Singapore's middle distillates stockpiles jumped to a three-month high as net exports of diesel and jet fuel both dipped from a week earlier, official government data showed on Thursday. ...

By Enes Tunagur LONDON (Reuters) -Fuel oil used in ships and power plants is seeing unexpected demand, with efforts to curb its use more than offset by an expanding shadow fleet of oil tankers serving Russia and others, and longer shipping routes as vessels avoid the Red Sea. Instead of switching to cleaner-burning alternatives such as marine gasoil and low-sulphur fuel oil, many shippers have installed exhaust gas cleaning devices known as scrubbers to continue using high-sulphur fuel oil. Western sanct ...

阿通社9月12日援引石油输出国组织（OPEC）在其2025 年9月的月度石油市场报告中强调，阿联酋 的非石油活动继续表现出强大的韧性，整体产量增长保持稳定。报告指出，由于地区不确定性和竞争加 剧对新订单造成压力，阿联酋采购经理人指数（PMI）在7月回落至52.9，为四年来的最低水平后，8月 反弹至53.3。报告进一步强调，惠誉评级确认阿联酋主权信用评级为"AA-"，前景稳定，凸显了主权资 产的实力，增强了投资者信心，反映了该国的宏观经济韧性。此外，非石油贸易的强劲表现加强了多元 化努力，2025年上半年外贸增长24%，远远超过全球贸易增长1.8%。报告强调，这加强了阿联酋作为全 球贸易中心的作用，并支撑了非石油行业全年的活力。旅游业也被认为是增长的关键驱动力，迪拜在今 年前六个月接待了近 1000 万游客。这一表现符合酋长国的"D33"经济议程，该议程旨在将迪拜定位为 全球领先的目的地，为财政收入做出贡献并增强整体宏观经济稳定性。关于全球石油市场，报告称， 2025年世界石油需求增长预测仍为130mb/d（百万桶/日）左右，同比持平。在这些地区内，经合组织的 石油需求预计到 2025年将增长约 0.1mb/d ...

中化新网讯 7月28日，韩国业内人士及炼厂消息人士透露，鉴于近期以色列和伊朗冲突为亚洲主要原油 进口国敲响警钟，韩国与日本计划加强石油供应安全合作，以应对中东高硫原油贸易可能出现的中断风 险。 当日，韩国国家石油公司(KNOC)一官员表示，7月早些时候，该公司与日本石油、天然气和金属矿产资 源机构(JOGMEC)在蔚山举行年度会议，讨论两国石油储备政策。 韩日两国的原油需求几乎完全依赖进口。作为亚洲第三和第四大原油买家，两国均高度依赖波斯湾高硫 原油。KNOC、JOGMEC官员及韩日炼厂的原料经理均表示，在此背景下，KNOC与JOGMEC保持定期 紧密合作至关重要，尤其在石油储备与供应安全方面。据KNOC数据，韩国政府与私营部门合计石油储 备可支撑206.9天，日本则为199.3天。日本主要炼厂的原料经理透露，沙特和阿联酋占日本原油采购量 的80%以上，以伊冲突凸显出炼厂需为最坏情况做好准备。 未来，KNOC与JOGMEC计划继续举行定期会议，分享各自业务领域的经验，进一步强化两国能源安全 合作体系。KNOC一位官员称，双方技术人员将更频繁地交流想法、召开会议，制定与石油储备相关的 研究及合作计划。 双方的终 ...

Core Viewpoint - PBF Energy reported a mixed performance in Q2 2025, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $(1.03), surpassing analyst expectations, but both earnings and revenue declined year-over-year, with revenue down 14.4% [1][2] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS was $(1.03), better than the estimate of $(1.26) but a 90.7% decrease from $(0.54) in Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue was $7.48 billion, exceeding estimates by over $500 million, but down from $8.74 billion in Q2 2024 [1][2] - Income from operations was $43 million, a recovery from a loss of $(74.6) million in the previous year [2] - EBITDA decreased by 39.9% year-over-year, reflecting operational challenges [2] - Gross refining margin per barrel was $8.38, a slight increase from $8.12 in Q2 2024 [2] Operational Challenges - The Martinez refinery's partial shutdown significantly impacted production, averaging 845,800 barrels per day, down from 926,700 barrels per day in Q2 2024 [5] - West Coast throughput dropped to 203,500 barrels per day from 296,700 barrels per day year-over-year, with gross margin per barrel turning negative due to outages and compliance costs [5][6] - Operational expenses per barrel increased to $7.96 from $6.94 in Q2 2024, with West Coast expenses particularly high at $15.73 per barrel [6] Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices averaged $67.70 per barrel, down from $85.02 in Q2 2024, affecting overall performance [7] - RIN costs rose significantly from $3.38 to $6.14 per barrel-equivalent, inflating compliance costs, especially in California [8] - California is projected to need over 250,000 barrels per day of gasoline imports due to refinery closures, with PBF's refineries expected to be essential suppliers [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on operational efficiency, cost containment, and restoring damaged assets, with a target of over $200 million in annualized savings from the RBI initiative [4] - Management expects full operations at the Martinez facility to resume by year-end 2025, contingent on regulatory and supply chain timelines [6][12] Financial Position - Total debt increased to $2.39 billion as of June 30, 2025, from $1.46 billion at the end of 2024, with a total debt to capitalization ratio rising to 31% [11] - The company maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.275 per share despite recent losses [11][14] Future Outlook - For Q3 2025, management forecasts throughput of 865,000–915,000 barrels per day, an increase from Q2 2025 but still below last year's levels [12] - Full-year 2025 capital expenditure guidance remains at $750–775 million, excluding Martinez repairs [12] - Management did not provide formal forward earnings guidance for fiscal 2025, citing ongoing market volatility as a key concern [13]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the Brent crude oil price forecast for the remainder of 2025 to $66 per barrel, with expectations of further price increases due to rising price premiums and shifting market risk concerns towards supply disruptions [1][2]. Core Insights - The cautious outlook for oil prices in 2026 is based on anticipated oversupply of approximately 1.7 million barrels per day due to the ramp-up of non-OPEC projects and the development of U.S. shale oil [1][2]. - The refining industry is currently in an upward cycle, driven by supply factors, with a projected net increase in global refining capacity of only 0.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and 0.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecast - The Brent crude oil price is expected to rise to $66 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, supported by low global inventory levels, particularly in OECD countries, and concerns over supply disruptions [2][3]. - A cautious forecast for 2026 predicts a decline to around $50 per barrel due to oversupply from non-OPEC projects [1][2]. Refining Industry Dynamics - The refining sector is experiencing high profit margins, particularly in diesel, driven by low inventory levels and the permanent closure of several refineries [7][8]. - The global refining system is under pressure due to a tight supply-demand balance, with significant growth expected in the demand for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel [8]. Geopolitical and Supply Risks - Current market risks include supply disruptions and geopolitical instability, with a recommendation for conservative yet flexible trading strategies, such as purchasing call options and utilizing spot and forward contracts for hedging [5][6]. - The impact of Iranian oil production on market prices is significant, with potential price spikes if production increases dramatically [6]. OPEC and Non-OPEC Supply - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding OPEC's spare capacity, which supports forward oil prices, and the potential for oversupply if new projects come online as planned [3][4]. - The refining industry is expected to benefit from the complexities of companies like Reliance Industries, which can leverage OPEC supply increases while also growing in other sectors [8].

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·首席分析师、能源化工组行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年6月29日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：短期震荡，三季度或 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 仍有机会挑战80美元 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 观点综述：短期震荡，三季度或仍有机 ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·首席分析师、能源化工组行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年6月22日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：高位震荡，或仍有机 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 会挑战85美元/桶 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 观点综述：高位震荡，或仍有机会挑战8 ...

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 3.0%, slightly below the anticipated 3.1% [1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by only 0.1%, which was lower than the expected 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in price growth [1] - The report highlights that despite the current high tariff policies not significantly impacting consumers, there may be increased price pressures in the second half of the year as companies seek to maintain profit margins [1] Sector Analysis - **Services**: The service sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, primarily driven by a 2.9% rise in trade service margins, although transportation and warehousing services decreased by 0.2% [2] - **Goods**: Goods prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with notable increases in tobacco products (up 0.9%) and gasoline, while jet fuel prices fell by 8.2% [3] - **Core PPI**: Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating stable underlying inflation trends [4] Intermediate Demand - **Processed Goods**: There was a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in processed goods, with processed materials (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4%, while processed energy goods fell by 1.2% [5] - **Unprocessed Goods**: Unprocessed goods saw a significant month-on-month decline of 1.6%, primarily driven by an 18.7% drop in energy materials like natural gas, alongside a 1.4% decrease in non-food materials [6] Key Price Movements - **Price Increases**: Key items that saw price increases included tobacco (+0.9%), gasoline, diesel, and primary non-ferrous metals (+4.6%) [8] - **Price Decreases**: Items that experienced price declines included jet fuel (-8.2%), pork, carbon steel scrap, and natural gas (-18.7%) [9] - **Service Sector Prices**: In the service sector, air passenger transport prices fell by 1.1%, while furniture retail and securities brokerage services also declined, contrasting with increases in system software publishing [10]

Group 1 - Wildfires in northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are threatening oil sands operations, leading to project shutdowns and evacuations [2] - Canadian Natural Resources Limited has evacuated workers from the Jackfish 1 oil sands project, halting production of 36,500 barrels of asphalt per day [2] - MEG Energy has also evacuated non-essential personnel from the Christina Lake project due to wildfires disrupting third-party power lines, delaying an additional 70,000 barrels of production per day [2] Group 2 - Oil sands account for 97% of Canada's total oil reserves, primarily located in Alberta and Saskatchewan [4] - Oil sands are a mixture of sand, water, clay, and asphalt, with asphalt content ranging from 6% to 12% [4] - Approximately 20% of oil sands deposits are shallow enough for open-pit mining, while the remaining 80% require drilling and in-situ extraction methods [4] Group 3 - Extracted oil sands undergo initial processing to separate asphalt from sand and water, which can then be diluted for pipeline transport or upgraded into heavy crude oil [6] - Canada has the largest asphalt resource globally, with total asphalt content of 400 billion cubic meters, and Alberta's oil sands contain 180 billion barrels of crude oil [6] - By 2030, Canadian oil sands production is projected to reach 3.8 million barrels per day, a 15% increase from current levels, although growth may slow in the early 2030s due to various factors [6]