Group 1 - Macquarie has lowered its earnings per share forecast for Kuaishou (01024.HK) by 8% and 9% for the next two years, reflecting slower growth in online marketing services and higher general and administrative costs [1] - The target price for Kuaishou has been reduced from HKD 64.7 to HKD 59.8, corresponding to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times for this year, while maintaining an outperform rating [1] - In the first quarter, Kuaishou's online marketing service revenue increased by 8% year-on-year, supported by healthy growth in internal e-commerce and external advertising [1] Group 2 - Despite short-term merchant support measures compressing monetization rates, Kuaishou remains confident in its advertising revenue outlook, emphasizing positive results from AI integration [1] - The company highlighted the success of its Omni-channel Solution 4.0 product in enhancing interaction and conversion, thereby improving merchant return on investment [1] - Kuaishou is witnessing a more diversified demand for content consumption, including mini-games and web novels, as well as verticals in commercial services [1] Group 3 - Macquarie expects Kuaishou's online marketing service revenue to grow by 10% year-on-year in the second quarter and by 16% in the second half of the year [1] - The firm is pleased to see the continuous growth and monetization of Kuaishou's AI capabilities, with Kuaishou AI 2.0 expected to further solidify the company's leading position in the large video model field and expand its AI business [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the commercialization of Kuaishou's AI, known as "Keling AI," remains a key catalyst for the company's stock price in 2025 [1] - Kuaishou's Q1 performance met expectations, with daily active users (DAU) reaching a record 408 million and average daily usage time per DAU at 133.8 minutes, close to the historical high of 133.9 minutes in Q4 2022 [1] - The overseas business achieved positive operating profit for the first time in Q1, indicating growth potential [1] Group 2 - Keling AI generated revenue of 150 million RMB in Q1, with approximately 70% coming from paid professional consumer subscriptions [1] - The company has raised its revenue forecast for Keling AI to 700 million RMB for the entire year, driven by the progress of the Keling AI 2.0 update in April [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura maintains a target price of HKD 55 for Kuaishou and a neutral rating, indicating a stable outlook for the company despite market fluctuations [1] Financial Performance - Kuaishou's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, aligning with Bloomberg consensus and Nomura's expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 4% to RMB 4.6 billion, exceeding market consensus by 2% [1] - E-commerce GMV grew by 15% year-on-year, with live-streaming e-commerce (LSE) expected to see annual growth in the mid to high single digits [1] Business Outlook - Kuaishou has raised its annual revenue forecast for its "Keling" model from USD 60 million to USD 100 million, driven by a Q1 revenue of RMB 150 million that surpassed expectations [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou with a target price of HK$66, representing an expected return of 35.4% from the current price of HK$48.75 [6][10][22]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's advertising growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, driven by easier comparisons for non-ecommerce ads and ongoing monetization efforts in various verticals [1][2]. - The company has seen a positive trend in monetization from its Kling platform, with plans to introduce more cost-effective versions to enhance user engagement and revenue [4][22]. - Despite challenges in the live streaming segment due to regulatory pressures, Kuaishou's overall revenue growth remains robust, with a projected 12% revenue growth in 2Q25E [2][12]. Revenue Outlook - Kuaishou's total revenue for 1Q25 was Rmb32.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with live streaming revenues up 14.4% and advertising revenues increasing by 8.0% [12][13]. - The company anticipates a GMV growth of 14% year-on-year for 2Q25E, supported by traffic boosts for merchants during the upcoming 618 shopping festival [2][12]. - The full-year revenue growth estimate is maintained at 13% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in ecommerce and advertising segments [2][12]. Margin Outlook - Kuaishou's operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to expand year-on-year in 2025, although this may be offset by a higher effective tax rate, leading to a flat net profit margin (NPM) [3][12]. - The adjusted earnings estimates for 2025 are maintained at Rmb20 billion, with a focus on improving margins through higher-margin advertising revenues [3][12]. Updates on Kling - Kling generated Rmb150 million in revenue in 1Q25, with a rapid increase in both individual and enterprise users, indicating strong growth potential [4][12]. - The rollout of Kling AI 2.0 is expected to further enhance monetization efforts, catering to diverse user demands [4][12]. Financial Summary - Kuaishou's financial performance shows a significant increase in net profit from Rmb10.3 billion in 2023 to an estimated Rmb20.1 billion in 2025, with a diluted EPS growth of 15% [5][10]. - The company is projected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 27.9% in 2025, reflecting effective capital utilization [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology with a revised 12-month price target of HK$63.00, indicating an upside potential of 29.2% from the current price of HK$48.75 [1]. Core Insights - Kuaishou reported in-line results for 1Q25 and maintained its FY25 guidance on advertising, eCommerce, and profitability, with a positive outlook on growth momentum for the remainder of the year [1][19]. - The advertising momentum is expected to improve, with management targeting a 12% year-on-year growth in 2Q25 and further acceleration anticipated in the second half of the year [2][34]. - The eCommerce segment is projected to achieve 13-15% year-on-year GMV growth, supported by stable livestreaming and a focus on enhancing merchant ROI through AI tools [3][37]. - The Kling monetization outlook has been raised significantly, with FY25 revenue expectations increased to US$100 million, reflecting a rapid expansion of paying users [4][22]. Summary by Sections Advertising - Management anticipates a 12% year-on-year growth in advertising for 2Q25, with expectations for high-teens growth in the second half of the year driven by contributions from mini-games and local services [34]. - The advertising target for FY25 remains unchanged at approximately 14% year-on-year growth [34]. eCommerce - Kuaishou aims for 13-14% year-on-year GMV growth in 2Q25, with a stable overall take rate of around 4% for 2025 [37]. - The company plans to start monetizing pan-shelf based eCommerce traffic to improve the take rate from nearly 0% to approximately 1-2% in the second half of 2025 [38]. Kling AI - The revenue outlook for Kling AI has been raised to US$100 million for FY25, driven by a growing base of paying users and enhanced marketing efforts [4][22]. - The revenue mix indicates that 70% of Kling AI revenue comes from subscriptions, primarily from professional content creators, while 30% is derived from API calling revenue [23]. Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been fine-tuned upwards by 0.7% to 1.1%, reflecting better-than-expected performance in livestreaming and other services [19][21]. - The projected total revenue for 2025 is Rmb 140,739 million, with net income expected to be Rmb 19,104 million [17][21].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened slightly higher but experienced a decline, closing down 0.55% at 23,254.45 points, with a trading volume of 99.948 billion HKD [1] - The technology sector, particularly the performance of Kuaishou, saw a notable increase of 5.03% following its earnings report [1] - Xiaomi Group reported a record high total revenue for Q1, resulting in a 1.36% increase in its stock price [1] Group 2 - The aviation sector showed positive movement, with China Southern Airlines rising by 3.32% [1] - Semiconductor stocks, including SMIC, faced a decline, with SMIC's stock down by 1.01% [1] - The logistics and film sectors led the market, while consumer stocks, semiconductor, and automotive sectors experienced the largest declines [1]

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher on May 28, with the three major indices experiencing fluctuations. The sectors of autonomous driving and nuclear power were active, while aviation and communication equipment also saw gains [1] - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.02% [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index declined by 0.23%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.06% [2][3] Bond Market - The bond market saw a decline across the board, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.14%, the 10-year contract down by 0.03%, and the 5-year contract decreasing by 0.02% [4] Pharmaceutical E-commerce Sector - The A-share pharmaceutical e-commerce sector fell by 1%, with notable declines in stocks such as First Pharmaceutical down by 4.7% and Yibai Pharmaceutical down by 1.28% [5][6] - A new procurement platform rule in Guangdong province aims to unify drug pricing across the country, potentially impacting pharmacies and e-commerce platforms [7] Fast Food and Beverage Sector - Kuaishou's Q1 revenue increased by 10.9% year-on-year to 32.6 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 4.6 billion yuan, reflecting a net profit margin of 14% [9][10] - The beverage manufacturing sector remained strong, with companies like Huaiqishan and New Dairy seeing significant gains [16] Autonomous Driving Sector - The autonomous driving sector continued to be active, with stocks like Tongda Electric and Yunnei Power seeing substantial increases [18] Nuclear Power Sector - Nuclear power stocks surged, with China National Nuclear Corporation International rising nearly 8% and China General Nuclear Power Corporation Mining up 7.43% [15]

值得注意的是，近期，多家卖方机构提出了"港股迎来价值重估"的观点，他们判断，后续，港股市场有 望迎来海内外增量资金。 恒生指数高开0.01%，恒生科技指数涨0.52%。快手涨超6%，小米集团涨超2%。 关于港股后市 据国泰君安国际策略团队统计，近一段时间，南向资金最主要净流入银行行业，大金融板块获得南向资 金的净流入规模超过165亿港元，而资讯科技行业则遭遇南向资金的净流出，规模超过205亿港元。 该策略团队进一步分析，资金在科技股获利了结，一方面是因为资本市场习惯性"买预期、卖现实"，另 一方面，关税前景仍然充满不确定性。 从估值角度看，财通证券首席策略分析师李美岑指出，2024年以来，南下资金涌入带动港股估值持续修 复，恒生指数PE从7.5倍左右震荡上行至当前10.5倍，与近十年均值水平相当，仍称不上贵，相较2018 年初、2021年初高位还有较大提升空间，港股的估值修复仍在路上。 此外，2025年也是港股IPO市场的大复苏之年，香港将为国内企业提供了募集外资的重要窗口，正在 2025年加速兑现，香港仍然是当之无愧的国际金融中心，也将在我国未来的资本市场发展中起到重要的 角色，今天的香港处在一个转型和过渡 ...

恒指高开0.01%，报23385.18点；恒生科技指数涨0.52%。快手财报过后涨6.5%，哔哩哔哩、小米涨超 2%；理想汽车跌1.6%，美团跌0.9%。 ...

港股开盘，恒指开涨0.01%，科指开涨0.52%。小米集团(01810.HK)绩后开涨2.33%，公司Q1总收入创历 史新高。快手(01024.HK)绩后开涨6.46%，公司Q1同比增长10.9%。 ...