Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Indonesian government to extend the operating rights for PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) in the Grasberg minerals district for the life of the resource, ensuring continued governance and operational structures [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The MOU stipulates that the existing governance and operating structure will remain in effect throughout the life of the resource [1] - FCX will transfer a 12% share interest in PTFI to the Indonesian government in 2041 at no cost, with reimbursement for pro-rata costs incurred [1] - FCX will maintain a 48.76% ownership interest in PTFI until 2041, reducing to approximately 37% starting in 2042 [1] Group 2: Operational and Community Commitments - PTFI will prioritize domestic downstreaming through local sales of refined copper, precious metals, and sulfuric acid, and will be positioned to market refined copper to the U.S. if needed [1] - PTFI plans to increase exploration spending and advance studies to identify long-term resources and expansion opportunities [1] - The company will enhance support for communities in Papua, including financial contributions for a new hospital and two medical educational facilities [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The extension of operating rights and other terms are contingent upon the issuance of an amended special mining business license (IUPK) by the Indonesian government [1] - PTFI intends to expedite the extension application reflecting the agreed terms [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) has nearly doubled in value over the past year, driven by rising gold prices and copper demand, but future performance will depend on commodity price stability and production growth from key holdings [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Holdings - XME increased from approximately $62 to $118, reflecting strong investor interest in commodities linked to electrification, defense, and monetary policy uncertainty [1]. - Major holdings in XME include Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan, and Alcoa, which together account for about 16% of the ETF's portfolio [1]. Group 2: Gold and Copper Prices - Gold prices surged to between $4,900 and $5,000 per ounce, significantly enhancing Newmont's profitability, resulting in $1.6 billion in free cash flow [1]. - Freeport-McMoRan may face challenges if copper prices decline to $6.00 to $6.40 per pound, although the planned restart of the Grasberg mine in Q2 2026 could help mitigate these risks by adding 300 million pounds of copper [1]. Group 3: Production Execution Risks - The restart of Freeport's Grasberg mine is a critical operational catalyst for XME in 2026, but any delays or cost overruns could negatively impact the investment thesis [1]. - Alcoa reported lower-than-expected revenues in Q3, but managed to offset some operational challenges with a $232 million gain from selling its stake in a joint venture [1]. - Execution risks are evident across the sector, with a focus on unit costs, volume guidance, and free cash flow generation being essential for assessing future performance [1].

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock is assigned a buy rating due to a significant valuation arbitrage, not being priced as a traditional capital-intensive miner [1] Group 1 - The investment thesis focuses on the inherent value of Freeport-McMoRan's shadow mine [1]

Group 1 - Copper prices are currently stable, with US prices nearing $6 per pound, which is beneficial for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the world's largest copper producer [1] - The strong performance of copper prices follows a significant rally in 2025, indicating a favorable market environment for copper producers [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan has experienced positive impacts from the high copper prices, suggesting potential growth opportunities for the company in the current market [1]

Group 1 - Copper prices are currently strong, with US prices nearing $6 per pound, benefiting Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the world's largest copper producer [1] - The favorable pricing environment has positively impacted Freeport-McMoRan's financial performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (BATT) has outperformed other ETFs in the lithium and battery sector, driven by a diversified approach that captures broader industrial trends and demand for battery energy storage systems (BESS) [1] Performance Comparison - As of February 13, 2026, BATT has increased by 14.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) which is up 10.94%, and other mining-focused ETFs like iShares Lithium Miners and Producers ETF (ILIT) at 9.7%, Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) at 4.65%, and Themes Lithium & Battery Metal Miners ETF (LIMI) at 3.77% [1] Reasons for BATT's Outperformance - BATT's total ecosystem approach includes exposure across the battery value chain, from diversified miners to cell manufacturers and grid storage leaders, unlike LIT which is heavily concentrated in lithium mining and refining [1] - Significant weights in copper and nickel have contributed to BATT's performance, with copper prices reaching new highs due to AI-driven grid modernization [1] - The launch of Project Vault, a $12 billion U.S. strategic mineral reserve, has provided a valuation floor for the sector, acting as a buyer of last resort for battery metals [1] - The demand for BESS has surged, driven by the growth of AI data centers, with companies in BATT's portfolio reporting record shipments for stationary storage [1] Key Holdings Contributing to BATT's Performance - BHP Group Ltd. (BHP) - 7.62% weight, benefiting from rising nickel prices and steady copper demand [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) - 5.71% weight, dominating the lithium iron phosphate market for utility-scale storage [1] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) - 5.24% weight, a primary copper producer benefiting from AI-driven grid upgrades [1] - Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - 4.77% weight, with its Megapack business contributing significantly to margins [1] - BYD Co. Ltd. (BYD) - 4.17% weight, maintaining high margins through vertical integration [1] Key Themes to Watch - The stationary storage market is emerging as a major performance driver, with a shift towards grid-scale batteries providing a growth narrative alongside the competitive EV market [1] - Diversified mining is proving to be a safer investment compared to pure-play lithium, allowing BATT to achieve double-digit gains amid lithium price volatility [1] - The impact of U.S. industrial policy, particularly Project Vault and tax rebate adjustments in China, is front-loading global demand and intensifying the battery arms race [1]

Production and Operations - Freeport-McMoRan's copper production in 2025 was significantly impacted by the September mud rush incident at the Grasberg minerals district, with a phased restart of operations anticipated in Q2 2026[18]. - The company achieved an annual run rate of approximately 240 million pounds of copper by late 2025, with a target of 300 million pounds for 2026[17]. - In 2025, 70% of Freeport-McMoRan's consolidated copper production came from the Morenci mine in the U.S., the Cerro Verde mine in Peru, and the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia[27]. - The Morenci mine produced 0.7 billion pounds of copper and 7 million pounds of molybdenum in 2025, compared to 0.8 billion pounds of copper and 3 million pounds of molybdenum in 2023[104]. - The Bagdad mine's production totaled 149 million pounds of copper and 11 million pounds of molybdenum in 2025, with a potential to increase copper production by 200 to 250 million pounds per year through expansion[112][113]. - Safford's copper production totaled 287 million pounds in 2025, up from 249 million pounds in 2024 and 245 million pounds in 2023[123]. - Sierrita's copper production reached 184 million pounds and molybdenum production was 17 million pounds in 2025, compared to 165 million pounds and 15 million pounds in 2024[131]. - Miami's copper production remained stable at 9 million pounds in both 2025 and 2024, down from 12 million pounds in 2023[139]. - Chino's copper production increased to 150 million pounds in 2025, up from 133 million pounds in 2024 and 141 million pounds in 2023[147]. - Tyrone's copper production decreased to 32 million pounds in 2025, down from 43 million pounds in 2024 and 51 million pounds in 2023[152]. - Cerro Verde's copper production totaled 0.9 billion pounds in 2025, consistent with 0.9 billion pounds in 2024 and down from 1.0 billion pounds in 2023[176]. - El Abra's copper production was 201 million pounds in 2025, a decrease from 219 million pounds in 2024 and 217 million pounds in 2023[186]. - PTFI's copper cathode production from its refinery reached 42,600 metric tons in 2025[205]. - Underground operations produce approximately 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold per year[209]. - Production in 2025 totaled 1.0 billion pounds of copper and 0.9 million ounces of gold, down from 1.8 billion pounds of copper and 1.9 million ounces of gold in 2024[211]. - The decrease in production volumes in 2025 was attributed to the September 2025 mud rush incident[211]. Financial Performance - For 2025, Freeport-McMoRan's consolidated revenues were primarily derived from copper (75%), gold (15%), and molybdenum (8%) sales[37]. - The average LME copper settlement price for 2025 was $4.51 per pound, while the average COMEX price was $4.82 per pound, reflecting a 7% higher price for COMEX compared to LME[19][32]. - PTFI's copper revenues are recorded net of royalties, treatment charges, and export duties prior to the expiration of its export license on September 16, 2025[50]. - Gold produced by PTFI is primarily sold as a component of copper concentrate or in anode slimes, with revenues recorded net of treatment charges, royalties, and export duties[53]. - PTFI is the world's largest producer of molybdenum and molybdenum-based chemicals, with sales primarily priced based on the average published Platts Metals Daily prices[55]. Reserves and Resources - The geographic allocation of Freeport-McMoRan's estimated recoverable proven and probable copper reserves as of December 31, 2025, was 38% in the U.S., 40% in South America, and 22% in Indonesia[22]. - The company is well-positioned for future growth with significant copper reserves and a high-quality portfolio of growth projects to meet increasing market demand[16]. - PTFI's net PP&E and mine development costs totaled $22.2 billion as of December 31, 2025[208]. Environmental and Regulatory Compliance - As of December 31, 2025, PTFI had $2.0 billion recorded for environmental obligations and $3.8 billion for asset retirement obligations[59]. - Environmental capital expenditures totaled $0.5 billion in 2025, with an expected increase to approximately $0.7 billion in 2026[59]. - PTFI completed the Tailings Management Roadmap commitments for the 2018 through 2024 period, with the current phase extending from 2025 through 2030[73]. - PTFI received approval for an addendum to the AMDAL covering activities associated with the conversion of its power plant from coal-fired to liquefied natural gas (LNG)[74]. - PTFI's coal-fired power plant was not within the scope of Indonesia's carbon emissions trading system in 2025, and the company continues to monitor regulations[76]. - The company anticipates dedicating more resources and incurring more costs to comply with future climate change regulatory programs[78]. - The company is subject to extensive health and safety regulations, with potential compliance costs that could significantly impact operating expenses[90]. Expansion and Technological Advancements - The company is advancing potential expansion opportunities at its copper mines in the U.S. and South America, incorporating new technologies and data analytics into its processes[17]. - Estimated incremental project capital costs for the Bagdad expansion are approximately $3.5 billion, requiring an incentive copper price of about $4.00 per pound[113]. - The conversion of Bagdad's haul truck fleet to autonomous haulage was completed in 2025, making it the first major mine in the U.S. to operate a fully autonomous fleet[114]. - PTFI has successfully commissioned three large-scale underground mines in the Grasberg minerals district[209]. - Exploration is ongoing in the Grasberg minerals district to target significant mineralization below the DMLZ underground mine[210]. Production Capacity and Infrastructure - The Morenci operation has a milling design capacity of 132,000 metric tons of ore per day, with a total EW tank house capacity of approximately 900 million pounds of copper per year[103]. - Safford's SX/EW facility has a capacity of approximately 320 million pounds of copper cathode per year[122]. - Sierrita's concentrator has a milling design capacity of 100,000 metric tons of ore per day, producing copper and molybdenum concentrate[130]. - Chino's SX/EW plant has a design capacity of 150 million pounds of copper per year[146]. - Cerro Verde has an annual average permitted milling capacity of 409,500 metric tons of ore per day, with the ability to treat up to 450,450 metric tons of ore per day[174]. - PTFI's smelter has a capacity to process approximately 1.7 million metric tons of copper concentrate per year, with copper anode production totaling 54,100 metric tons in 2025[205]. Future Outlook - Following the September 2025 mud rush incident, PTFI expects to restore approximately 85% of its total production at normal operating rates in the second half of 2026[201]. - Cerro Verde entered into a new power purchase agreement expected to transition to fully renewable energy sources by 2026[178]. - PTFI is preparing an application for a long-term extension of its operating rights expected to be submitted during 2026[197].

经济观察网麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.US)2026年将迎来多项关键运营节点，包括Grasberg Block Cave(GBC)矿 区计划复产、2026年产量指引发布以及Kucing Liar矿体开发计划调整。 公司项目推进 公司上调了Kucing Liar矿体的产量目标，计划于2030年投产，预计铜产量增至7.5亿磅，黄金产量增至 73.5万盎司。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 近期事件 Grasberg Block Cave(GBC)矿区计划于2026年4月恢复生产。该矿区此前因2025年9月的泥石流事故暂停 运营，复产有望推动2026年下半年铜和金销量集中释放。 业绩经营情况 公司指出，2026年铜和黄金销量将更多集中在下半年，伴随GBC产量恢复。同时，公司首次为美国铜 矿设定2030年产量目标(20亿磅铜)和2027年单位净现金成本目标(2.50美元/磅)。 ...

Core Insights - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) reported better-than-expected financial results in Q4, driven by significant increases in copper and gold prices, although lower sales volumes negatively impacted performance [1][4] Sales Performance - Copper sales volumes decreased approximately 29% year-over-year to 709 million pounds, down from 977 million pounds in the previous quarter [1] - Gold sales volumes fell around 77% year-over-year, with only 80,000 ounces sold in Q4 [1] Operational Challenges - The decline in sales volumes was primarily due to the temporary suspension of operations at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia following a mud rush incident in September 2025 [2][8] - FCX's outlook for Q1 2026 anticipates minimal contributions from Indonesian operations, projecting copper sales volumes of 640 million pounds, reflecting a 10% sequential and 27% year-over-year decline [3][8] Industry Comparison - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) reported a 2.8% increase in copper sales volumes year-over-year, selling 235,591 tons in Q4 [5] - BHP Group Limited (BHP) experienced a 2% year-over-year increase in copper sales, totaling approximately 504.5kt in Q2 of fiscal 2026 [6] Financial Metrics - FCX shares have increased by 55.3% over the past six months, compared to an 81.2% rise in the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 27.13, which is a 6.7% premium to the industry average of 25.43 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX's earnings in 2026 and 2027 suggests year-over-year increases of 35.6% and 16.3%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [11]

Investment Strategy - The focus is on creating a stable flow of retirement income through a unique strategy developed by the founder's father, which has proven effective over time [5][6] - The investment approach includes three income portfolios with risk levels ranging from 5% to 12%, and two growth portfolios aimed at capital gains [6][7] - The strategy emphasizes capital preservation, aiming to maintain a majority of funds in dependable stocks with yields of 5% to 7% as retirement approaches [7][11] Portfolio Management - The growth side of the portfolio is gradually reduced over time, with a small percentage retained for potential high returns, exemplified by Tesla's significant growth [8] - In the previous year, the strategy successfully harvested approximately $173,000 in profits from stocks like Nvidia, which were then redeployed into income-generating assets [10] - The approach includes taking profits from high-performing stocks and reallocating them to maintain a balanced income stream [10][19] Market Insights - The energy sector was identified as a major loser in the previous year, but has since rebounded, with stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron showing significant gains [13][15] - The current market is characterized by high volatility, with the Fed's hawkish statements and upcoming economic data being critical factors to watch [32][34] - Concerns about employment weakening due to AI advancements are noted, with the upcoming employment report expected to be significant for market direction [34] Tax Considerations - Tax loss harvesting is a strategy employed to offset gains with losses, influencing stock movements at the beginning of the year [52][53] - The earnings season has shown a trend where stocks reporting good earnings are still experiencing sell-offs, indicating a cautious market environment [55] Long-term Perspective - Emphasis is placed on maintaining a long-term investment perspective amidst market noise and volatility, with a focus on high-conviction holdings [37][63] - Historical market recoveries are highlighted as a reassurance for investors during downturns, encouraging patience and strategic decision-making [60][62]