传媒 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年3月21日 01024.HK 快手-W 买入 23Q4 利润表现好于预期，2023 年全面实现盈利 原评级：买入 市场价格:港币 52.25 快手发布23Q4和2023年业绩，23Q4净利润好于我们此前预期，2023年全 板块评级:强于大市 面实现盈利；短剧营销投放大幅增长，电商变现效率提升。维持买入评级。 股价表现 支撑评级的要点 30% ◼ 23Q4收入保持稳健增长，2023年全面实现盈利。23Q4营业收入325.6亿 元，同比+15.1%；IFRS净利润36.1亿元（vs. 22Q4净亏损15.47亿元）； 19% 经调整净利润43.6亿元（vs. 22Q4经调整净亏损0.45亿元），经调整净 8% 利率13.4%，环比Q3提升。23Q4国内收入317.1亿元，同比+13.2%，经 (4%) 营利润 42.5亿元，同比+235.4%；海外收入8.5亿元，同比+197.2%，经 (15%) 营亏损 5.5 亿元，同比收窄 63.2%。2023 全年收入 1134.7 亿元，同比 (26%) ra 3M -2 rp 3A -2 ya 3M -2 n 3uJ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [1] Core Views - Kuaishou has entered a comprehensive profitability era with improved operational efficiency, achieving a revenue of 326 billion CNY in Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 43.6 billion CNY, marking a turnaround from losses [1][2] - For the full year 2023, Kuaishou reported a revenue of 1135 billion CNY, up 20% year-on-year, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 102.7 billion CNY, also a turnaround from losses [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the gross margin improved to 53.1%, an increase of 7.59 percentage points year-on-year and 1.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - Operating expenses were optimized, with sales expenses at 102 billion CNY (31.3% of revenue), down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year; R&D expenses at 33 billion CNY (10.1% of revenue), down 2.06 percentage points year-on-year; and management expenses at 7.5 billion CNY (2.3% of revenue), down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Monthly active users reached 700 million, with daily active users at 380 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 4.5% respectively [2] Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing revenue in Q4 2023 was 182 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [2] - E-commerce GMV reached 403.9 billion CNY in Q4 2023, up 29% year-on-year, with monthly paying users exceeding 130 million [2] - Live streaming revenue remained stable at 100 billion CNY in Q4 2023, indicating a healthy development phase [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Non-IFRS net profits of 161 billion CNY, 240 billion CNY, and 308 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to Non-IFRS P/E ratios of 12.8, 8.6, and 6.7 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月21日 港元52.25 港元75.00 +43.5% 快手 (1024 HK) 电商/广告增长稳健，利润释放步调好于预期  2023年4季度利润超预期。快手4季度总收入326亿元人民币（下同）， 个股评级 同/环比增15%/17%，与我们/市场预期一致。成本优化好于预期，毛利率 买入 同/环比提升8/1个百分点至53%。经调整净利润44亿元，环比增37%， 对比去年同期4500万元亏损，超我们/市场预期25%/34%。海外变现环比 增30%，带动亏损收窄13%至5.5亿元。 1年股价表现 1024 HK  4季度业绩概览：1）MAU突破7亿，但总用户时长在高基数上同比降3%。 40% MSCI中国指数 2）电商GMV同比增29%，符合我们预期，持续受供给（月均动销商家数 30% 20% 同比+50%）及需求侧（MPU 1.3亿，渗透MAU 18.6%）增长驱动。我们估 10% 算佣金率1.1%，受达人分销抽佣带动同比提升8个基点。泛货架GMV占 0% 比进一步提升至>20%。3）线上营销收入增 21%，活跃广告主同比增 -10% -2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 32.6 billion RMB for Q4 2023, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.1%. Net profit reached 3.6 billion RMB, marking a return to profitability [2]. - The user ecosystem remains robust, with Monthly Active Users (MAU) surpassing 700 million. Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 382.5 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 4.5% [2]. - Revenue growth was driven by online marketing services and e-commerce, with online marketing service revenue at 18.2 billion RMB, up 20.6% year-over-year, and e-commerce revenue growing over 40% year-over-year, achieving a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of 403.9 billion RMB [2]. - Profitability exceeded expectations, with a gross margin of 53.1%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 11.1% [2]. - Overseas revenue saw significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 197.5%, while domestic revenue grew by 13.2% [2]. - The company forecasts Non-IFRS net profits of 16.5 billion RMB, 23 billion RMB, and 28.8 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16X, 11X, and 8X [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2023 total revenue: 32.6 billion RMB, up 15.1% year-over-year - Q4 2023 net profit: 3.6 billion RMB, returning to profitability - Adjusted net profit: 4.4 billion RMB [2]. User Metrics - Q4 2023 DAU: 382.5 million, up 4.5% year-over-year - Q4 2023 MAU: 700.4 million, up 9.4% year-over-year - Daily average user engagement: 124.5 minutes [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing service revenue: 18.2 billion RMB, up 20.6% year-over-year - E-commerce revenue: over 40% growth year-over-year, GMV of 403.9 billion RMB, up 29.3% year-over-year - Live streaming revenue: 10 billion RMB, up 0.1% year-over-year [2]. Profitability Metrics - Q4 2023 gross margin: 53.1%, up 7.6 percentage points year-over-year - Q4 2023 net profit margin: 11.1%, adjusted net profit margin: 13.4% [2]. Future Projections - Expected Non-IFRS net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 16.5 billion RMB, 23 billion RMB, and 28.8 billion RMB respectively - Corresponding P/E ratios: 16X, 11X, and 8X [2].

女士们先生们大家好欢迎参加快手科技2023年第四季度及全年业绩电话会议请注意本次电话会议提供管理层发言部分的英文同声翻译您需要进入英文频道以便收听第三方传译员的同声翻译请留意今天的会议正在录音现在有请公司资本市场和投资者关系副总裁Matthew Zhao先生发言 謝謝Alfred,大家好,歡迎參加快手科技2023年第四季度及全年業績電話會議。今天出席電話會議的管理層有快手科技的聯合創始人、董事長兼首席執行官程一孝先生和快手科技首席財務官金炳先生。在會議開始之前,我們想提醒您。 今天的會議內容可能包含前瞻性陳述其中涉及諸多風險和不確定性實際結論和結果可能與今天討論的結論和結果有所不同除法律要求外本公司不承擔任何更新此前瞻性信息的義務有關本會議的所有重要資料包括前瞻性陳述請以公司公開資料或今日早些時候在公司IR網站發布的截至2023年12月31日的2023年第四季度及前年業績公告為準 今天的电话会议中管理层还将讨论某些非国际会计准则的财务指标仅供考虑作为补充但不能替代根据国际会计准则编制的公司财务业绩指标有关非国际会计准则财务指标的定义以及其与国际会计准则财务业绩的对照相关风险因素提示请参阅公司2023年第四季度 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 113,470 million, representing a 20.5% increase from RMB 94,183 million in 2022[2] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 57,391 million, with a gross margin of 50.6%, up from RMB 42,131 million and a margin of 44.7% in 2022, reflecting a 36.2% year-over-year increase[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year reached RMB 17,424 million, a significant increase of 860.0% compared to RMB 1,815 million in 2022[2] - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6,399 million for the year, a turnaround from a net loss of RMB 13,689 million in 2022[2] - Kuaishou's total revenue for 2023 was RMB 113.5 billion, an increase of 20.5% year-on-year, marking a transition to a fully profitable era with adjusted net profit exceeding RMB 10.3 billion[9] - Operating profit for 2023 was RMB 6.431 billion, a significant recovery from an operating loss of RMB 12.558 billion in 2022, reflecting an operating margin of 5.7%[32] - The company recorded a profit of RMB 6.4 billion in 2023, compared to a loss of RMB 13.7 billion in 2022[37] - The company reported a basic earnings per share of RMB 1.48 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to a loss per share of RMB 3.22 in 2022[79] User Engagement - Average daily active users (DAUs) increased to 379.9 million in 2023 from 355.7 million in 2022, while average monthly active users (MAUs) rose to 678.2 million from 612.7 million[7] - In Q4 2023, the average monthly active users of the Kuaishou app reached a record high of 700 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%[10] - Daily active users of Kuaishou's short drama content reached 94 million in Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of over 50%[10] - The average daily usage time per active user reached 124.5 minutes in Q4 2023[10] Revenue Streams - Online marketing services revenue grew by 23.0% to RMB 60.304 billion in 2023, accounting for 53.1% of total revenue[24] - Live streaming revenue increased by 10.4% to RMB 39.054 billion in 2023, representing 34.4% of total revenue[25] - Other services revenue surged by 44.7% to RMB 14.112 billion in 2023, driven by growth in e-commerce transactions[25] - Revenue from search marketing services in Q4 2023 nearly doubled year-on-year, driven by improvements in user search experience and algorithm optimization[10] - Online marketing services revenue increased by 20.6% to RMB 18.2 billion in Q4 2023, accounting for 55.9% of total revenue[40] E-commerce Growth - Total e-commerce transaction value on the platform reached RMB 1,184,370.8 million, compared to RMB 901,156.6 million in 2022, indicating strong growth in e-commerce activities[7] - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) in Q4 2023 grew by 29.3% year-on-year, reaching RMB 403.9 billion, with the average number of monthly paying users surpassing 130 million[13] - The number of e-commerce merchants increased by over 50% year-on-year in 2023, with marketing clients growing by over 100%[9] - The total transaction value of short video e-commerce grew over 100% year-over-year in Q4 2023, driven by rich short video supply and continuous improvement in content quality[14] Cost Management - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 1.7% to RMB 36.496 billion, reducing its share of total revenue from 39.4% in 2022 to 32.2% in 2023[29] - Employee benefits expenses decreased to RMB 18,334 million from RMB 20,260 million, reflecting a 9.5% reduction[98] - R&D expenses decreased by 4.4% to RMB 3.3 billion in Q4 2023, reflecting reduced employee benefits costs[47] Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash generated from operating activities for the year was RMB 20.8 billion, primarily due to a pre-tax profit of RMB 6.9 billion[76] - For the year ended December 31, 2023, the net cash used in investing activities was RMB 19.9 billion, primarily due to net investments in financial assets measured at fair value of RMB 13.2 billion, purchases of property, equipment, and intangible assets of RMB 4.9 billion, and net investments in time deposits with initial terms over three months of RMB 2.4 billion[77] - The net cash used in financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 1.4 billion, mainly due to lease principal and interest payments of RMB 3.5 billion, share repurchases of RMB 1.3 billion, and net proceeds from note arrangements of RMB 3.2 billion[78] Corporate Governance - The company emphasizes high standards of corporate governance and has adopted relevant codes as part of its governance practices[122] - The board includes both executive and independent non-executive directors, ensuring a diverse governance structure[131] - The company has prepared its audited consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2023, in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards[126] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[1] - The company expects continued growth in revenue and profitability driven by enhanced operational strategies and product capabilities[23] - The company plans to continue expanding its online marketing services and exploring new technologies to enhance user engagement[96]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ye Heng, the former head of e-commerce products at Kuaishou, has left the company to join Xiaohongshu, which has surprised many in the industry [1] - Ye Heng's departure from Kuaishou occurred around the time of the Spring Festival, and he had previously worked at Tencent before joining Kuaishou in 2020 [1] - During his tenure at Kuaishou, Ye Heng transitioned from overseeing social and production departments to leading the e-commerce division, where he became a prominent figure in related activities [1] Group 2 - Ye Heng was last seen representing Kuaishou at the e-commerce Gravity Conference in September of last year, where he emphasized the importance of low-priced quality products, quality content, and attentive service as the foundation for content distribution [1] - His specific role at Xiaohongshu is not yet confirmed, but it is rumored that he will take on a key position in the C-end product team, reporting to Xing Shi (Mao Wenchao) [1] - Ye Heng's experience accumulated over the past two years at Kuaishou's e-commerce sector is expected to be a valuable asset in his new role at Xiaohongshu [1]

北京商报讯（记者 魏蔚）2月20日，快手发布的《2024快手春节报告》（以下简称《报告》）显示，重庆北京分列南北方最热旅行城市；短剧成为重要休闲方式，观看量同比增长41%；快手“云上庙会”相关话题总播放人次超285亿。春节期间，快手星芒短剧观看量同比增长41%，期间发布相关视频的90后创作者数量同比增长54%，相关视频播放量同比增长164%。根据《报告》，快手“云上庙会”相关话题总播放人次超285亿，直播总观看人次超14亿。 海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP ...

Group 1 - Kuaishou-W (01024) rebounded over 5%, closing up 5.5% at HKD 41.25, with a trading volume of HKD 357 million [1] - Macquarie expects the group's Q4 revenue to increase by 16% year-on-year, with live streaming revenue up 1%, online marketing services revenue up 20%, and other revenue up 39% [1] - Macquarie raised its earnings forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 4% and 5% respectively, reflecting better cost control and profit performance, and increased the target price by 4% to HKD 61 [1] Group 2 - Citi estimates that the company's Q4 revenue grew resiliently, with a year-on-year increase of 15% to RMB 32.6 billion, and adjusted net profit improved to RMB 3.4 billion [1] - The growth was mainly driven by a 30% year-on-year increase in e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) and the expansion of shelf-style e-commerce business [1] - Citi raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for the last year and this year by 8% and 9% respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a group-level net profit of RMB2.18 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB3.17 billion, marking a significant improvement in profitability [8][74] - Group revenue grew by 20.8% year-over-year to RMB27.9 billion, driven by growth across core businesses [66] - Gross profit for Q3 grew by 35% year-over-year to RMB14.5 billion, with a gross profit margin of 51.7% [70][71] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from online marketing services increased by 26.7% year-over-year to RMB14.7 billion, accounting for 52.6% of total revenue [66][26] - E-commerce GMV grew by approximately 30% year-over-year, significantly outpacing industry growth [69][36] - Live streaming revenue increased by 8.6% year-over-year to RMB9.7 billion, driven by improved content offerings [69][54] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average Daily Active Users (DAUs) reached 387 million, and Monthly Active Users (MAUs) reached 685 million, representing year-over-year increases of 6.4% and 9.4% respectively [15] - The average daily time spent per DAU on the Kuaishou app was 129.9 minutes, with total user time spent growing by 6.9% year-over-year [16] - Searches average monthly users exceeded 470 million, with daily search inquiries peaking at over 700 million [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen cooperation between its e-commerce and commercialization business units to enhance monetization efficiency [14] - Focus on fostering high-quality original content creation and exploring innovative user acquisition channels [18][17] - The company is committed to optimizing the synergy between its traffic ecosystem and monetization system [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of e-commerce GMV growth, citing the mass market's increasing demand for quality goods [83] - The company anticipates continued growth in external marketing services, particularly in media information, education, and healthcare sectors [88] - Management highlighted the importance of refining operations and enhancing user experience to drive future growth [75] Other Important Information - The company launched its own in-house data center, Kuaishou Smart Cloud, to improve operational efficiency [9] - A new AI strategy was initiated to integrate advanced technologies into business operations, enhancing user interaction and content creation [110] Q&A Session Summary Question: Performance of Double 11 and sustainability of e-commerce GMV - Management reported that Double 11 sales exceeded expectations, with presale GMV increasing by 84% year-over-year and shopping mall GMV accounting for around 10% of total GMV [78][79][81] Question: Growth in external enterprise revenue and industry performance - Management noted strong growth in media information and education sectors, with paid short plays seeing over 300% growth year-over-year [89][90][92] Question: New initiatives in local services and Kwai Hire - Management highlighted a five-fold increase in average daily GMVs for local services and significant growth in active merchants [97][99][102] Question: Capital return policy and cash flow management - Management confirmed a strong operating cash flow of RMB7.7 billion and ongoing share repurchase plans, indicating confidence in financial performance [106][107] Question: Progress in AI initiatives - Management shared advancements in AI, including the development of large language models and their applications in content creation and user interaction [110][113]