Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended Q4 2024 with $259 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash [64] - Combined operating revenue and other net income was $8.9 million for the fourth quarter and $32.7 million for the full year [64] - Company-wide loss from operations was $19.6 million last quarter with a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.3 million [65] - The company anticipates a clear path to a positive run rate adjusted EBITDA in 2025, marking a significant shift in financial trajectory [66] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The RNG subsidiary generated $15.8 million in revenue during the year [64] - The North Dakota plant is producing about 67 million gallons a year of low-carbon ethanol, including 2 million gallons of ultra-low-carbon intensity corn fiber ethanol [70] - The carbon intensity score for the North Dakota plant is approximately 21 grams of CO2 per megajoule, making it one of the lowest in the industry [71] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is working towards securing a final LCFS carbon intensity score from CARB, expected in Q1 2025, which will unlock more value and better margins for the RNG project [64] - The ATJ60 project in South Dakota has received a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee totaling $1.63 billion, which includes capitalized interest during construction [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on modularization to replicate successful projects, aiming to convert existing ethanol plants into ATJ plants [28][44] - The strategic alliance with Accents aims to develop, commercialize, and license ethanol to jet fuel technology globally [76] - The company is targeting financial close for the ATJ60 project by the end of 2025, with an expected $800 million equity raise through a special purpose vehicle [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing bipartisan support for the 45Z tax credit extension and the potential for significant economic impact from the ATJ60 plant [35][40] - The company is actively monitoring the Summit Pipeline issue, which could affect project economics [20][22] - Management emphasized the importance of capturing value from carbon abatement and the growing voluntary carbon market [32][90] Other Important Information - The company achieved first revenue from Verity, its software platform for tracking regenerative agricultural products, and expects to grow its customer base in 2025 [67] - The ATJ60 project is expected to create 100 direct jobs and 700 indirect jobs, contributing over $100 million annually to regional economic development [39][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the equity investor options for the Net Zero One opportunity? - Management indicated a range of potential investors, including strategic and classic financial funds [82][84] Question: Does some of this need to be arranged to close the DOE loan? - It was confirmed that commitments are a prerequisite to reach financial close [86] Question: What are the options to monetize carbon capture at North Dakota? - Options include bundling CCS value with renewable fuel or participating in the carbon dioxide removal credits market [95] Question: How are recent tariff announcements impacting potential costs for the ATJ60 project? - Management stated that tariffs are not impacting the project [106] Question: Can you provide future milestones for the ethanol to olefins technology? - The focus is on de-risking the technology and preparing for commercialization within 12 to 18 months [110] Question: What is the status of the DOE process and what obstacles have been encountered? - The process has been slowed by environmental requirements and the transition period, with completion expected sometime this year [130][132] Question: What is the cash coming from carbon credits at Red Trail? - The carbon intensity score allows for significant tax credits, contributing to the expected adjusted EBITDA range [141]

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production - Gevo's flagship Alcohol-to-Jet Project (ATJ-60) is expected to produce approximately 60 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) per year, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the aviation industry [16]. - Global jet fuel consumption is projected to increase from approximately 92 billion gallons in 2023 to 99 billion gallons in 2024, indicating a growing market for SAF [20]. - Gevo's Alcohol-to-Jet projects utilize renewable energy and low-carbon feedstocks, aligning with the company's commitment to a sustainable energy future [16]. - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that SAF will provide 62% of the carbon mitigation needed for the aviation industry to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 [25]. - Gevo aims to achieve at least 1 billion gallons of sales in the next decade through greenfield projects and leveraging existing ethanol production capacity [28]. - The ATJ-60 project is expected to produce approximately 65 million gallons per year, including 60 million gallons of SAF, and generate around 1.3 billion pounds of high-value protein products annually [29]. Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Production - Gevo operates one of the largest dairy-based renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities in the U.S., converting byproducts into clean energy, which diversifies revenue streams [15]. - The RNG Project in Northwest Iowa surpassed its annual production target of 310,000 million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023 and is expected to increase output to 400,000 MMBtu following an expansion [38]. - Gevo's revenue from the RNG segment primarily comes from environmental attributes associated with the project, including renewable identification numbers (RINs) from the EPA's Renewable Fuels Standard program [39]. - The company plans to apply a provisional Tier 2 pathway carbon intensity score to RNG production activities that occurred in Q4 2024, enhancing its market position [41]. - The GevoRNG project in Northwest Iowa has a capacity of 400,000 MMBtu of renewable natural gas (RNG) per year, with sales agreements in place for the California market [61]. Financial and Operational Challenges - The company has a history of net losses and will require substantial additional financing to achieve its growth goals, which may impact development and commercialization efforts [12]. - The company is subject to various risks, including fluctuations in feedstock prices and potential challenges in commercializing its alcohol-to-SAF projects [12]. - The company is exposed to market risks related to environmental attribute pricing, commodity pricing, interest rates, credit risk, and equity price risks [286]. - A hypothetical 10% decrease in the average realized price per RIN and LCFS credit could negatively impact operating profit by approximately $1.2 million and $0.3 million, respectively [287]. - The company's common stock price has been volatile, posing risks for future equity funding [291]. Technological Innovations and Strategies - Gevo's modularization strategy aims to improve scalability and reduce capital costs for future SAF production projects [16]. - The company focuses on low-carbon energy solutions, including the production of hydrocarbons for gasoline, diesel fuel, and chemicals, leveraging innovative technology [15]. - Gevo's technology platform aims to produce renewable liquid hydrocarbons and protein products for the food chain, enhancing its market offerings [15]. - Gevo's vertically integrated technologies and extensive patent portfolio provide a competitive advantage in driving down carbon intensity scores and maximizing production margins [44]. - The company has developed two fermentation methods for alcohol production: ethanol (2 carbons) and isobutanol (4 carbons), with isobutanol offering long-term potential for lower carbon intensity (CI) scores [49]. Regulatory and Compliance Factors - The company is subject to rigorous environmental regulations, requiring substantial resources for compliance and potential impacts on product development [72]. - The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program provides value through Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) for the company's RNG products, which could be affected by future regulatory changes [73]. Employee and Safety Commitments - As of December 31, 2024, the company had a total of 122 employees, with 48 in Project Development and 16 in Research and Development [77]. - The company reported no reportable injuries and no lost time incidents during 2024, highlighting a strong commitment to health and safety [78]. - The company pays 100% of health, dental, and vision insurance premiums for employees and their families, despite rising costs [79]. Agricultural and Data Capabilities - The company acquired Cultivate Agricultural Intelligence, LLC in Q3 2024, enhancing its agricultural data capabilities through high-resolution drone and satellite technology [59]. - The Verity Tracking platform launched in Q2 2023 allows farmers to measure, report, and verify carbon intensity scores, providing insights into performance factors [58].

Gevo (GEVO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call March 27, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants Eric Frey - VP of Finance & StrategyPatrick Gruber - CEO & DirectorLynn Smull - Chief Financial OfficerChris Ryan - President, Chief Operating OfficerPaul Bloom - Chief Business OfficerNate Pendleton - Vice PresidentEthan Fingerer - Financial Advisor, Executive Director-InvestmentsJames Arett - Financial Advisor Conference Call Participants Amit Dayal - Managing Director & Senior Technology AnalystPeter Gastreich - Managing Di ...

Financial Performance - Combined operating revenue and investment income for Q4 2024 was $8.9 million, with full-year revenue at $32.7 million[4]. - The RNG subsidiary generated revenue of $15.8 million in 2024, reflecting a $0.3 million increase from the previous year[4]. - Loss from operations for Q4 2024 was $19.6 million, with a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.3 million[4]. - Total operating revenues for 2024 decreased by $0.3 million compared to 2023, primarily due to lower sales of environmental attributes[5]. - Net loss for 2024 was $78.6 million, with a net loss per share of $0.34[23]. - Gevo, Inc. reported a net loss of $78,640,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to a net loss of $66,215,000 in 2023, representing an increase in loss of approximately 18.5%[24]. - The comprehensive loss for 2024 was $78,640,000, up from $65,175,000 in 2023, indicating a year-over-year increase of about 20.7%[24]. - The company reported a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss of $57,793,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to a loss of $45,741,000 in 2023, indicating a deterioration of approximately 26.4%[28]. Cash and Assets - Gevo ended Q4 2024 with cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaling $259.0 million[4]. - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of 2024 were $259,033,000, down from $375,597,000 at the end of 2023, representing a decrease of about 30.9%[26]. - Total assets decreased from $650.3 million in 2023 to $583.9 million in 2024[22]. - Total stockholders' equity decreased to $489,488,000 as of December 31, 2024, down from $557,389,000 in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 12.2%[25]. Expenses - Research and development expenses decreased by $1.1 million in 2024, attributed to reduced consulting and personnel costs[7]. - General and administrative expenses increased by $3.2 million in 2024, mainly due to higher personnel costs and consulting fees[8]. - Project development costs rose by $3.4 million in 2024, driven by patent-related costs and increased personnel expenses[9]. - Net cash used in operating activities for 2024 was $57,383,000, compared to $53,719,000 in 2023, showing an increase of about 6.2%[26]. - Gevo, Inc. incurred $51,085,000 in capital expenditures for property, plant, and equipment in 2024, slightly down from $54,455,000 in 2023[26]. - Stock-based compensation expenses decreased to $14,733,000 in 2024 from $17,087,000 in 2023, reflecting a reduction of approximately 13.4%[28]. Acquisitions and Financing - Gevo, Inc. completed the acquisition of CultivateAI in 2024, with a net cash outflow of $6,070,000 related to this acquisition[26]. - The company issued Remarketed Bonds in 2024, generating proceeds of $68,155,000, which were used to extinguish 2021 Bonds[26].

Core Viewpoint - Gevo, Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024, highlighting a decrease in operating revenue and an increase in operational losses, while reaffirming its business update released earlier in March 2025 [1]. Financial Highlights - Operating revenue for 2024 decreased by $0.3 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to lower sales of environmental attributes from the RNG project [4]. - The company sold 366,557 MMBtu of RNG, generating biogas commodity sales of $0.7 million and environmental attribute sales of $15.1 million [4]. - Total operating revenues for 2024 were $16.915 million, down from $17.200 million in 2023 [23]. - Loss from operations increased by $9.0 million to $90.824 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $81.835 million in 2023 [10][23]. - Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss for 2024 was $57.793 million, compared to a loss of $45.741 million in 2023 [29]. Expense Analysis - Cost of production remained consistent at $12.002 million in 2024, compared to $11.991 million in 2023 [23]. - Research and development expenses decreased by $1.1 million to $5.576 million in 2024, primarily due to reduced consulting and personnel costs [6]. - General and administrative expenses increased by $3.2 million to $45.798 million, driven by higher personnel costs and consulting fees [7]. - Project development costs rose by $3.4 million to $18.166 million, mainly due to patent-related costs and increased personnel expenses [8]. Cash and Investment Position - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaling $259.0 million [11]. - Interest and investment income decreased by $3.4 million to $15.740 million in 2024, attributed to cash usage for capital projects and operating costs [12]. Operational Developments - The company anticipates receiving final pathway approval under the LCFS Program in the first quarter of 2025, which is expected to result in a lower CI score [4][11]. - The RNG subsidiary generated revenue of $15.8 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of $0.3 million compared to the previous year [11]. Stockholder Equity - Total stockholders' equity decreased to $489.488 million as of December 31, 2024, from $557.389 million in 2023 [22].

Core Points - Gevo, Inc. will host a rescheduled conference call on March 27, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. ET to report its financial results for Q4 2024 [1] - A webcast replay of the conference call will be available two hours after it ends, accessible in the Investor Relations section of Gevo's website [2] Company Overview - Gevo is a diversified energy company focused on providing cost-effective, drop-in fuels that enhance energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and support rural economic growth [3] - The company utilizes innovative technology to produce renewable products, including synthetic aviation fuel, motor fuels, and chemicals, contributing to U.S.-made solutions [3] - Gevo operates one of the largest dairy-based renewable natural gas facilities in the U.S. and an ethanol plant with a carbon capture and sequestration facility [3] - The company is recognized for owning the world's first production facility for specialty alcohol-to-jet fuels and chemicals [3] - Gevo's market-driven approach emphasizes transparency and efficiency in tracking sustainability attributes throughout the supply chain [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gevo, Inc. is targeting substantial growth in Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, supported by its recent acquisition of Gevo North Dakota and various renewable energy projects [1][4]. Business Update – Path to Positive Run-Rate Adjusted EBITDA - Gevo North Dakota's carbon capture and low-carbon ethanol assets generated $150 million in revenue last fiscal year and are expected to contribute $30 million to $60 million in Adjusted EBITDA annually [2][15]. - The facility captures over 160,000 tons of biogenic carbon dioxide annually and produces approximately 67 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol [2]. - Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) production increased by 17% in 2024 to 367,000 MMBtu, with expectations to exceed 400,000 MMBtu in 2025, potentially generating $9 million to $18 million in Adjusted EBITDA [2][4]. - The Alcohol-to-Jet 603 (ATJ-60) project is progressing towards financial close in 2025, with a conditional loan guarantee of $1.462 billion from the U.S. Department of Energy [2][5]. - The ATJ-60 project is expected to create 100 direct jobs and over 700 indirect jobs, with a regional economic impact exceeding $110 million annually [2][5]. Verity Business Growth - Gevo's Verity business, a software-as-a-service platform for tracking agricultural and low-carbon fuel products, has expanded to over 200,000 acres with 100% farmer retention [3]. - Verity has agreements with seven agricultural processing plant customers to track environmental attributes, indicating a growing market for regenerative agriculture and fuels [3]. ETO Technology Advancement - Gevo is advancing its patented Ethanol to Olefins (ETO) technology, which aims to lower costs for bio-based hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals [3]. - A development agreement with Axens aims to accelerate commercialization of ETO technology, with a global market for low-carbon chemicals estimated at $400 billion to $500 billion annually [3]. Management Insights - The acquisition of Gevo North Dakota is seen as transformative, providing a pathway to monetize carbon abatement through tax credits and expanding CCS opportunities [4]. - The company anticipates achieving a positive Adjusted EBITDA run-rate in 2025, driven by its diversified low-carbon asset base [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gevo, Inc. has announced a delay in the issuance of its fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings release and investor conference call, originally scheduled for March 6, 2025, due to the need for additional time to finalize accounting treatments related to the acquisition of Red Trail Energy, LLC [1][2]. Company Overview - Gevo is a leading developer of renewable hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, focusing on cost-effective solutions [1][3]. - The company is committed to enhancing energy security and economic growth in rural communities through its innovative technology, which produces a variety of renewable products, including synthetic aviation fuel, motor fuels, and chemicals [3]. - Gevo operates one of the largest dairy-based renewable natural gas facilities in the U.S. and an ethanol plant with an adjacent carbon capture and sequestration facility, reinforcing its role in energy innovation [3]. - The company also owns the world's first production facility for specialty alcohol-to-jet fuels and chemicals, emphasizing its market-driven approach to sustainability [3]. - Through its Verity subsidiary, Gevo ensures transparency and efficiency in tracking sustainability attributes throughout the supply chain, contributing to the revitalization of rural economies [3].

Core Viewpoint - GEVO Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 6, with anticipated challenges in revenue and earnings due to lower sales and increased expenses [1][4]. Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GEVO's revenues is $3.2 million, reflecting a 28% decline compared to the same quarter last year [3]. - Lower sales of environmental attributes from GEVO's RNG project are attributed to a buildup of inventory in anticipation of final pathway approval under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Program [3]. Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is set at 11 cents per share, indicating a 37.5% decline from the prior-year quarter [4]. - Increased personnel and consulting expenses related to the company's Net-Zero and Verity growth initiatives, along with higher interest expenses, are expected to negatively impact earnings [4]. Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a -27.27% Earnings ESP for GEVO, suggesting a low likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [5]. - GEVO currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), which further diminishes the chances of a positive earnings surprise [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) due to lower revenues, with a consensus estimate indicating a quarterly loss of $0.11 per share and revenues of $3.15 million, representing declines of 37.5% and 27.9% respectively [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on March 6, and the stock may rise if actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 41.67% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Gevo is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -27.27% [10][11]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Gevo was expected to post a loss of $0.10 per share but delivered a loss of $0.09, resulting in a surprise of +10% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Gevo has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Conclusion - Gevo does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when making decisions regarding this stock ahead of its earnings release [16].