国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·首席分析师、能源化工组行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年6月29日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：短期震荡，三季度或 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 仍有机会挑战80美元 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 观点综述：短期震荡，三季度或仍有机 ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·首席分析师、能源化工组行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年6月22日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：高位震荡，或仍有机 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 会挑战85美元/桶 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 观点综述：高位震荡，或仍有机会挑战8 ...

受商品和服务成本温和影响，美国5月核心PPI数据不及预期。尽管目前高关税政策对美国民众影响尚不 显著，但经济学家指出，随着企业试图避免利润率进一步走软，下半年价格压力可能加剧。 新华财经北京6月12日电 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国5月PPI同比 2.6%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.4%。美国5月核心PPI同比 3.0%，预期 3.1%，前值 3.1%。环比来看，5月PPI环比仅上涨0.1%，低于 经济学家预期的0.2%。核心PPI同样仅上涨0.1%，其中商品价格（不含食品和能源）上涨0.2%，服务价 格上涨0.1%。 服务：环比涨 0.1%，贸易服务利润率（如金属矿石批发涨 4.9%）抵消部分下跌。 关键商品与服务价格 PPI数据显示，继4月下滑后，5月批发商和零售商利润率有所扩大，尤其是汽车和机械批发领域。今年 以来，利润率逐月波动，贸易政策对价格和需求影响存在不确定性。 分析师对PPI报告尤为关注，因其部分组成部分用于计算美联储青睐的通胀指标（PCE数据）。5月表现 疲软的领域：机票价格、投资组合管理费下降，医疗成本也保持温和。PCE报告将于本月晚些时候发 布。 细分领域 服务：环比涨 0.1%， ...

金十数据6月1日讯，加拿大阿尔伯塔省北部、萨斯喀彻温省及马尼托巴省多地野火失控，冷湖地区野火 直接威胁油砂作业区，迫使多项目停产疏散。 加拿大最大的石油和天然气生产商加拿大自然资源有限公司周六表示，已从Jackfish 1油砂项目撤离了 工人，并停止了每天3.65万桶的沥青生产。这家总部位于卡尔加里的公司在一份声明中表示："所有工 人都很安全，没有人员受伤报告。" 同样，MEG能源公司周六晚些时候称，该公司已"主动"撤离了克里斯蒂娜湖项目的所有非必要人员， 野火导致第三方输电线中断，与电网断开连接。该公司表示，该项目仍在生产石油，但由于停电，每天 额外7万桶的产量将推迟启动。 油砂，亦称"焦油砂"、"重油砂"或"沥青砂"。外观似黑色糖蜜，其开采方法与传统石油开采截然不同。 简单地说，油砂开采是"挖掘"石油，而不是"抽取"石油。 约20%的油砂矿床离地表不到70米，可采用露天开采；其余80%埋藏较深的油砂，则需采用钻井和"原 位"开采法，如蒸汽辅助重力泄油法（SAGD），即通过向地下注入蒸汽加热沥青，使其能够流动从而 被开采出来。 截至2024年1月，加拿大已探明石油储量为1630亿桶，排名世界第四，仅次于委内 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has transformed its operations over the past five years, achieving an annual growth in cash flow and earnings of 8% to 10% at constant prices and margins [8][10] - The company plans to grow earnings by $20 billion and cash flow by $30 billion by the end of the decade [17] - The enterprise value of the company is approximately $500 billion, with a total shareholder return of 11% last year [16][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is organized into three segments: upstream (oil and gas), product solutions (upgrading oil and gas to higher value products), and low carbon solutions [11][12] - The upstream segment is expected to triple the capacity of its Guyana operations and increase Permian assets by 50% over the next five years [9][56] - The company has doubled its earnings per barrel in upstream production over the last five years [57] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for crude oil is at an all-time high, with expectations for continued growth despite economic concerns [42][44] - Natural gas prices in Europe have stabilized at around $12 to $13 per million BTU, following a spike due to supply disruptions [48] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain an 8% to 10% growth rate in earnings and cash flow through the end of the decade, focusing on high-return investment opportunities [10][17] - The strategy includes a strong emphasis on carbon capture and sequestration, positioning the company as a leader in low carbon solutions [13][78] - The company is not participating in renewable energy but is focused on technologies that align with its core capabilities [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is unrealistic and emphasizes the need for reliable and affordable energy [24][29] - The company anticipates that oil and gas will still represent 50% of the energy mix by 2050, despite efforts to reduce emissions [29] - The current regulatory environment is seen as inefficient, particularly regarding infrastructure permitting, which hampers operational efficiency [50][52] Other Important Information - The company has a consistent and growing dividend, having increased it for 42 consecutive years, and plans to repurchase $20 billion of stock this year [18][19] - The company has a strong balance sheet with a net debt to capital ratio of 7% and a double A credit rating [92] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the nature of your energy outlook? - Management distinguishes between normative and predictive outlooks, asserting that their energy outlook is realistic and affordable, predicting a 15% increase in energy demand by 2050 [22][24] Question: How do you view the current oil price cycle? - Management describes the current oil price cycle as normal, with prices influenced by sentiment and supply-demand dynamics, noting that prices have softened recently [41][46] Question: What are your thoughts on the regulatory environment? - Management criticizes the lengthy permitting process for infrastructure projects in the U.S., calling for a more efficient system to facilitate energy production [50][52] Question: Can you provide an update on the arbitration proceedings with Hess? - Management confirms that arbitration is ongoing and expects a decision within two to three months, emphasizing that operational relationships remain strong regardless of the outcome [62][65] Question: How does the company plan to manage future cash flows? - Management expresses confidence in generating significant free cash flow by 2030, with a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet and returning value to shareholders [97][98]

Gevo (GEVO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 13, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants Eric Frey - VP of Finance & StrategyPatrick Gruber - CEO & DirectorLynn Smull - Chief Financial OfficerChris Ryan - President, Chief Operating OfficerPaul Bloom - Chief Business OfficerWhitney Mutalemwa - Equity Research Senior AssociateDerrick Whitfield - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Amit Dayal - Managing Director & Senior Technology AnalystPeter Gastreich - Managing Director - Energy and Sustainability Analys ...