Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) is primarily a mining company that produces copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals [3] - The outlook on copper prices suggests that copper may be peaking due to reduced demand from China and competition from fiber optics in data centers [1] - Despite the concerns regarding copper, gold remains a strong investment option, and Freeport-McMoRan is expected to benefit from its gold production [3] Group 2 - The stock has historically tended to decline after earnings reports, indicating potential volatility for investors [3] - While Freeport-McMoRan is recognized as a potential investment, there are AI stocks that are considered to have greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

23 March 2026 Global Metals & Mining Global Metals & Mining: 2026 Walls of Supply Bob Brackett, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8422 bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro +44 20 7676 6825 andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com Understanding the progress of large/important mining projects is integral to our framework in analyzing the sector. In this note, we analyze hundreds of projects across twelve commodities which have the potential (reserves & resources) to contribute more than 1% of current demand. Commodity up-c ...

Core Insights - Mining stocks are experiencing a significant downturn, with the selloff intensifying on Thursday [1] Industry Summary - The mining sector is currently facing challenges, leading to a decline in stock prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan is experiencing a mixed performance in the market, with a recent increase in stock price but a significant decline over the past month, leading to investor anticipation for its upcoming earnings report [1][2]. Company Performance - In the latest trading session, Freeport-McMoRan closed at $57.09, reflecting a +1.08% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.54% [1]. - Over the past month, Freeport-McMoRan's shares have depreciated by 16.79%, underperforming the Basic Materials sector's loss of 14.52% and the S&P 500's loss of 4.71% [1]. Earnings Projections - The upcoming earnings report is projected to show earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49, which represents a 104.17% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - Quarterly revenue is estimated at $5.61 billion, reflecting a 2% decrease from the year-ago period [2]. - For the full year, earnings are projected at $2.55 per share and revenue at $27.66 billion, indicating increases of +44.07% and +6.73% respectively from the prior year [3]. Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Freeport-McMoRan are being monitored, as upward revisions indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's business operations and profit generation capabilities [4]. - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates these estimate changes, currently ranks Freeport-McMoRan at 3 (Hold) [6]. Valuation Metrics - Freeport-McMoRan has a Forward P/E ratio of 22.17, which is a discount compared to the industry average of 23.25 [7]. - The company holds a PEG ratio of 0.66, indicating a favorable growth outlook compared to the Mining - Non Ferrous industry average PEG ratio of 1.24 [8]. Industry Context - The Mining - Non Ferrous industry is part of the Basic Materials sector and has a Zacks Industry Rank of 95, placing it in the top 39% of over 250 industries [8]. - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is set to report earnings, with expectations of significant growth in EPS but a slight decline in revenue compared to the previous year [2][3]. Earnings Performance - FCX is forecasted to report an EPS of $0.49, reflecting a 104.17% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - The anticipated revenue is $5.61 billion, indicating a 2% decrease from the same quarter last year [2]. Annual Estimates - For the annual period, earnings are expected to be $2.55 per share, representing a 44.07% increase year-over-year [3]. - Revenue is projected at $27.66 billion, showing a 6.73% increase from the previous year [3]. Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for FCX are important, as upward revisions indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's operations and profit generation [3]. Zacks Rank and Performance - FCX currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate having increased by 1.69% over the last 30 days [5]. - The Zacks Rank system has a strong track record, with 1 stocks averaging a 25% annual return since 1988 [5]. Valuation Metrics - FCX has a Forward P/E ratio of 21.56, which is lower than the industry average of 23.12, suggesting it is trading at a discount [6]. - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.64, compared to the industry average of 1.25, indicating favorable growth expectations relative to its valuation [7]. Industry Context - The Mining - Non Ferrous industry, to which FCX belongs, ranks in the top 39% of all industries, with a Zacks Industry Rank of 94 [7]. - Strong industry performance is indicated, as the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8].

The recent downturn in Freeport-McMoran Inc. ( FCX ) offers a compelling entry point for this industry titan in the mining sector. The foundation of my bullish thesis rests on three pillars. First, despite recent geopolitical events and uncertainty over the US economy, theA top-down equity investor with a focus on fundamental analysis and macroeconomics. I aim to identify undervalued companies by diving deep into financial statements, industry dynamics and broader economic factors. With a particular focus o ...

Group 1: Venture Global (VG) and LNG Market - Venture Global (VG) reported Q4 2025 earnings with revenue up 192.8% year-over-year to $4.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 191% to $2 billion, indicating strong financial performance amid global supply crises [3] - The indefinite shutdown of Qatar's Ras Laffan facility has caused global gas prices to spike, further increasing the value of VG's uncontracted supply [2][4] - VG's stock jumped nearly 17% in a single session following the news of Qatar's shutdown, reflecting market sensitivity to LNG supply disruptions [2] Group 2: Rare Earth and Helium Supply Chain - The military's demand for rare earth metals has surged due to ongoing conflicts, with REalloys planning to build the largest heavy rare earth metallization facility outside of China [8][9] - Qatar's shutdown of its LNG facilities has also halted helium production, which is critical for semiconductor manufacturing and medical applications, leading to potential supply disruptions for up to six months [15][16] - Linde, a major industrial gas supplier, is positioned to benefit from the helium shortage, as it controls a significant portion of the distribution network [17][18] Group 3: Oil and Tanker Market Dynamics - VAALCO Energy is positioned favorably due to its operations being far from conflict zones, with a projected 225% organic production growth this year [20][21] - Frontline, a major tanker operator, has seen VLCC day rates surge past $200,000 due to increased demand and limited supply, indicating a strong market for tanker operators [12][13] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil supply chains, leading to a premium on oil that does not require war-risk insurance [19] Group 4: Copper Market and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) - Freeport-McMoRan is experiencing a surge in copper prices, with LME prices recently crossing $13,000 per tonne due to supply constraints from the Strait of Hormuz closure [25][26] - The demand for copper is expected to increase due to military procurement and infrastructure upgrades, further driving prices higher [24][27] - Despite operational challenges, FCX's strong market position and rising copper prices suggest significant upside potential [26][27]

Core Insights - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) and Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) are key players in the copper mining sector, benefiting from increasing demand driven by electrification and infrastructure trends while facing challenges from fluctuating copper prices and global economic uncertainties [1][2]. Copper Market Overview - Copper prices were volatile but generally favorable in 2025, supported by strong demand from China and the United States, alongside structural tailwinds from electric vehicles, renewable energy projects, and grid modernization [2]. - Concerns about supply tightening due to rising demand for electric vehicles and infrastructure have also bolstered copper prices, which are currently around $5.3 per pound [3]. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) - FCX is focusing on high-quality copper assets and organic growth initiatives, with significant expansions at Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile, potentially adding substantial copper production [4][5]. - The company has a strong liquidity profile, generating $5.6 billion in operating cash flows in 2025, with $3.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents at year-end [7]. - FCX's net debt stood at $2.3 billion at the end of 2025, below its target range, and it has a policy of distributing 50% of available cash to shareholders [8]. - However, FCX faces challenges with rising costs, as its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper surged to $2.22 in Q4 2025, a 59% increase from the previous quarter [11]. - Copper sales volumes dropped approximately 29% year-over-year in Q4 2025, primarily due to operational disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [12][13]. Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) - ERO achieved record copper production of 19,706 tons in Q4 2025, a significant increase from the previous year, driven by improved operational stability and ramp-up at the Tucuma operation [14]. - The company expects consolidated copper production in 2026 to increase by up to 20% from 2025 levels, supported by higher throughput at its operations [15]. - ERO is investing in its Brazilian assets to enhance output and extend mine life, with ongoing projects like the Furnas Copper-Gold Project expected to add significant resources [18]. - ERO ended 2025 with $105.4 million in cash and a net debt leverage ratio of 1.2x, indicating strong financial health [19]. - Despite positive growth, ERO anticipates a weaker first half of 2026 due to production sequencing and higher unit costs, with C1 cash costs projected to rise [21][22]. Comparative Performance - FCX stock has increased by 25.2% over the past year, while ERO stock has surged by 70.1%, outperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry growth of 36% [25]. - FCX is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 19.46, slightly below the industry average, while ERO's multiple is significantly lower at 5.46 [26][28]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX's 2026 sales and EPS implies growth of 6.7% and 44%, respectively, while ERO's estimates suggest growth of 43.6% and 100% [30][32]. Investment Outlook - Both FCX and ERO are advancing their growth projects amid a volatile copper pricing environment, with FCX focusing on expansion activities and ERO capitalizing on record production and long-term projects [35].

Core Insights - The world's largest mining companies have experienced stock losses nearing 30% since the onset of the war, with copper entering a bear market, silver down 40% from its peak, and gold facing its worst week in decades [1][2] Market Performance - Gold futures fell by $225 an ounce, closing at $4,492, marking a 3.5% decline for the day and over 11% for the week [1] - Silver dropped to $67.81, a 6.9% decrease from the start of trading on Friday [1] - Copper ended the day down 4.0% at $5.30 per pound ($11,690 per tonne), with a weekly decline of 7.4% [2] Company-Specific Impacts - Newmont's stock is down 26.3% since the war began, trading at a market cap of $104 billion, down from $143 billion [3][4] - Barrick Mining has seen a 26.8% decline, with a market cap of $62 billion, down $27 billion since late January [4] - Teck Resources holds a royalty on Barrick's Fourmile gold project, which could significantly impact Barrick's valuation [5] Other Mining Companies - AngloGold Ashanti's shares have plummeted 37.4% in March, resulting in a market value of $40 billion, while Gold Fields lost 33.6% to $35 billion [5] - Wheaton Precious Metals has fallen nearly 30% since the conflict began, now valued at $52 billion [6] - Fresnillo's shares are down 31.3% in March, reducing its market cap to $30 billion [7] Broader Industry Trends - BHP's shares have decreased by 20.0%, with a market cap of $168.58 billion, despite record profits [8] - Glencore has only lost 4.3% since the start of the conflict, now valued at $81 billion, making it the best performer among major mining companies year-to-date [18] - Vale's stock has declined by 18.2%, with a market cap of $61 billion, positioning it as one of the better-performing large-cap miners [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article compares Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont (NEM) in terms of their recent performance and future outlook, highlighting the challenges and opportunities each company faces in the mining sector. Financial Performance - Freeport-McMoRan reported Q4 earnings that exceeded expectations by 51.6%, despite a significant drop in copper and gold output due to a mud rush at its Grasberg mine, with copper production at 640 million pounds and gold at 65,000 ounces. Higher copper prices at $5.33 per pound helped mitigate losses [1][6]. - Newmont achieved record full-year free cash flow of $7.3 billion and ended the year with a net cash position of $2.1 billion, although it anticipates a decline in gold production to 5.3 million ounces in 2026 and an increase in all-in sustaining costs to $1,680 per ounce [1][7]. Production Challenges - FCX's recovery is contingent on restarting Grasberg production in Q2 2026, with a target of reaching 85% of normal production rates in the second half of 2026. The company aims for copper sales to recover to 4.1 to 4.2 billion pounds annually by 2027-2028 [2][9]. - Newmont faces a different challenge, with production expected to decrease due to planned mine sequencing and potential tax changes in Ghana, which could increase costs by approximately $50 per ounce [10]. Cost Management - FCX's operating cash flow is highly sensitive to copper prices, with projections of around $8 billion at $5.00 per pound and about $11 billion at $5.75 per pound [11]. - Newmont's ability to maintain gold prices above $3,000 per ounce is crucial to offset rising costs in 2026, and the new CEO must ensure effective capital allocation during a year of lower production [12]. Investment Outlook - FCX presents more upside potential if Grasberg restarts on schedule and copper prices remain strong, but this upside is concentrated in a single mine [13]. - Newmont has a stronger balance sheet and a lower forward P/E ratio of 14x compared to FCX's 23x, along with a commitment to a $1.1 billion annual dividend, indicating a more stable investment profile [13].