2026 年 02 月 01 日 基础化工 染料价格涨价兑现，关注 SAF 产业链变 化 事件： ①1 月 28 日，浙江龙盛宣布各类分散染料价格上调 1000-2000 元 /吨不等；据百川盈孚，1 月 29 日，大柴旦乐青科技有限公司年 产 1 万吨 H 酸装置停车检修、大柴旦和信科技有限公司年产 0.5 万吨 H 酸装置停车检修。同日 H 酸市场均价+0.63%（+250 元/吨） 至 4.03 万元/吨）；活性染料市场均价+4.55%（+1000 元/吨）至 2.30 万元/吨。②据百川盈孚，1 月 26 日，SAF 欧洲 FOB 高端价 +1.42%（+30 美元/吨）至 2140 美元/吨。 中间体供应屡遭不可抗力，分散+活性染料涨价兑现 活性染料生产必需 H 酸，环保及安全生产压力大。H 酸是生产活 性、酸性和直接染料的关键中间体原料之一，但由于 H 酸生产过 程中废水难以处理且涉及高危磺化、硝化反应，长期以来行业环 保及安全生产压力较大，较多中小型落后产能陆续淘汰。2025 年 以来，部分企业执行检修计划、H 酸大厂内蒙古乌海市亚东精细 化工厂发生火灾事故，叠加中央第二生态环境保护督察组督察内 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3]. Core Views - The UCO market is characterized by a clear supply-demand logic, with long-term scarcity locked in by fundamentals. The theoretical potential for supply is significant, but actual utilization is limited due to collection and processing challenges [2]. - Demand for UCO is expected to grow significantly due to policy drivers, particularly in the EU, where SAF demand is projected to reach 264 million tons by 2030 and 825 million tons by 2035, translating to UCO demand of approximately 245 million tons and 766 million tons respectively [2]. - The company has reported record high earnings for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 1.386 billion yuan and a net profit of 249 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.17% and 28.89% respectively [2]. - The company is actively responding to changes in overseas policies and has implemented strategies to mitigate risks associated with EU anti-dumping investigations [2]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The price of UCO has seen a slight increase, with the price range for UCO in China reaching 7,500-7,600 yuan per ton, up by approximately 50 yuan per ton week-on-week [1]. - The average spot price for UCO-based HVO recorded 2,642.55 USD per ton, reflecting a 1.90% increase [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.932 billion, 2.222 billion, and 2.562 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 289 million, 357 million, and 437 million yuan [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.20, 1.48, and 1.81 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]. Production Capacity - The company has a current raw material capacity of approximately 50,000 tons per year and is expected to enhance UCO production capacity through various projects in major cities [5]. - The Beijing Tongzhou project is anticipated to be operational by the second half of 2026, with a designed processing capacity of 2,100 tons per day [5].

UCO是HEFA路线生产HVO/SAF的优质原料，碳减排幅度可达80%+，优于棕榈油等植物油，获欧盟REDIII、 ReFuelEU等政策优先支持。 需求增长 + 供给受限➡UCO价格中枢系统性上移确定性高，相比山高环能，【朗坤科技】前期未受市场重视， 建议提高关注 政策刚性需求共振，拉动UCO需求与价值重估，长期供给稀缺性凸显。 【朗坤】相比于山高关注度较低，可能主要由于山高业务纯，并购带来的产能增长预期更强，但我们认为【朗 坤】亦有其优势： 公司项目聚焦一线城市，存量餐厨项目规模3911吨/日，手握5个千吨级项目布局粤港澳、京津冀、长三角，需求 与支付能力稳定，业务根基稳健。 26-27年通州、房山项目落地将实现餐厨处理产能翻倍至6761吨/日，UCO产量随项目投产+存量挖潜有望从5万吨 增至30万吨（自产10渠道整合20），内生增长确定性强。 截至1月23日【朗坤】PEttm24倍，【山高】PEttm59倍。 当前UCO景气度明确，叠加公司量增BOT工程确认，预计26年净利润4亿+，对应PE不足15倍。 长期若自产UCO量达10万吨，在不考虑HMOs贡献的情况下，若UCO价格升至9000元/吨，预计净利 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The non-electric decarbonization sector is crucial, accounting for approximately 60% of global carbon emissions, with traditional clean energy methods proving insufficient for effective carbon reduction [1][3] - China is positioned to become the world's factory for the non-electric decarbonization industry, leveraging strong chemical engineering capabilities and low-cost renewable energy equipment manufacturing [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The Chinese government's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes mandatory assessments of non-electric consumption, with hydrogen energy identified as a strategic growth point [1][7] - The demand for green hydrogen is expected to be substantial, with equipment needs projected to exceed 100 GW [1][10] - The cost of green hydrogen is decreasing, primarily due to a 20%-30% annual reduction in electrolyzer costs and optimization of electricity costs [1][12] - Investment strategies in non-electric decarbonization include green ammonia, green alcohol, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with SAF showing high short-term certainty and significant long-term opportunities [1][18] Market Dynamics - Biomass energy, green hydrogen, and related core equipment and technology are key investment opportunities in the non-electric decarbonization field [2] - The aviation sector's SAF is projected to reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by 80%, with EU regulations mandating its use in the coming years [17] - The shipping industry is increasingly focused on green methanol, driven by EU regulations and the need for compliance with carbon market quotas [13] Emerging Trends and Challenges - The non-electric sector faces unique challenges in decarbonization due to its limited association with electricity, necessitating advanced renewable technologies and policy support [3][4] - The green hydrogen market is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential as policies evolve and technology advances [8][11] Policy Impact - Policies are a critical driver for the non-electric decarbonization industry, with both China and the EU implementing regulations to support green fuel usage [7][9] - The EU's legal framework for green fuel usage is expected to create historical opportunities for related industries [7] Investment Strategy and Portfolio Management - The investment strategy focuses on high-margin companies with safety margins, adjusting based on industry acceleration [18][21] - Current portfolio allocation includes 40% in green hydrogen equipment, 40% in green methanol, and 20% in the SAF sector, aligning with industry growth trajectories [20] Long-term Outlook - The hydrogen industry chain has the potential for significant growth, contingent on clear policy support and cost reductions [11] - The market for green methanol is expected to expand beyond shipping into chemical applications, with substantial demand projected [14][15] Risk Management - Risk management strategies involve selecting undervalued stocks during uncertain trends and concentrating on high-elasticity core stocks when trends are clear [24]

Core Insights - The biodiesel industry is positioned at the intersection of "global green demand expansion" and "China's unique resource endowment," with short-term performance supported by export demand and long-term market potential driven by domestic policies [1] - Biodiesel, as an environmentally friendly energy source, is expected to benefit from both policy and demand incentives amid the global carbon neutrality trend [1] - The industry is transitioning from first-generation FAME to second-generation HVO biodiesel, which offers superior performance and carbon reduction benefits, making it a key choice for high-end sectors like transportation and aviation [2] Industry Growth and Demand - The global biodiesel market is experiencing continuous growth, driven primarily by mandatory blending policies in developed markets like the EU and the US [3] - The EU aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the transport sector to 29% by 2030, while the US RFS plan is set to promote ongoing growth in biofuel consumption [3] - From 2009 to 2023, global biodiesel consumption grew at a CAGR of approximately 10.34%, with projections of 5.71% CAGR from 2024 to 2027; HVO consumption is expected to grow even faster at an average annual rate of 16.38% from 2024 to 2028 [3] Supply Dynamics - Global biodiesel production is steadily increasing, with a CAGR of about 8.08% from 2012 to 2025, primarily in the EU and the US [4] - Southeast Asia, South America, and China are expected to gradually reshape the biodiesel supply landscape due to their raw material advantages [4] - Southeast Asian countries benefit from palm oil production, while South America leverages low-cost raw materials and compatibility with RFS; China utilizes waste cooking oil to achieve carbon reduction [4] Trade Patterns - The global biodiesel trade is shifting from "cost basins" to "policy highlands," reflecting a complex network influenced by resource endowments and policy compliance [5] - Current trade routes include Southeast Asia exporting low-cost raw materials to Europe, South America supplying the US with soybean oil products, and China primarily exporting to the EU [5] China's Market Landscape - China's biodiesel market is currently export-driven, with domestic demand poised for growth due to policy catalysts [6] - In 2024, China's biodiesel production capacity is expected to exceed 5 million tons per year, with an estimated output of 3.035 million tons, while consumption is only 867,000 tons [6] - The export volume to the EU is projected to decline by 75.41% in 2024 due to anti-dumping policies, prompting a shift towards SAF transformation and domestic market expansion [7] Industry Barriers - The core barriers in the biodiesel industry are centered around raw material control, technological breakthroughs, and economies of scale [8] - Companies with stable waste cooking oil recovery networks can establish cost advantages, while HVO/SAF production involves complex processes that require advanced technology [8] - Large-scale facilities can spread fixed costs, with leading global companies having HVO capacities exceeding 500,000 tons per year, and domestic firms accelerating expansion [8]

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring between Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Corporation aims to streamline the aviation fuel supply chain from upstream production to downstream refueling, accelerating the industrialization of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in China, which is expected to benefit domestic biodiesel producers [1][4]. Group 1: Restructuring Details - Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Corporation are undergoing a restructuring approved by the State Council, marking a significant move in the integration of state-owned enterprises [2]. - This merger combines the strengths of Sinopec, the world's largest refining company, and China National Aviation Fuel, Asia's largest aviation fuel service provider, enhancing the competitiveness of China's aviation fuel industry [3]. Group 2: SAF Market Dynamics - The global demand for SAF is increasing, driven by regulations such as the EU's ReFuelEU, which mandates that by 2025, 2% of aviation fuel used at EU airports must be SAF, with targets of 6%, 20%, and 70% by 2030, 2035, and 2050 respectively [5]. - In China, a pilot program for SAF blending will begin in March 2025, with an estimated annual SAF blending volume of 32,000 tons from four major airports, contributing to the growing domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The rising demand and prices for SAF are expected to tighten the supply of raw materials, particularly waste oils, which have a theoretical annual production capacity of 12 million tons in China, with current collection at about 5 million tons [6]. - As the SAF industry accelerates, the focus of supply chain challenges will shift from SAF availability to raw material supply, prompting a comprehensive recommendation for investment in the waste oil-SAF full industry chain [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the environmental and public utility sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases for second and third-generation biodiesel (HVO and SAF) in 2025, with HVO reaching a peak of $2853.38 per ton and SAF at $2900.95 per ton, reflecting increases of 69.2% and 69.1% from their lowest points respectively [1][17] - The demand for SAF is driven by the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which mandates a gradual increase in SAF content in aviation fuel, leading to an estimated demand increase of approximately 1.4 million tons in 2025 [1][19] - The report emphasizes the scarcity of used cooking oil (UCO) as a raw material for HVO and SAF, suggesting that companies with waste oil resources and production capacity should be closely monitored [3][39] Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The report discusses the upward trend in biodiesel prices due to downstream demand, particularly for SAF and HVO, with significant price increases observed in 2025 [1][17] - It notes that multiple countries are implementing policies to increase biodiesel blending ratios, with global biodiesel consumption expected to exceed 75.77 million tons by 2030 [2][25] - UCO is identified as a critical raw material with limited supply, highlighting the need to focus on companies that can efficiently utilize waste oil resources [3][39] 2. Market Review - The report provides a market performance overview, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.06% from December 26 to January 9, with various sector performances detailed [4][42] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report outlines recent legislative progress in the EU regarding renewable energy, particularly the RED III directive, which aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the EU's energy consumption to 42.5% by 2030 [19][20] - It highlights the growing demand for advanced biofuels and the expected increase in biodiesel consumption in developing countries, which may take over as the main growth area for biofuels [2][23] 4. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong capabilities in waste oil production and technology, such as Shanhigh Environmental, Longkun Technology, and Zhuoyue New Energy, due to the anticipated growth in SAF and HVO demand [3][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Views - The sulfur price is experiencing fluctuations due to supply-demand dynamics, with a short-term supply guarantee not fundamentally altering the long-term tight resource situation. The expected global sulfur supply-demand gap for 2026 is projected to be -5.13 million tons, indicating a strategic revaluation of sulfur resources in the long term [2][16] - The recent restructuring between Sinopec and China Aviation Oil is expected to enhance the integration of oil refining and distribution, potentially accelerating the commercial use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in China [3][7] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights of the Week - The market is witnessing a rebound in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $63.05 per barrel, reflecting a 3.7% increase. This is driven by geopolitical tensions affecting supply expectations [14] - The chemical sector is gaining attention due to a better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) recovery, indicating potential for upward valuation in the sector [15] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 3.7% in the week, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext [21] - Among 26 sub-sectors, 25 experienced gains, with the top performers being modified plastics (+9.5%) and inorganic salts (+7.2%) [26] 3. Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - In the basic chemical sector, 373 out of 424 stocks rose, with notable gainers including Prit (42.6%) and Sanfu (32.3%). Conversely, stocks like Evergrande High-Tech saw declines of 13.1% [28][29] 4. Investment Focus Areas - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: 1. Upstream resource assets with strong profit certainty, particularly in phosphorus and sulfur [16] 2. Supply-side optimization under "anti-involution" policies, targeting sectors with high concentration and price elasticity [17] 3. Low-valued leading stocks in the sector, as capital expenditure cycles slow down [18] 4. New productivity investments aligned with green energy and advanced materials [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the merger between Sinopec and China Aviation Oil aims to enhance technological research and development, industrialization capabilities, and supply chain efficiency in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) sector, promoting high-quality development in the aviation industry and facilitating the transition from demonstration flights to large-scale commercial use of SAF in China [1][2] Group 2 - The merger is aligned with recent state-owned enterprise reforms focusing on core responsibilities and enhancing competitiveness through integration, aiming to optimize state capital allocation and avoid homogenized competition [2] - China Aviation Oil, as Asia's largest integrated aviation fuel service provider, and Sinopec, the world's largest refining company, will create a more robust supply chain and competitive advantage by merging their operations [2] Group 3 - The strategic significance of the merger lies in the strong recovery momentum of the aviation industry, with global jet fuel demand projected to reach 389 million tons by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and China's jet fuel consumption expected to grow from 39.28 million tons in 2024 to 75 million tons by 2040 [3] - The merger will allow Sinopec to establish a complete "refining-distribution" integration from crude oil refining to aircraft refueling, while China Aviation Oil will benefit from a more stable upstream supply, thus reducing costs and enhancing energy security for China's aviation sector [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the merger between Sinopec Group and China National Aviation Fuel Group, which is expected to enhance the resilience of the aviation fuel supply chain and ensure energy security for the aviation industry in China [1][2] - According to S&P, China's aviation fuel consumption is projected to grow from 39.28 million tons in 2024 to 75 million tons by 2040, indicating a significant increase in demand [1] - The merger will leverage the integrated refining and aviation fuel supply chain advantages, reducing intermediate links and lowering supply costs, thereby providing strong support for energy security in the aviation sector [1][2] Group 2 - The restructuring will closely link refining and distribution, forming a vertically integrated supply chain that reduces intermediate costs and enhances market responsiveness and service quality [2] - Sinopec's acquisition of China National Aviation Fuel will enable a complete chain from crude oil refining to aircraft refueling, significantly strengthening its market position in the aviation fuel supply market [2] - The merger aligns with recent state-owned enterprise reforms aimed at enhancing core competitiveness through integration, focusing on optimizing state capital layout and avoiding homogeneous competition [2] Group 3 - As of January 8, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index rose by 0.61%, with significant increases in stocks such as Lanstone Heavy Industry (up 9.97%) and China Merchants Energy (up 6.55%) [3] - The oil and gas ETF reached a new high of 270 million yuan, closely tracking the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, which reflects the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector [4]