[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 26 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 51% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《东方铁塔（002545.SZ）：从东 方铁塔到东方资源》，2025.8.21 2.《反内卷，化工慢牛的宏大叙事》， 2025.8.20 3.《民航局发布碳足迹核算标准， SAF 、 UCO 价格继续上升》， 2025.8.18 4.《关注新疆板块投资机遇》， 2025.8.11 5.《供应缩量&外需强劲，甲酸价格 快速上行》，2025.8.7 金九银十！SAF、UCO 持续上涨，关 注有机硅协同反弹机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周基础化工板块表现差于大盘。根据 Wind，本周（8/15-8/22）上证综指涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong and mainland gas companies are experiencing stable gas sales, but growth in mainland city gas sales is slowing down, with potential for price margin recovery diminishing. The company maintains a clear dividend policy and has growth potential in renewable and green energy sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Hong Kong Gas Performance - Hong Kong China Gas reported 1H25 revenue of HKD 27.5 billion, flat year-on-year; core profit was HKD 3.08 billion, down 3% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.96 billion, also down 3% year-on-year [1]. - Gas sales in Hong Kong remained stable at 14,935 TJ in 1H25, with residential gas volume up 2.5% due to a 0.8°C decrease in average temperature; commercial gas volume decreased by 2.3% due to changes in tourism patterns [1]. - The company expects gas sales in Hong Kong to remain flat in 2025, benefiting from a well-established pricing mechanism, with an anticipated EBITDA margin of around 52% [1]. Group 2: Mainland City Gas Performance - The company’s city gas sales volume reached 18.58 billion cubic meters in 1H25, essentially flat year-on-year; industrial gas volume remained stable, while commercial gas volume decreased due to warm winter effects [2]. - The city gas price margin was CNY 0.54 per cubic meter in 1H25, up 0.04 CNY year-on-year; the cost of gas purchase decreased by CNY 0.06 per cubic meter due to optimized self-sourced gas [2]. - The company anticipates that the price margin recovery will converge to CNY 0.02 per cubic meter in 2025, despite an expected expansion in pricing mechanisms [2]. Group 3: Renewable and Green Energy Potential - The company’s renewable energy business net profit reached HKD 116 million in 1H25, up 6% year-on-year; the shift towards a light-asset strategy is expected to drive growth in carbon services and asset management sales from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - The green energy business, including green methanol and SAF, is solidifying its production capacity, with a collaboration on green methanol with Fuan Energy and a SAF plant in Malaysia expected to begin trial production in September [2]. Group 4: Financial Adjustments and Target Price - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 6.03 billion, HKD 6.46 billion, and HKD 6.79 billion, reflecting a three-year CAGR of 6% [2]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 7.63, up from HKD 7.04, based on a 2.5x PB for 2025, considering the potential of renewable energy and green fuel business [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 19.1%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.8 percentage points [6][17]. - New carbon footprint accounting standards for aviation fuel are expected to enhance the market's operational standards and promote the growth of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) [29][30]. - SAF and Used Cooking Oil (UCO) prices are on the rise, indicating a potential phase of simultaneous volume and price increases [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the basic chemical sector is entering a new long-term growth cycle, driven by policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics [14]. - Key investment themes include focusing on core assets, supply constraints, and sectors with upward demand certainty [15][16]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 2.5% during the week of August 8-15, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.8 percentage points [17]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 19.1%, indicating strong performance relative to broader market indices [17]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 235 stocks rose while 181 fell during the week [24]. - The top-performing stocks included Yangfan New Materials (+23.0%) and Kaimete Gas (+22.5%) [25]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report discusses the release of new carbon footprint accounting standards for aviation fuel, which will take effect on September 1, 2025 [28]. - Several companies reported their financial results, with notable increases in revenue and profit for some, such as Longqing Co. and Chuanjin No. [31][34]. 5. Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) recorded a decrease of 0.7% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in chemical product prices [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's total exports of HVO and SAF reached 338,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.06%, with domestic SAF export channels successfully opened [2][6]. - Biodiesel exports fell to 381,000 tons, a decrease of 42.4% year-on-year, primarily due to anti-dumping tariffs [7][17]. - UCO exports totaled 1,262,000 tons, down 10.5% year-on-year, with Singapore replacing the U.S. as the largest export destination [8][31]. - The report suggests monitoring overseas policies and demand changes, anticipating more supportive domestic policies to be implemented [9][43]. Summary by Sections SAF & HVO - In H1 2025, China's SAF export channels were successfully opened, with a total export volume of 338,400 tons, marking an 8.06% increase year-on-year. Jiangsu Province exported 14,900 tons of SAF to Belgium and Spain in June, likely from the Jiaao Environmental Lianyungang factory [6][16]. - Domestic SAF exports require approval from four government departments, and Jiaao Environmental received a license for 372,400 tons of bio-jet fuel, indicating a positive trend for future SAF exports [6][16]. Biodiesel - Biodiesel exports in H1 2025 were 381,000 tons, down 42.4% year-on-year, mainly due to anti-dumping tariffs imposed by the EU [7][17]. - Major export partners included Malaysia (141,000 tons), Singapore (98,700 tons), and the Netherlands (70,000 tons), with significant increases in exports to Malaysia and Singapore, likely for blending with marine fuel [7][22]. - The average export price for biodiesel was $1,103 per ton, a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, while total export value dropped by 40.6% to $3.02 billion [17]. UCO - UCO exports in H1 2025 were 1,262,000 tons, a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year, attributed to increased domestic SAF production and the cancellation of export tax rebates [8][29]. - The average export price for UCO was $1,048 per ton, up 17.9% year-on-year, driven by the EU's mandatory blending policy for SAF [8][29]. - Singapore became the largest export destination for UCO, with exports to the U.S. declining significantly due to high tariffs [31][35]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to track overseas policy changes and anticipates more domestic supportive policies to be implemented [9][43]. - The U.S. market faces significant uncertainty due to fluctuating tariff policies, while the EU's blending ratio requirements for SAF are expected to boost China's SAF industry [43]. - In Singapore, the demand for clean alternative fuels is projected to increase due to new carbon quota regulations for the shipping industry [43]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is viewed positively due to its reliance on waste oils as raw materials, with several companies producing qualified SAF and obtaining airworthiness certification. The report recommends focusing on raw material suppliers and processing companies like Zhuoyue New Energy [9][47].

Group 1 - Sustainable fuels are a global hotspot, with China's National Energy Administration launching initiatives for green liquid fuel technology and industrialization trials, focusing on SAF, sustainable diesel, bioethanol, green methanol, and green ammonia [2] - The first batch of pilot projects includes nine companies working on fuel ethanol, green methanol, and green ammonia, with notable projects such as 30,000 tons of cellulose fuel ethanol by Guotou Bio and 500,000 tons of green methanol by Goldwind Green Energy [2] - Internationally, companies like LG Chem and Mitsubishi Chemical are also making significant moves in sustainable fuel technologies [3] Group 2 - Mitsubishi Chemical's venture capital arm, Diamond Edge Ventures, invested in Licella Holdings, which specializes in advanced recycling and renewable fuel technologies [4] - Licella's technology can produce SAF, bio-crude oil, and renewable diesel from lignocellulosic waste using supercritical water [5] - Mitsubishi Chemical aims to expand its chemical recycling facilities and diversify raw materials as part of its "KAITEKI Vision 35" [6] Group 3 - LG Chem's subsidiary, LG-Eni BioRefining, has begun construction of South Korea's first HVO plant, expected to produce 300,000 tons annually by 2027 [7] - HVO is a new generation bio-oil made from waste cooking oils and can be used for SAF, biodiesel, and bio-naphtha production [8] - LG Chem plans to increase the proportion of bio-naphtha in its BCB products, which are certified by ISCC PLUS for environmental sustainability [9] Group 4 - The fourth Synthetic Biology and Green Bio-Manufacturing Conference (SynBioCon 2025) will be held in Ningbo, Zhejiang, focusing on AI in bio-manufacturing, green chemicals, new materials, future food, and agriculture [12] - The conference aims to explore trends in bio-manufacturing during the 14th Five-Year Plan and promote technology transfer and talent acquisition [12][20] - Various activities, including forums and workshops, will take place during the conference to facilitate discussions on innovations in the bio-manufacturing sector [12][29]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-value utilization of carbon dioxide as a significant approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote green low-carbon development, highlighting the upcoming 2025 Liquid Sunshine Industry Development Forum as a platform for sharing advancements in this field [2]. Group 1: Forum Organization and Structure - The forum is organized by DT New Energy, supported by the Green Methanol Ecological Alliance and Geely Holding Group, and hosted by Ningbo Detaizhong Research Information Technology Co., Ltd [3]. - The forum will take place from September 24 to 26, 2025, in Dalian, Liaoning, with specific requirements for report submissions, including evaluations and qualifications for presenters [3][4]. Group 2: Topics and Discussions - The forum will feature ten reports focusing on cutting-edge technologies related to carbon dioxide high-value utilization, including catalytic conversion, electrochemical reduction, and the production of green fuels and high-performance materials [6][12]. - Key discussion topics will include advancements in carbon dioxide capture technologies, methanol production catalysts, and the integration of biomass gasification with green hydrogen for methanol production [8][12]. Group 3: Networking and Collaboration Opportunities - Participants will have opportunities to engage with leading experts in the field, facilitating face-to-face communication with relevant enterprises [10]. - The forum aims to create a platform for precise matching between green methanol project providers and international demand, promoting the export of green methanol products and fostering international cooperation [14]. Group 4: Previous Forum Success - The previous four editions of the Liquid Sunshine Industry Development Forum have attracted over 1,500 industry representatives and nearly 100 authoritative experts, showcasing the forum's influence and commitment to advancing the liquid sunshine technology sector [18].

Group 1 - Gevo, Inc. will host a conference call on August 11, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. ET to report its financial results for Q2 2025 [1] - Participants can register for the live call through a provided weblink and will receive a dial-in number and pin after registration [1] - A webcast replay of the conference call will be available two hours after it ends, accessible in the Investor Relations section of Gevo's website [2] Group 2 - Gevo is a diversified energy company focused on producing cost-effective, drop-in fuels that enhance energy security and support rural economic growth [3] - The company operates one of the largest dairy-based renewable natural gas facilities in the U.S. and an ethanol plant with a carbon capture and sequestration facility [3] - Gevo owns the world's first production facility for specialty alcohol-to-jet fuels and employs a market-driven approach to ensure value delivery to local economies [3]

Group 1 - The company Global Bioenergies has received four preliminary offers for the takeover of some activities and assets as part of a pre-pack sale process initiated on June 3, 2025 [3][4]. - No proposals have been submitted for the takeover of shares, which will become worthless upon the company's liquidation following the potential asset sale [4][5]. - The offers are still in a preliminary stage and may change, with conditions that must be met before the review hearing, which is expected to occur in September or October 2025 [5]. Group 2 - Global Bioenergies is focused on combating global warming by developing a unique process to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and e-SAF from renewable resources, addressing the decarbonization of air transport [6]. - The company's technology is one of the few certified by ASTM, and its products also meet high standards in the cosmetics industry, with L'Oréal being the largest shareholder, holding a 13.5% stake [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for metals silicon, PBAT, and valine, indicating a positive outlook for these materials in the chemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector outperformed the broader market and the basic chemical sector, with a weekly change of 1.37% for the new materials index compared to 1.17% for the basic chemical index and 1.09% for the CSI 300 index [8]. - Price increases were noted for metals silicon (+3.16%), PBAT (+0.51%), and valine (+0.35%), while significant declines were observed in electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide (-3.86%), 6F (-1.01%), and epoxy resin (-0.88%) [8][21]. - The report highlights the importance of the new materials sector, particularly in semiconductor materials, which showed significant gains [8][25]. Industry Updates - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting with photovoltaic companies to address low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity, aiming for sustainable development in the solar industry [9]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has led to a recovery in trade inquiries and shipping prices, positively impacting chemical prices [10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the new materials sector, particularly in areas that require domestic production capabilities and have been historically reliant on imports [11]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stood at 73.06, reflecting a decrease of 0.22% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 25.03% [17]. - The industry inventory percentile is at 91.12%, indicating a high level of stock relative to the past five years [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [7][19]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in its financial performance, with a forecasted net profit of 0.4-0.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 214.28%-228.56% year-on-year [1][2]. - The increase in demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is driving up the price of Used Cooking Oil (UCO), which is a key raw material for the company [3][4]. - The company has a strong order book, with many well-known domestic and international biofuel companies inquiring about orders, indicating robust market demand [4]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 0.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222.23%. The projected net profit for Q2 2025 is estimated to be between 0.12-0.17 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 0.44 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.11 billion yuan, 16.51 billion yuan, and 18.88 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of -2.62%, 17%, and 14.36% [4][6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 1.00 billion yuan, with significant growth rates of 668.27%, 57.94%, and 39.45% for the following years [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The demand for SAF is expected to increase significantly due to new regulations in the EU and UK, which will require a 2% blending of SAF starting January 2025, potentially leading to an additional demand of approximately 1.8 million tons of UCO [3]. - The Chinese government is actively supporting the development of biofuels, which is expected to further boost domestic SAF demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4].