Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry [12] Core Insights - The global green low-carbon and biofuel policies are intensively implemented, providing core support for industry development. China's use of waste oil as raw material positions it advantageously in international trade [4][20] - UCO supply is limited while downstream expansion is vigorous, leading to potential price increases. The bio-diesel sector has seen anti-dumping impacts bottom out, with a concentrated supply structure benefiting industry leaders [4][9] - SAF/HVO profitability may show short-term differentiation, with a focus on leading companies with first-mover advantages [4][9] Policy Support - Multiple countries and regions are resonating in policy, opening up demand ceilings. China has elevated green fuels to a strategic level, with government support for bio-diesel and SAF demand [7][20] - The EU's RED III policy aims to double the demand for advanced biofuels, particularly HVO, to meet stringent emission targets [25][26] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a net-zero emissions target for shipping by 2050, significantly increasing the demand for bio-diesel due to its high decarbonization effect [28][30] Supply and Demand Dynamics - UCO supply is constrained, with a projected annual production of 8.33 to 12 million tons, while actual utilization in the biofuel industry is about 4.98 million tons by 2025 [8] - The demand for SAF is accelerating, with domestic SAF/HVO capacity exceeding 7.2 million tons/year, leading to increased raw material demand [8] - The price of UCO is expected to rise due to its significant price difference with SAF and strong price transmission capabilities [8] Bio-Diesel Market - The impact of EU anti-dumping measures has bottomed out, with a market restructuring benefiting leading companies. The share of the top three bio-diesel exporting provinces in China is expected to rise from 52% to 82% from 2023 to 2025 [9] - The export volume of SAF/HVO from China is projected to increase by 74.24% in 2025, with a focus on European markets [9] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with mature technology and first-mover advantages in production, such as Zhuoyue New Energy [10] - Attention should also be given to upstream raw material companies, particularly those dealing with UCO [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [2] Core Insights - The government work report for 2026 emphasizes the need for a 17% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP and a 3.8% reduction in total carbon emissions, marking a shift towards dual control of carbon emissions [12][14] - The report highlights the increasing demand for green energy and biofuels, particularly biodiesel, driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [5][21] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the recycling and green energy sectors, such as biofuels and green methanol, as potential investment opportunities [5][13] Summary by Sections Government Work Report - The 2026 government work report sets higher targets for carbon emissions reduction and introduces a national low-carbon transition fund to support hydrogen and green fuel development [12][15] - The report indicates that 2026 will be the first year of formal carbon assessments for local governments [12][14] Biodiesel Market - The average export price of UCO (Used Cooking Oil) in 2025 was 7,742 CNY/ton, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [21] - UCO export volume for 2025 was 2.7558 million tons, with a 6.6% decrease compared to the previous year [21] - The report notes that the price of UCO has been on an upward trend, reaching 8,125.54 CNY/ton by December 2025 [21] Carbon Market and Policies - The report tracks developments in the carbon market, noting a recent trading volume of 56.05 million tons and a closing price of 81.85 CNY/ton [36][39] - It highlights the establishment of a comprehensive recycling system for retired solar panels, aiming for a cumulative utilization of 250,000 tons by 2027 [34] Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends monitoring companies such as Langkun Technology, Shanhai Environment, and Huanxin Co., which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for biofuels and recycling [5][33]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, adjusted EBITDA reached $42.5 billion, consistent with the previous year, while net income was $19.6 billion, or $18.1 billion excluding exclusive events [19][20] - Operating cash flow remained robust at $36 billion despite a 14% drop in Brent prices, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities [20] - The average Brent price in 2025 was $69 per barrel, a 14% decrease compared to 2024 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil production increased by 11% in 2025 compared to 2024, with significant contributions from the Búzios and Tupi/Iracema fields, both surpassing 1 million barrels per day [6][7][10] - Refinery utilization reached 91%, with 68% of production comprising higher value-added derivatives such as diesel, gasoline, and QAV [21] - Diesel sales increased by 52%, reinforcing the company's competitiveness in the Brazilian market [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company exported an average of 675,000 barrels per day in 2025, with the fourth quarter averaging nearly 1 million barrels per day [10][11] - The gas processing capacity increased to 21 million cubic meters per day with the operation of the second module of the Boaventura complex [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain capital discipline while increasing production and operational efficiency, focusing on sustainable growth and energy transition [16][31] - A significant portion of investments (84%) was allocated to exploration and production, with a commitment to low-carbon energy initiatives [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the geopolitical instability affecting oil prices but emphasized the company's preparedness for various scenarios [35][36] - The company remains committed to maintaining a solid internal pricing policy that does not transfer market volatility to the domestic market [36][44] Other Important Information - In 2025, the company incorporated 1.7 billion barrels of oil, achieving the highest number of proven reserves in the last decade [9][27] - The company paid BRL 45 billion in dividends and invested over $20 million in social and environmental projects, contributing to job creation and economic development [30] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Current scenario in the oil and gas industry considering geopolitical conflicts - Management highlighted the company's resilience and preparedness for price fluctuations, maintaining a solid internal pricing policy [35][36] Question: Priority allocation of cash flow generated in excess of budget - The focus remains on capital discipline, with any surplus cash flow directed towards scheduled investments and potential extraordinary dividends [54][55] Question: Maintaining refining margins amid high oil prices - Management confirmed the strategy to avoid transferring volatility to the domestic market, ensuring refining margins remain positive [58][64] Question: Anticipation of platform operations for 2026 - Management indicated that while some platforms are on schedule, efforts are being made to accelerate the ramp-up of existing platforms [68][72] Question: Commercial strategy in response to market volatility - The company conducts daily assessments of market conditions and adjusts its commercial strategy accordingly, ensuring robust communication among teams [77][78] Question: Impact of Middle East oil production limits on Petrobras operations - Management assured that the company has a significant inventory and long-term contracts in place, allowing for flexibility in operations [85]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, adjusted EBITDA reached $42.5 billion, consistent with the previous year, while net income was $19.6 billion, reflecting a robust performance despite external challenges [16][15] - Operating cash flow remained stable at $36 billion, demonstrating resilience amid a 14% drop in Brent crude prices [17][15] - The average Brent price in 2025 was $69 per barrel, a 14% decrease compared to 2024 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil production increased by 11% in 2025 compared to 2024, with significant contributions from the Búzios and Tupi/Iracema fields, both surpassing 1 million barrels per day [4][5] - Refinery utilization reached 91%, with 68% of production comprising higher value-added derivatives such as diesel, gasoline, and QAV [18][9] - Diesel sales saw a 52% increase, reinforcing the company's competitiveness in the domestic market [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company exported an average of 675,000 barrels per day in 2025, with the fourth quarter averaging nearly 1 million barrels per day [8][9] - The gas market also showed growth, with the Boaventura complex processing capacity increasing to 21 million cubic meters per day [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain capital discipline while increasing production and operational efficiency, focusing on sustainable practices and energy transition [13][26] - A significant portion of investments (84%) was allocated to exploration and production, with a commitment to high-quality, profitable projects [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resilience amid geopolitical instability and fluctuating oil prices, emphasizing preparedness for various scenarios [29][30] - The company is committed to optimizing operations and maintaining a strong market position, with a focus on long-term growth and profitability [40][41] Other Important Information - In 2025, the company added 1.7 billion barrels to its proven reserves, achieving the highest level in the last decade [7][22] - The company paid BRL 45 billion in dividends and invested over $20 million in social and environmental projects, contributing to job creation and economic development [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current scenario in the oil and gas industry considering geopolitical conflicts - Management highlighted the company's preparedness for price volatility and emphasized a solid internal policy to manage price fluctuations without impacting the domestic market [29][30] Question: Priority allocation of cash flow generated in excess of budget - The company reiterated its focus on capital discipline and scheduled investments, with any surplus cash flow directed towards investments and debt management [42][43] Question: Impact of high oil prices on refining margins - Management acknowledged the need for quick responses to sustained high prices, emphasizing the importance of maintaining positive refining margins [44][46] Question: Possibility of advancing platform operations to 2026 - Management confirmed that while no additional anticipations for platform sail away are planned, efforts are being made to accelerate the ramp-up of existing platforms [49][50] Question: Commercial strategy and response to market volatility - The company conducts daily assessments of market conditions and maintains frequent communication among its teams to adapt its commercial strategy effectively [54][55]

Group 1: Business Progress and Orders - Since Q4 2025, the company has made significant progress in its bioenergy business, including approval for bio-jet fuel export whitelist and successful certification from the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) [2] - The company has maintained high overall sales volume and production schedules, with new SAF orders signed while fulfilling existing HVO orders [3] - As of March 3, 2026, the HVO FOB ARA price was $3,027 per ton, reflecting a sustained high price level since Q4 2025 [3] Group 2: Regulatory Impact and Market Trends - The EU's cancellation of the advanced biofuel double-counting policy is expected to increase HVO market demand and drive prices higher [4] - The EU's SAF mandatory blending regulations, effective from January 2025, have led to increased compliance efforts from airlines, positively impacting SAF sales [4] - SAF prices have rebounded from approximately $2,100 per ton at the beginning of 2026 to $2,633 per ton by March 3, 2026, due to strengthened policy enforcement in the EU and Asia [5] Group 3: Future Plans and Strategic Focus - The company aims to produce 200,000 tons of bio-jet fuel (SAF) annually, with a product yield of approximately 80% [6] - Future strategies focus on green development, technological innovation, and becoming a leading green energy supplier and bioenergy innovator [6] - The bioenergy sector is identified as a core strategic pillar for the company, emphasizing the growth of biodiesel and bio-jet fuel technology and market promotion [6]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，近日，国家能源局组织召开绿色燃料产业发展专题座谈会。 会议指出了绿色燃料保障能源安全、降低碳排放、促进新能源非电利用与消纳的三大战略目标。同时对 产业发展提出五项要求推动行业健康发展，强调要系统谋划、试点先行、创新引领、优化环境，并坚持 需求引领。中信证券认为，此次座谈会标志绿色燃料产业将逐步由分散的地方探索和企业自发行为，转 向进入由国家层面进行顶层设计和系统性推进的轨道，产业规模化发展可期。建议关注绿氢氨醇等绿色 燃料项目投资运营商。 中信证券主要观点如下： 从能源安全维度看，根据《2025年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望》（王彧嫣，郑志红，韩志强， 2026），2025年我国原油外采度72.7%，天然气外采度为39.7%，而海外油气价格对地缘风险高度敏 感，本轮中东冲突以来油气价格均大幅上涨，凸显出我国能源安全隐患。而绿色燃料的规模化相当于为 工业和交通体系增加"非油气定价"的安全冗余，从根本上降低能源对外依存度，是我国实现能源安全的 重要保障。 从双碳维度看，随着电力侧清洁化持续推进，航空、远洋航运、高温工业过程以及化工合成等"用电无 法直接替代"的终端燃料和原料 ...

Summary of SAF Industry and ST Jiaao Conference Call Industry Overview - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is experiencing price increases driven by seasonal demand recovery, policy support, and oil and gas price fluctuations. Recent prices have risen by approximately $200 to around $2,350 per ton [1][2] - The European HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) spot price is approximately $2,750, indicating a $400 gap with SAF prices, suggesting potential for further SAF price increases [1] - Oil and gas prices serve as the pricing benchmark for SAF in Europe, with recent increases reflecting similar price surges seen during the 2021 Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - Demand recovery is primarily driven by airlines stocking up for the spring travel season, with a significant increase in orders expected from March to May [2][3] - The policy environment, particularly the European RED C legislation, and rising HVO prices are also contributing factors to the price increase [2] - The company has adopted a delayed pricing model, where March shipments correspond to April prices, allowing for greater price flexibility if prices continue to rise [3][7] - Production capacity utilization is expected to remain above 70% once operations stabilize, with no plans for voluntary production cuts due to full order books [3][8] Price Projections - The highest SAF prices in 2026 are expected to be similar to those in 2025, around $2,700 to $2,800, but with a longer duration at high levels compared to 2025 [1][4] - Short-term price fluctuations will be influenced by oil and gas prices, while mid-term trends will be driven by seasonal demand and inventory replenishment [4][5] UCO Procurement and Pricing - UCO (Used Cooking Oil) procurement has shifted to a bidding model, with recent prices rising to approximately 7,500-7,700 CNY per ton (about $1,100) due to HVO demand and SAF production recovery [1][5] - The company emphasizes monitoring changes in oil fat structures and geopolitical developments affecting oil and gas prices [1][5] Production and Capacity - The company aims to achieve a total shipment target for the year despite a slow start due to maintenance in February, with production expected to stabilize in March [1][6] - Monthly production is typically around 33,000 tons, with potential increases to 35,000 tons per month as operational issues from 2025 are addressed [8][9] Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The SAF industry faces stringent safety and quality standards, making it difficult for new entrants to disrupt existing players [18][19] - The company is preparing for potential regulatory changes in the domestic SAF market, focusing on safety and economic viability [12][15] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its production capacity in line with China's carbon neutrality goals, with potential investments in the second phase of production expected to begin in 2026 [15][18] - The demand for bio-naphtha is anticipated to rise, driven by environmental policies and market acceptance, with current prices around $2,150 per ton [9][10] Conclusion - The SAF industry is poised for growth, supported by recovering demand, favorable policies, and strategic pricing models. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends while navigating regulatory challenges and market dynamics.

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 联系人 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 重视"双碳"考核 重点氢能项目总结 ——大能源行业 2026 年第 8 周周报（20260301） 投资要点： 电力：重视"双碳"考核及绿电消纳 "十五五"开局之年，计划与市场转型关键期，重申重视"双碳"考核。从考核看 投资方向，1）存量角度看配额机制，参考发电企业碳配额交易情况看，预计钢铁、 水泥、铝冶炼进入碳市场后，将进一步从"绿色"的角度加快供给侧出清，上述高 耗能企业承担"绿色"转型责任。2）增量角度看绿电需求，考虑到"十五五"期间 考核指标从能耗转为碳排放，有利于高耗能企业增强清洁能源的使用，其中绿证 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company delivered $293 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes, nearly a 30% increase year-over-year [5] - Restricted debt was reduced by more than $220 million, and net recourse leverage improved from 8.2x to 4.9x [5] - The company eliminated its 2026 and 2027 debt maturities, significantly improving its financial durability [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Specialty Products and Solutions segment generated $88.5 million in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter and $291.8 million for the full year, reflecting strong commercial excellence initiatives [16] - Montana Renewables segment had an adjusted EBIT of -$5.4 million for Q4 and positive $31.3 million for the full year, despite challenging market conditions [19] - The Performance Brands segment achieved adjusted EBIT of $5.4 million for the quarter and $47.9 million for the full year, marking the third consecutive year of growth [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Operating costs at Montana Renewables averaged $0.41 per gallon in the second half of the year, a 60% improvement over two years ago [10] - Specialty sales volumes exceeded 20,000 barrels per day during every quarter of the year, indicating strong market demand [9] - The regulatory environment for biofuels is improving, with expectations for a stronger Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) to enhance industry utilization and margins [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to execute the MaxSAF 150 project safely, on time, and on budget, while continuing to improve cost levels and leverage its early mover advantage in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) [23] - The focus remains on driving durable free cash flow and enhancing deleveraging while expanding specialties and executing the MaxSAF 150 strategy [23] - The company is committed to operational excellence and anticipates further opportunities for earnings expansion through reliability gains and customer-focused growth [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate regulatory uncertainties and emphasized the importance of being a low-cost provider [27] - The outlook for the renewable diesel market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for a thoughtful ramp-up in production as the RVO is clarified [36] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining operational efficiency and cost discipline to sustain margins in a volatile market [22] Other Important Information - The company plans capital expenditures of $115 million to $145 million for 2026, primarily due to a heavy turnaround year [15] - The Montana Asphalt segment is expected to continue producing in the $30 million to $50 million EBIT range, supported by improved asphalt margins [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the macro setup and operational level at MaxSAF? - Management acknowledged regulatory uncertainty but emphasized their position as a low-cost provider and the durability added by the MaxSAF project [27][29] Question: What are your views on the RINs market and utilization? - Management noted that the industry is currently running at variable margins and that the return of idle plants will depend on the RVO [33][36] Question: When should we expect capacity ramp-up at full scale for MaxSAF? - Management indicated that they expect to ramp up to the 120-150 million gallon run rate in the second half of the year following the turnaround [44] Question: How does feedstock pricing impact SAF contracts? - Management explained that they have successfully linked feedstock pricing to contracts and have access to a broad range of feedstocks [48] Question: What is enabling the Specialty margin to sustain higher levels? - Management attributed the strong specialty margins to commercial excellence initiatives and improving production reliability [54]

Core Insights - The company reported strong financial results for 2025, with significant growth in revenue, EBITDA, and net profit compared to 2024, driven by the execution of its long-term strategy and expansion of international LNG activities [2][3]. Financial Performance - Group revenue increased by 12% to EUR 105.2 million in 2025 from EUR 93.7 million in 2024 [2]. - EBITDA rose by 10% to EUR 53.5 million in 2025, up from EUR 48.8 million in 2024 [2]. - Net profit grew by 19% to EUR 18.2 million in 2025, compared to EUR 15.4 million in 2024 [2]. Segment Performance - The Liquid Energy Products Terminals segment achieved a net profit increase of 68% to EUR 5.1 million in 2025 [3]. - The Regulated LNG Activities segment reported a net profit of EUR 10.2 million, a 32% increase from 2024 [8]. - The Commercial LNG Activities segment net profit reached EUR 3.4 million in 2025 [10]. Operational Highlights - The Liquid Energy Products Terminals handled nearly 3.6 million tonnes of products in 2025, a 5% increase from 3.4 million tonnes in 2024, with biofuel handling volumes growing by 16% [5]. - The Klaipėda LNG Terminal operated with high efficiency, achieving an average utilization rate of 68% in 2025, significantly above the European average of 52% [6][7]. - The Klaipėda LNG reloading station had a record year, loading over 1.8 thousand LNG trucks and delivering nearly 260 thousand cubic meters of LNG to customers [13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on future energy directions, including hydrogen carriers and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, with significant progress made in the CCS Baltic Consortium [14][15]. - The CCS project secured over EUR 3 million in EU funding for studies and aims to contribute to the EU's climate neutrality objectives for 2050 [15][16].