Workforce and Human Capital Management - At the end of 2024, the company employed approximately 47,000 people, with around 25,000 employees located outside the U.S.[109] - The workforce includes approximately 11,000 individuals engaged in research and development activities[109] - The company values integrity, excellence, and respect for people in its human capital management strategy[106] - The company is committed to fairness and nondiscrimination in employment practices, emphasizing the importance of diverse backgrounds and skills[110] - The company conducts regular confidential employee surveys to gather feedback and improve employee experience[108] - The company aims to foster a healthy work environment by implementing best-in-class safety practices and continuously improving safety performance[111] - The board of directors regularly engages with management to monitor human capital management initiatives[110] - The company believes its dedication to promoting inclusion strengthens its innovation capabilities[110] Research and Development - The company employed approximately 11,000 people in pharmaceutical research and development activities by the end of 2024[87] - The company focuses its internal pharmaceutical research on immunology, metabolism, neuroscience, and oncology[88] - The pharmaceutical development process can take over a decade from discovery to regulatory approval, with a very low probability of candidates becoming approved medicines[90] - The company collaborates with academic institutions and other pharmaceutical companies to enhance its research and development efforts[89] Manufacturing and Supply Chain - The company has undertaken significant manufacturing expansion initiatives across multiple locations, including North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ireland, Germany, and Indiana[97] - The company relies on China-based suppliers for portions of its supply chain, which poses risks due to potential geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions[97] - In 2024, demand for the company's incretin medicines exceeded production capacity, highlighting supply chain challenges[99] Quality and Safety - The company emphasizes a total commitment to quality across all operations, including research, manufacturing, and distribution[100] - The company emphasizes a holistic approach to safety, which it believes enhances its ability to fulfill its purpose of improving lives globally[111] Communication and Transparency - The company provides free access to its SEC filings, including Annual Reports on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, through its website[112] - The company utilizes its website and social media channels to disclose material information and communicate with investors[114]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company will participate in TD Cowen's 45th Annual Health Care Conference on March 4, 2025, with a focus on its oncology division [1] Company Overview - Eli Lilly is a medicine company that has been making significant discoveries for nearly 150 years, helping tens of millions globally [3] - The company is advancing new discoveries in various health challenges, including diabetes care, obesity treatment, Alzheimer's disease, immune system disorders, and cancer management [3] - Eli Lilly is committed to delivering innovative clinical trials that reflect global diversity and ensuring the accessibility and affordability of its medicines [3]

Group 1: Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly has consistently outperformed the market, with a stock increase of over 32% last year compared to the S&P 500's 23% [2] - Over the past five years, Eli Lilly's stock has risen nearly 500%, while the S&P 500 has increased by 82% [2] - The company reported a 45% increase in sales, reaching $13.5 billion in the last quarter of 2024 [3] - The GLP-1 diabetes drug Mounjaro generated $3.5 billion in revenue, with a year-over-year growth rate of 60% [4] - Zepbound, a GLP-1 weight loss treatment, brought in over $1.9 billion and has potential to become the top-selling product [4] - Eli Lilly is also developing retatrutide, which may offer greater weight loss benefits, with clinical trial data expected later this year [5] - Strong financial results and potential new drug data could lead to another year of significant outperformance against the S&P 500 in 2025 [6] Group 2: Summit Therapeutics - Summit Therapeutics experienced a remarkable stock increase of 584% last year, with a peak of 1,120% year-to-date at one point [7] - The company is expected to outperform the market again in 2025 due to an upcoming announcement of top-line data from its phase 3 Harmoni clinical trial for ivonescimab in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [8] - Positive results from a late-stage study of ivonescimab as a first-line treatment for NSCLC were reported by partner Akeso, showing better progression-free survival compared to Merck's Keytruda [9] - If late-stage results are positive, Summit plans to file for U.S. regulatory approval for ivonescimab as a second-line treatment for NSCLC [10] - The company is also advancing ivonescimab into additional studies for first-line therapy and as a monotherapy [10] Group 3: Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex Pharmaceuticals has performed well over the past decade, primarily due to its focus on cystic fibrosis (CF) treatments [12] - The company has recently received approvals for Casgevy for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia, marking a diversification in its product offerings [13] - In January 2025, Vertex received regulatory approval for Journavx, a non-opioid medicine for acute pain, indicating a shift away from reliance solely on CF [14] - Vertex is expected to make significant pipeline progress in various areas, including type 1 diabetes and kidney diseases, over the next 11 months [14] - The company has shown strong performance this year and is likely to continue delivering solid financial results and clinical advancements [15] - Vertex is considered an attractive long-term investment due to its strong track record and innovative capabilities [16]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly is considered a strong buy despite its high P/E ratio of over 70, primarily due to its accelerating growth driven by popular GLP-1 drugs and potential new treatments [3][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Eli Lilly's revenue increased by 45% in the last quarter of 2024, largely attributed to its GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together generated $5.4 billion in sales, accounting for 40% of total revenue [4]. - The company's current market capitalization is approximately $780 billion, with projections suggesting it could reach a $1 trillion market value within the next one to two years, requiring less than a 30% increase in stock price [9]. Group 2: Product Development and Growth Potential - Eli Lilly is experiencing strong demand for its GLP-1 drugs, leading to production shortages, prompting significant investments to increase manufacturing capacity in Lebanon, Indiana [5]. - The company is expected to release late-stage trial data for a new oral weight loss drug, orforglipron, by April, which has shown potential for helping patients lose around 15% of their body weight [7][8]. - Approval of orforglipron could enhance Eli Lilly's market position and expand its patient base, contributing to further growth [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Despite the high P/E ratio, it is suggested that investors should focus on the company's robust business model and drug portfolio rather than waiting for the P/E to decrease, as this could result in missed investment opportunities [10]. - Current shareholders are advised against selling their shares unless necessary, as the stock is expected to have significant long-term upside potential [11].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company has shown strong performance in its stock price following the announcement of its fourth-quarter results, with a notable focus on the sales outlook for 2025 and the performance of its key products, Mounjaro and Zepbound [1][2][22] Financial Performance - Lilly's fourth-quarter results included a sales outlook for 2025, projecting revenues between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 32% [2] - Earnings per share for 2025 are expected to be in the range of $22.50 to $24.00 [2] - The stock price has increased by 4.3% since the earnings report and has risen 15.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry which saw a 1.8% increase [1][15] Product Performance - Mounjaro and Zepbound have become significant revenue drivers, generating combined sales of $16.5 billion in 2024, accounting for approximately 36% of total revenues [4] - Despite strong initial demand, sales growth for Mounjaro and Zepbound faced challenges in the second half of 2024 due to supply and channel dynamics [5] - Zepbound has outperformed competitors in weight-loss studies, achieving an average weight loss of 20.2% compared to 13.7% for Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which may enhance its market position [9] Strategic Initiatives - Lilly plans to expand the market for Mounjaro and Zepbound by launching these drugs in new international markets throughout 2025 and increasing manufacturing capacity by at least 60% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [6][7] - The company has invested over $23 billion since 2020 to enhance manufacturing capacity for these products in the U.S. and Europe [6] Pipeline and Future Growth - Lilly has received approvals for several new drugs, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, which are expected to contribute to sales growth in 2025 [10][11] - The company is also advancing its pipeline in obesity, diabetes, and Alzheimer's, with several mid to late-stage readouts anticipated in 2025 [11] - Competition in the obesity market is intensifying, with expectations for the market to reach $100 billion by 2030 [12] Capital Allocation - In 2024, Lilly returned $3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, and announced a new $15 billion stock buyback plan along with a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend [24]

Group 1: Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly has shown strong performance over the past five years, with revenue growth exceeding 20% year over year for the last six quarters [2][3] - The company has a robust product lineup, including diabetes and weight loss medications Mounjaro and Zepbound, although recent sales growth has not met analyst expectations [3][4] - Eli Lilly is actively innovating, with promising candidates in its pipeline, including a gene therapy for deafness and a late-stage weight loss treatment called retatrutide [4][5] - The company has increased its dividend payouts by nearly 103% over the past five years, making it an attractive option for both growth and income investors [6] Group 2: Sarepta Therapeutics - Sarepta Therapeutics focuses on developing treatments for rare diseases, particularly Duchenne muscular dystrophy, with several drugs already on the market [7] - The key product, Elevidys, received full FDA approval for ambulatory patients and accelerated approval for non-ambulatory patients, significantly boosting the company's financial performance [8][9] - Sarepta Therapeutics anticipates net revenue of $1.8 billion in 2024, a 49% increase from $1.2 billion in 2023, driven by Elevidys and other pipeline candidates [10] - The company has over 40 candidates in its pipeline, including therapies for Limb-Girdle muscular dystrophy, positioning it for strong long-term growth [11]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's fourth-quarter performance exceeded expectations with adjusted earnings of $5.32 per share, surpassing the projected $4.95, while revenue was $13.5 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $13.6 billion due to lower price realization for Mounjaro [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a 45% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by strong demand for its obesity drug Zepbound, which generated $1.9 billion in sales. Mounjaro sales increased by 60% year-over-year to $3.5 billion, and Verzenio sales rose by 36% to $1.6 billion, although both Zepbound and Mounjaro sales fell short of consensus estimates [3][4]. - Eli Lilly's gross margin improved by 90 basis points to 83.2% in Q4, contributing to earnings of $5.32 per share, more than double the $2.49 from the same quarter last year [4]. Future Outlook - The company projects its revenue for the upcoming year to be between $58 billion and $61 billion, with a gross margin between 41.5% and 43.5%, and adjusted earnings expected to range from $22.50 to $24.00 [4]. - Analysts have set an average price estimate of $980 for Eli Lilly stock, indicating a potential 12% upside from its current level of $870, supported by strong sales growth and a robust outlook [7]. Market Performance - Eli Lilly's stock has delivered a 50% return year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 28% gain during the same period. The stock has consistently generated better returns than the broader market over the past four years [5]. - The stock's current trading at 17 times trailing revenues is above its average price-to-sales ratio of 14 times over the last three years, suggesting room for growth in valuation [7].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's Omvoh (mirikizumab) demonstrates long-term efficacy and safety for treating moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, with over 90% of patients maintaining clinical remission after two years of continuous treatment [1][3][6] Clinical Outcomes - More than 90% of patients who were in clinical remission at one year sustained it with two years of continuous treatment [1] - Nearly 90% of patients who achieved endoscopic response at one year maintained it at two years [1] - Among patients treated in VIVID-2, 87.6% maintained endoscopic response, defined by a ≥50% reduction from baseline in Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) total score [4] - Among patients who were in endoscopic remission at one year, 78.6% maintained endoscopic remission at two years [4] - 60.8% of patients not in clinical remission at one year gained clinical remission during the second year of treatment [4] - 35.4% of patients not in endoscopic remission at one year gained endoscopic remission during the second year of treatment [4] Safety Profile - The long-term safety profile of Omvoh was consistent with known safety data, with 6.8% of patients reporting serious adverse events during the second year of treatment [3] - Only 0.8% of patients discontinued treatment due to adverse events [3] Regulatory Status - Omvoh was approved by the FDA for the treatment of moderately to severely active Crohn's disease in January 2025 [5] - The European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use issued a positive opinion for Omvoh in December 2024 [5] - Omvoh is also approved in 44 countries for treating moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis [5] Ongoing Research - Omvoh is the first IL-23p19 antagonist to show long-term, sustained efficacy and safety for both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis [6] - Ongoing trials are evaluating the long-term efficacy and safety of Omvoh in pediatric patients and adults, as well as a Phase 4 real-world evidence study [6] Clinical Trial Program - The VIVID-1 study was a Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study that established the efficacy of Omvoh [7] - Participants who completed VIVID-1 were eligible for VIVID-2, which focused on the long-term effects of Omvoh [7] - A modified non-responder imputation method indicated that 81.8% of endoscopic responders at year one maintained endoscopic response at two years [7]

Core Insights - Oliver Rodzianko is an investment analyst with a focus on the technology sector, emphasizing value principles and resilient management [1] - The areas of expertise include AI, semiconductors, software, and renewable energy, targeting companies with lasting competitive advantages [1] - Rodzianko employs a value trading strategy at inflection points, typically holding investments for one to two years [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach is characterized by no leverage and no short interest, aiming for a fair value exit [1] - A wealth-preservation portfolio is modeled, incorporating advanced risk-mitigation strategies to navigate recessions and market crashes [1] Rating System - Strong Buy: Anticipates annual returns of 30% or above for value trading and 20% or above for long-term investments [1] - Buy: Expects annual returns of 22.5% or above for value trading and 15% or above for long-term investments [1] - Hold: Projects annual returns of 15% or above for value trading and 10% or above for long-term investments [1] - Sell: Foresees annual returns of at least 0%, generally below 10% for both value trading and long-term investments [1] - Strong Sell: Anticipates zero or negative annual returns for both value trading and long-term investments [1]

Group 1 - Eli Lilly and Company reported Q4 total revenues of $13.53 billion, reflecting a 45% year-on-year growth [2] - The net income for Q4 was $4.8 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at $5.32, or $4.88 on a non-adjusted basis [2] - The company provides detailed financial models and research for investors, including product sales forecasts and market analysis [2]