证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 09 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年10月09日 华源晨会精粹 20251009 固定收益 银行优先股：且配且珍惜——规模、条款设计与投资策略：银行优先股在 优先股市场中占据主导地位。商业银行优先股试点自 2014 年正式启动，是我国银行 业资本工具创新的重要里程碑。截至 2025 年 9 月 16 日，共有存续优先股 31 只， 总规模 7058.75 亿元，其中银行优先股 28 只，存续总规模 7011.50 亿元。银行为银 行优先股重要持有人。国有大行优先股二级成交规模较大，政策推动永续债发行使 优先股市场活跃度下降。当前对银行优先股的投资，应在充分考虑"赎回风险"前 提下采取防御型策略。在利率下行环境中，银行主动赎回优先股的动力较强。其中 固定溢价较高的优先股，因其未来付息成本较高，银行赎回旧券、重新低息融资的 动力较强烈，易遭遇"价值毁灭"，需重点警惕该风险。相反，固定溢价较低的优 先股，其股息支付压力相对较小，即使利率下行，银行主动赎回的动力也相对有限， 安全性更高。因此，建议采用防御型投资策略， ...

国信证券近日发布2025年石化化工行业10月投资策略：《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025-2026年)》的出台，旨在引导这一国民经济支柱产业在保持合理增速的同时，实现高质 量发展，其核心可概括为"稳增长、调结构、促创新"。方案明确要求2025-2026年，行业增 加值年均增长5%以上，并追求经济效益回升、创新能力增强等质的提升。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 石化化工行业2025年10月投资观点： 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》的出台，旨在引导这一国民经济支柱产 业在保持合理增速的同时，实现高质量发展，其核心可概括为"稳增长、调结构、促创新"。 方案明确要求2025-2026年，行业增加值年均增长5%以上，并追求经济效益回升、创新能力 增强等质的提升。 该方案有望推动落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展。化工行业老旧产能的淘汰工作具体 实施后有望引领行业供给侧逐渐优化，同时推动我国化工行业设备更新、增强化工装置整体 竞争力。方案指出加强重大石化、现代煤化工项目规划布局引导，严控新增炼油产能，合理 确定乙烯、对二甲苯新增产能规模和投放节奏，防范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险。这意味着 未来炼 ...

Core Insights - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to guide this pillar industry of the national economy to maintain reasonable growth while achieving high-quality development, focusing on "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting innovation" [1][17][18] - The plan sets a target for an average annual growth of over 5% in industry value added from 2025 to 2026, while also pursuing improvements in economic efficiency and innovation capabilities [1][17] Industry Analysis Petrochemical Industry - The plan is expected to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and lead to healthier industry development, optimizing the supply side of the chemical industry [2][18] - The plan emphasizes the need to strengthen the planning and layout of major petrochemical and modern coal chemical projects, strictly control new refining capacity, and reasonably determine the scale and pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity [2][18] Fertilizer Industry - The plan aims to strengthen raw material supply security and stabilize production foundations for the fertilizer industry, requiring long-term agreements with suppliers of coal, phosphate rock, and natural gas [19] - The plan also encourages the optimization of product structure and the development of new fertilizers [19] Chemical Products Pricing - As of September 28, 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3969 points, down 8.4% from January 2, 2025 [20] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 49.4%, indicating limited improvement in the economic environment, with the production index at 50.8% [20] Investment Recommendations Potash Fertilizer - The global potash fertilizer industry is characterized by oligopoly, with a tight supply-demand balance, and prices are expected to remain high [21] - The company "Yaqi International" is highlighted for its significant potash resources and ongoing capacity expansion, with a projected production capacity of 5 million tons by 2025 [21] Pesticides - The pesticide industry is expected to see a recovery in prices due to increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the US [22] - "Lier Chemical" is recommended as a leading company in the chlorinated pyridine herbicide and glyphosate sectors [22] Fluorochemicals - The fluorochemical sector is anticipated to benefit from the implementation of quota systems for refrigerants starting in 2024, with a focus on the long-term price increase of refrigerants [23] - Companies such as "Juhua Co., Ltd." and "Dongyue Group" are recommended for their strong market positions in refrigerants and fluorinated liquids [23] Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - The European Union's mandatory addition of 2% SAF in 2025 is expected to drive up prices for bio-jet fuel products, with "Zhuoyue New Energy" recommended for its competitive advantages in production capacity [24][9]

Core Viewpoint - Global Bioenergies has entered a receivership procedure aimed at evaluating and implementing solutions to continue operations and maintain jobs, primarily through a sale plan [2][4]. Group 1: Receivership Procedure - The Evry Commercial Court has appointed SCP Abitbol & Rousselet as the administrator for Global Bioenergies [2]. - This procedure follows a pre-pack sale process initiated on June 3, 2025 [2]. - Four offers to take over part of the assets have been submitted to the court, with the possibility of changes and conditions that need to be met before the review hearing [3]. Group 2: Potential Outcomes - If certain assets or activities are taken over, or if no final offer is made, judicial liquidation proceedings will commence [4]. - The judicial liquidation is expected to lead to the delisting of Global Bioenergies' shares, with a likely residual value of zero due to anticipated asset sale proceeds being lower than liabilities [5]. - A hearing to review the takeover offers is scheduled for November 3, 2025 [5]. Group 3: Company Background - Global Bioenergies focuses on producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and e-SAF from renewable resources, contributing to the decarbonization of air transport [6]. - The company's technology is certified by ASTM and meets high standards in the cosmetics industry, with L'Oréal being the largest shareholder at 13.5% [6]. - Global Bioenergies is listed on Euronext Growth in Paris under the code FR0011052257 - ALGBE [6].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is experiencing a price increase due to reduced overseas supply and strong global demand, with EU and China SAF FOB prices rising by 46% and 33% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [5] - The domestic SAF market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by favorable demand and limited overseas supply, with the potential for Chinese SAF products to gain market share due to their low-carbon attributes [6] Summary by Sections SAF Price Trends - As of September 24, 2025, EU and China SAF FOB prices are $2,705 and $2,400 per ton respectively, marking increases of 46% and 33% since the start of 2025 [5] - The price of waste cooking oil (UCO) is 7,400 RMB per ton, reflecting a 15% increase since the beginning of 2025 [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent supply constraints include Shell's decision to halt the construction of a large biofuel plant and NESTE's scheduled maintenance for its facilities, which will reduce SAF supply [5] - Demand is bolstered by EU's financial support for SAF procurement and Singapore's plans to implement SAF tax incentives [5] Competitive Landscape - The EU's imposition of anti-dumping duties on US SAF products enhances the competitiveness of Chinese SAF products, as China has not yet established clear subsidy policies for its SAF industry [6] - The potential for more Chinese SAF companies to enter the export whitelist is anticipated, further strengthening the market position of domestic SAF products [6] Beneficiary Companies - Beneficiary companies identified include Jiaao Environmental Protection, Shanggou Environmental Energy, Zhuoyue New Energy, Haineng Science and Technology, and Pengyao Environmental Protection [7]

中信证券研报表示，欧洲SAF价格持续上涨，目前已突破2700美金/吨。欧洲提出高额补贴计划，强制 添加政策的执行力度或加强，预计SAF需求将爆发。在2025年上半年欧洲SAF-HVO价格倒挂，国内新 增供给和出口许可证审批进度不及预期，近期国内外主要SAF工厂密集检修等多因素共同作用下，SAF 供应紧张局面或将延续。在SAF的产业化趋势逐渐明确的背景下，建议关注行业内主要玩家。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月24日，中信证券研报表示，欧洲SAF价格持续上涨，目前已突破2700美金/吨。欧洲提 出高额补贴计划，强制添加政策的执行力度或加强，预计SAF需求将爆发。在2025年上半年欧洲SAF- HVO价格倒挂，国内新增供给和出口许可证审批进度不及预期，近期国内外主要SAF工厂密集检修等多 因素共同作用下，SAF供应紧张局面或将延续。在SAF的产业化趋势逐渐明确的背景下，建议关注行业 内主要玩家。 ...

Investment Highlights - The report highlights significant acceleration in national subsidies recovery for the environmental sector in July-August 2025, with Everbright receiving 2.064 billion yuan, surpassing the 1.534 billion yuan received in the same period of 2024 [1][4] - The solid waste sector has shown improvements in return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, with a 1% increase in revenue and an 8% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [5][6] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hanlan Environment, Green Power, and Everbright Environment, among others [2] Solid Waste Sector Insights - The solid waste sector's performance in the first half of 2025 includes a 9% increase in operating cash flow, reaching 6.9 billion yuan, and a 24% increase in free cash flow compared to the first half of 2024 [5][6] - The average waste incineration companies saw a 1.8% increase in tonnage output and a 1.2% increase in grid-connected output in the first half of 2025 [5][6] - Companies are expanding their operations and improving efficiency, with notable increases in heating supply rates for several firms [5][6] Water Sector Analysis - The water sector is expected to experience a cash flow turnaround, with a projected increase in free cash flow for companies like Xingrong and Shouchuang starting in 2026 [6] - Price reforms in water services are anticipated to enhance growth and valuation, with recent price adjustments in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [6] Sanitation Sector Developments - The penetration rate of electric sanitation vehicles is accelerating, with a 77.6% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in the first seven months of 2025 [7][8] - The report notes a significant rise in the number of automated sanitation projects, indicating a growing trend towards automation in the sector [7][8] Industry Tracking - The report tracks the performance of various sectors, including the increase in sales of sanitation vehicles and the profitability of biodiesel production, with a notable rise in the price of used cooking oil [8] - Lithium battery recycling is also highlighted, with improvements in profitability due to changes in pricing for lithium and cobalt [8]

韩国多套 POE 装置计划检修，国内首个 SAF 产业专项政策发布 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-09-04 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 2/24 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 [Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1.韩国拟削减 25%石脑油产能，六部门部署 规范光伏产业竞争秩序 20250822 2.中美"关税休战"再延长，1880 亿设备更新 补助资金下达 20250815 3.绿色液体燃料首批试点项目公式，制冷剂 价格涨势延续 20250808 4."反内卷"再催化，农药行业开启三年" ...

Core Insights - The price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has increased by over 15% year-on-year, with the current price at $2600.54 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.06% [1][2] - The price of Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) has decreased slightly by 0.24% week-on-week, currently priced at 2320.25 yuan per ton [1][2] - European UCOME prices have risen by 0.63% week-on-week, now at €1295.06 per ton, while Chinese UCOME prices remain stable at $1170.20 per ton [1][2] - Southeast Asian biodiesel prices have increased by 0.44% week-on-week, currently at $1176.25 per ton [1][2] Industry Dynamics - SAF prices have seen a significant increase, with European HVO prices also rising slightly. The current FOB FARAG price for SAF is $2574.25 per ton, indicating a positive trading atmosphere among Central European SAF traders [3] - Ireland has announced a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development Roadmap, aiming for a mandatory SAF supply ratio of 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 20% by 2035 [3] - Malaysia plans to start producing SAF by the end of 2025 and is revising its National Biofuel Policy to include SAF as a strategic component [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The global biodiesel market is expected to see growth due to the demand for bio-jet fuel and bio-marine fuel, alongside the cancellation of export VAT refunds for raw materials [4] - Companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, Shanggou Environmental Energy, Haineng Science and Technology, and Langkun Environment, are recommended for attention [4]