Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed strong performance last week, with major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.82%, 0.84%, and 0.96% respectively [1] - Investor optimism was fueled by advancements in Artificial Intelligence and expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite a partial government shutdown creating uncertainties [1] Consumer Confidence and Labor Market - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for September dropped by 3.6 points to 94.2, marking its lowest level since April, attributed to inflation and a weakening job market [2] - Job openings increased slightly by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August, while hiring decreased by 114,000 to 5.126 million according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [2] Zacks Research Performance - Amneal Pharmaceuticals saw a stock increase of 29.9% since its Zacks Rank upgrade on July 25, outperforming the S&P 500's 5.5% increase [4][7] - Leidos Holdings experienced a 19.8% return following a Zacks Rank upgrade on July 28, also surpassing the S&P 500's 5.1% increase [5][7] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +8.64% in 2025 through September 1, compared to +7.60% for the S&P 500 index [5] Focus List and Model Portfolios - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned 13.74% in 2025 through August 31, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 10.79% [12] - Intellia Therapeutics gained 85.9% and Shopify returned 38.3% over the past 12 weeks, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 7% increase during the same period [11] Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) - The ECAP returned +0.20% in Q2 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 index's +10.94% gain [16] - The portfolio aims to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies with a proven track record of earnings stability over 20+ years [17] Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) - Johnson & Johnson returned 20.9% and Home Depot increased by 6.3% over the past 12 weeks, benefiting from investor preference for quality dividend stocks amid market volatility [19] - The ECDP returned -3.17% in Q2 2025, compared to the S&P 500 index's +10.94% gain [20] Top 10 Stocks Performance - Goldman Sachs, part of the Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025, increased by 38% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 14.2% increase [22] - The Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +2,369.7% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 522.5% [24]

Company Overview - The Hershey Company is the leading confectionery manufacturer in the US, with a growing presence in non-chocolate snacks and a portfolio of popular brands including Reese's, Payday, Almond Joy, and Kit Kat (US only) [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology, and has researched over 1000 companies in total [1] Investment Focus - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where they have researched hundreds of different companies, with a particular interest in metals and mining stocks, as well as comfort in consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

Company Overview - The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) produces and sells a variety of confectionery and snack products under well-known brands such as Hershey's, Reese's, Kit Kat, and Jolly Rancher [2] Market Position - Hershey is considered to be in an "unassailable position" with commodity prices, particularly cocoa, having peaked, and there is no significant competition threatening its market dominance [1] - The company is viewed as a strong earnings play, especially among food stocks, which are performing well [1] Leadership Changes - The recent transition from CEO Michele Buck to Tanner, who has a brief tenure at Wendy's, raises concerns about leadership stability, despite Tanner's extensive background at PepsiCo [2] Investment Perspective - While Hershey is acknowledged as a potential investment, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [3]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company has outperformed Mondelez International nearly 2:1 in 2025, despite both companies facing challenges from rising cocoa prices [1][2] - The management of rising costs and the strength of non-chocolate portfolios will be crucial for both companies as peak candy demand approaches during Halloween and the holidays [2] Group 1: Hershey Company - Hershey's stock was one of the worst performers in 2024 due to higher commodity prices and a change in leadership, with Kirk Tanner replacing Michele Buck [4] - The company has successfully implemented a price increase of approximately 26% on popular products like Reese's and Kit-Kat, demonstrating its ability to pass costs to consumers [5] - Hershey has diversified its product offerings, launching new products like Shaq-A-Licious XL Gummies, which sold over 11 million units, and expanding its portfolio of salty snacks [6][7] Group 2: Mondelez International - Mondelez has also expanded its portfolio beyond chocolate but has not shown the same strong gains as Hershey, relying more on cost-cutting measures to preserve margins [8] - The company's earnings report indicated a 15% year-over-year drop in EPS, compared to Hershey's 3% decline, highlighting Hershey's better performance in passing price hikes to consumers [9] - Analysts suggest that while Mondelez stock may have more upside based on conventional metrics, it needs to prove its ability to pass on higher cocoa prices to consumers [10][11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Recent upgrades for Hershey include a rating increase from Neutral to Outperform by BNP Paribas Exane and a significant upgrade from Goldman Sachs from Sell to Buy, raising its price target to $220 [12] - Analysts expect a 15% gain for Hershey, which is higher than the 13% growth anticipated for Mondelez stock, indicating a more favorable outlook for Hershey [12] - Mondelez currently holds a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, but it is not included in the list of top stocks recommended by leading analysts [13]

and Hershey beating a lawsuit this week claiming it's Reese's Halloween candy isn't spooky enough. So, this suit alleged the company misled consumers who were disappointed the Halloween themed Reese's they bought lacked the decorations shown on the labels. The judge ruling the plaintiffs didn't prove they suffered any economic harm and the subjective belief they overpaid for the candy, well, they didn't support their claims.The proposed class action suit by two Florida residents was seeking at least $5 mill ...

Group 1: Realty Income - Realty Income offers a 5.3% dividend yield and has increased its dividend for 30 consecutive years, making it attractive for conservative investors [4][5] - It is the largest net-lease REIT, owning over 15,600 properties, and has an investment-grade balance sheet, providing advantageous access to capital markets [5] - The company focuses on diversifying its business by property type and geography, operating in both the U.S. and Europe, which supports growth [5][6] Group 2: PepsiCo - PepsiCo is a diversified consumer staples company, being the second largest non-alcoholic beverage company and the largest salty snack company through Frito-Lay [7] - It has a strong history as a Dividend King, with over five decades of annual dividend increases, and currently offers a 4% dividend yield [8] - An activist investor's involvement may prompt management to accelerate business changes, presenting a potential opportunity for investors [9] Group 3: Hershey - Hershey faces challenges due to rising cocoa prices, which have surged due to supply and demand issues, impacting its chocolate business [10][11] - The company is responding by raising prices and cutting costs, but concerns remain about the sustainability of its business model amid high cocoa prices [11] - The Hershey Trust controls the company, allowing for long-term decision-making without short-term pressures, which aligns with the interests of long-term investors [13][14] Group 4: Market Context - Despite the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs, there are still attractive dividend stocks available, requiring more effort to identify [15]

Group 1: Value Investing Insights - Value investing focuses on identifying overlooked stocks based on fundamentals, particularly in a market dominated by technology and growth themes [1] - Consumer staples, such as Hershey and PepsiCo, are currently undervalued and present investment opportunities as sentiment shifts [2] Group 2: Hershey Company Analysis - Hershey's stock is currently priced at $190.03 with a consensus Reduce rating and a price target of $173.89, indicating an 8% downside [2] - Goldman Sachs analyst upgraded Hershey to a Buy with a target price of $222, suggesting a 16% upside potential [3] - Institutional investors are increasing their stakes, with State Street raising its investment in Hershey to $1.2 billion, representing 3.5% of the company [4] - Analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $2.11 for Q1 2026, a 75% increase from the current EPS of $1.21, which typically drives stock prices higher [4][5] Group 3: PepsiCo Analysis - PepsiCo's stock is currently priced at $141.76, trading at 73% of its 52-week high and down 7.2% year-to-date, indicating it has been overlooked despite strong fundamentals [8] - PepsiCo offers a dividend yield of 4%, higher than U.S. Treasury bonds, providing immediate returns while waiting for stock momentum to improve [10] - The potential for a shift in sentiment exists if Wall Street analysts begin to upgrade PepsiCo's ratings and valuation targets, similar to the trend seen with Hershey [9]

Core Insights - Dot's Homestyle Pretzels has launched a new Buffalo Flavored Seasoned Twists snack, responding to consumer demand for bold flavors, particularly during the football season [2][4] - The new product is available in various bag sizes (5oz, 9.5oz, 16oz, and 35oz) and aims to cater to both individual snacking and group gatherings [3][4] Company Overview - The Hershey Company, an industry leader in snacks, generates over $11.2 billion in annual revenues and operates in approximately 70 countries [5] - The company employs over 20,000 people globally and has a diverse portfolio that includes both sweet and salty snacks [5] Market Trends - There is a growing consumer preference for innovative and bold snack flavors, as evidenced by the popularity of existing flavors like Original, Parmesan Garlic, Honey Mustard, and BBQ [4] - The launch of the Buffalo flavor is strategically timed for the busy fall season, aligning with increased snacking during football games [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hershey's stock performance has shown resilience in the past month, outperforming the Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500, despite a recent decline in trading [1] Financial Performance - The upcoming earnings report for Hershey is projected to show an EPS of $1.06, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 54.70% [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $3.11 billion, indicating a 4.1% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Full-year earnings estimates suggest earnings of $5.92 per share and revenue of $11.51 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -36.82% and +2.78%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Hershey indicate evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions seen as a favorable sign for the business outlook [3] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 0.16% over the last 30 days, and Hershey currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] Valuation Metrics - Hershey's Forward P/E ratio stands at 32.67, which is higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 22.88 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 4.67, compared to the Food - Confectionery industry's average PEG ratio of 3.5 [6] Industry Context - The Food - Confectionery industry is part of the Consumer Staples sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 103, placing it in the top 42% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that industries in the top 50% of the Zacks Industry Rank outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Upgrades - Loop Capital upgraded Union Pacific (UNP) to Hold from Sell with a price target of $227, up from $214, noting that the shares are down 5% year-to-date and valuation multiples are modestly above their five-year ranges [2] - BofA upgraded Prologis (PLD) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $130, up from $118, highlighting improved conversion rates of new lease proposals into signed leases during Q3 compared to Q2, and an optimistic outlook for demand versus supply dynamics through 2026 [3] - Goldman Sachs upgraded Hershey (HSY) to Buy from Sell with a price target of $222, up from $170, citing a compelling risk/reward scenario following multiple guidance reductions over the past year [4] - Arete upgraded Baidu (BIDU) to Buy from Sell with a price target of $143, emphasizing the potential of Baidu's Kunlun chip venture to offset challenges in its online advertising business due to AI chip shortages in China [5] - Citizens JMP upgraded CoreWeave (CRWV) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $180, projecting significant growth for its graphics processing unit-as-a-service business from $3B-$4B to an estimated $300B [4] Downgrades - TD Cowen downgraded Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) to Hold from Buy with an unchanged price target of $14, expressing concerns about the stock's risk/reward profile following a recent rally and potential bid from Paramount Skydance [6] - Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded Live Nation (LYV) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $170, up from $144, indicating that margin expansion will slow from fiscal 2026, limiting upside potential to earnings estimates [6] - Stifel downgraded VF Corp. (VFC) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $16, up from $15, stating that the stock's risk-reward is now balanced after a 12.5% one-month return, despite a strong outcome from the $600M sale of Dickies [6] - JPMorgan downgraded Camp4 Therapeutics (CAMP) to Neutral from Overweight without a price target, noting that while the company has a cash runway into 2027, its lead program is in the early stages [6] - JPMorgan downgraded Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) to Underweight from Neutral without a price target, citing a failed Phase 3 trial for its navacaprant treatment in major depressive disorder [6]