%% research.95579.com %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨快手 （ ） -W 1024.HK [快Ta手ble_Title及] 年财报点评：电商业务价值凸 23Q4 23 显，进入全面盈利时代 报告要点 [公Ta司bl公e_布Su2m3m年arQy]4及23年全年财报。快手23年全年实现营收1134.70亿元，同比增长20.5%， 其中23Q4实现营收325.61亿元，同比增长15.1%；23年全年Non-GAAP净利润102.71亿 元，同比扭亏为盈，其中23Q4Non-GAAP净利润43.62亿元，环比持续提升。快手全年经调 整净利润和期内利润均实现扭亏为盈，全面进入盈利时代。 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price range of 70-93 HKD [1][2][10] Core Views - Revenue growth remains steady, with profit margins continuing to expand [1][2] - The company's cost control is excellent, with adjusted net profit expected to grow significantly in 2024-2026 [2][10] - The company's commercialization capabilities, particularly in e-commerce and advertising, are expected to drive future growth [2][9] Financial Performance - Q4 2023 revenue reached 32.6 billion CNY, a 15% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 53.1%, up 7.6 percentage points YoY [1][5] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was 4.36 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.4%, up 14 percentage points YoY [1][5] - Domestic revenue in Q4 2023 was 31.7 billion CNY, a 13% YoY increase, while overseas operations incurred a loss of 550 million CNY [1][5] Operational Metrics - Q4 2023 MAU reached 700 million, a 9% YoY increase, while DAU was 383 million, up 4% YoY [1][7] - Total traffic in Q4 2023 decreased by 3% YoY, with daily user time spent declining by 7% YoY to 124.5 minutes [1][7] - The company expects DAU to reach 400 million by the second half of 2024 [1][7] Commercialization - E-commerce GMV in Q4 2023 grew 29% YoY to 403.9 billion CNY, with revenue from e-commerce increasing 36% YoY to 4.3 billion CNY [2][8] - Advertising revenue in Q4 2023 grew 21% YoY to 18.2 billion CNY, driven by strong performance in outbound advertising [2][9] - The company expects e-commerce GMV to grow 25% and advertising revenue to grow over 20% in 2024 [2][9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 11.8% in 2024 to 126.8 billion CNY, with adjusted net profit projected to reach 16.5 billion CNY, a 60.2% YoY increase [3][10] - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to increase from 2.47 CNY in 2023 to 3.96 CNY in 2024 [3] - ROE is expected to rise from 13% in 2023 to 22.5% in 2024 [3] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 18.8x in 2023 to 11.8x in 2024 [3] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 29.9x in 2023 to 15.7x in 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) [1] Core Views - Kuaishou's Q4 2023 financial performance exceeded expectations, with revenue growth driven by strong advertising and e-commerce sectors [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in advertising and e-commerce in 2024 [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, Kuaishou achieved revenue of CNY 32.56 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 16.5% [2][9] - The full-year revenue for 2023 reached CNY 113.47 billion, up 20.5% year-over-year [2][9] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 was CNY 4.36 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin improving to 13.4% [9][17] User Growth and Engagement - Kuaishou's monthly active users (MAU) reached 700 million, while daily active users (DAU) were 383 million, with an average daily usage time of 124.5 minutes [3][7] - The company has optimized user growth strategies and algorithms, leading to a decrease in customer acquisition costs [7][9] Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services revenue grew by 20.6% year-over-year to CNY 18.2 billion, accounting for 55.9% of total revenue [20][27] - Live streaming revenue remained stable at CNY 10 billion, while other business revenues increased by 36.2% to CNY 4.3 billion [23][27] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2024-2026 are CNY 127.77 billion, CNY 145.58 billion, and CNY 162.67 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at CNY 16.83 billion, CNY 25.53 billion, and CNY 32.14 billion [33][35] - The target market capitalization for 2024 is estimated at CNY 319.7 billion, with a target price of HKD 73 to HKD 81 [33][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations with a total revenue of 32.561 billion yuan in Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and a gross margin of 53.1%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 51.4% [2][3] - The adjusted net profit reached 4.36 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.26 billion yuan [2] - Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached a historical high of 700 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 383 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3] - The e-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew by 29% year-on-year to 403.9 billion yuan, with the Monthly Active Customers (MAC) reaching a new high of over 130 million [3] - The company expects further profit release in 2024, with an anticipated increase in gross margin due to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses [3] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 114.448 billion yuan in 2023 to 161.367 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.29% [2] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from 15.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 29 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4] - The report adjusts the 2024-2025 adjusted net profit estimates to 16.2 billion yuan and 22.8 billion yuan, respectively, and introduces a new forecast of 29 billion yuan for 2026 [4] Key Financial Metrics - The latest diluted EPS is projected to rise from 1.47 yuan in 2023 to 5.66 yuan in 2026 [2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 32.07 in 2023 to 8.33 in 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [2] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 50.58% in 2023 to 54.80% in 2026 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% in the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company has entered a fully profitable era, achieving a total revenue of 1134.7 billion with a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. The gross margin improved to 50.6%, and the adjusted net profit reached 102.71 billion, marking the first annual profit since its listing [2]. - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 325.61 billion, a 15.1% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 53.1% and an adjusted net profit of 43.62 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 13.4% [2]. User Growth and Content Strategy - The company achieved a MAU of 700 million in Q4 2023, with a DAU of 383 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 4.5%, respectively. The average daily usage time per DAU was 124.5 minutes [3]. - The company has launched nearly 1,000 short dramas, with over 300 achieving more than 100 million views. The number of heavy short drama users increased by over 50% year-on-year, and the daily average of paid short drama users grew more than threefold [3]. Advertising and E-commerce Performance - The online marketing revenue for the year reached 603.04 billion, a 22.97% increase year-on-year, with Q4 revenue of 182 billion, up 20.6% year-on-year. Active user numbers increased by 160% [4]. - The e-commerce GMV for the year was 11844 billion, growing 31.43% year-on-year, with Q4 GMV reaching 4039 billion, a 29.3% increase. The average monthly paid user count surpassed 130 million, with a penetration rate of 18.6% [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to continue releasing profits, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 161.48 billion, 199.02 billion, and 224.23 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology with a target price adjusted to HKD 66, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 52.25 [3][4]. Core Insights - Kuaishou achieved its first annual profit in FY23, with a revenue of RMB 113.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. The gross margin improved by 7.6 percentage points to 53.1%, driven by changes in revenue structure and reduced bandwidth costs. The adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.3 billion, exceeding market expectations by 12.5% [2][3]. - Monthly active users (MAU) surpassed 700 million, with daily active users (DAU) at 383 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. Advertising revenue grew by 21% to RMB 18.2 billion, primarily fueled by strong growth in e-commerce internal circulation advertising [2][3]. - The e-commerce ecosystem continues to strengthen, with a projected 25% growth in GMV for 2024. In Q4 2023, e-commerce revenue reached RMB 4.039 billion, a 29% year-on-year increase, significantly outperforming the industry average [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY23 revenue was RMB 113.5 billion, with an operating profit of RMB 6.431 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 10.271 billion. The forecast for FY24 revenue is RMB 127.143 billion, with an expected adjusted net profit of RMB 15.942 billion [4][6]. User Metrics - DAU reached 383 million, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, while MAU hit 700 million, up 9.4%. However, total user time decreased by 2.9% due to a decline in user engagement [2][3]. Advertising and E-commerce Growth - Advertising revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 18.2 billion, a 21% increase, driven by strong performance in e-commerce advertising. The e-commerce GMV for Q4 2023 was RMB 403.9 billion, reflecting a 29% year-on-year growth [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3][11] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2023 reached 113.47 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, driven primarily by a 23.0% growth in online marketing services revenue [3][5] - The gross margin improved to 50.6%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the adjusted net profit turned positive at 10.271 billion yuan [3][5] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in Q4 2023, with a total of 32.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.5% [3][5] - The short drama segment has shown strong commercial potential, with a significant increase in both supply and quality, leading to a more than sixfold increase in advertising revenue for short dramas in Q4 2023 [4][5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 7.497 billion yuan, 8.615 billion yuan, and 9.372 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.7, 2.0, and 2.2 yuan [3][5] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 26.2, 22.8, and 20.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][5] - The gross margin is expected to remain strong, with projections of 50.5%, 52.3%, and 53.9% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][7] Business Development - The company is focusing on enhancing its short drama strategy, aiming to create more high-quality content and strengthen the monetization process [4][5] - The daily active users (DAU) for short dramas reached 270 million in 2023, with a 52.6% year-on-year increase in heavy users watching more than 10 episodes daily [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 89.58 per share, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2024 profits [4][25]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase in Q4 2023, reaching CNY 32.6 billion, which is a year-over-year growth of 15% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 17%, exceeding consensus expectations [9][10]. - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 53.1%, up 7.6 percentage points year-over-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the expected 51.4% [9][10]. - The GAAP net profit for Q4 2023 was CNY 3.6 billion, corresponding to an 11% profit margin, significantly exceeding the expected CNY 2.16 billion [9][10]. - The Non-GAAP net profit was CNY 4.36 billion, with a net profit margin of 13%, also above the consensus estimate of CNY 3.26 billion [9][10]. User and Content Ecosystem - The Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 700 million in Q4 2023, a year-over-year increase of 9%, while Daily Active Users (DAU) were 383 million, up 4% year-over-year [9][10]. - The average daily time spent per user was 124.5 minutes, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter [7][9]. Revenue Performance - Q4 2023 advertising revenue was CNY 18.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 21% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 24% [9][10]. - E-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached CNY 403.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 29% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 39% [9][10]. - The e-commerce monetization rate was 1.07%, with a noted dilution effect from the growth in general merchandise scenarios [9][10]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in advertising and e-commerce into Q1 2024, with projected revenue of CNY 29.1 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase [9][10]. - For 2024 and 2025, the revenue is forecasted to reach CNY 127.4 billion and CNY 144.6 billion, representing year-over-year growth rates of 12.3% and 13.5% respectively [20][22]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 and 2025 is expected to be CNY 16.1 billion and CNY 24.4 billion, with profit margins of 13% and 17% respectively [22][25].

Kuaishou Technology (OTCPK:KUASF) Q4 2023 Results Earnings Conference Call March 20, 2024 7:00 AM ET Company Participants Matthew Zhao - Vice President of Capital Markets, Investor Relations Cheng Yixiao - Co-founder, Executive Director, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer Jin Bing - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Lincoln Kong - Goldman Sachs Thomas Chong - Jefferies Felix Liu - UBS Alex Poon - Morgan Stanley Lei Zhang - Bank of America Operator Good day, ladies and gentl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HK$97, implying an upside of 85.6% from the current price of HK$52.25 [2][3]. Core Insights - Kuaishou is expected to see margin improvement driven by gains in advertising and e-commerce. The company reported solid 4Q23 results, with revenue growth of 15% YoY and a net profit of RMB4.4 billion, which was 34% above consensus estimates [2][3]. - For FY24E, total revenue is projected to grow by 10.6% YoY, with specific segments showing varied performance: livestreaming revenue is expected to decline by 8%, while advertising and other services are forecasted to grow by 20% and 24% YoY, respectively [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit margin (NPM) improved to 13.4% in 4Q23, exceeding estimates, primarily due to a higher-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) and reduced losses from overseas operations [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23A was RMB113.47 billion, with a YoY growth of 20.5%. For FY24E, revenue is expected to reach RMB125.54 billion, reflecting a growth of 10.6% [3][16]. - The adjusted net profit for FY23A was RMB10.27 billion, with projections for FY24E at RMB16.03 billion, indicating a significant growth of 56.1% YoY [3][16]. - The report highlights a projected GPM of 53.1% for FY24E, with an expected operating profit of RMB13.17 billion, marking a substantial recovery from previous losses [3][16]. Segment Performance - In 4Q23, the revenue breakdown showed online marketing services growing by 24% YoY, while live streaming remained flat at 0% growth. Other services and e-commerce saw significant growth of 36% and 31% YoY, respectively [2][7]. - For 1Q24E, advertising revenue is expected to increase by 26% YoY, while e-commerce GMV is projected to grow by 29% YoY, indicating strong momentum in these segments [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a SOTP-based valuation, with the target price set at HK$97, based on a P/E ratio of 24x for FY24E and 17x for FY25E [2][3]. - The current market capitalization is reported at HK$2.27 billion, with a P/S ratio of 1.7 for FY24E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4][16].