 白银强势反弹，现货黄金大涨超5%，站上4900美元;现货白银大涨超12%，报88.76美元。 ...

Billionaire mining executive Robert Friedland addressed the USC Marshall Energy Business Summit back in September to outline the severe global copper supply crisis. ...

Core Insights - Freeport-McMoRan reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations, with adjusted EPS of $0.47, surpassing analyst predictions of $0.28 to $0.29 per share [2][8] - Revenue for the quarter was approximately $5.63 billion, slightly down from the previous year but above consensus estimates, driven by higher realized commodity prices, with copper averaging $5.33 per pound and gold at $4,078 per ounce [2][5] Operational Performance - Copper production declined over 30% year-over-year due to a temporary halt at the Grasberg Block Cave mine, one of the largest copper mines globally [5] - Despite production challenges, the company exceeded sales volume forecasts in other areas and maintained cash costs under control, generating strong operational cash flow and an adjusted EBITDA of just over $2 billion for the quarter [5] Stock Performance - The stock price movements around the earnings announcement were mixed, as much of the positive news was already reflected in the stock price, with concerns about production scheduling dampening enthusiasm [6] - Recently, FCX stock has shown resilience, moving towards recent highs due to optimism surrounding the phased restart of Grasberg and favorable commodity pricing dynamics [6] Future Outlook - Management plans a phased restart of Grasberg operations in Q2 2026, with a potential return to full production by mid-2026, which is expected to significantly enhance production levels and earnings capacity [7] - For 2026, the company anticipates slightly lower copper sales and reduced gold production compared to 2025, but expects strong growth into 2027-2028 as major projects commence and output recovers [7] - Freeport reaffirmed its capital allocation priorities, focusing on prudent spending for growth initiatives while maintaining a robust balance sheet [7]

Group 1: Company Analysis - ConocoPhillips is focusing on increasing its production capacity and has plans to invest significantly in new projects to enhance its operational efficiency [1] - Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc reported a strong quarterly performance, driven by higher copper prices and increased production levels [1] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is expanding its mining operations and has announced new exploration projects aimed at increasing its gold reserves [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The mining industry is experiencing a resurgence due to rising commodity prices, particularly in copper and gold, which are expected to drive profitability for major players [1] - There is a growing emphasis on sustainable mining practices within the industry, as companies seek to reduce their environmental impact while maintaining production levels [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with analysts predicting continued growth in the mining sector as demand for metals increases globally [1]

划重点： 1）过去二十年，互联网重构了世界，但也让投资者落入"比特吞噬原子"的陷阱。长期以来，有色金属被固化为"传统行业"。但在 2026 年，工业 金属已不再单纯是随波逐流的周期股，而是 AI 物理底座的"优先受益标的"。 2）我们正处于能源介质大迁徙的奇点：铜作为算力血管面临品位通缩；铝作为"固态电力"享受充分溢价；锡在半导体封装的微缩中化身沉默税 收；镍则在高镍电池回归中重获估值主权。供需两侧的"完美风暴"已然成型，十年资本支出断层带来的产量滞后，正让存量矿产资源迸发出更大 价值。 3）2026 年，投资有色金属的胜负手不再是博取波段价差，而是锁定稀缺资源。麦克莫兰（FCX）凭借极致成本锚点对标早期能源巨头，美国铝 业（AA）则充分收割能源套利。在美元信用波动的背景下，重仓物理世界、拥抱有色金属，不仅是资产对冲的必选，更是持有 AI 变革的入场 券。 在过去二十年的叙事里，大多数投资者沉浸在"比特"吞噬"原子"的幻觉中，笃信软件定义一切，算法足以重构世界。 然而站在 2026 年的时点，现实让更多投资者重新认识到：AI 的尽头不是代码，而是电力；电力的尽头不只是能源，更是铜、铝、锡、镍等有色金属。 当科 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals, particularly silver and gold, have reached all-time highs in early 2026, indicating a strong market sentiment among "gold bugs" [1] - The S&P 500 Materials Sector SPDR (XLB) is not reflecting the same bullish sentiment, suggesting a divergence between precious metals and industrial materials [2][4] - XLB includes major companies in the industrial sector, such as Linde PLC, Newmont Corp, and Freeport-McMoRan, but is struggling to keep pace with the S&P 500 Index despite higher metal prices [4] Group 2 - The current market situation indicates a cooling industrial demand for materials, as chemical companies and construction material providers face margin pressures from rising energy costs and slowing manufacturing data [5] - Historically, a scenario where precious metals rise while industrial materials lag signals a speculative rally rather than one based on economic fundamentals [6] - XLB is currently near its 200-day moving average and unable to break resistance levels, suggesting potential exhaustion in the rally of gold and silver [7] Group 3 - The high Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) level and stretched price nature of XLB indicate caution for investors, although a rally in energy stocks could mitigate some of the potential downturn in precious metals [8]

本文共4160字， 阅读需约14分钟 想进群看深度投研？现在就行动！ 点赞＋推荐＋分享到朋友圈，截图发给 Fafa（微信：rockflowfafa），马上开通 RockFlow 社群资格。 额外福利：年度 AI 报告合集，先到先得。 在过去二十年的叙事里，大多数投资者沉浸在"比特"吞噬"原子"的幻觉中，笃信软件定义一切，算法足以重构世界。 划重点 ① 过去二十年，互联网重构了世界，但也让投资者落入"比特吞噬原子"的陷阱。长期以来，有 色金属被固化为"传统行业"。但在 2026 年，工业金属已不再单纯是随波逐流的周期股，而是 AI 物理底座的"优先受益标的"。 ② 我们正处于能源介质大迁徙的奇点：铜作为算力血管面临品位通缩；铝作为"固态电力"享受 充分溢价；锡在半导体封装的微缩中化身沉默税收；镍则在高镍电池回归中重获估值主权。供 需两侧的"完美风暴"已然成型，十年资本支出断层带来的产量滞后，正让存量矿产资源迸发出 更大价值。 ③ 2026 年，投资有色金属的胜负手不再是博取波段价差，而是锁定稀缺资源。麦克莫兰 （FCX）凭借极致成本锚点对标早期能源巨头，美国铝业（AA）则充分收割能源套利。在美元 信用波动的背景 ...

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is a leading U.S.-based mining company with a market cap of $90.3 billion, primarily engaged in the exploration and production of various metals, including copper and gold, across multiple regions [1] Group 1: Company Performance - FCX shares have significantly outperformed the broader market, surging 71.5% over the past 52 weeks compared to a 16.1% gain in the S&P 500 Index [2] - Year-to-date, FCX shares have increased by 23.8%, while the S&P 500 has only risen by 1.9% [2] - The company's stock has also outpaced the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLB) return of 12.3% over the same period [3] Group 2: Financial Results and Outlook - In Q4 2025, FCX reported an adjusted EPS of $0.47 and revenue of $5.63 billion, although shares fell by 2.9% following the announcement [4] - The company has reduced its 2026 copper production outlook by 50 million pounds to 3.4 billion pounds, citing a weaker-than-expected outlook for 2028 due to a fatal accident at the Grasberg mine, which saw copper output drop by 38.5% year-over-year [4] - Analysts project a 27.7% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS for the fiscal year ending December 2026, reaching $2.26 [5] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Among 21 analysts covering FCX, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with 13 "Strong Buy" ratings, three "Moderate Buys," and five "Holds" [5] - Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target for FCX to $70, maintaining an "Overweight" rating, suggesting an 11.3% potential upside from the current trading price above the mean target of $58.35 [6]