Core Insights - The Hershey Company is experiencing increased investor interest ahead of its Q1 2025 earnings release, despite a 14% decline in stock price over the past year [1][2][3] - Investors are potentially shifting focus from cost pressures to Hershey's strong brand portfolio and strategic evolution, which may provide defensive positioning and growth potential [2][3] Financial Performance - Hershey's management has guided for a significant drop in Adjusted EPS for fiscal year 2025, projected to decline in the mid-30% range due to rising cocoa prices [5] - Cocoa futures have recently retreated by as much as 30% from record highs, indicating a potential easing of cost pressures [6][7] Business Strategy - Hershey is diversifying its product offerings beyond confectionery, with successful salty snack brands and a pending acquisition of LesserEvil, which aligns with consumer trends towards healthier snacks [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve at least 2% net sales growth in fiscal 2025, reflecting strong brand loyalty and effective pricing strategies [8] Operational Efficiency - Hershey's "Advancing Agility & Automation Initiative" is projected to deliver approximately $125 million in savings during 2025, aiding in cost management and funding for innovation [12] - The company maintains a strong dividend yield of 3.28%, supported by a 15-year track record of annual dividend increases [11][13] Market Positioning - The stock price decline from its 2023 peak may present an entry point for investors seeking quality in a defensive sector [16] - The upcoming Q1 2025 earnings report is crucial, with investors looking for updates on volume performance, margin management, and cocoa cost outlook [15][16] Investment Consideration - Hershey offers a combination of defensive stability and growth potential, making it a compelling option for investors amid easing cost pressures and ongoing strategic initiatives [17][18]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company reported a significant decline in net sales and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with net sales decreasing by 13.8% to $2,805.4 million compared to the same period in 2024 [6][12][41] - The company is facing challenges due to heightened cost pressures and ongoing tariff negotiations, but maintains a strong balance sheet that allows for continued investment in strategic initiatives and acquisitions [2][3] Financial Performance - Consolidated net sales for Q1 2025 were $2,805.4 million, down 13.8% from $3,252.7 million in Q1 2024 [6][41] - Reported net income was $224.2 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, representing a decrease of 71.7% compared to $797.5 million, or $3.89 per diluted share, in the prior year [6][41] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $2.09, down 31.9% from $3.07 in Q1 2024 [6][41] Segment Performance - North America Confectionery segment net sales decreased by 15.0% to $2,300.1 million, with organic, constant currency net sales down 15.2% [18][41] - North America Salty Snacks segment net sales increased by 1.0% to $277.8 million, driven by a volume increase of approximately 4 points [22][41] - International segment net sales decreased by 15.9% to $227.5 million, with organic, constant currency net sales down 7.9% [25][41] Cost and Margin Analysis - Reported gross margin for Q1 2025 was 33.7%, a decrease of 1,780 basis points from 51.5% in Q1 2024, primarily due to higher commodity and manufacturing costs [13][41] - Adjusted gross margin was 41.2%, down 370 basis points from the previous year [13][41] - Selling, marketing, and administrative expenses decreased by 9.6% compared to Q1 2024, reflecting reduced advertising and lower compensation costs [14][41] Outlook and Guidance - The company expects net sales growth of at least 2% for the full year 2025, with reported earnings per share projected to decline in the high-40% range and adjusted earnings per share expected to decline in the mid-30% range [4][5] - The impact of the Sour Strips acquisition is anticipated to contribute approximately 30 basis points to net sales growth for the full year 2025 [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales reported a decline of 13.8% year-over-year, impacted by a 90 basis point headwind from foreign currency translation and a 15-point volume decline due to inventory lapses and fewer shipping days [23][24][29] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased by 32% in the quarter, with expectations for a less severe decline in the second quarter as seasonal impacts reverse [29] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 370 basis points, with expectations for further compression in the second quarter due to ongoing commodity inflation [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Confectionery segment net sales declined by 15%, with volume down nearly 18%, partially offset by net price realization of around 3% [24][25] - The North America salty snacks segment saw a 1% increase in net sales, with volume growth of nearly 4% driven by brands like Dots and Skinny Pop [25][26] - The salty snacks portfolio is positioned for growth, with Skinnypop consumption increasing by 5.4% and Dots retail takeaway growing by 20.6% [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International segment organic constant currency net sales declined by 7.9%, with performance ahead of expectations in key markets like Brazil and Mexico [25][15] - The global cocoa grind declined by 3.4% in Q1, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of declines, indicating ongoing demand challenges [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a leading snacking powerhouse, with strategic acquisitions like Lesser Evil and Fulfill to enhance its portfolio [6][7] - Investment in technology and automation is expected to deliver $125 million in cost savings this year, supporting long-term growth [17][28] - The company plans to launch several new products and partnerships, including a collaboration with Pokémon, to drive consumer engagement [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted heightened cost pressures but emphasized a strong balance sheet that allows for continued investment in the business [6] - The company anticipates a strong second quarter with net sales expected to increase by more than 20% as seasonal impacts reverse [24] - Management remains committed to its financial outlook, despite uncertainties related to tariffs and commodity costs [32] Other Important Information - The company did not repurchase any shares in the first quarter, prioritizing capital for acquisitions instead [30][31] - The adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 24.4%, reflecting challenges in executing tax strategies in a changing global landscape [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the second quarter? - The company expects total net sales to increase by more than 20% in Q2, reversing the impacts seen in Q1 due to Easter and inventory lapses [24] Question: How is the company addressing cocoa price pressures? - The company is engaging with the US government for tariff exemptions and is preparing strategies to mitigate inflation and protect margins [20][21][32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales reported a decline of 13.8% year-over-year, impacted by a 90 basis point headwind from foreign currency translation and a 30 basis point benefit from the Sour Strips acquisition [22][23] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased by 32% in the quarter, with expectations for a less severe decline in the second quarter as seasonal impacts reverse [29] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 370 basis points, primarily due to commodity inflation and negative sales mix, with expectations for further compression in the second quarter [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Confectionery segment net sales declined by 15%, in line with expectations, with volume down nearly 18% [23][24] - North America salty snacks segment net sales increased by 1%, with volume growth of nearly 4% driven by brands like Dots and Skinny Pop [24][25] - The salty snacks portfolio showed strong performance, with Skinnypop consumption increasing by 5.4% and Dots retail takeaway growing by 20.6% [14][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International segment organic constant currency net sales declined by 7.9%, with performance ahead of expectations in key markets [24][15] - Constant currency net sales increased mid-teens in Brazil and mid-single digits in Mexico, driven by improved category dynamics [15] - The global cocoa grind declined by 3.4% in Q1, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of declines [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a leading snacking powerhouse, with strategic acquisitions like Lesser Evil and Fulfill to enhance its portfolio [6][7] - Plans to build momentum in everyday business through innovation and programming, including new product launches and partnerships [12][13] - Continued investment in brands is expected to drive long-term growth, with a full-year advertising spend increase projected in the mid-single digits [16] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted heightened cost pressures but emphasized a strong balance sheet that allows for continued investment [6] - The company anticipates total net sales to increase by more than 20% in Q2, reversing the impacts seen in Q1 [22] - Cocoa prices are expected to build cost pressure each quarter, with robust planning underway to mitigate inflation and protect margins [19][20] Other Important Information - The company is pursuing an exemption request for cocoa tariffs, which cannot be mitigated through sourcing strategies [20][31] - Capital expenditures in Q1 were $146 million, lower than the prior year, with full-year expectations of $425 million to $450 million [30] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1, prioritizing capital for announced acquisitions [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for net sales growth in the upcoming quarters? - The company expects total net sales to increase by more than 20% in Q2, reversing the impacts from Q1 [22] Question: How is the company addressing cocoa price pressures? - The company is implementing robust planning to mitigate inflation and protect margins, with a focus on pricing and sourcing strategies [19][20] Question: What is the outlook for advertising spend this year? - The company anticipates a mid-single digit increase in full-year advertising spend, reflecting a commitment to brand investment [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Hershey Company is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with significant challenges stemming from high cocoa prices and changing consumer behavior [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey's revenues is $2.82 billion, indicating a 13.3% decrease from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has decreased to $1.94, reflecting a 36.8% decline year-over-year [1]. - The North America Confectionery segment is projected to see a 12.1% decline in sales, while the North America Salty Snacks business is expected to decrease by 1.1% [5]. Market Dynamics - Hershey is facing a challenging environment due to historically high cocoa prices and a financially constrained consumer base, leading to a projected adjusted gross margin contraction of 410 basis points [2]. - Shifts in consumer behavior, driven by economic uncertainty, have resulted in reduced foot traffic to convenience and drug stores, negatively impacting impulse sales and market share in the everyday chocolate category [3]. - Increased competition from smaller brands and evolving consumer preferences towards club, dollar, and online shopping channels are further complicating Hershey's competitive landscape [4]. Operational Challenges - Tighter inventory management by retailers is affecting Hershey's operations in North America [5]. - Despite slowing demand and inflationary pressures on key ingredients, benefits from price realization and supply chain productivity improvements may provide some relief [6]. Earnings Outlook - The current model predicts a potential earnings beat for Hershey, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +2.20% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7].

Core Viewpoint - Hershey faces significant challenges including tariffs, recession, and increased competition, which may impact its financial performance and dividend safety [1] Group 1: Challenges Facing Hershey - Tariffs are creating additional costs for the company, affecting profit margins [1] - The potential for a recession poses a risk to consumer spending on non-essential items like candy [1] - Increased competition in the candy market is putting pressure on Hershey's market share and pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Dividend Safety - The discussion revolves around whether Hershey's dividend remains secure amidst these challenges [1]

Company Performance - Hershey's stock closed at $166.59, with a gain of +1.44% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.13% [1] - Over the past month, Hershey's shares have declined by 1.86%, underperforming the Consumer Staples sector's gain of 0.72% and the S&P 500's loss of 6.3% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Hershey's earnings report is anticipated on May 1, 2025, with expected earnings of $1.94 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 36.81% [2] - Revenue is projected to be $2.82 billion, indicating a 13.25% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For the fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $6.10 per share, representing a decline of 34.9%, while revenue is projected at $11.42 billion, showing a slight increase of 1.99% from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Hershey suggest a shifting business landscape, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the company's outlook [3][4] - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimated changes, currently ranks Hershey at 3 (Hold) [5] Valuation Metrics - Hershey's Forward P/E ratio stands at 26.93, which is higher than the industry's average Forward P/E of 22.86 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 5.85, compared to the Food - Confectionery industry's average PEG ratio of 4.36 [6] Industry Context - The Food - Confectionery industry is part of the Consumer Staples sector, holding a Zacks Industry Rank of 89, placing it in the top 36% of over 250 industries [7] - Strong individual industry groups, as measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, tend to outperform weaker groups by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Group 1 - The Hershey Company (HSY) is recognized for its strong brand portfolio, including Hershey, Reese's, and recent acquisitions like Dot's Pretzels, SkinnyPop, and LesserEvil [1] Group 2 - The company is positioned in the consumer goods sector, particularly in the confectionery market, which is characterized by strong brand loyalty and consistent demand [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - Hershey is primarily known for its chocolates but operates as a snack maker, expanding into salty snacks like pretzels and popcorn [2] - The company has recently acquired LesserEvil, which produces healthier snack options, to enhance its salty snack portfolio [2] Group 2: Current Challenges - Hershey faces significant challenges due to a sharp rise in cocoa prices, which affects its chocolate confections [3][4] - The company is expected to see a mid-30% decline in adjusted earnings for 2025, following a slight decrease in 2024 earnings [4] Group 3: Sales and Revenue Outlook - Despite the earnings decline, Hershey projects a sales increase of at least 2% in 2025, supported by the addition of LesserEvil [5] - The company's food business continues to grow, with revenues being more stable than earnings over time [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Higher cocoa prices are expected to eventually lead to lower prices in the commodity market, suggesting that current challenges may be temporary [7] - Chocolate remains an affordable luxury for consumers, allowing Hershey to gradually implement price increases [8] Group 5: Long-term Perspective - A poor earnings year does not reflect negatively on Hershey as a company, which is facing typical short-term headwinds [9] - Monitoring sales trends is crucial, as resilient sales could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, especially with a historically high dividend yield of 3.3% [10]

Look for Reese's Filled Pretzels at your favorite snack spot and grab a bag, pouch or jar before they're gone. Follow @Reeses on social media for the latest brand news and snack updates. *Pricing is at the sole discretion of the retailer. We took pretzels, packed them with Reese's peanut butter filling, and changed the snack aisle forever HERSHEY, Pa., April 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- You may want to sit down for this. Reese's, the No. 1 candy franchise in the US1 just dropped a new snacking sensation. Introdu ...